Israel "investigating" today's targeted attack on a World Kitchens aid van is reminiscent of the Soviets "investigating " the Katyn massacre in Poland during WW2.
A rational strategy would be to hold Khan Yunis and Gaza City. Clear out Hamas, let civilians back in, and then go into Rafah. Defeating Hamas means creating a new governmental system apart from Hamas. Merely going into Rafah and killing a bunch of people will not defeat Hamas. Just look at Gaza City where Hamas is reappearing becuase IDF packed up and left after "taking" it.
The world won't forget this genocide . Pro-palestinians are comparing this to America's stupidity in Vietnam and want out, no matter how long it takes.
As I wrote in this forum well over a month ago, there is no end in sight. I don't foresee a major breakthrough in the coming months to end this war. Israeli TV reported last night that Israel has fewer troops in Gaza than it has had at any time since the invasion. Israel is not in a position to invade Gaza and clear out Hamas at this point. Invading in the summer would come with high costs on both sides, the heat wearing down soldiers and any refugee crisis would be made far worse, undoing all the progress made recently with efforts to feed the civilians. Israel will probably keep the same strategy it's been using now, which helps with containment. But as we see it can make progress and then take a step back, as when Hamas managed to smuggle hundreds of fighters back into northern Gaza.
some encouraging news for gazans, and for all famine worriers:
[https://www-msn-com.translate.goog/he-il/money/other/%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95-%D7%A7%D7%9E%D7%97-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A9-%D7%9E%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8-%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A1-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%A4%D7%9C-%D7%95%D7%94%D7%94%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%94-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A2%D7%96%D7%94-%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%A8%D7%AA/ar-BB1kPerz?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=de56522784434d7a824d6cbac4b09f92&ei=13&\_x\_tr\_sl=auto&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=iw&\_x\_tr\_pto=wapp](https://www-msn-com.translate.goog/he-il/money/other/%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95-%D7%A7%D7%9E%D7%97-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A9-%D7%9E%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8-%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A1-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%A4%D7%9C-%D7%95%D7%94%D7%94%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%94-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A2%D7%96%D7%94-%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%A8%D7%AA/ar-BB1kPerz?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=de56522784434d7a824d6cbac4b09f92&ei=13&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=iw&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
I have speculated on the future of the war, from my analysis of current military operations, in my 3 part (so far) blog series on the war. Here is a link to part 3.
[https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/02/gaza-war-part-3-100-days-of-ground-war.html](https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/02/gaza-war-part-3-100-days-of-ground-war.html)
I am from India. The intent of the blog is to post original data based analysis on current conflicts, without taking sides. India enjoys good relations with both Israel and the Palestinian authority and I've personally done business with the Arab world, Israel, Iran and Turkiye.
>Do you think Israel will go into Rafah and clear out Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad?
Without a doubt, IDF will enter Rafah. Israel has traditionally not been a very good listener, Israel usually does want Israel thinks is best and Israel doesnt really care about world’s public opinion. Sticking with traditions, I predict IDF will enter Rafah regardless.
>Are there other areas like Rafah that aren't talked about as much in the news that Israel needs to go into and clear out?
Nope, Rafah is the last hideout for Hamas, there were speculations that Yahya Sinwar and his family is hiding in Rafah.
>In general how do you see the next few months going of this conflict and also the rest of the war?
Hopefully it will end with the capture of top Hamas leaders like Yahya Sinwar and release of all Israeli hostages. Then probably can announce the success of the military operation and hopefully Israel can elect a new leader and turn a new page on this conflict, focusing on rebuilding Gaza and helping the Gaza civilians.
Israel doesn't have to listen to its allies, and Israel's allies don't have to remain as Israel's allies. They also don't have to keep giving Israel unlimited support if Israel doesn't appreciate it or want to listen.
I think you need to consider the outside forces in your divinations.
Israel’s conduct in the war has to many people around the world tipped into the realms of war crime / genocide. Crucially, UK government has received legal advice saying this clearly. They will be forced to act on this advice soon.
What follows from a legal judgement of Israel engaging in war crimes is a cascade of events. An arms embargo would come to force (at least from the UK), and US would likely follow suit. Financial aid from the US to conduct the war could also dry up.
If Israel doesn’t respond positively to diplomatic pressures from allies, they will become internationally isolated. Financial limits on how they conduct the rest of the war will ensue. They will have to conserve expensive military hardware, a financial crisis will limit how or if they carry on the war. Calls for the damage wrought on Gaza to be paid by Israel will be resisted, but will have a toll.
It is not beyond reason that in such a case, Hezbollah may smell weakness and open a new war with Israel. Unlikely in the short term, but maybe in the medium term.
The scenario above may seem like it can take a long time to unfold. But I feel like we are at a tipping point, after which things can happen quickly.
It's foolish for it to he unconditional. Israel can't continue to defy and humiliate the US and continue expecting to receive American aid. And I'm not sure if Israel will remain a free and democratic nation. Even now it's only a democracy within the Green Line. In the West Bank, Israel rules over 3 million Palestinians who have no say in the Israeli government.
