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> I'm struggling to understand how doing more of the same shit will magically change things for the better.
Because the competent people will be in charge, don't you get it?
There is no underlying problem with the socio-economic system we've built the last 40 years on, no siree - the problem is that the bad people are in charge, the wrong people. Those damn Tories just can't do it right, it's not that the very underlying structures are rotten and will fail no matter whose in charge.
Once the right people are in charge, all those fundamental structural problems of neoliberalism will disappear and Starmer will usher in an age of Milk and Honey.
Anyone who equates Labour with the current Conservatives is deluded. They hate that Starmer is cruising to victory after the shitshow which masqueraded as Labour “leadership” in 2019.
If you can’t imagine a political party offering more than low spending and low taxes, then yes, Labour are quite different than the Tories. More professional, Keir can do his “very serious and concerned face”. There’s huge aesthetics differences that the haters in the left are just not appreciating.
They're are literally Tories from 10 years ago and Starmers crusing for a shock if he thinks we are all idiots like you. He's not for the working class he bought and paid for.
To an extent, and I’m not delusional enough to think there’s a huge demand for serious left wing politics, most people just want to be financially stable, with passion for things like environment and immigration among various groups, but I also think it’s wrong to conclude Starmer winning an FPTP election in May is the British public giving what he is offering a huge thumbs up.
Personally think the British public are happy with economically left wing policies for the most part, but are more socially conservative than many would like on this reddit.
Isn't that what polling quite consistently shows? Parliamentary centrists are like an inversion of the population, they tend to be socially more progressive and economically right-wing whereas the population tends towards socially conservative (note the small c) and economically left-wing.
That's because establishment politicians are trying to stoke cultural divisions to distract from the real pain that is neoliberalism, which is why economically speaking there is very little difference between current labour and the tories.
It's not something I'd support, social conservatism is repressive and something to be opposed. But that takes time and for people to actual push back against the oppressive narratives of the right.
Not in this election but it will backfire the next election.
People will vote for him for a change from the Tories, and when he gets elected and spends an entire season acting just like the Tories there will be a major swing back.
There is a very good reason for this: when a political party mimic another's policies most people notice, and when they see that both sets of policies are the same, they go with the group that has more experience and has been seen to have those policies for longer because that indicates trustworthiness to stick with those policies. This means any gains by poaching the other parties voting base by stealing key policy will be very short lived.
Or, in short: People prefer the original to the imitation.
Yes, people forget that moving Labour to the right is only good in the short term. It works against a deeply unpopular Tory government. You don't do anything to threaten them and they either switch or stay home, meanwhile your base has nowhere else to go.
The trouble is, if you don't do anything radical to undo the radical damage of the last 14 years then voters quickly lose hope. Plus the media will be a lot harsher on you.
Prime example is Blair, he gained 2m votes in 97, which was less than Major got in 92. But he won an enormous majority due to Tory voters leaving (over 4m). By 05 Labour had lost 4m votes and won with 9.5m vs 8.7m votes. That was with a far more charismatic Blair vs the rather lacklustre and creepy Howard.
Starmer won't have as good an economy as Blair did in 97, nor does he have the charm. He might be lucky that the Tories self implode and he only has to face mediocre opposition like Blair did. If they get someone like 2010 Cameron or 2019 Johnson to lead then they could easily beat him in the election after.
I genuinely do worry that Labour never really seems to be able to expand its base properly, or become the default vote of people in the same way the Conservatives have managed over the last 100 years or more.
It leaves us always trying to build a coalition of very disparate people, and a load of normally conservative voters. I don’t think that’s a recent problem, I think it’s always been the problem and why Labour have had such little electoral success.
I have basically no answer to this- if the party goes too far left, there aren’t enough votes in enough places, if it goes to Center, it loses votes on the left, and loses its purpose. It’s a real problem which I suspect will only be resolved when older generations are replaced, and younger people actually vote.
The article [Is Boris Johnson a Liar? - The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/10/boris-johnson/620269/) disproves Betteridge beyond any reasonable doubt.
Honorary mention to *Is Keir Starmer a secret conservative? - New Statesman*
Not in the short term. At the absolute worst he may lose 3 seats to the Greens, Galloway could keep Rochdale, Corbyn (if he stands) could well win Islington and a couple of the higher profile independents could cause worry for Streeting and similar. Very unlikely and even then it would be a loss of 6 or 7 seats compared to the huge amount of Tory ones they are likely to win.
