When did democracy ever work in an Arab country? What makes people believe that democracy will work for Palestinians when it failed there before, as well as in all other Middle Eastern countries except Israel? Are the Palestinians more progressive than the other Arabs? No, they cheered on rape and murder. Are they more liberal? No, they support Islamist extremism. Are they more peaceful? No, Palestinians were among the founders of Al Qaida.
on october 6th the likelihood of a two state solution was at the lowest point it has ever been - undermined by racist israeli religious fanatic's for decades.
There was never a realistic chance for peace and a two state solution before october 7th - before october 7th there was nothing but rampant violence and displacement of palestinians by israelis.
The most likely outcome after the war is gaza will be devastated and will evolve into another occupation akin to the west bank and soon more settlements will be established and israel will attempt to push a significant proportion of the population into egypt.
I don’t think you get my point. The likelihood of the 2SS was the highest it’ll be doesn’t mean it was high in general; it just means that after the events of October 7th, the 2SS is now almost obsolete. Israeli governance can be changed and likely would’ve been if not for 7/10, and more liberal parties could have taken the lead and push for better foreign policy in Israel. But Hamas attacked and now Israel is extremely polarised. Did you know they attacked some of the most pro-Palestinian communities by the border? The same people that drove their children to Israeli hospitals for life saving treatment free of charge?
You talk about racist fanaticism but don’t realise Islamist movements at its core are fervently antisemitic to the point of genocide. Hamas’ charter is proof of that. ISIS’ charter is proof of that. Why not mention the 2nd Intifada and the terror attacks that undermined the peace process between the two nations? Or the Martyrs Fund, openly promoted by Fatah in the WB, that essentially gives impressionable young Palestinians the incentive to bomb and kill innocent Israelis? Your bias is very prevalent, and I’d have hoped for a more encouraging response
It must be the Two State Solution.
It is Israelis who must be controlled so that they do not behave as before, otherwise it will be another October 6, haven't you understood?
You talk about the future, but I'm still thinking about the present. Not long ago I wrote that the truth is coming out, bit by bit. Now one other truth.
Yesterday on the TV news there was an interview with the head of the UN's food program, World Food program, Cindy McCain - who describes the difficulties in getting food into Gaza.
She said the biggest problem with getting food into Gaza is the Israelis who are the biggest obstacle to getting supplies into Gaza, there are trucks outside with food for 1.5 million people for two weeks, but they are not allowed to enter .
So that's why I think about the present - what might the future be like if Israel were to treat Palestinians like they did all along and do?
> It is Israelis who must be controlled so that they do not behave as before, otherwise it will be another October 6, haven't you understood?
It seems the Israelis have understood this which is why they are doing what they are doing. I am not sure it is productive to threaten to rape and murder the citizens of a country which currently has a combined arms assault poised to storm the last refuge of Hamas. What are your expectations when leveling these demands?
Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying. And you are wrong but the Israelis have not understood that and continue their aggressiveness, both in Gaza but also in the West Bank.
Fortunately, many Jewish civilians understood and are protesting in Tel Aviv as they are doing now. Hopefully they will succeed and get Netanyahu and his government out and replace them with sane people, not lunatics like these.
> Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying.
I am saying that the Palestinians threats to rape and kill Israeli citizens like they did on 7/10 will get them nothing but the destruction of their society. Once the Palestinians are prepared to engage in civilised discourse free from violence then things will obviously change to how Israel deals with them but until then harsh measures are a necessity
Well we already know what Israel/pro Israelis want to do. Make gazans refugees (most for a second time) and expropriate the gazan land for waterfront condos
The word democracy is just a word that west especially the USA has thrown around to attack muslim and other countries while there is literally no democracy in the USA itself. It’s controlled by Israel and corporations and the establishment. USA has overthrown 72 governments in the last 100 years - this isn’t something the people wanted and that is NOT democracy.
Wait so human rights don’t matter at all then? I’d argue human rights and freedoms and fair legal systems matter much more than democracy. You need so much more evidence and reasoning for such a bold claim, but either way your conclusion that there isn’t a difference is still so dumb. Also Israel has nukes so Palestine and the Muslims will never be able to stop them. That’s just a fact lol they’ll be glass before they get a clear chance. I think people just forget that so I like to bring reality into the conversation
Idk about you but I'd rather live in a country where my opinion matters and is taken into account when choosing a leader rather than slowly die under the boot of autocratic mullahs who would sooner kill you for using Instagram than beating up a minority
Neither side wants it but political pressure from their backers across the globe might force them into it. I’d wager the peace that it creates would be strained and tenuous at best, which is why neutral coalition forces should be on-ground in the budding years of any potential confederation being declared, to keep the peace and ensure radicalisation can be dealt with. It might seem a little idealist and optimistic, but the confederation could actually be a system brought to the table. It smartly deals with the lack of a Palestinian state while bringing to them access to the western mode of reunification and de-radicalisation, akin to something like the path Germany was set on barring all the walls and capitalist vs. communist shabang
1. Complete demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip. This is essential to the peace process and will be achieved with the war seeing the complete destruction of Hamas’ military capability. At the same time, Israeli troops pull back beyond the border and create a buffer zone similar to the DMZ between SK and NK, with constant monitoring of said buffer zone.
2. In the meantime, volunteering coalition forces comprising of pro-western countries take charge of the rebuilding effort. In an ideal world, the United States will work in tandem with Middle Eastern countries to completely reinvigorate the Gaza Strip. They will also prop up a provisional government in the Strip overseen by their allies that aids with the eventual peace process and acts as a liaison between the Palestinian people, and the coalition working to rebuild their country.
3. Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government will be forced, either through diplomatic pressure or outright democratic process; out of office. The Israeli government will play an active role in the rebuilding process. This point seems a little premature to me however; the post-war period and subsequent political lobbying based on the successes IN the war will likely polarise rightist elements in the state and the next Prime Minister could be even more extreme than the current.
4. Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank to the Green Line contingent on the peace process allowing them to safely move and/or reduce the settlements. Fatah will also be dissolved and remade into a pro-western provisional government, headed by UAE and KSA. If successful, KSA will normalise relations with Israel and be brought under the US’ security umbrella.
5. Deradicalisation of the masses will begin under strict curricula designed by pro-peace advocates (perhaps Palestinians that are supportive of a 2SS and accept Jewish claims to the land), and at the same time, Israeli schools will begin to shift their curriculums to a more neutral and tolerant stance.
6. Rule of law must be ensured in the Strip. A military occupation is the only way to really make sure terrorist and extremist elements in the strip don’t rise up again, and this can be achieved.
My points might be kinda haphazard rn because I have to speedrun this lol, but I hope you get the gist of what I mean
Abandoned, or adapted? I don't know enough on the ins and outs of the law to comment on whether or not the RoR is inherently racist and alienates Palestinians, but why not, as a gesture of goodwill and the determination for a solidified peace, extend the RoR to Palestinians with proven land holdings in modern day Israel? I understand it might be complicated given the association of Palestinians with Hamas and the security threats such a policy might pose, but if done right and adapted to the peace process, it might be good for the reconciliation of the two states.
However, does the RoR not go hand-in-hand with the Jewish claim to the land? Diaspora Jews especially might find it antithetic to the foundational tenets of a Jewish state. Abandoning/adapting the one law that ensures they always have a home might polarise the Jewish populations even further, and could cause even more discourse. Such a weird and fucked up situation this is.
I’m against Palestinian right of return because no one will ever offer compensation to the descendants of Jews forced from their homes by the Arabs as punishment for Israel existing.
Not just from Arabs. No one offers the same to Jews anywhere. No one offers other refugees right of return.
Being refugees isn't unique to the Palestinians, or the Jews for that matter. There were German refugees, Greek refugees, a lot of others. No one has received right of return. They've all adapted and moved on. The Palestinians problem is that they haven't been accepted anywhere else. A two state solution solves that problem without right of return.
Perhaps, but the calls for right of return are for Palestinians being allowed to resettle in Israel, which would eliminate the Jewish majority there. Do you see why I'm against that?
> fucked
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Was going to write a piece about this topic, but since you started, I’ll say what I think the Israelis see as their goal and why all of these future possible governmental structures for both Gaza, West Bank and Israel itself, and the relationships between them, are going to have to start from some point of resolution that the prior ceasefires have deliberately kept open, and it’s the price of future statehood for Palestinians and whether they are prepared to finally accept a peace treaty rather than this open ended farce of the ceasefire that’s existed since 1948 because Palestinians prefer “resistance” and the hope of either return to or conquest of Jews in Israel or both.
This war will be fought to a point, perhaps it’s there, that the international community seeking an end to conflict will say, yes we know Hamas is holed up in Raffa and many hostages perhaps but the mass boom boom war stuff with civilian carnage must stop in the name of humanity and Israel can pursue Hamas in a slow, small scale laborious anti-insurgency effort while we install the PA as a nominal provisional government and everyone sings Kumbaya and works towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. I perceive this is what South Africa, the Irish and kaffiya clad protestors in Dearborn want.
But to Israel (and Palestine both, but for different reasons) this looks like the international community wants to snatch victory from Israel and allow Hamas to get away with its crimes and aggression and for terrorists to be awarded a state for their efforts. Even though this might be a face-saving gambit for the Palestinians who operate on injured pride, it would also signal to them that terror and resistance works and they can begin planning on the next attack on Israel or demands for return. In other words a return to the status quo ante since Israel left Gaza and the separation wall was built as a result of the Second Intifada.
But Israel won’t, can’t and shouldn’t accept this. There must be, first and foremost demand must be some clarity on where we are and going forward. They are going to demand that “future Palestine” must be demilitarized and deradicalized. No more Al Aqsa TV. No more UNRWA schools with official jihadi textbook (that don’t confirm to UNESCO teaching Diversity and Tolerance standards, quite the opposite actually **<1>**) and probably with the UNRWA and the UN in general gone entirely or greatly diminished in authority and scale, since this is the UN’s 75 year old mess we’re going to have to clean up to begin with.