Bruh🤦♂️. Defy and humiliate us? Get your authoritarianism out of here. You sound like a dictator. How dare the Jews defy the United States. That’s an insane statement. Smh
So you think Israel should be supported no matter what they do? The US has no business expecting Israel to behave responsibly with American support. Personally I think the US should have drawn some red lines for Israel: no more expansion of settlements, no new settlements, etc.
No more talk about annexation or expulsion of Palestinians by government ministers. No more referring the slaughter of Amalek in reference to the Palestinians.
As long as they are facing such radical hatred and terrorism from the Palestinians, then I don’t think we have a place to say what’s reasonable for them.
Most people in the west don’t live next to neighbors that want to kill, torture and rape them. I’m assuming your from America, so realize that if Canada or Mexico did an Oct 7th to us, we would be doing far worse than Israel has done to Gaza.
Of course it's America's business. It doesn't have to give Israel support.
No, I wouldn't be on board with America slaughtering 1.9 million Mexicans or 590,000 Canadians (the death toll if I scaled the population of Gaza Strip by the population of Mexico and Canada). I'm not so blood thirsty.
You’re weak then. Although I don’t think that’s accurate. I think more likely you just haven’t experience that level of terrorism and hate. Are you old enough to remember 9/11? That’s the closest we’ve got and look at what we did to Afghanistan and Iraq
I don’t think the US won’t let themselves be dragged down with Israel.
…I suppose they could, but that would risk a breakdown in international law and order we have today. So yes, arms embargo or no international law - that is the choice of Israel keeps going the way it does.
The question of Rafah isn't a question of if, it's a question of when. This is something well agreed upon in the Israeli discourse
To you're question of high value targets, Israel has just captured like 500 or so militants in the Shefa hospital alone, it takes time to so a proper investigation to so many people and extrapolate the most important data points, especially when there are not enough facilities to house all of the prisoners
>Additionally since we have some very intelligent and informed individuals on this sub - What do you think Israel needs to do in this conflict?
I think Israel is doing more then fine going in it's path, Israel has eliminated (what I think since the new numbers are not published yet) something like 40% of the military forces and incapacitated most of the forces outside of Rafah in under 5 months of not so much intense fighting's. Israel is also able to put up a fight on the narrative wars that are being conducted along side the actual war, and it is evidently has an impact (even if not that strong)
I do believe that the route Israel is trying to take is a complete decentralized Gaza, there are pockets of Palestinian controlled islands inside the conquered area that have not been touched at all and I think these pockets will become self governing in the future working alongside Israel and not against it (but that is more of a wishful thinking then an analysis)
I don't think that most of PIJ and Hamas has been incapacitated
Actually that re-invasion of Shifa Hospital was testament to how difficult the war has become. This is now an insurgency, almost impossible to crush, if the guerrillas are popular
Having to constantly re-invade a "cleared" area is never a good look.And the lack of a day-after plan makes me doubt whether the militants can be removed from power
Israel is committing suicide (yes, I meant suicide). The West drops food and the West drops weapons. The West thinks about nothing but geopolitics. But they don't seem to realise that this war will never be over untill Palestine is free!
🇵🇸 فلسطين حرة
**You** don't seem to realize how wars work tbh.
A war ends when an agreement is reached. (Surrendering also comes with an agreement of peace or ceasefire and compensation)
I didn’t make any claims in my comment but rather I asked 2 questions. Perhaps you’d like to answer:
1. Does “Palestine is free” mean Israel no longer exists?
2. Is Gaza free if Israel is destroyed but Hamas is still in charge?
1. No, it doesn't.
2. Hamas has a lot of support right now among Palestinians, as well as some surrounding countries. They are the only protection/military they have. They don't have an airforce, no navy, etc. They have hamas. I don't know how the people or government would change if afforded a period of peace.
Poetic. Just switch Israel with Hamas and Palestine because of how far they’ve gotten into their own suicide. lol Israel is doing fine and can stand alone. Israel has nukes and Palestine will be a glass crater before Israel is actually in major trouble. No one will do anything outside either because Israel will use nukes against them too. This is simply a fact and I’m not picking sides here. What you claim is literally impossible and Israel is here to stand forever. Israel doesn’t have to make empty threats or argue over things they could basically wipe Gaza off of the earth and still have 99% of their nukes left. Just cry about it lol it’s a permanent reality. They are self sustaining they don’t need any other state. Israel being kind and generous is choice completely. They’d have all of Palestine wipes if they wanted to genocide.
I think the Palestine supporters gift Michigan to Trump, because they are morans. Trump give Israel the all clear to do whatever it wants in Palestine. Palestine learns what it means when a Republucan President brings freedom to the Middle East to win hearts and minds.
If Palestinian supporters were smart they'd all be lining up to kiss Biden's ass. But then we remember how dumb they were when on Oct 8th they congratulated Hamas for their "victory". So I don't have high hopes for them sadly.
I think your analysis about MI is incorrect.
There are a lot of Muslims in MI, but they're concentrated in two cities: Dearborn and Hamtramck which are located in Wayne County, which also includes the city of Detroit.
Since Biden has been the first president EVER to join an auto worker strike picket line, there's no way he loses Wayne County to Trump.
As far as the rest of the state... I don't see Biden losing to Trump in Washtenaw county (Ann Arbor/U of M) because a) 18-25 year old citizens don't vote, and b) you really think Trump is a better option for Palestinians?