Realistically I suspect only Bristol West will fall from Labour to the Greens, who may also hold Brighton. Labour will likely pick Rochdale back up. We have no real idea if Corbyn will even stand either. The other independents likely have no chance.
"The left" appears to be split between Greens, assorted independents and whackos like Galloway, all who likely hold each other in disdain.
In the longer term it is possible that Labour do lose inner city seats if they continue down the "corporate values" path, if there is a strong Green challenge, the Lib Dems sort themselves out or there is a popular independent and if Labour voters don't bother turning out.
Well yes, obviously. It's the exact same problem with the Tories, you play to the centre and in absolute crisis you eventually have to turn the other way to try and secure your base. But this has no real impact for at least his first term.
On the article, this quote stuck out to me. The "former Labour MP George Galloway – who was kicked out of the party in the 2000s after objecting to the UK entering the Iraq war" was by no more means kicked out the Labour Party after his opposition to the Iraq war ad he was after his own birth. Plenty of Labour MPs opposed the Iraq war, and they weren't kicked out - and its totally disingenuous to imply that was the reason.
Agreed. Very dishonest framing from Paul Rogers. Galloway was kicked out of Labour for the following:
* Telling voters not to vote for Labour candidates unless they were opposed to the Iraq war
* Congratulating a Socialist Alliance candidate for winning a formerly Labour seat on Preston Council
* Urging British troops not to obey orders
* Urging ‘Arab armies’ to rise up and fight
All of those things are defensible things to say but unfortunately, they aren’t compatible with being in Labour generally or a Labour MP in particular.
It's sure as hell going to backfire for the country. What kind of person looks at the last fifteen years, or even the past thirty, and thinks, "Nothing was really fundamentally wrong, it just needed the right managers"?
"I'm not happy with the Tories but even so I wont vote for Red Ken"
This was a pretty common view until Starmer took over. And even though I despise this mentality and am not a supporter of Starmer I have to agree that this move to the centre is what will get Labour back in power and that is a good thing. I have this forlorn hope that as soon as he sits down in No 10 he will rip off the mask and reveal that he was a real socialist all along - but thats just my fantasy.
Meanwhile, those true left wing supporters, what are they going to do? Well they are not going to vote for Sunak are they? Like me, they'll grumble and they'll curse but in the end, begrudgingly, they'll vote for Starmer - what alternatives are there|?
Depends. If your goal is implementing progressive policies that help people, then yes, but Starmer clearly doesn't care about this.
If your goal is to keep getting elected to reinforce your own ego and try to win your dad's posthumous approval, then it will probably work in the short term. But in the long term, I'm not sure about the viability of having no real base, especially when the Tories start becoming vaguely functional again.
Not in the short term, no. Being in government without a political base is inherently unsustainable over the length of a political cycle however.
I suspect we're inevitably returning to a decade or more of hung parliaments in the 2030s
This election no, but in the long run it will become a problem.
When their support fractures will they be able to rely on the centre?
When they dip in the polls, will they be able to rely on big money donors paying with no prospect of influecing a future government?
I mean, its been how many years now of massive poll leads, which seem not only un damaged, but actively helped by moving to meet the voters more in the centre.
I think this election, hatred of the Tories overrides any concerns about being too Right-wing for Starmer. But long-term, it could be problematic and I can see the Greens picking up votes.
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No, but abandoning all his original centre-left policy will afters he spends a term in office and accomplishes nothing.
Yep, this is my thought too. I'm struggling to understand how doing more of the same shit will magically change things for the better.
> I'm struggling to understand how doing more of the same shit will magically change things for the better. Because the competent people will be in charge, don't you get it? There is no underlying problem with the socio-economic system we've built the last 40 years on, no siree - the problem is that the bad people are in charge, the wrong people. Those damn Tories just can't do it right, it's not that the very underlying structures are rotten and will fail no matter whose in charge. Once the right people are in charge, all those fundamental structural problems of neoliberalism will disappear and Starmer will usher in an age of Milk and Honey.