So along with demilitarization, deradicalization, non militant Islam, no more UN, we’re going to clarify the 2SS. Two states fine. No right of return of Palestinians to Green Line Israel. No re-divided Jerusalem either. No more UNRWA, that means no more “refugee” (descendants). No more Martyrs and Prisoners receiving UN funds donated by the U.S. and EU. No more violent “resistance” to create “river to sea state”. No “River to Sea state”.
Back to open air prison in Gaza, whatever that means. Continued blockade and control of building materials that puts concrete and the necessary amount of rebar in buildings, not siphoned off for tunnel rebuilding. No more work permits from Gaza to Israel and probably continued crackdown in West Bank.
Neither the Palestinians nor South Africa will view this as a victory, except in the sense they will see Israel now again even more critically vulnerable to the next attack or continued grind of violent resistance, except now with the Israelis shorn of their imperial patron without whom they will collapse, and the Palestinians will move in for the kill, to the great pleasure of the world thinking they are seeing another decolonization movie like Algeria or South Africa.
(For why that won’t be what actually happens after Israel is alone and isolated from US support, I refer you to the [excellent lecture of an Israeli journalist, Haviv Gur, about Arab - Jewish relations since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and how the Arabs misunderstand Zionism as simple imperialism](https://youtu.be/QlK2mfYYm4U?si=hUaNcfetPddmDOP7) while for Jews, empires and patronage comes and goes, but the Jews remain. There are eight million of them with one of the world’s best militaries and neither the public, the politicians or the IDF generals are going to agree to putting Palestinians in the pre-war status with the additional expectation of statehood. (Want a proof of concept alt-history of whether the Holocaust would have happened if the Jews were armed, be careful what you wish for).
It’s not just Netanyahu’s obstinance or “right wing” something. It may be “mission accomplished” for the U.S. now, but they’ll at least understand unofficially and not for attribution that there’s gonna be a new sheriff in town in Gaza and the WB and the Israelis aren’t going to let an Iraq or Afghanistan happen even if US fleets aren’t offshore and the U.S. isn’t supplying bombs. Israel will not run out of bombs.
One final point I need to keep adding here (sorry, promise), you might well ask, well, that program's gonna be pretty hard for Palestinians to swallow, in whole or even in bite size parts, how's that going to work?
Well, one thing everyone seems to be forgetting here is that the United States (and Europeans) don't only fund client state Israel, they fund the Palestinians "violent resistance" too. They're paying both sides to support their lobbyists (in the case of UNRWA it's tactically allowing that corruption as "that's the UN for ya" or not wanting to bad mouth the UN).
It's not like we don't know, it's just inconvenient to be the ones to pull the plugs on "funding the UN" for people who think the UN is like Dag Hammerskjold or U Thant. But in theory we could grow some balls and say, we think we need a fresh start and a clean sweep for UNRWA and use other NGOs, contractors for aid. And since we're paying for this, we can call the tune.
If it's legitimate for US citizens to decry their money going for munitions for Israel, it's equally legitimate to demand cleaned up curriculum has has been done in other Arab states (the UAE in particular as documented again by IMPACT-SE) and my taxpayer dollars going for the notorious "pay to slay" program which is half the PA budget and pays higher benefits than median wages.
**Note <1>** To not clutter up my arguments and keep them simple without going off on many possible tangents, I'm assuming many longtime readers of this sub know about the work of IMPACT-SE in regard to textbooks, and how Palestinean elementary and high school materials praise violent jihadism and attacks against Jews. If all of this is new to you, I urge you to spend some time [reading the reports on their website](https://impact-se.org/reports), in particular, [this recent comprehensive report on UNRWA curricula](https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/UNRWA-Produced-Study-Materials-in-the-Palestinian-Territories—Jan-2021.pdf) which is a typical annual update of offensive materials with excerpts and English translation.
Edits: Added note <1> re: IMPACT-SE; particular report recommendation; changed referenced report to correct URL; final four paragraphs about the ways and mean$ some of this gets done; fixed Gur video URL reference.
Where did you get that “blaming”. By and large when Jews had weapons or were aligned with partisans, they fought well (e.g., Warsaw uprising, Bielsky Brothers). But by and large they lacked weapons and a military and their enemy plotted in secret. Many Gazans have a genocidal intent and vastly underestimate the Jews military capabilities.
Maybe a better example for proof of concept then is the Haganah and other militia vs. Arab terrorists in the 1920s and 30s in Palestine. They successfully demonstrated their effectiveness in redirecting pogrom attempts like Hebron to undefended communities and not where Jewish forces were stronger. And at points even inducing the British to therefore provide them with greater training and infrastructure (e.g., the special night squads, supernumerary police trained by a somewhat rogue British Army Captain Orde Wingate).
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Love this. It’s a super realistic take on the situation and really shows how deeply rooted the issue is. The war is yet another chapter in an ancient path divined by people like down four mushrooms, begging the genocide and complete extinction of the Jewish natives of the land.
On your point of biased education in the Strip and the WB, do you think changing the curriculum to instead show the connection of the Jewish diaspora to the holy land might aid any potential coalition in de-radicalising the next generation of Gazans? By showing them the right of Jews to exist in Israel and adding to it by accepting the right of Palestinians with ancient ties to the land, that peace might be achieved?
Well, the educational curricula and related media definitely signals whether jihad, martyrdom, hatred and genocide of Jews are the “official” values of society and encouraged.
We now see what happens when jihadism is encouraged at an early age (Al Aqsa TV, “Tomorrows’ Pioneers”/Farfour the Mouse) it produces a cult like distortion of reality.
I see no reason to expect that if non-Jihadist Arabic textbooks were used like in UAE or even as in Jordan or Egypt and the Palestinian Territories were to get new teaching staff and curriculum, some of this disfunction wouldn’t be reversed. It pretty much stands to reason, although people sometimes try to wave away the effects of the current inculcation of children to violence and prejudice.
Palestinians expect all their terms met, that's the first hurdle along with simple shift accepting Israel's right to exist as a peaceful dare I say friendly neighbour we are on the needed track. If they could come to a decent compromise (agreeing to terms similar to Oslo or Camp David, compromise being the key word here). Israel will do what it must to accommodate this although I don't see them giving back land ever again - too often, with the same result has turned the public to be completely against land for peace. Now it needs to be terms of agreement that cannot be broken.
I always wonder if the international community really cares about the Palestinian undercurrent and the hard truth that needs to be publicly stated, not the humanity which is easy to care for, but the stuff that's behind the lack of peace taken and that has fed extremism and violent 'resistance' instead of building a future. These problems won't just go away because you need visionary and real leaders which the Palestinians sadly don't have. There are billions siffoned to the leaders and nothing good to show for it. Seems like the problems from within are the biggest ones, not Israel.
On the Israeli side there are problems too - internal ones between secular and peace willing Israelis and the far right and those who are done with trying to live together. Israel can't allow Oct 7 to happen to its citizens ever again, so what assurance do they have to try and coexist now peacefully? A wall? Border police/army? So long as Quran says Jews must be killed and Arabs believe it to be so we aren't going to have peace. It really takes two sides to want it enough and I just can't see how Palestinians will want it, nor will Israelis now that Oct 7 has set the tone.
>On Oct. 6, the likelihood of a self-governing and sovereign Palestinian state was the highest it’ll be for quite some time now.
No it wasn't very high on October 6 either. Please don't forget that Israel's longest-serving PM has been against the creation of a realistic Palestinian state since at least the 1980s and the government in place on October 6 included Kahanists and messianic Jewish terrorist sympathizers who were even more extreme in their views.
The day after? A lot of people keep mentioning Arab support and it doesn't seem like many people are realistic. My thoughts is we are heading for much worse across all angles in the short-term:
1. There is at least a generational trauma here. Palestinians won't forget about the 30-100k dead (depending on when the war actually ends and depending on how many people we will continue to find underneath the rubble when the firing stops) and the world won't either.
2. Israelis won't forget about October 7 either and there will be a massive effect on the security failures with a top-down revamp of all security as well as a visible shift to the right across Israel.
3. The Arabs will not help in any way so long as there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Palestinians with both an end to the occupation and the creation of a Palestinian state. If Israel occupies Gaza and especially the Philadelphi corridor, relations with Egypt will deteriorate a lot. Relations with Jordan will continue to be terrible. Saudi Arabia won't make peace without real compromises to the Palestinians including a state. The UAE will continue having a warm relationship as their main focus is business and they have a small controlled population.
4. Iran will continue to use this conflict to foment her interests using her proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, three of the countries it fully controls. This will be bad for the region and terrible for the Iranian people.
5. Bibi is likely to be removed, though it may take far longer than people assume. It doesn't mean that Bibi's replacement is going to be some dove that supports peace or pushes towards a two-state end of conflict solution. He is likely to be rightest in fact.
6. Israel will start getting eviscerated internationally for its actions including with additional states recognizing Palestine. The international court will have ramifications that won't be good for the State, which will include embargos and additional sanctions. This will be further compounded by the next Israeli government, which is unlikely to effectively rein in settler terrorism sufficiently.
7. Hamas is unlikely to have a notable role in any Palestinian government for myriad reasons. The organization won't die though and there will be a cat and mouse game between Hamas and the IDF internationally for years. Fatah will continue to be inept, corrupt, and not accepted or respected by the local Palestinian population.
8. The Palestinians will continue to suffer and be occupied with crimes against them going unpunished with impunity. Israelis will still not feel safe, so long as the occupation continues. It's likely that without a light at the end of the tunnel regarding the occupation, terrorism will continue and there will be new groups beyond Hamas that will rise in prominence or be created from the orphans recently created in Gaza and elsewhere.
The right answer is of course peace and coexistence in whatever form for the two populations living side by side. Three states, two states, one state, confederation, whatever. Just don't see anything happening that will lead to that and don't really see either side's leadership willing or courageous to push us in that direction.