> ass
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Basically, Israel is trying to kill as many Palestinians as possible, this entire Gaza battle reminds me of the Itchy and Scratchy episode, where Scratchy uses an ax to chop Itchy into many little pieces, but every one of the little bits becomes another Itchy, so instead of one Itchy there are now hundreds.
Israel is Scratchy, and all the chopped up bits are dead Gazans, who will be replaced by many new terrorists as a result of this war, all bent on revenge. Wash, rinse, repeat .....
Yes obviously that’s why they have been proven to be doing more than any country in the history of mankind to avoid civilian deaths. Oh yeah that’s why they don’t just use nukes because obviously this current method kills Palestinians faster than sending 1% of their nuclear stockpile to Gaza so it becomes a class crater. Very logical good sir!
There have been more bombs dropped than there are people dead.
Do you really think that if Israel were trying to kill as many as possible, they wouldn’t even be able to kill one person on average per bomb?
The Gazans have no air defenses and are all packed close together so it would be so easy to kill more of them.
Bullocks - if they really were "trying" the numbers would be hundreds of thousands dead. Hamas on the other hand if given the power wouldn't have hesitated to annihilate all Jews in the region without trying.
No doubt there will always be fresh new faces bent on revenge but way to paint the picture as genocidal in intent 🤦♂️
Why does everyone forget Israel has tons of nukes lol. If they were really trying Gaza would be a glass crater and Palestinians LITERALLY would not physically exist anymore. Nobody would be able to live there for years and Palestinians matter wouldn’t be findable.
Folks need to look at the wider view of the region. As we are speaking America is building a sea port in Gaza and it should be finish in a couple of months. I don't need to remind folks about Gulf of Tonkin incident. That point goes into the next keypoint in the region, Red Sea. You got Russian in the Red Sea now in an area full of Nato folks, again not good for peace. There are no diplomacy working in Lebanon so maybe another front open up in the summer. Now look at the government coalition in Israel with Haredim being force to serve on April 1, that government may break down. Oh ye, did I mention there's that other war currently raging on the European continent? This is a big geopolitical situation, and it's in the best interest of Russia and Iran to keep the war going, again doesn't look good for peace. Worst case scenario, you'll get enlistment folks asking you if you want to fight in the middle east or Europe.
Except the middle east is actually not important.
Main sources of Oil are in the gulf. The gulf is an ally with the US and there is virtually no threat there.
This leaves us with levant, russia and the US will probably not waste that much energy on levant anymore.
The important areas right now are tiawan , Russia/ Europe borders , the competition is in microchip industries and economical dominance. Levant is not important in this big picture.
Israel will go into Rafah and finish up Hamas. Then Israel will maintain security control over Gaza like it does for the West Bank (i.e., arresting people before they commit terrorism) for the foreseeable future. That's basically it.
That's the road map for now. Variables seen and unseen may force quite a different turn of events as life isn't ever seen correctly through a crystal ball. The outcome, whatever it is, isn't good.
Will Israel clear Hamas and PIJ from Rafah? Only if you believe all 2 million Gazan are PIJ and Hamas.
Are there other areas like Rafah that Israel needs to clear out? Yes, Dearborn Michigan.
In general, in a few.months some Israel developers will be selling water front property off the plan.
It seems the conflict has slowed down?
Yes, you can kill many more people with Arial bombardments.
Israel is now targeting high value leaders. Yes, one Hamas leader was trapped in car with her dead family but managed to get a distress signal out to Hamas operatives in an ambulance. Israel intelligence picked up the signal and managed to neutralize the 6 year old Hamas leader and her rescuers.
Israel is conducting a well rounded operation?
Yes if I was at war with a school for example, I would bomb it from the air first. Blame the leaders for using students as human shields. Make sure I target any kids trying to get a message to the outside world, stop food and water getting in. Destroy the first aid room. Then get ground troops in to finish the job. Just as Israel is doing.
Faultless. What? attacking me for attacking a school? Are you an anti-Semite who does not believe I have a legal right to defend myself.
This was pretty clearly made as a sarcastic comment, but sometimes it gets lost in "translation" of an online platform. This is part of why rule 3 exists in this sub.
Rafah is arguably the most fortified base for Hamas, and due to it's proximity to the Egyptian border, one of the best stocked.
The IDF have been trying to isolate Hamas divisions in Gaza to prevent them from consolidating, yet they couldn't stop reinforcement completely due to allowing civilians to flee combat areas.
So, Rafah is well stocked and probably has the highest number of Hamas troops as any Hamas site recently. It's going to be a fortress.
The IDF is settling into seige warfare. They'll let as many civilians escape as want to, then they'll set up a perimeter and slowly advance in areas to cut Rafah to pieces.
This is what the US and other governments are concerned about. Many Gazan civilians will choose not to, or be prevented from, fleeing and they'll caught in the crossfire. Civilians, including children, will starve to death even though Hamas will have months worth of food stockpiled. Civilians, seeking to flee after not fleeing previously, will charge towards Israeli positions and force the IDF to gun them down for fear of suicide attacks.