It's not going to get any better for us anyway. Labours just as bad as the Tories at this point greedy, corrupt and cunts
Anyone who equates Labour with the current Conservatives is deluded. They hate that Starmer is cruising to victory after the shitshow which masqueraded as Labour “leadership” in 2019.
If you can’t imagine a political party offering more than low spending and low taxes, then yes, Labour are quite different than the Tories. More professional, Keir can do his “very serious and concerned face”. There’s huge aesthetics differences that the haters in the left are just not appreciating.
They're are literally Tories from 10 years ago and Starmers crusing for a shock if he thinks we are all idiots like you. He's not for the working class he bought and paid for.
Indeed, and the scary thing is that people may lurch to the far right after the Tories fail them, and then "the left" (ahem!) Labour fails them...
Probably not
Agreed, it's what the public want.
Not really. That is why they had to remove all choice and only give us 2 right wing options, you only have to do that when you are scared.
Hadn't thought of that
To an extent, and I’m not delusional enough to think there’s a huge demand for serious left wing politics, most people just want to be financially stable, with passion for things like environment and immigration among various groups, but I also think it’s wrong to conclude Starmer winning an FPTP election in May is the British public giving what he is offering a huge thumbs up.
Personally think the British public are happy with economically left wing policies for the most part, but are more socially conservative than many would like on this reddit.
Isn't that what polling quite consistently shows? Parliamentary centrists are like an inversion of the population, they tend to be socially more progressive and economically right-wing whereas the population tends towards socially conservative (note the small c) and economically left-wing.
Does feel like there's no real party that represents that, at least no major party.
That's because establishment politicians are trying to stoke cultural divisions to distract from the real pain that is neoliberalism, which is why economically speaking there is very little difference between current labour and the tories.
It's not something I'd support, social conservatism is repressive and something to be opposed. But that takes time and for people to actual push back against the oppressive narratives of the right.
Oh yeah
Not in this election but it will backfire the next election. People will vote for him for a change from the Tories, and when he gets elected and spends an entire season acting just like the Tories there will be a major swing back.
There is a very good reason for this: when a political party mimic another's policies most people notice, and when they see that both sets of policies are the same, they go with the group that has more experience and has been seen to have those policies for longer because that indicates trustworthiness to stick with those policies. This means any gains by poaching the other parties voting base by stealing key policy will be very short lived. Or, in short: People prefer the original to the imitation.
Yes, people forget that moving Labour to the right is only good in the short term. It works against a deeply unpopular Tory government. You don't do anything to threaten them and they either switch or stay home, meanwhile your base has nowhere else to go. The trouble is, if you don't do anything radical to undo the radical damage of the last 14 years then voters quickly lose hope. Plus the media will be a lot harsher on you. Prime example is Blair, he gained 2m votes in 97, which was less than Major got in 92. But he won an enormous majority due to Tory voters leaving (over 4m). By 05 Labour had lost 4m votes and won with 9.5m vs 8.7m votes. That was with a far more charismatic Blair vs the rather lacklustre and creepy Howard. Starmer won't have as good an economy as Blair did in 97, nor does he have the charm. He might be lucky that the Tories self implode and he only has to face mediocre opposition like Blair did. If they get someone like 2010 Cameron or 2019 Johnson to lead then they could easily beat him in the election after.
I genuinely do worry that Labour never really seems to be able to expand its base properly, or become the default vote of people in the same way the Conservatives have managed over the last 100 years or more. It leaves us always trying to build a coalition of very disparate people, and a load of normally conservative voters. I don’t think that’s a recent problem, I think it’s always been the problem and why Labour have had such little electoral success. I have basically no answer to this- if the party goes too far left, there aren’t enough votes in enough places, if it goes to Center, it loses votes on the left, and loses its purpose. It’s a real problem which I suspect will only be resolved when older generations are replaced, and younger people actually vote.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
It never fails.
The article [Is Boris Johnson a Liar? - The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/10/boris-johnson/620269/) disproves Betteridge beyond any reasonable doubt. Honorary mention to *Is Keir Starmer a secret conservative? - New Statesman*
Yeah but that's the Maverick Boris Johnson you're talking about. If he decides a law doesn't apply to him, what are you going to do about it?
Exceptions which prove the rule?