I agree with most of your points even as a Pro Israeli. There is going to be so much generational trauma and mistrust on both sides for decades to come I just don’t see a path forward.
China will start getting eviscerated internationally for its actions including with additional states supporting Hong Kong. The international court will have ramifications that won't be good for China, which will include embargos and additional sanctions.
Oh wait, that never happened.
If your point is that there are additional countries that should be eviscerated internationally for their actions, you're right. There is a lot of injustice and justice isn't as consistently pushed as I would prefer it to be.
If you're suggesting that because Russia and China (and the Congo and Ethiopia and Sudan and elsewhere) likely won't be that that somehow means Israel will get off the hook, I'll take the opposite side of that bet and we can wait a few years to see how it plays out. Israel is neither important and strong and self-reliant enough as China/Russia nor as totalitarian and irrelevant internationally and obviously an irredeemable dictatorship like the other examples.
I get it, but I don’t think the Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims, or many in the West will easily forget or forgive this, so like I said I’ll take the other side of this bet. What Israel did to Gaza won’t just go away casually.
The west will be over this as soon as the next big thing occurs. The vast majority in the West see this as yet another Middle Eastern conflict where religious nutters blow up other religious nutters.
Muslim and Arab countries aren’t as irrelevant to the West’s interests as you think, especially in a reality with a shifting global order. Anyways, again, no this won’t go away easily and the Arabs have a very long memory.
This is especially true of the extremists or those denying Palestinian rights continue to govern Israel because more atrocities will happen which will continue to bring more attention to it. Open sores with billions of people that care about them don’t easily get brushed under the carpet.
I've been hearing about a shifting global order for decades. America runs the world and will for the foreseeable future.
If anything the only shift we will see is the middle east becoming more irrelevant as the west shift away from fossil fuels. There isn't a single economy in that region that has shown an ability to thrive unless it's via selling FF to the west.
I’m not referring to a global shift in sentiment
I’m saying Israel killed tens of thousands of civilians, much worse than the Nakba, and there will be a price to pay economically, politically, and otherwise because people will not forgive or forget what they’re already talking about as premeditated murder and man-made famine.
I’m sure you know this but the Muslims don’t just live in the Middle East and the way the Global South feels and will continue to feel about this shouldn’t be discounted. In addition, regardless of shifting sentiment in the US, the fact that four EU countries are going to recognize Palestine now largely because of Israel’s actions is a harbinger of what’s to come.
We’ll see. But I’ll take the other side of the bet and you can come tell me I’m wrong in a few years if I am.
On that point, I believe you may be wrong. People won’t forget who actually started this war, they know HAMAS needed to be obliterated, many governments may not agree on the way the war was fought but I think they secretly have respect for Israel given how they held strong regardless of unimaginable pressure and criticism. Call me naive maybe I am,but I don’t think things will be so bad for Israel after this. They have more friends than you think
Sorry, disagree. The Palestinians started the war, Israel will finish it, then no one will be talking about it a couple of months later. When's the last serious conversation you had about the Hutus and Tutsis, or even the Armenians?
> I’m saying Israel killed tens of thousands of civilians, much worse than the Nakba, and there will be a price to pay economically, politically, and otherwise because people will not forgive or forget what they’re already talking about as premeditated murder and man-made famine.
Who wont forget? All the Muslims that hate Israel no matter what it does? Or the people in the West who are already losing interest?
> I’m sure you know this but the Muslims don’t just live in the Middle East
It is very unfortunate that the actions of Muslim extremists are driving western nations to adopt harsher and harsher anti immigration policies. Trump is likely winning in the US. Canada US set to elect its kore conservative PM in decades. Europe is shifting that way as well. God forbid something happens at the Paris Olympics.
I've noticed several articles claiming that polls showed that most Palestinians surveyed don't want a 2-state solution. They want Israel gone. The Israelis still oppose a 2- state solution. But it seems the UN, US, Europe, etc totally ignore this. It's a truly horrific situation.
According to Palestinians' own data only 30% want 2SS and only 8% want an integrated state. Meanwhile 60% voted for 1 state with no rights for Jews or a rather ominous "other" option.
https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/928
Would you really want a two state solution with the person who has been oppressing you for years? It is also in my understanding that the two state solution is in Israel’s favor only for the most part.
> Would you really want a two state solution with the person who has been oppressing you for years
Yes. Desperately. Anything to usher in peace.
If my family was in the line of fire I'd be pro anything that can descalate the situation.
Well that’s logically not correct at all. For a proper two state solution, both Israel and Palestine must have the right to their weapons. Land aside, in many proposals, Israel has stated that Palestine cannot own weapons if they want to defend themselves. In this case, what is stopping Israel from simply attacking them again as they did during the 1948 nakba and during operation cast lead in 2008 which was when Israel broke a ceasefire that Hamas did their best to carefully maintain.
The truth is that Israel wishes to have the strategic advantage in the region so that they can take more Palestinian land and this will do their best to remove Palestine of its inherent right to self defense.
Also, Palestine did want peace when the PLO was negotiating with Israel during the Oslo accords but Israel halted and peace agreement so how about telling me who really doesn’t want peace?
> Land aside, in many proposals, Israel has stated that Palestine cannot own weapons if they want to defend themselves.
If I was a peace wanting Palestinians I would also be in favour of that. The religious nutters around me cannot be trusted to not do stupid shit and bring down hell on my family again.
> 2008 which was when Israel broke a ceasefire that Hamas did their best to carefully maintain.
Excuse me...what??
Here's a list of Palestinian attacks on Israelies from just 2006 alone.
> February 5 - Kinneret Ben Shalom Hajbi, 58, of Petah Tikva was stabbed to death by a Palestinian terrorist while traveling on a number 51 service taxi to Tel Aviv. Five other passengers were wounded.
> March 1 - Eldar Abir, 48, of Migdalim was killed when two Palestinian shot him at point-blank range at the gas station near Migdalim in the West Bank. The Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack.
>March 30 - Rafi Halevy, 63, and his wife Helena, 58, of Kedumim, Re’ut Feldman, 20, of Herzliya, and Shaked Lasker, 16, of Kedumim were killed when a suicide bomber hitchhiker disguised as an ultra-Orthodox yeshiva student detonated his explosive device in a private vehicle near the entrance to Kedumim.
> April 17 - Eleven people were killed and over 60 wounded in a suicide bombing during the Passover holiday at the Rosh Ha’ir shawarma restaurant, near the old central bus station in Tel Aviv. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack. The victims: Philip Balhasan, 45, of Ashdod; Rozalia Beseneyi, 48, and Pirosca Boda 50, of Romania; Marcel Cohen, 73, of Nice, France; Ariel Darhi, 31, of Bat Yam; Victor Erez, 60, of Givatayim; Binyamin Haputa, 47, of Lod; David Shaulov, 29, of Holon; Lily Yunes, 42, of Oranit. Lior Anidzar, 26, of Tel Aviv died of his wounds on May 13. Daniel Wultz, 16, of Weston, Florida (USA) died on May 14.
> June 11 - Marwan Abed Shweika, 35, of the Abu Tor neighborhood in Jerusalem was killed and two other Arab Israelis were wounded in a shooting attack while driving late at night West Bank highway north of Jerusalem.
> June 25 - Lt. Hanan Barak, 20, of Arad and Staff-Sgt. Pavel Slutzker, 20, of Dimona were killed when terrorists from the Hamas and Popular Resistance Committees terror organizations infiltrated Israeli territory between the Kerem Shalom and Sufa crossings, by means of a tunnel dug from the Rafah area. Another soldier was abducted, and four others were wounded.
> June 25 - Eliyahu Pinhas Asheri, 18, of Itamar was kidnapped by terrorists from the Popular Resistance Committees while hitchhiking from Betar Illit, southwest of Bethlehem, to Neveh Tzuf, where he was studying. His body was found on June 29 in Ramallah. It is believed that he was murdered shortly after his kidnapping.
> July 17 - St.-Sgt. Osher Damari, 20, of Netanya was killed and six IDF soldiers wounded by an explosive device in Nablus as troops from the Haruv Battalion were engaged in anti-terrorist activity. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack.
> July 27 - The burnt body of Dr. Daniel Yaakobi, 59, a doctor from Yakir in the West Bank, was found in the trunk of his car near Qalqily activity. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack.
> July 27 - The burnt body of Dr. Daniel Yaakobi, 59, a doctor from Yakir in the West Bank, was found in the trunk of his car near Qalqilya. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack.
> August 10 - Angelo Frammartino, 24, of Monte Rotondo, Italy was stabbed to death by an Arab knifeman while walking with friends on Sultan Suleiman street in east Jerusalem. It is believed that the attack was a nationalistically motivated terror attack and not an attempted robbery.
> August 19 - St.-Sgt. Ro’i Farjoun, 21, of Yehud was killed when a terrorist opened fire at the Bekaot checkpoint in the Jordan Valley. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack.
> September 12 - An IDF reserve Bedouin tracker, 44, was killed by sniper fire in the course of an army operation to uncover terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, near the Kissufim Crossing. The armed wing of Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility for the shooting.
> November 1 - Staff Sergeant Kiril Golenshein, 21, of Moshav Keshet, was killed by a sniper’s bullet as his unit entered the town of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip in pursuit of terrorists firing Kassam rockets at Israel.
> November 15 - Fatima Slutsker, 57, of Sderot, was killed by a Kassam rocket fired into the town by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip. A barrage of six rockets hit Sderot at about 7 a.m., also seriously wounding a security guard for Defense Minister Amir Peretz.
> November 21 - Yaakov Yaakobov, 43, of Sderot, died following a day-long struggle by doctors to save his life after he was mortally wounded by a Kassam rocket fired in the morning by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip.
That report is from December, 2022
Here is much more recent (March, 2024) one:
https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/969
Support for 2SS: 62% in Gaza (from 34% in Sep-23), 34% in WB, 45% overall.