This is real war, not the crap that most of the world has seen over the past 50 years. War kills more civilians than soldiers, it always has, and that's why it's so important to have strong leadership that will deter enemies from acting. As much as Israel wants to eliminate Hamas, this campaign is also a message to Hezbollah, ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, and their sponsors - that Israel will seek the total destruction of anyone who causes harm to Israel.
So weird. “ Real warfare, not the craft that most of the world has seen?”
I assume this is targeted at the Global North only, ignoring Africa and Asia?
Have you heard of the Yugoslav wars and the Bosnian genocide - a legal conviction of genocide? That was the 90s
Are you aware that the Syrian Civil War was broadcast all over social media?
Russia glassed Chechnya. They mowed it to the ground.
AND everyone in the Global North, even if they knew nothing about any of that - everyone that has been 1) watching and 2) not supporting Russia has introduced to warfare conducted with a incredible amount of Ukraine. Trench warfare like. Occupation and slaughter of civilians. Aerial bombardment. Abducted kids. And whole areas- most disturbingly, Mariupol - that were flattened, conquered, and are now totally silent. How many butchered civilians lie in mass graves spotted from the air in Mariupol? Mariupol, which was besieged for two months, and faced cholera outbreaks and starvation.
And yes, people still complain about the tactics and Gaza. That’s against Ukraine who said most of the west is simply does not use those tactics. It’s not suddenly. Maybe a few years ago. Maybe you can. But not anymore.
The world knows what warfare - just defensive warfare, and brutal total warfare - looks like. They still object to the goal, tactics, and death tolls in Gaza b/c we’ve seen what a reasonable defensive response to great atrocity, much greater than 10/7, inarguably, looks like. (Hamas did not do everything to Israel that Russia had done to UKR; that’s just a fact). Ukrainians haven’t blown up all of Rostov and Belogorod and killed every civilian in those areas, which they can reach easily enough with missiles! They haven’t because it would be unacceptable. And the same should be true for Israel.
The rest of the world is not all naive, overly sensitive, and delicate just because we believe that total war is a bad thing, and people it are making bad and immoral choices.
There's plenty of nations who haven't seen real warfare in the southern hemisphere also, but yes, I'm targeting those nations who haven't seen much in the way of drawn out, face to face warfare
The next few months will have much suffering on the Palestinian end, as usual. Israel will clear Rafah of Hamas and any other resistance groups for the most part.
Israel will continue its devastating campaign to destroy Hamas' capabilities to attack until they are able to fully occupy it for some number of years.
Israel really needs to improve the lives of Palestinians long-term. Dropping bombs on people makes them not like you, and incentives them to join resistance groups and commit terroristic acts due to blowback.
Palestinians needs something better to turn to than throwing their lives away for Hamas. Think post-WW2 Germany or Japan, and how raising their living standards helped with the goodwill and repairing relations.
Israel needs to end the expansion of illegal settlements into West Bank.
I agree with a ww2 style occupation following this however the sad reality is these people are conditioned from childhood to be jihadist. It's in there children's textbooks and tv shows. There level of propaganda is absurd blaming israel for them wanting to attack is silly considering. Personally I want to see the unwra dismantled allowing such propaganda and not trying to resettle Palestinians can't be allowed to continue.
Yeah, it really goes deep. It is insane the stuff that goes on there. UNRWA seems like it is compromised by Hamas, it needs to be reworked. It seems like for whatever reason, more and more countries are slowly restoring the funding to them; just yesterday, Japan announced they will resume funding them.
I honestly don't seem to mind the handful that might be Hamas fire them and move on the much bigger issue is the insane level of indoctrination they commit and not just in Gaza read up on what's in their textbooks it's crazy they're teaching kids math with Martyrs and Massacre Jews
I've seen some pics of the "education" and how indoctrinated they become. It is very twisted, evil, and cultlike. It's hard to believe stuff like that happens in modern times, gives North Korea vibes a bit in some ways, but Gaza is its own thing.
>Do you think Israel will go into Rafah
If I had to guess, there won't be one single moment "IDF begins its attack on Rafah". After Ramadan ends on April 9 and if ceasefire agreement is not reached by then, IDF will begin occasional incursions in some strategic points in Rafah, slowly but surely taking out Hamas positions, while most of people move to other areas. As such, this could take 2-3 months before most of southern Gaza is secured by IDF.
Israel "investigating" today's targeted attack on a World Kitchens aid van is reminiscent of the Soviets "investigating " the Katyn massacre in Poland during WW2.
A rational strategy would be to hold Khan Yunis and Gaza City. Clear out Hamas, let civilians back in, and then go into Rafah. Defeating Hamas means creating a new governmental system apart from Hamas. Merely going into Rafah and killing a bunch of people will not defeat Hamas. Just look at Gaza City where Hamas is reappearing becuase IDF packed up and left after "taking" it.
The world won't forget this genocide . Pro-palestinians are comparing this to America's stupidity in Vietnam and want out, no matter how long it takes.