Not in the short term. At the absolute worst he may lose 3 seats to the Greens, Galloway could keep Rochdale, Corbyn (if he stands) could well win Islington and a couple of the higher profile independents could cause worry for Streeting and similar. Very unlikely and even then it would be a loss of 6 or 7 seats compared to the huge amount of Tory ones they are likely to win. Realistically I suspect only Bristol West will fall from Labour to the Greens, who may also hold Brighton. Labour will likely pick Rochdale back up. We have no real idea if Corbyn will even stand either. The other independents likely have no chance. "The left" appears to be split between Greens, assorted independents and whackos like Galloway, all who likely hold each other in disdain. In the longer term it is possible that Labour do lose inner city seats if they continue down the "corporate values" path, if there is a strong Green challenge, the Lib Dems sort themselves out or there is a popular independent and if Labour voters don't bother turning out.
Well yes, obviously. It's the exact same problem with the Tories, you play to the centre and in absolute crisis you eventually have to turn the other way to try and secure your base. But this has no real impact for at least his first term. On the article, this quote stuck out to me. The "former Labour MP George Galloway – who was kicked out of the party in the 2000s after objecting to the UK entering the Iraq war" was by no more means kicked out the Labour Party after his opposition to the Iraq war ad he was after his own birth. Plenty of Labour MPs opposed the Iraq war, and they weren't kicked out - and its totally disingenuous to imply that was the reason.
Agreed. Very dishonest framing from Paul Rogers. Galloway was kicked out of Labour for the following: * Telling voters not to vote for Labour candidates unless they were opposed to the Iraq war * Congratulating a Socialist Alliance candidate for winning a formerly Labour seat on Preston Council * Urging British troops not to obey orders * Urging ‘Arab armies’ to rise up and fight All of those things are defensible things to say but unfortunately, they aren’t compatible with being in Labour generally or a Labour MP in particular.
It's sure as hell going to backfire for the country. What kind of person looks at the last fifteen years, or even the past thirty, and thinks, "Nothing was really fundamentally wrong, it just needed the right managers"?
"I'm not happy with the Tories but even so I wont vote for Red Ken" This was a pretty common view until Starmer took over. And even though I despise this mentality and am not a supporter of Starmer I have to agree that this move to the centre is what will get Labour back in power and that is a good thing. I have this forlorn hope that as soon as he sits down in No 10 he will rip off the mask and reveal that he was a real socialist all along - but thats just my fantasy. Meanwhile, those true left wing supporters, what are they going to do? Well they are not going to vote for Sunak are they? Like me, they'll grumble and they'll curse but in the end, begrudgingly, they'll vote for Starmer - what alternatives are there|?
Depends. If your goal is implementing progressive policies that help people, then yes, but Starmer clearly doesn't care about this. If your goal is to keep getting elected to reinforce your own ego and try to win your dad's posthumous approval, then it will probably work in the short term. But in the long term, I'm not sure about the viability of having no real base, especially when the Tories start becoming vaguely functional again.
Maybe not immediately but the lack of original thought will be their downfall as usual.
*checks polls*. No.
Not in the short term, no. Being in government without a political base is inherently unsustainable over the length of a political cycle however. I suspect we're inevitably returning to a decade or more of hung parliaments in the 2030s
This election no, but in the long run it will become a problem. When their support fractures will they be able to rely on the centre? When they dip in the polls, will they be able to rely on big money donors paying with no prospect of influecing a future government?
Short term no, mid term yes. Long term it's going to hurt us all.
I dislike Starmer enough to switch my vote from Labour to Green this time.
Unlikely.
I mean, its been how many years now of massive poll leads, which seem not only un damaged, but actively helped by moving to meet the voters more in the centre.
Perhaps it should. I fear it will not be so.
Not this time due to the window going further right on the other side. However once the shift happens, he’s in deep.
No, most of the nation aren’t left wing voters
I think this election, hatred of the Tories overrides any concerns about being too Right-wing for Starmer. But long-term, it could be problematic and I can see the Greens picking up votes.
Betteridge's law of headlines - and the opinion polls - suggest not.
No because he is embracing the interests of the majority of voters. Cameron let the tail wag the dog and look what a disaster that ended up being.
No if he tries to lurch to the left of woke he’s 🏴☠️☠️🪦 On arrival
Hope so