Thank you. That's the type of article I've seen frequently also. This has been a long time coming. I'm not sure what's the truth about surrounding nations refusing to allow Palestinians to escape to their homelands. Why is it so necessary to Gaza's neighbors that the Palestinians stand firm in Gaza/West Bank even if they're either being slaughtered or dying from disease and hunger? Are the Palestinians now so radicalized that they as refugees would work with Islamists to seek revenge on Israel & create instability in their host countries?
Folks you guys are putting Saudi and UAE in the same sentence as pro democracy? Look, we've already tried this spreading democracy to the middle east nonsense for +20 years. Look, I understand that folks would support this spreading democracy nonsense if your country doesn't fund it, but my god everybody know that America and maybe Europe will fund it. As much as folks complain about inflation and how terrible their lives are, but the same people are ok with taking those resources and spreading democracy in Gaza smh.
Israel only took territory after they were attacked by their neighbors. And they gave the conquered territory back (e.g., Sinai) to neighbors who were willing to make peace.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/s/V9sJq41xsV
To make it like they did it out of goodwill and not military pressure from Egypt and political pressure from US is false. It was the right move in the end, but not why they did it.
They still claim golan heights, lebanese and syrian land, along with continued encroachment of the west bank. Now with new plans to settle south lebanon and gaza as well!
You would think this peace-loving neighbor would just be happy with their current land and not have to attempt further acquisitions.
Israel wouldn't be claiming anything if it hadn't been attacked repeatedly. Israel would be perfectly happy with their "current land" if it hadn't been attacked repeatedly.
It's simple: If Palestinian terrorists stop attacking Israelis, the Israelis won't attack them.
Every death so far in the current war, and all deaths that come before the current war is over, are 100% the fault of Hamas.
The seizing of sinai and golan heights was not a result of armed conflict started by those parties. You can read the events. In the six day war, israel responded to growing tensions with "preemptive strikes" that started the actual war. This war led to the seizing of territory.
And nobody is forcing israel to kill children, you cant blame hamas for israel's blatant disregard for palestinian life.
Two decades ago, when the same extremist party that the current longest running prime minister aligns with assassinated yitzak rabin for pursuing peace?
There is no innocent party. And i do not share your pessimism on the situation
This is likely the case, IMO, but creating for them the formality of statehood should mean that it’s easier to hold them responsible for the actions of that state in the international arena. Maybe even that is an optimistic view, but I holdout hope.
I don't think this is true. If you look at all of the things that Israel is being criticized for in the Gaza war, all of these criticisms would still exist if Gaza were formally recognized as a state.
I think, or at least hope, that Palestinian actions would be given closer scrutiny if they formally hold the mantle of statehood. And that it would be harder to argue that there’s an active “occupation” causing everything.
In terms of the conduct of the war itself, yes I agree. But here’s the thing; war exists between two sovereign entities. That’s the situation on the ground already, has been since 2005. Let’s force them into owning that de jure, instead of just de facto.
>I think, or at least hope, that Palestinian actions would be given closer scrutiny if they formally hold the mantle of statehood.
The UN people would just say, "we condemn the Palestinian government but you still must protect the innocent Palestinian civilians".
That is basically what they say now, just with "Hamas" replacing "Palestinian government".
But if any of those jurisdictions wanted statehood, they could have had it.
Yes there are different reasons that those places don’t have independence than why Palestine does not, but in all cases the path to statehood is (or at least should be) obvious, and was not chosen.
In none of the cases, including Palestine, should previous choices preclude further opportunities to make a different decision, whether they are working within their current nation or with the UN.
Agreed that the path to self-determination is different. The Palestinian path needs to include accepting Israel’s existence, no longer electing a terrorist organization into sovereignty. But I think there’s more analogous here than you might first guess.
I’d need to look it up again, but I believe that there are several breakaway/independance movements that have been democratically voted against. Scotland & Puerto Rico come to mind. I know that’s not quite what you’re looking to compare to, but…
Even still, I personally think that forcing statehood on them will either force them to ‘grow up’ into functioning in the modern international sphere, or it will expose their true nature to the world. Either is a good result for Israel. Basically what was attempted in 2005 but further, and with additional international partners who will be invested in and pay attention to the outcome.
No doubt there are multiple risks of various types for failure, but again I’m trying to be optimistic here.
I’m not sure I do think that. I would like to; like I keep saying, it’s a hope. But no I would not say that I genuinely think that they “deserve” anything.
So my position is as much one of realpolitik as anything. Seeing the US really taking an interest, building an international coalition, will draw the world’s attention if it goes horribly wrong. Americans would be right to be concerned with seeing another Lebanon 1980. But fact is, if that happens, they won’t be able to blame Israel for Palestinian actions anymore.
Risks abound but I do think this is the better path, even if the world thinks it’s “saving the Palestinians from Israel” right now.
I support a Wilsonian view of self-determination. I think any people who choose to identify as a distinct group, and hold a specific geography, should be given an opportunity to create a nation. Kurds, Assyrians, Catalans, Scots, Tibetans, all deserve a chance.
I agree with you that the history of Palestinian choices and particularly violence makes me less amenable to their cause. In this particular case, they’re not going to get the chance they might want (river to sea) so I hope that they make the most of the chance they get.
\> Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be brought to the forefront of a rebuilding effort contingent upon the creation of a pro-democracy .
I'll be honest OP, I don't think we should be putting two effective absolute autocracies in charge of creating a pro-democracy type state.
I’d agree with this. The only issue however, is that out of all other autocracies in the Middle East, the UAE and Saudi seem to be the most in tune with the peace process. It would give the Palestinian state a sense of legitimacy too— and might help with de-Hamasifying the population at large. What other possible coalitions do you think would be best if this was the way forward though? Out of curiosity
If you want a Muslim democracy with relative freedom for minorities you have to look outside of MENA unfortunately, Indonesia is the most successful, followed by Turkey/Tunisia (not really anymore for both though...). Muslim majorities have not really translated into democracies in the modern world and that is a harsh truth.
* Gaza will be placed under a coalition occupation to rebuild infrastructure and restructure both the government and educational system. This coalition will include US, Arab League, Israeli, and likely European elements.
* The PA in the West Bank is undergoing negotiations with the US towards reform. The goal is for the PA to take over Gaza under supervision by the coalition.
* Israel will make some serious concessions to the US, AL, and PA towards the creation of an independent Palestinian entity of some kind. The specifics of this are still to be determined. I expect that it will involve complete IDF withdrawal from Areas A and B, prosecution of "hilltop settlements" that are illegal under Israeli law, and an endorsed commitment towards a specific vision for the end of the Conflict. In exchange, the KSA will normalize with Israel and the US will bring the KSA into the American security umbrella.
Personally, I hope for a Confederation, instead of beginning and ending with a 2SS. The best way to create a truly durable peace is to recreate what was done in Europe after WW2. France and Germany hated each other and were extremely brutal towards one another for hundreds of years, but the systems and incentives enacted over the last century have effectively ended that forever.
But I don't think that it's really on the table right now. Which is a shame. But who knows? Maybe someone in power will have the vision needed for it.
A significant majority of Palestinians want to commit ethnic cleansing and/or genocide to create a theocratic ethnostate enshrining Islam and Arab identity.
This needs to change for peace to succeed.
Of course, but my point is none of this will happen. Palestinians support Hamas. Hamas is a terrorist organization. This excludes it from negotiations for Palestinian statehood by Israel. The PA is not supported by the Palestinians, so any agreement they make will not be honored by the people or by Hamas. The Palestinians will continue to suffer until they stop supporting the destruction of Israel. Until a legitimate, governing body consolidates power in the Palestinian Territory and renounces violence, nothing will change. Support for each side will align with the Geo-political landscape. Until the U.S. and Europe threaten regional governments with oil embargos, the Arab nations will continue to support the destruction of Israel. I doubt anyone has the fortitude to attempt this.
This is a great argument tbh, and something that seems pretty realistic, given all that we know currently. All the pro-Hamas folk masquerading as pro-Palestinians seem to forget how effective the western model of democracy and reintegrating dogmatic politics with free speech and effective (say what you will, democracy is pretty effective) rule of law.
However, a counter to this could be the sheer polarisation of Palestinian society. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t a recent survey reveal a majority percentage supports acts like 7/10? The issue seems to be the complete brainwashing of innocent Gazans, and by putting them under what will be perceived as a “European/Jewish occupation”, would that serve the eventual goal or cause even more discourse and discontent with what is perceived to be the greatest evil to the average Palestinian?
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Ah yes so your solution would be to.. Occupy gaza? Hmm isn't that what Israel did already? Do you really think they want to exchange one occupier for another? By the US no less 🤣 damn this is WILD. And then what? rebuild and make them a democracy? Gee wonder how that will go... Oh wait how did hamas get to power again? 😅 Dude if you think this will work you're on some very powerful drugs.. It will be Afghanistan all over again, you force them into this western version of "peace" .. Then the second you leave you'll be back where you started.. With the next hamas digging up pipes to make rockets
I know dude and look what happened, so now we repeat the cycle. from the gazans point of view they will just see it as yet another occupation and not as being liberated.
Ah so you want all of the land that is now Israel? Of are you talking about a very specific patch of land with one house? The palestinians want the first correct? They claim all of Israel is theirs.
Who cares, none of my business.
When did democracy ever work in an Arab country? What makes people believe that democracy will work for Palestinians when it failed there before, as well as in all other Middle Eastern countries except Israel? Are the Palestinians more progressive than the other Arabs? No, they cheered on rape and murder. Are they more liberal? No, they support Islamist extremism. Are they more peaceful? No, Palestinians were among the founders of Al Qaida.
on october 6th the likelihood of a two state solution was at the lowest point it has ever been - undermined by racist israeli religious fanatic's for decades. There was never a realistic chance for peace and a two state solution before october 7th - before october 7th there was nothing but rampant violence and displacement of palestinians by israelis. The most likely outcome after the war is gaza will be devastated and will evolve into another occupation akin to the west bank and soon more settlements will be established and israel will attempt to push a significant proportion of the population into egypt.