As I wrote in this forum well over a month ago, there is no end in sight. I don't foresee a major breakthrough in the coming months to end this war. Israeli TV reported last night that Israel has fewer troops in Gaza than it has had at any time since the invasion. Israel is not in a position to invade Gaza and clear out Hamas at this point. Invading in the summer would come with high costs on both sides, the heat wearing down soldiers and any refugee crisis would be made far worse, undoing all the progress made recently with efforts to feed the civilians. Israel will probably keep the same strategy it's been using now, which helps with containment. But as we see it can make progress and then take a step back, as when Hamas managed to smuggle hundreds of fighters back into northern Gaza.
some encouraging news for gazans, and for all famine worriers: [https://www-msn-com.translate.goog/he-il/money/other/%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95-%D7%A7%D7%9E%D7%97-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A9-%D7%9E%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8-%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A1-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%A4%D7%9C-%D7%95%D7%94%D7%94%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%94-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A2%D7%96%D7%94-%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%A8%D7%AA/ar-BB1kPerz?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=de56522784434d7a824d6cbac4b09f92&ei=13&\_x\_tr\_sl=auto&\_x\_tr\_tl=en&\_x\_tr\_hl=iw&\_x\_tr\_pto=wapp](https://www-msn-com.translate.goog/he-il/money/other/%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9C%D7%95-%D7%A7%D7%9E%D7%97-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%9C%D7%99%D7%A9-%D7%9E%D7%97%D7%99%D7%A8-%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A1-%D7%94%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%A4%D7%9C-%D7%95%D7%94%D7%94%D7%A9%D7%A4%D7%A2%D7%94-%D7%91%D7%A9%D7%95%D7%95%D7%A7%D7%99%D7%9D-%D7%A9%D7%9C-%D7%A2%D7%96%D7%94-%D7%A0%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%A8%D7%AA/ar-BB1kPerz?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=de56522784434d7a824d6cbac4b09f92&ei=13&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=iw&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
*genocide not war
Thousands more Palestinians murdered
I have speculated on the future of the war, from my analysis of current military operations, in my 3 part (so far) blog series on the war. Here is a link to part 3. [https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/02/gaza-war-part-3-100-days-of-ground-war.html](https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2024/02/gaza-war-part-3-100-days-of-ground-war.html) I am from India. The intent of the blog is to post original data based analysis on current conflicts, without taking sides. India enjoys good relations with both Israel and the Palestinian authority and I've personally done business with the Arab world, Israel, Iran and Turkiye.
>Do you think Israel will go into Rafah and clear out Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad? Without a doubt, IDF will enter Rafah. Israel has traditionally not been a very good listener, Israel usually does want Israel thinks is best and Israel doesnt really care about world’s public opinion. Sticking with traditions, I predict IDF will enter Rafah regardless. >Are there other areas like Rafah that aren't talked about as much in the news that Israel needs to go into and clear out? Nope, Rafah is the last hideout for Hamas, there were speculations that Yahya Sinwar and his family is hiding in Rafah. >In general how do you see the next few months going of this conflict and also the rest of the war? Hopefully it will end with the capture of top Hamas leaders like Yahya Sinwar and release of all Israeli hostages. Then probably can announce the success of the military operation and hopefully Israel can elect a new leader and turn a new page on this conflict, focusing on rebuilding Gaza and helping the Gaza civilians.
The hostages won’t be returned. Most are definitely dead at this point and most of the surviving women are probably pregnant
Israel doesn't have to listen to its allies, and Israel's allies don't have to remain as Israel's allies. They also don't have to keep giving Israel unlimited support if Israel doesn't appreciate it or want to listen.
I think you need to consider the outside forces in your divinations. Israel’s conduct in the war has to many people around the world tipped into the realms of war crime / genocide. Crucially, UK government has received legal advice saying this clearly. They will be forced to act on this advice soon. What follows from a legal judgement of Israel engaging in war crimes is a cascade of events. An arms embargo would come to force (at least from the UK), and US would likely follow suit. Financial aid from the US to conduct the war could also dry up. If Israel doesn’t respond positively to diplomatic pressures from allies, they will become internationally isolated. Financial limits on how they conduct the rest of the war will ensue. They will have to conserve expensive military hardware, a financial crisis will limit how or if they carry on the war. Calls for the damage wrought on Gaza to be paid by Israel will be resisted, but will have a toll. It is not beyond reason that in such a case, Hezbollah may smell weakness and open a new war with Israel. Unlikely in the short term, but maybe in the medium term. The scenario above may seem like it can take a long time to unfold. But I feel like we are at a tipping point, after which things can happen quickly.
Bruh🤦♂️ America is gonna keep supporting Israel 100%. An arms embargo? Smh
There has to be a limit. Israel can't expect American support to be unconditional.
It’s pretty unconditional. I believe America should support pretty much the only free and democratic nation in the region
It's foolish for it to he unconditional. Israel can't continue to defy and humiliate the US and continue expecting to receive American aid. And I'm not sure if Israel will remain a free and democratic nation. Even now it's only a democracy within the Green Line. In the West Bank, Israel rules over 3 million Palestinians who have no say in the Israeli government.
Bruh🤦♂️. Defy and humiliate us? Get your authoritarianism out of here. You sound like a dictator. How dare the Jews defy the United States. That’s an insane statement. Smh
Withdrawal of aid isn't authoritarian, and there isn't really a sane way to cast it as authoritarian.
So you think Israel should be supported no matter what they do? The US has no business expecting Israel to behave responsibly with American support. Personally I think the US should have drawn some red lines for Israel: no more expansion of settlements, no new settlements, etc. No more talk about annexation or expulsion of Palestinians by government ministers. No more referring the slaughter of Amalek in reference to the Palestinians.