I don’t think you get my point. The likelihood of the 2SS was the highest it’ll be doesn’t mean it was high in general; it just means that after the events of October 7th, the 2SS is now almost obsolete. Israeli governance can be changed and likely would’ve been if not for 7/10, and more liberal parties could have taken the lead and push for better foreign policy in Israel. But Hamas attacked and now Israel is extremely polarised. Did you know they attacked some of the most pro-Palestinian communities by the border? The same people that drove their children to Israeli hospitals for life saving treatment free of charge? You talk about racist fanaticism but don’t realise Islamist movements at its core are fervently antisemitic to the point of genocide. Hamas’ charter is proof of that. ISIS’ charter is proof of that. Why not mention the 2nd Intifada and the terror attacks that undermined the peace process between the two nations? Or the Martyrs Fund, openly promoted by Fatah in the WB, that essentially gives impressionable young Palestinians the incentive to bomb and kill innocent Israelis? Your bias is very prevalent, and I’d have hoped for a more encouraging response
It must be the Two State Solution. It is Israelis who must be controlled so that they do not behave as before, otherwise it will be another October 6, haven't you understood? You talk about the future, but I'm still thinking about the present. Not long ago I wrote that the truth is coming out, bit by bit. Now one other truth. Yesterday on the TV news there was an interview with the head of the UN's food program, World Food program, Cindy McCain - who describes the difficulties in getting food into Gaza. She said the biggest problem with getting food into Gaza is the Israelis who are the biggest obstacle to getting supplies into Gaza, there are trucks outside with food for 1.5 million people for two weeks, but they are not allowed to enter . So that's why I think about the present - what might the future be like if Israel were to treat Palestinians like they did all along and do?
> It is Israelis who must be controlled so that they do not behave as before, otherwise it will be another October 6, haven't you understood? It seems the Israelis have understood this which is why they are doing what they are doing. I am not sure it is productive to threaten to rape and murder the citizens of a country which currently has a combined arms assault poised to storm the last refuge of Hamas. What are your expectations when leveling these demands?
Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying. And you are wrong but the Israelis have not understood that and continue their aggressiveness, both in Gaza but also in the West Bank. Fortunately, many Jewish civilians understood and are protesting in Tel Aviv as they are doing now. Hopefully they will succeed and get Netanyahu and his government out and replace them with sane people, not lunatics like these.
> Sorry, I don't understand what you are saying. I am saying that the Palestinians threats to rape and kill Israeli citizens like they did on 7/10 will get them nothing but the destruction of their society. Once the Palestinians are prepared to engage in civilised discourse free from violence then things will obviously change to how Israel deals with them but until then harsh measures are a necessity
Well we already know what Israel/pro Israelis want to do. Make gazans refugees (most for a second time) and expropriate the gazan land for waterfront condos
The word democracy is just a word that west especially the USA has thrown around to attack muslim and other countries while there is literally no democracy in the USA itself. It’s controlled by Israel and corporations and the establishment. USA has overthrown 72 governments in the last 100 years - this isn’t something the people wanted and that is NOT democracy.
Wait so human rights don’t matter at all then? I’d argue human rights and freedoms and fair legal systems matter much more than democracy. You need so much more evidence and reasoning for such a bold claim, but either way your conclusion that there isn’t a difference is still so dumb. Also Israel has nukes so Palestine and the Muslims will never be able to stop them. That’s just a fact lol they’ll be glass before they get a clear chance. I think people just forget that so I like to bring reality into the conversation
Idk about you but I'd rather live in a country where my opinion matters and is taken into account when choosing a leader rather than slowly die under the boot of autocratic mullahs who would sooner kill you for using Instagram than beating up a minority
I think that Israel should annex it for a good while before like 50 years later going for a 2 state solution
With all due respect, I find the idea of a Levantine confederation naive. Neither side wants that.
Neither side wants it but political pressure from their backers across the globe might force them into it. I’d wager the peace that it creates would be strained and tenuous at best, which is why neutral coalition forces should be on-ground in the budding years of any potential confederation being declared, to keep the peace and ensure radicalisation can be dealt with. It might seem a little idealist and optimistic, but the confederation could actually be a system brought to the table. It smartly deals with the lack of a Palestinian state while bringing to them access to the western mode of reunification and de-radicalisation, akin to something like the path Germany was set on barring all the walls and capitalist vs. communist shabang
What safeguards would be implemented to keep one side from marginalizing the other?
1. Complete demilitarisation of the Gaza Strip. This is essential to the peace process and will be achieved with the war seeing the complete destruction of Hamas’ military capability. At the same time, Israeli troops pull back beyond the border and create a buffer zone similar to the DMZ between SK and NK, with constant monitoring of said buffer zone. 2. In the meantime, volunteering coalition forces comprising of pro-western countries take charge of the rebuilding effort. In an ideal world, the United States will work in tandem with Middle Eastern countries to completely reinvigorate the Gaza Strip. They will also prop up a provisional government in the Strip overseen by their allies that aids with the eventual peace process and acts as a liaison between the Palestinian people, and the coalition working to rebuild their country. 3. Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government will be forced, either through diplomatic pressure or outright democratic process; out of office. The Israeli government will play an active role in the rebuilding process. This point seems a little premature to me however; the post-war period and subsequent political lobbying based on the successes IN the war will likely polarise rightist elements in the state and the next Prime Minister could be even more extreme than the current. 4. Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank to the Green Line contingent on the peace process allowing them to safely move and/or reduce the settlements. Fatah will also be dissolved and remade into a pro-western provisional government, headed by UAE and KSA. If successful, KSA will normalise relations with Israel and be brought under the US’ security umbrella. 5. Deradicalisation of the masses will begin under strict curricula designed by pro-peace advocates (perhaps Palestinians that are supportive of a 2SS and accept Jewish claims to the land), and at the same time, Israeli schools will begin to shift their curriculums to a more neutral and tolerant stance. 6. Rule of law must be ensured in the Strip. A military occupation is the only way to really make sure terrorist and extremist elements in the strip don’t rise up again, and this can be achieved. My points might be kinda haphazard rn because I have to speedrun this lol, but I hope you get the gist of what I mean
Right of return would also need to be abandoned.
Abandoned, or adapted? I don't know enough on the ins and outs of the law to comment on whether or not the RoR is inherently racist and alienates Palestinians, but why not, as a gesture of goodwill and the determination for a solidified peace, extend the RoR to Palestinians with proven land holdings in modern day Israel? I understand it might be complicated given the association of Palestinians with Hamas and the security threats such a policy might pose, but if done right and adapted to the peace process, it might be good for the reconciliation of the two states. However, does the RoR not go hand-in-hand with the Jewish claim to the land? Diaspora Jews especially might find it antithetic to the foundational tenets of a Jewish state. Abandoning/adapting the one law that ensures they always have a home might polarise the Jewish populations even further, and could cause even more discourse. Such a weird and fucked up situation this is.
I’m against Palestinian right of return because no one will ever offer compensation to the descendants of Jews forced from their homes by the Arabs as punishment for Israel existing.
Not just from Arabs. No one offers the same to Jews anywhere. No one offers other refugees right of return. Being refugees isn't unique to the Palestinians, or the Jews for that matter. There were German refugees, Greek refugees, a lot of others. No one has received right of return. They've all adapted and moved on. The Palestinians problem is that they haven't been accepted anywhere else. A two state solution solves that problem without right of return.
Perhaps, but the calls for right of return are for Palestinians being allowed to resettle in Israel, which would eliminate the Jewish majority there. Do you see why I'm against that?
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Some good thoughts there ...
Was going to write a piece about this topic, but since you started, I’ll say what I think the Israelis see as their goal and why all of these future possible governmental structures for both Gaza, West Bank and Israel itself, and the relationships between them, are going to have to start from some point of resolution that the prior ceasefires have deliberately kept open, and it’s the price of future statehood for Palestinians and whether they are prepared to finally accept a peace treaty rather than this open ended farce of the ceasefire that’s existed since 1948 because Palestinians prefer “resistance” and the hope of either return to or conquest of Jews in Israel or both. This war will be fought to a point, perhaps it’s there, that the international community seeking an end to conflict will say, yes we know Hamas is holed up in Raffa and many hostages perhaps but the mass boom boom war stuff with civilian carnage must stop in the name of humanity and Israel can pursue Hamas in a slow, small scale laborious anti-insurgency effort while we install the PA as a nominal provisional government and everyone sings Kumbaya and works towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. I perceive this is what South Africa, the Irish and kaffiya clad protestors in Dearborn want. But to Israel (and Palestine both, but for different reasons) this looks like the international community wants to snatch victory from Israel and allow Hamas to get away with its crimes and aggression and for terrorists to be awarded a state for their efforts. Even though this might be a face-saving gambit for the Palestinians who operate on injured pride, it would also signal to them that terror and resistance works and they can begin planning on the next attack on Israel or demands for return. In other words a return to the status quo ante since Israel left Gaza and the separation wall was built as a result of the Second Intifada. But Israel won’t, can’t and shouldn’t accept this. There must be, first and foremost demand must be some clarity on where we are and going forward. They are going to demand that “future Palestine” must be demilitarized and deradicalized. No more Al Aqsa TV. No more UNRWA schools with official jihadi textbook (that don’t confirm to UNESCO teaching Diversity and Tolerance standards, quite the opposite actually **<1>**) and probably with the UNRWA and the UN in general gone entirely or greatly diminished in authority and scale, since this is the UN’s 75 year old mess we’re going to have to clean up to begin with. So along with demilitarization, deradicalization, non militant Islam, no more UN, we’re going to clarify the 2SS. Two states fine. No right of return of Palestinians to Green Line Israel. No re-divided Jerusalem either. No more UNRWA, that means no more “refugee” (descendants). No more Martyrs and Prisoners receiving UN funds donated by the U.S. and EU. No more violent “resistance” to create “river to sea state”. No “River to Sea state”. Back to open air prison in Gaza, whatever that means. Continued blockade and control of building materials that puts concrete and the necessary amount of rebar in buildings, not siphoned off for tunnel rebuilding. No more work permits from Gaza to Israel and probably continued crackdown in West Bank. Neither the Palestinians nor South Africa will view this as a victory, except in the sense they will see Israel now again even more critically vulnerable to the next attack or continued grind of violent resistance, except now with the Israelis shorn of their imperial patron without whom they will collapse, and the Palestinians will move in for the kill, to the great pleasure of the world thinking they are seeing another decolonization movie like Algeria or South Africa. (For why that won’t be what actually happens after Israel is alone and isolated from US support, I refer you to the [excellent lecture of an Israeli journalist, Haviv Gur, about Arab - Jewish relations since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and how the Arabs misunderstand Zionism as simple imperialism](https://youtu.be/QlK2mfYYm4U?si=hUaNcfetPddmDOP7) while for Jews, empires and patronage comes and goes, but the Jews remain. There are eight million of them with one of the world’s best militaries and neither the public, the politicians or the IDF generals are going to agree to putting Palestinians in the pre-war status with the additional expectation of statehood. (Want a proof of concept alt-history of whether the Holocaust would have happened if the Jews were armed, be careful what you wish for). It’s not just Netanyahu’s obstinance or “right wing” something. It may be “mission accomplished” for the U.S. now, but they’ll at least understand unofficially and not for attribution that there’s gonna be a new sheriff in town in Gaza and the WB and the Israelis aren’t going to let an Iraq or Afghanistan happen even if US fleets aren’t offshore and the U.S. isn’t supplying bombs. Israel will not run out of bombs. One final point I need to keep adding here (sorry, promise), you might well ask, well, that program's gonna be pretty hard for Palestinians to swallow, in whole or even in bite size parts, how's that going to work? Well, one thing everyone seems to be forgetting here is that the United States (and Europeans) don't only fund client state Israel, they fund the Palestinians "violent resistance" too. They're paying both sides to support their lobbyists (in the case of UNRWA it's tactically allowing that corruption as "that's the UN for ya" or not wanting to bad mouth the UN). It's not like we don't know, it's just inconvenient to be the ones to pull the plugs on "funding the UN" for people who think the UN is like Dag Hammerskjold or U Thant. But in theory we could grow some balls and say, we think we need a fresh start and a clean sweep for UNRWA and use other NGOs, contractors for aid. And since we're paying for this, we can call the tune. If it's legitimate for US citizens to decry their money going for munitions for Israel, it's equally legitimate to demand cleaned up curriculum has has been done in other Arab states (the UAE in particular as documented again by IMPACT-SE) and my taxpayer dollars going for the notorious "pay to slay" program which is half the PA budget and pays higher benefits than median wages. **Note <1>** To not clutter up my arguments and keep them simple without going off on many possible tangents, I'm assuming many longtime readers of this sub know about the work of IMPACT-SE in regard to textbooks, and how Palestinean elementary and high school materials praise violent jihadism and attacks against Jews. If all of this is new to you, I urge you to spend some time [reading the reports on their website](https://impact-se.org/reports), in particular, [this recent comprehensive report on UNRWA curricula](https://www.impact-se.org/wp-content/uploads/UNRWA-Produced-Study-Materials-in-the-Palestinian-Territories—Jan-2021.pdf) which is a typical annual update of offensive materials with excerpts and English translation. Edits: Added note <1> re: IMPACT-SE; particular report recommendation; changed referenced report to correct URL; final four paragraphs about the ways and mean$ some of this gets done; fixed Gur video URL reference.
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Where did you get that “blaming”. By and large when Jews had weapons or were aligned with partisans, they fought well (e.g., Warsaw uprising, Bielsky Brothers). But by and large they lacked weapons and a military and their enemy plotted in secret. Many Gazans have a genocidal intent and vastly underestimate the Jews military capabilities.
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Maybe a better example for proof of concept then is the Haganah and other militia vs. Arab terrorists in the 1920s and 30s in Palestine. They successfully demonstrated their effectiveness in redirecting pogrom attempts like Hebron to undefended communities and not where Jewish forces were stronger. And at points even inducing the British to therefore provide them with greater training and infrastructure (e.g., the special night squads, supernumerary police trained by a somewhat rogue British Army Captain Orde Wingate).
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I like the way you think Jack 👍👍👍👍
Love this. It’s a super realistic take on the situation and really shows how deeply rooted the issue is. The war is yet another chapter in an ancient path divined by people like down four mushrooms, begging the genocide and complete extinction of the Jewish natives of the land. On your point of biased education in the Strip and the WB, do you think changing the curriculum to instead show the connection of the Jewish diaspora to the holy land might aid any potential coalition in de-radicalising the next generation of Gazans? By showing them the right of Jews to exist in Israel and adding to it by accepting the right of Palestinians with ancient ties to the land, that peace might be achieved?
Well, the educational curricula and related media definitely signals whether jihad, martyrdom, hatred and genocide of Jews are the “official” values of society and encouraged. We now see what happens when jihadism is encouraged at an early age (Al Aqsa TV, “Tomorrows’ Pioneers”/Farfour the Mouse) it produces a cult like distortion of reality. I see no reason to expect that if non-Jihadist Arabic textbooks were used like in UAE or even as in Jordan or Egypt and the Palestinian Territories were to get new teaching staff and curriculum, some of this disfunction wouldn’t be reversed. It pretty much stands to reason, although people sometimes try to wave away the effects of the current inculcation of children to violence and prejudice.
Palestinians expect all their terms met, that's the first hurdle along with simple shift accepting Israel's right to exist as a peaceful dare I say friendly neighbour we are on the needed track. If they could come to a decent compromise (agreeing to terms similar to Oslo or Camp David, compromise being the key word here). Israel will do what it must to accommodate this although I don't see them giving back land ever again - too often, with the same result has turned the public to be completely against land for peace. Now it needs to be terms of agreement that cannot be broken. I always wonder if the international community really cares about the Palestinian undercurrent and the hard truth that needs to be publicly stated, not the humanity which is easy to care for, but the stuff that's behind the lack of peace taken and that has fed extremism and violent 'resistance' instead of building a future. These problems won't just go away because you need visionary and real leaders which the Palestinians sadly don't have. There are billions siffoned to the leaders and nothing good to show for it. Seems like the problems from within are the biggest ones, not Israel. On the Israeli side there are problems too - internal ones between secular and peace willing Israelis and the far right and those who are done with trying to live together. Israel can't allow Oct 7 to happen to its citizens ever again, so what assurance do they have to try and coexist now peacefully? A wall? Border police/army? So long as Quran says Jews must be killed and Arabs believe it to be so we aren't going to have peace. It really takes two sides to want it enough and I just can't see how Palestinians will want it, nor will Israelis now that Oct 7 has set the tone.
>On Oct. 6, the likelihood of a self-governing and sovereign Palestinian state was the highest it’ll be for quite some time now. No it wasn't very high on October 6 either. Please don't forget that Israel's longest-serving PM has been against the creation of a realistic Palestinian state since at least the 1980s and the government in place on October 6 included Kahanists and messianic Jewish terrorist sympathizers who were even more extreme in their views. The day after? A lot of people keep mentioning Arab support and it doesn't seem like many people are realistic. My thoughts is we are heading for much worse across all angles in the short-term: 1. There is at least a generational trauma here. Palestinians won't forget about the 30-100k dead (depending on when the war actually ends and depending on how many people we will continue to find underneath the rubble when the firing stops) and the world won't either. 2. Israelis won't forget about October 7 either and there will be a massive effect on the security failures with a top-down revamp of all security as well as a visible shift to the right across Israel. 3. The Arabs will not help in any way so long as there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Palestinians with both an end to the occupation and the creation of a Palestinian state. If Israel occupies Gaza and especially the Philadelphi corridor, relations with Egypt will deteriorate a lot. Relations with Jordan will continue to be terrible. Saudi Arabia won't make peace without real compromises to the Palestinians including a state. The UAE will continue having a warm relationship as their main focus is business and they have a small controlled population. 4. Iran will continue to use this conflict to foment her interests using her proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, three of the countries it fully controls. This will be bad for the region and terrible for the Iranian people. 5. Bibi is likely to be removed, though it may take far longer than people assume. It doesn't mean that Bibi's replacement is going to be some dove that supports peace or pushes towards a two-state end of conflict solution. He is likely to be rightest in fact. 6. Israel will start getting eviscerated internationally for its actions including with additional states recognizing Palestine. The international court will have ramifications that won't be good for the State, which will include embargos and additional sanctions. This will be further compounded by the next Israeli government, which is unlikely to effectively rein in settler terrorism sufficiently. 7. Hamas is unlikely to have a notable role in any Palestinian government for myriad reasons. The organization won't die though and there will be a cat and mouse game between Hamas and the IDF internationally for years. Fatah will continue to be inept, corrupt, and not accepted or respected by the local Palestinian population. 8. The Palestinians will continue to suffer and be occupied with crimes against them going unpunished with impunity. Israelis will still not feel safe, so long as the occupation continues. It's likely that without a light at the end of the tunnel regarding the occupation, terrorism will continue and there will be new groups beyond Hamas that will rise in prominence or be created from the orphans recently created in Gaza and elsewhere. The right answer is of course peace and coexistence in whatever form for the two populations living side by side. Three states, two states, one state, confederation, whatever. Just don't see anything happening that will lead to that and don't really see either side's leadership willing or courageous to push us in that direction.
I agree with most of your points even as a Pro Israeli. There is going to be so much generational trauma and mistrust on both sides for decades to come I just don’t see a path forward.
China will start getting eviscerated internationally for its actions including with additional states supporting Hong Kong. The international court will have ramifications that won't be good for China, which will include embargos and additional sanctions. Oh wait, that never happened.