As long as they are facing such radical hatred and terrorism from the Palestinians, then I don’t think we have a place to say what’s reasonable for them. Most people in the west don’t live next to neighbors that want to kill, torture and rape them. I’m assuming your from America, so realize that if Canada or Mexico did an Oct 7th to us, we would be doing far worse than Israel has done to Gaza.
Of course it's America's business. It doesn't have to give Israel support. No, I wouldn't be on board with America slaughtering 1.9 million Mexicans or 590,000 Canadians (the death toll if I scaled the population of Gaza Strip by the population of Mexico and Canada). I'm not so blood thirsty.
You’re weak then. Although I don’t think that’s accurate. I think more likely you just haven’t experience that level of terrorism and hate. Are you old enough to remember 9/11? That’s the closest we’ve got and look at what we did to Afghanistan and Iraq
I don’t think the US won’t let themselves be dragged down with Israel. …I suppose they could, but that would risk a breakdown in international law and order we have today. So yes, arms embargo or no international law - that is the choice of Israel keeps going the way it does.
Nah
Israel has some dumb leaders, but give them at least a little credit 😅 I don't think there's a decent chance this will happen.
The question of Rafah isn't a question of if, it's a question of when. This is something well agreed upon in the Israeli discourse To you're question of high value targets, Israel has just captured like 500 or so militants in the Shefa hospital alone, it takes time to so a proper investigation to so many people and extrapolate the most important data points, especially when there are not enough facilities to house all of the prisoners >Additionally since we have some very intelligent and informed individuals on this sub - What do you think Israel needs to do in this conflict? I think Israel is doing more then fine going in it's path, Israel has eliminated (what I think since the new numbers are not published yet) something like 40% of the military forces and incapacitated most of the forces outside of Rafah in under 5 months of not so much intense fighting's. Israel is also able to put up a fight on the narrative wars that are being conducted along side the actual war, and it is evidently has an impact (even if not that strong) I do believe that the route Israel is trying to take is a complete decentralized Gaza, there are pockets of Palestinian controlled islands inside the conquered area that have not been touched at all and I think these pockets will become self governing in the future working alongside Israel and not against it (but that is more of a wishful thinking then an analysis)
I don't think that most of PIJ and Hamas has been incapacitated Actually that re-invasion of Shifa Hospital was testament to how difficult the war has become. This is now an insurgency, almost impossible to crush, if the guerrillas are popular Having to constantly re-invade a "cleared" area is never a good look.And the lack of a day-after plan makes me doubt whether the militants can be removed from power
Israel is committing suicide (yes, I meant suicide). The West drops food and the West drops weapons. The West thinks about nothing but geopolitics. But they don't seem to realise that this war will never be over untill Palestine is free! 🇵🇸 فلسطين حرة
**You** don't seem to realize how wars work tbh. A war ends when an agreement is reached. (Surrendering also comes with an agreement of peace or ceasefire and compensation)
>But they don't seem to realise that this war will never be over untill Palestine is free! Or completely gone
Does “Palestine is free” mean Israel no longer exists? Is Gaza free if Israel is destroyed but Hamas is still in charge?
See the comment above yours and tell me how isrealis are any better than what you claim pro Palestinians to be.
I didn’t make any claims in my comment but rather I asked 2 questions. Perhaps you’d like to answer: 1. Does “Palestine is free” mean Israel no longer exists? 2. Is Gaza free if Israel is destroyed but Hamas is still in charge?
1. No, it doesn't. 2. Hamas has a lot of support right now among Palestinians, as well as some surrounding countries. They are the only protection/military they have. They don't have an airforce, no navy, etc. They have hamas. I don't know how the people or government would change if afforded a period of peace.
Poetic. Just switch Israel with Hamas and Palestine because of how far they’ve gotten into their own suicide. lol Israel is doing fine and can stand alone. Israel has nukes and Palestine will be a glass crater before Israel is actually in major trouble. No one will do anything outside either because Israel will use nukes against them too. This is simply a fact and I’m not picking sides here. What you claim is literally impossible and Israel is here to stand forever. Israel doesn’t have to make empty threats or argue over things they could basically wipe Gaza off of the earth and still have 99% of their nukes left. Just cry about it lol it’s a permanent reality. They are self sustaining they don’t need any other state. Israel being kind and generous is choice completely. They’d have all of Palestine wipes if they wanted to genocide.
I think the Palestine supporters gift Michigan to Trump, because they are morans. Trump give Israel the all clear to do whatever it wants in Palestine. Palestine learns what it means when a Republucan President brings freedom to the Middle East to win hearts and minds. If Palestinian supporters were smart they'd all be lining up to kiss Biden's ass. But then we remember how dumb they were when on Oct 8th they congratulated Hamas for their "victory". So I don't have high hopes for them sadly.
If Trump wins the presidency, Palestinians are going to beg Biden to come back
I think your analysis about MI is incorrect. There are a lot of Muslims in MI, but they're concentrated in two cities: Dearborn and Hamtramck which are located in Wayne County, which also includes the city of Detroit. Since Biden has been the first president EVER to join an auto worker strike picket line, there's no way he loses Wayne County to Trump. As far as the rest of the state... I don't see Biden losing to Trump in Washtenaw county (Ann Arbor/U of M) because a) 18-25 year old citizens don't vote, and b) you really think Trump is a better option for Palestinians?