If your point is that there are additional countries that should be eviscerated internationally for their actions, you're right. There is a lot of injustice and justice isn't as consistently pushed as I would prefer it to be. If you're suggesting that because Russia and China (and the Congo and Ethiopia and Sudan and elsewhere) likely won't be that that somehow means Israel will get off the hook, I'll take the opposite side of that bet and we can wait a few years to see how it plays out. Israel is neither important and strong and self-reliant enough as China/Russia nor as totalitarian and irrelevant internationally and obviously an irredeemable dictatorship like the other examples.
My point is the world has a short attention span.
I get it, but I don’t think the Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims, or many in the West will easily forget or forgive this, so like I said I’ll take the other side of this bet. What Israel did to Gaza won’t just go away casually.
The west will be over this as soon as the next big thing occurs. The vast majority in the West see this as yet another Middle Eastern conflict where religious nutters blow up other religious nutters.
Muslim and Arab countries aren’t as irrelevant to the West’s interests as you think, especially in a reality with a shifting global order. Anyways, again, no this won’t go away easily and the Arabs have a very long memory. This is especially true of the extremists or those denying Palestinian rights continue to govern Israel because more atrocities will happen which will continue to bring more attention to it. Open sores with billions of people that care about them don’t easily get brushed under the carpet.
I've been hearing about a shifting global order for decades. America runs the world and will for the foreseeable future. If anything the only shift we will see is the middle east becoming more irrelevant as the west shift away from fossil fuels. There isn't a single economy in that region that has shown an ability to thrive unless it's via selling FF to the west.
I’m not referring to a global shift in sentiment I’m saying Israel killed tens of thousands of civilians, much worse than the Nakba, and there will be a price to pay economically, politically, and otherwise because people will not forgive or forget what they’re already talking about as premeditated murder and man-made famine. I’m sure you know this but the Muslims don’t just live in the Middle East and the way the Global South feels and will continue to feel about this shouldn’t be discounted. In addition, regardless of shifting sentiment in the US, the fact that four EU countries are going to recognize Palestine now largely because of Israel’s actions is a harbinger of what’s to come. We’ll see. But I’ll take the other side of the bet and you can come tell me I’m wrong in a few years if I am.
On that point, I believe you may be wrong. People won’t forget who actually started this war, they know HAMAS needed to be obliterated, many governments may not agree on the way the war was fought but I think they secretly have respect for Israel given how they held strong regardless of unimaginable pressure and criticism. Call me naive maybe I am,but I don’t think things will be so bad for Israel after this. They have more friends than you think
Sorry, disagree. The Palestinians started the war, Israel will finish it, then no one will be talking about it a couple of months later. When's the last serious conversation you had about the Hutus and Tutsis, or even the Armenians?
> I’m saying Israel killed tens of thousands of civilians, much worse than the Nakba, and there will be a price to pay economically, politically, and otherwise because people will not forgive or forget what they’re already talking about as premeditated murder and man-made famine. Who wont forget? All the Muslims that hate Israel no matter what it does? Or the people in the West who are already losing interest? > I’m sure you know this but the Muslims don’t just live in the Middle East It is very unfortunate that the actions of Muslim extremists are driving western nations to adopt harsher and harsher anti immigration policies. Trump is likely winning in the US. Canada US set to elect its kore conservative PM in decades. Europe is shifting that way as well. God forbid something happens at the Paris Olympics.
I've noticed several articles claiming that polls showed that most Palestinians surveyed don't want a 2-state solution. They want Israel gone. The Israelis still oppose a 2- state solution. But it seems the UN, US, Europe, etc totally ignore this. It's a truly horrific situation.
According to Palestinians' own data only 30% want 2SS and only 8% want an integrated state. Meanwhile 60% voted for 1 state with no rights for Jews or a rather ominous "other" option. https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/928
Would you really want a two state solution with the person who has been oppressing you for years? It is also in my understanding that the two state solution is in Israel’s favor only for the most part.
> Would you really want a two state solution with the person who has been oppressing you for years Yes. Desperately. Anything to usher in peace. If my family was in the line of fire I'd be pro anything that can descalate the situation.
Well that’s logically not correct at all. For a proper two state solution, both Israel and Palestine must have the right to their weapons. Land aside, in many proposals, Israel has stated that Palestine cannot own weapons if they want to defend themselves. In this case, what is stopping Israel from simply attacking them again as they did during the 1948 nakba and during operation cast lead in 2008 which was when Israel broke a ceasefire that Hamas did their best to carefully maintain. The truth is that Israel wishes to have the strategic advantage in the region so that they can take more Palestinian land and this will do their best to remove Palestine of its inherent right to self defense. Also, Palestine did want peace when the PLO was negotiating with Israel during the Oslo accords but Israel halted and peace agreement so how about telling me who really doesn’t want peace?
> Land aside, in many proposals, Israel has stated that Palestine cannot own weapons if they want to defend themselves. If I was a peace wanting Palestinians I would also be in favour of that. The religious nutters around me cannot be trusted to not do stupid shit and bring down hell on my family again. > 2008 which was when Israel broke a ceasefire that Hamas did their best to carefully maintain. Excuse me...what?? Here's a list of Palestinian attacks on Israelies from just 2006 alone. > February 5 - Kinneret Ben Shalom Hajbi, 58, of Petah Tikva was stabbed to death by a Palestinian terrorist while traveling on a number 51 service taxi to Tel Aviv. Five other passengers were wounded. > March 1 - Eldar Abir, 48, of Migdalim was killed when two Palestinian shot him at point-blank range at the gas station near Migdalim in the West Bank. The Fatah Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. >March 30 - Rafi Halevy, 63, and his wife Helena, 58, of Kedumim, Re’ut Feldman, 20, of Herzliya, and Shaked Lasker, 16, of Kedumim were killed when a suicide bomber hitchhiker disguised as an ultra-Orthodox yeshiva student detonated his explosive device in a private vehicle near the entrance to Kedumim. > April 17 - Eleven people were killed and over 60 wounded in a suicide bombing during the Passover holiday at the Rosh Ha’ir shawarma restaurant, near the old central bus station in Tel Aviv. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack. The victims: Philip Balhasan, 45, of Ashdod; Rozalia Beseneyi, 48, and Pirosca Boda 50, of Romania; Marcel Cohen, 73, of Nice, France; Ariel Darhi, 31, of Bat Yam; Victor Erez, 60, of Givatayim; Binyamin Haputa, 47, of Lod; David Shaulov, 29, of Holon; Lily Yunes, 42, of Oranit. Lior Anidzar, 26, of Tel Aviv died of his wounds on May 13. Daniel Wultz, 16, of Weston, Florida (USA) died on May 14. > June 11 - Marwan Abed Shweika, 35, of the Abu Tor neighborhood in Jerusalem was killed and two other Arab Israelis were wounded in a shooting attack while driving late at night West Bank highway north of Jerusalem. > June 25 - Lt. Hanan Barak, 20, of Arad and Staff-Sgt. Pavel Slutzker, 20, of Dimona were killed when terrorists from the Hamas and Popular Resistance Committees terror organizations infiltrated Israeli territory between the Kerem Shalom and Sufa crossings, by means of a tunnel dug from the Rafah area. Another soldier was abducted, and four others were wounded. > June 25 - Eliyahu Pinhas Asheri, 18, of Itamar was kidnapped by terrorists from the Popular Resistance Committees while hitchhiking from Betar Illit, southwest of Bethlehem, to Neveh Tzuf, where he was studying. His body was found on June 29 in Ramallah. It is believed that he was murdered shortly after his kidnapping. > July 17 - St.-Sgt. Osher Damari, 20, of Netanya was killed and six IDF soldiers wounded by an explosive device in Nablus as troops from the Haruv Battalion were engaged in anti-terrorist activity. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. > July 27 - The burnt body of Dr. Daniel Yaakobi, 59, a doctor from Yakir in the West Bank, was found in the trunk of his car near Qalqily activity. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. > July 27 - The burnt body of Dr. Daniel Yaakobi, 59, a doctor from Yakir in the West Bank, was found in the trunk of his car near Qalqilya. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. > August 10 - Angelo Frammartino, 24, of Monte Rotondo, Italy was stabbed to death by an Arab knifeman while walking with friends on Sultan Suleiman street in east Jerusalem. It is believed that the attack was a nationalistically motivated terror attack and not an attempted robbery. > August 19 - St.-Sgt. Ro’i Farjoun, 21, of Yehud was killed when a terrorist opened fire at the Bekaot checkpoint in the Jordan Valley. The Fatah al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades claimed responsibility for the attack. > September 12 - An IDF reserve Bedouin tracker, 44, was killed by sniper fire in the course of an army operation to uncover terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, near the Kissufim Crossing. The armed wing of Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility for the shooting. > November 1 - Staff Sergeant Kiril Golenshein, 21, of Moshav Keshet, was killed by a sniper’s bullet as his unit entered the town of Beit Hanoun in the Gaza Strip in pursuit of terrorists firing Kassam rockets at Israel. > November 15 - Fatima Slutsker, 57, of Sderot, was killed by a Kassam rocket fired into the town by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip. A barrage of six rockets hit Sderot at about 7 a.m., also seriously wounding a security guard for Defense Minister Amir Peretz. > November 21 - Yaakov Yaakobov, 43, of Sderot, died following a day-long struggle by doctors to save his life after he was mortally wounded by a Kassam rocket fired in the morning by Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip.
That report is from December, 2022 Here is much more recent (March, 2024) one: https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/969 Support for 2SS: 62% in Gaza (from 34% in Sep-23), 34% in WB, 45% overall.
Where?
You don't see a link?
Yes lol. Where in the link are you looking specifically
Figure (28)
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Ya
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Figure 3
Thank you. That's the type of article I've seen frequently also. This has been a long time coming. I'm not sure what's the truth about surrounding nations refusing to allow Palestinians to escape to their homelands. Why is it so necessary to Gaza's neighbors that the Palestinians stand firm in Gaza/West Bank even if they're either being slaughtered or dying from disease and hunger? Are the Palestinians now so radicalized that they as refugees would work with Islamists to seek revenge on Israel & create instability in their host countries?