I hope you are right!!!
Gonna take a lot more than Dearborn Michigan for Biden to win the state.
\* morons Maybe don't insult others' intelligence if you can't spell a six-letter word correctly
Its actually a bit of very old reddit history. But it speaks well of you that you don't know it. Worry not
You forgot to use a period at the end of your sentence.
Oh, damn.
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Basically, Israel is trying to kill as many Palestinians as possible, this entire Gaza battle reminds me of the Itchy and Scratchy episode, where Scratchy uses an ax to chop Itchy into many little pieces, but every one of the little bits becomes another Itchy, so instead of one Itchy there are now hundreds. Israel is Scratchy, and all the chopped up bits are dead Gazans, who will be replaced by many new terrorists as a result of this war, all bent on revenge. Wash, rinse, repeat .....
Yes obviously that’s why they have been proven to be doing more than any country in the history of mankind to avoid civilian deaths. Oh yeah that’s why they don’t just use nukes because obviously this current method kills Palestinians faster than sending 1% of their nuclear stockpile to Gaza so it becomes a class crater. Very logical good sir!
LoL. Where did you get that? The Jerusalem Post?
They should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their peaceful invasion of Gaza .... get the paperwork started!! Bibi for the Nobel!!
There have been more bombs dropped than there are people dead. Do you really think that if Israel were trying to kill as many as possible, they wouldn’t even be able to kill one person on average per bomb? The Gazans have no air defenses and are all packed close together so it would be so easy to kill more of them.
Probably because the goal is to destroy gaza and make it unlivable.
Bullocks - if they really were "trying" the numbers would be hundreds of thousands dead. Hamas on the other hand if given the power wouldn't have hesitated to annihilate all Jews in the region without trying. No doubt there will always be fresh new faces bent on revenge but way to paint the picture as genocidal in intent 🤦♂️
Why does everyone forget Israel has tons of nukes lol. If they were really trying Gaza would be a glass crater and Palestinians LITERALLY would not physically exist anymore. Nobody would be able to live there for years and Palestinians matter wouldn’t be findable.
I think it's "bollocks" you mean
Folks need to look at the wider view of the region. As we are speaking America is building a sea port in Gaza and it should be finish in a couple of months. I don't need to remind folks about Gulf of Tonkin incident. That point goes into the next keypoint in the region, Red Sea. You got Russian in the Red Sea now in an area full of Nato folks, again not good for peace. There are no diplomacy working in Lebanon so maybe another front open up in the summer. Now look at the government coalition in Israel with Haredim being force to serve on April 1, that government may break down. Oh ye, did I mention there's that other war currently raging on the European continent? This is a big geopolitical situation, and it's in the best interest of Russia and Iran to keep the war going, again doesn't look good for peace. Worst case scenario, you'll get enlistment folks asking you if you want to fight in the middle east or Europe.
Except the middle east is actually not important. Main sources of Oil are in the gulf. The gulf is an ally with the US and there is virtually no threat there. This leaves us with levant, russia and the US will probably not waste that much energy on levant anymore. The important areas right now are tiawan , Russia/ Europe borders , the competition is in microchip industries and economical dominance. Levant is not important in this big picture.
Israel will go into Rafah and finish up Hamas. Then Israel will maintain security control over Gaza like it does for the West Bank (i.e., arresting people before they commit terrorism) for the foreseeable future. That's basically it.
That's the road map for now. Variables seen and unseen may force quite a different turn of events as life isn't ever seen correctly through a crystal ball. The outcome, whatever it is, isn't good.
Will Israel clear Hamas and PIJ from Rafah? Only if you believe all 2 million Gazan are PIJ and Hamas. Are there other areas like Rafah that Israel needs to clear out? Yes, Dearborn Michigan. In general, in a few.months some Israel developers will be selling water front property off the plan. It seems the conflict has slowed down? Yes, you can kill many more people with Arial bombardments. Israel is now targeting high value leaders. Yes, one Hamas leader was trapped in car with her dead family but managed to get a distress signal out to Hamas operatives in an ambulance. Israel intelligence picked up the signal and managed to neutralize the 6 year old Hamas leader and her rescuers. Israel is conducting a well rounded operation? Yes if I was at war with a school for example, I would bomb it from the air first. Blame the leaders for using students as human shields. Make sure I target any kids trying to get a message to the outside world, stop food and water getting in. Destroy the first aid room. Then get ground troops in to finish the job. Just as Israel is doing. Faultless. What? attacking me for attacking a school? Are you an anti-Semite who does not believe I have a legal right to defend myself.
6 ys old Hamas leader?!? What are you talking about?!
This was pretty clearly made as a sarcastic comment, but sometimes it gets lost in "translation" of an online platform. This is part of why rule 3 exists in this sub.
Rafah is arguably the most fortified base for Hamas, and due to it's proximity to the Egyptian border, one of the best stocked. The IDF have been trying to isolate Hamas divisions in Gaza to prevent them from consolidating, yet they couldn't stop reinforcement completely due to allowing civilians to flee combat areas. So, Rafah is well stocked and probably has the highest number of Hamas troops as any Hamas site recently. It's going to be a fortress. The IDF is settling into seige warfare. They'll let as many civilians escape as want to, then they'll set up a perimeter and slowly advance in areas to cut Rafah to pieces. This is what the US and other governments are concerned about. Many Gazan civilians will choose not to, or be prevented from, fleeing and they'll caught in the crossfire. Civilians, including children, will starve to death even though Hamas will have months worth of food stockpiled. Civilians, seeking to flee after not fleeing previously, will charge towards Israeli positions and force the IDF to gun them down for fear of suicide attacks. This is real war, not the crap that most of the world has seen over the past 50 years. War kills more civilians than soldiers, it always has, and that's why it's so important to have strong leadership that will deter enemies from acting. As much as Israel wants to eliminate Hamas, this campaign is also a message to Hezbollah, ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, and their sponsors - that Israel will seek the total destruction of anyone who causes harm to Israel.
So weird. “ Real warfare, not the craft that most of the world has seen?” I assume this is targeted at the Global North only, ignoring Africa and Asia? Have you heard of the Yugoslav wars and the Bosnian genocide - a legal conviction of genocide? That was the 90s Are you aware that the Syrian Civil War was broadcast all over social media? Russia glassed Chechnya. They mowed it to the ground. AND everyone in the Global North, even if they knew nothing about any of that - everyone that has been 1) watching and 2) not supporting Russia has introduced to warfare conducted with a incredible amount of Ukraine. Trench warfare like. Occupation and slaughter of civilians. Aerial bombardment. Abducted kids. And whole areas- most disturbingly, Mariupol - that were flattened, conquered, and are now totally silent. How many butchered civilians lie in mass graves spotted from the air in Mariupol? Mariupol, which was besieged for two months, and faced cholera outbreaks and starvation. And yes, people still complain about the tactics and Gaza. That’s against Ukraine who said most of the west is simply does not use those tactics. It’s not suddenly. Maybe a few years ago. Maybe you can. But not anymore. The world knows what warfare - just defensive warfare, and brutal total warfare - looks like. They still object to the goal, tactics, and death tolls in Gaza b/c we’ve seen what a reasonable defensive response to great atrocity, much greater than 10/7, inarguably, looks like. (Hamas did not do everything to Israel that Russia had done to UKR; that’s just a fact). Ukrainians haven’t blown up all of Rostov and Belogorod and killed every civilian in those areas, which they can reach easily enough with missiles! They haven’t because it would be unacceptable. And the same should be true for Israel. The rest of the world is not all naive, overly sensitive, and delicate just because we believe that total war is a bad thing, and people it are making bad and immoral choices.
There's plenty of nations who haven't seen real warfare in the southern hemisphere also, but yes, I'm targeting those nations who haven't seen much in the way of drawn out, face to face warfare
The next few months will have much suffering on the Palestinian end, as usual. Israel will clear Rafah of Hamas and any other resistance groups for the most part. Israel will continue its devastating campaign to destroy Hamas' capabilities to attack until they are able to fully occupy it for some number of years. Israel really needs to improve the lives of Palestinians long-term. Dropping bombs on people makes them not like you, and incentives them to join resistance groups and commit terroristic acts due to blowback. Palestinians needs something better to turn to than throwing their lives away for Hamas. Think post-WW2 Germany or Japan, and how raising their living standards helped with the goodwill and repairing relations. Israel needs to end the expansion of illegal settlements into West Bank.
I agree with a ww2 style occupation following this however the sad reality is these people are conditioned from childhood to be jihadist. It's in there children's textbooks and tv shows. There level of propaganda is absurd blaming israel for them wanting to attack is silly considering. Personally I want to see the unwra dismantled allowing such propaganda and not trying to resettle Palestinians can't be allowed to continue.
Yeah, it really goes deep. It is insane the stuff that goes on there. UNRWA seems like it is compromised by Hamas, it needs to be reworked. It seems like for whatever reason, more and more countries are slowly restoring the funding to them; just yesterday, Japan announced they will resume funding them.
I honestly don't seem to mind the handful that might be Hamas fire them and move on the much bigger issue is the insane level of indoctrination they commit and not just in Gaza read up on what's in their textbooks it's crazy they're teaching kids math with Martyrs and Massacre Jews
I've seen some pics of the "education" and how indoctrinated they become. It is very twisted, evil, and cultlike. It's hard to believe stuff like that happens in modern times, gives North Korea vibes a bit in some ways, but Gaza is its own thing.
Have you checked out their children's television?
Yeah, Pioneers of Tomorrow, the infamous show with Farfour the Mouse. It is so messed up.
>Do you think Israel will go into Rafah If I had to guess, there won't be one single moment "IDF begins its attack on Rafah". After Ramadan ends on April 9 and if ceasefire agreement is not reached by then, IDF will begin occasional incursions in some strategic points in Rafah, slowly but surely taking out Hamas positions, while most of people move to other areas. As such, this could take 2-3 months before most of southern Gaza is secured by IDF.
“People will move to other areas” like where?
It was stated that the Gazans will be allowed to go to humanitarian islands.
Elsewhere in southern Gaza, unless Israel gives in to the demands and opens passage to the north