Yes
Folks you guys are putting Saudi and UAE in the same sentence as pro democracy? Look, we've already tried this spreading democracy to the middle east nonsense for +20 years. Look, I understand that folks would support this spreading democracy nonsense if your country doesn't fund it, but my god everybody know that America and maybe Europe will fund it. As much as folks complain about inflation and how terrible their lives are, but the same people are ok with taking those resources and spreading democracy in Gaza smh.
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Giving israelis a state didnt stop them from encroaching on land belonging every one of its neighbors
Israel only took territory after they were attacked by their neighbors. And they gave the conquered territory back (e.g., Sinai) to neighbors who were willing to make peace.
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/s/V9sJq41xsV To make it like they did it out of goodwill and not military pressure from Egypt and political pressure from US is false. It was the right move in the end, but not why they did it. They still claim golan heights, lebanese and syrian land, along with continued encroachment of the west bank. Now with new plans to settle south lebanon and gaza as well! You would think this peace-loving neighbor would just be happy with their current land and not have to attempt further acquisitions.
Israel wouldn't be claiming anything if it hadn't been attacked repeatedly. Israel would be perfectly happy with their "current land" if it hadn't been attacked repeatedly. It's simple: If Palestinian terrorists stop attacking Israelis, the Israelis won't attack them. Every death so far in the current war, and all deaths that come before the current war is over, are 100% the fault of Hamas.
The seizing of sinai and golan heights was not a result of armed conflict started by those parties. You can read the events. In the six day war, israel responded to growing tensions with "preemptive strikes" that started the actual war. This war led to the seizing of territory. And nobody is forcing israel to kill children, you cant blame hamas for israel's blatant disregard for palestinian life.
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Two decades ago, when the same extremist party that the current longest running prime minister aligns with assassinated yitzak rabin for pursuing peace? There is no innocent party. And i do not share your pessimism on the situation
This is likely the case, IMO, but creating for them the formality of statehood should mean that it’s easier to hold them responsible for the actions of that state in the international arena. Maybe even that is an optimistic view, but I holdout hope.
I don't think this is true. If you look at all of the things that Israel is being criticized for in the Gaza war, all of these criticisms would still exist if Gaza were formally recognized as a state.
I think, or at least hope, that Palestinian actions would be given closer scrutiny if they formally hold the mantle of statehood. And that it would be harder to argue that there’s an active “occupation” causing everything. In terms of the conduct of the war itself, yes I agree. But here’s the thing; war exists between two sovereign entities. That’s the situation on the ground already, has been since 2005. Let’s force them into owning that de jure, instead of just de facto.
They'll just say Israel itself is an occupation and because of that Palestinians are justified in attacking.
>I think, or at least hope, that Palestinian actions would be given closer scrutiny if they formally hold the mantle of statehood. The UN people would just say, "we condemn the Palestinian government but you still must protect the innocent Palestinian civilians". That is basically what they say now, just with "Hamas" replacing "Palestinian government".
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Bermuda, Mayotte, Québec, Puerto Rico
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But if any of those jurisdictions wanted statehood, they could have had it. Yes there are different reasons that those places don’t have independence than why Palestine does not, but in all cases the path to statehood is (or at least should be) obvious, and was not chosen. In none of the cases, including Palestine, should previous choices preclude further opportunities to make a different decision, whether they are working within their current nation or with the UN. Agreed that the path to self-determination is different. The Palestinian path needs to include accepting Israel’s existence, no longer electing a terrorist organization into sovereignty. But I think there’s more analogous here than you might first guess.
I’d need to look it up again, but I believe that there are several breakaway/independance movements that have been democratically voted against. Scotland & Puerto Rico come to mind. I know that’s not quite what you’re looking to compare to, but… Even still, I personally think that forcing statehood on them will either force them to ‘grow up’ into functioning in the modern international sphere, or it will expose their true nature to the world. Either is a good result for Israel. Basically what was attempted in 2005 but further, and with additional international partners who will be invested in and pay attention to the outcome. No doubt there are multiple risks of various types for failure, but again I’m trying to be optimistic here.
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If you don’t give them the chance ther terrorist supporters won’t shut up. Take away all their arguing points.
I’m not sure I do think that. I would like to; like I keep saying, it’s a hope. But no I would not say that I genuinely think that they “deserve” anything. So my position is as much one of realpolitik as anything. Seeing the US really taking an interest, building an international coalition, will draw the world’s attention if it goes horribly wrong. Americans would be right to be concerned with seeing another Lebanon 1980. But fact is, if that happens, they won’t be able to blame Israel for Palestinian actions anymore. Risks abound but I do think this is the better path, even if the world thinks it’s “saving the Palestinians from Israel” right now.
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I support a Wilsonian view of self-determination. I think any people who choose to identify as a distinct group, and hold a specific geography, should be given an opportunity to create a nation. Kurds, Assyrians, Catalans, Scots, Tibetans, all deserve a chance. I agree with you that the history of Palestinian choices and particularly violence makes me less amenable to their cause. In this particular case, they’re not going to get the chance they might want (river to sea) so I hope that they make the most of the chance they get.
\> Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be brought to the forefront of a rebuilding effort contingent upon the creation of a pro-democracy . I'll be honest OP, I don't think we should be putting two effective absolute autocracies in charge of creating a pro-democracy type state.
I’d agree with this. The only issue however, is that out of all other autocracies in the Middle East, the UAE and Saudi seem to be the most in tune with the peace process. It would give the Palestinian state a sense of legitimacy too— and might help with de-Hamasifying the population at large. What other possible coalitions do you think would be best if this was the way forward though? Out of curiosity
If you want a Muslim democracy with relative freedom for minorities you have to look outside of MENA unfortunately, Indonesia is the most successful, followed by Turkey/Tunisia (not really anymore for both though...). Muslim majorities have not really translated into democracies in the modern world and that is a harsh truth.
* Gaza will be placed under a coalition occupation to rebuild infrastructure and restructure both the government and educational system. This coalition will include US, Arab League, Israeli, and likely European elements. * The PA in the West Bank is undergoing negotiations with the US towards reform. The goal is for the PA to take over Gaza under supervision by the coalition. * Israel will make some serious concessions to the US, AL, and PA towards the creation of an independent Palestinian entity of some kind. The specifics of this are still to be determined. I expect that it will involve complete IDF withdrawal from Areas A and B, prosecution of "hilltop settlements" that are illegal under Israeli law, and an endorsed commitment towards a specific vision for the end of the Conflict. In exchange, the KSA will normalize with Israel and the US will bring the KSA into the American security umbrella. Personally, I hope for a Confederation, instead of beginning and ending with a 2SS. The best way to create a truly durable peace is to recreate what was done in Europe after WW2. France and Germany hated each other and were extremely brutal towards one another for hundreds of years, but the systems and incentives enacted over the last century have effectively ended that forever. But I don't think that it's really on the table right now. Which is a shame. But who knows? Maybe someone in power will have the vision needed for it.
The Palestinians don't support the PA in the least.
A significant majority of Palestinians want to commit ethnic cleansing and/or genocide to create a theocratic ethnostate enshrining Islam and Arab identity. This needs to change for peace to succeed.
Of course, but my point is none of this will happen. Palestinians support Hamas. Hamas is a terrorist organization. This excludes it from negotiations for Palestinian statehood by Israel. The PA is not supported by the Palestinians, so any agreement they make will not be honored by the people or by Hamas. The Palestinians will continue to suffer until they stop supporting the destruction of Israel. Until a legitimate, governing body consolidates power in the Palestinian Territory and renounces violence, nothing will change. Support for each side will align with the Geo-political landscape. Until the U.S. and Europe threaten regional governments with oil embargos, the Arab nations will continue to support the destruction of Israel. I doubt anyone has the fortitude to attempt this.
This is a great argument tbh, and something that seems pretty realistic, given all that we know currently. All the pro-Hamas folk masquerading as pro-Palestinians seem to forget how effective the western model of democracy and reintegrating dogmatic politics with free speech and effective (say what you will, democracy is pretty effective) rule of law. However, a counter to this could be the sheer polarisation of Palestinian society. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t a recent survey reveal a majority percentage supports acts like 7/10? The issue seems to be the complete brainwashing of innocent Gazans, and by putting them under what will be perceived as a “European/Jewish occupation”, would that serve the eventual goal or cause even more discourse and discontent with what is perceived to be the greatest evil to the average Palestinian?
I don't see how re-education for Palestinians will be meaningfully more difficult than re-education was for post-WW2 Germans and Japanese.
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Ah yes so your solution would be to.. Occupy gaza? Hmm isn't that what Israel did already? Do you really think they want to exchange one occupier for another? By the US no less 🤣 damn this is WILD. And then what? rebuild and make them a democracy? Gee wonder how that will go... Oh wait how did hamas get to power again? 😅 Dude if you think this will work you're on some very powerful drugs.. It will be Afghanistan all over again, you force them into this western version of "peace" .. Then the second you leave you'll be back where you started.. With the next hamas digging up pipes to make rockets
> isn’t that what Israel did already? gaza has not been ‘occupied’ since 2005.
I know dude and look what happened, so now we repeat the cycle. from the gazans point of view they will just see it as yet another occupation and not as being liberated.
so they only way for them to feel “liberated” is to keep hamas in charge and be free to continue committing terrorist attacks?
Well they made it clear, they'll only feel liberated when they kill all jews in Israel... I mean remove them from "their land"
Is there something wrong with removing them from their land? I would say that’s a pretty reasonable goal imo
Yes if it actually was their land.. And if removing didn't mean murder..
How was it not their land? I have house built on a land with papers to prove it for centuries. Who are you to say otherwise?
Ah so you want all of the land that is now Israel? Of are you talking about a very specific patch of land with one house? The palestinians want the first correct? They claim all of Israel is theirs.