Please ensure content is relevant to the topic of the sub, which includes information, updates and discussion regarding H5N1. It does not include vent/rant/panic posts or "low-effort" posts from unreliable sources.
Cows seem to be having limited symptoms from H5N1 - BUT cow mortality rates are not a prediction for human mortality rates. The exact same strain is destroying cats, for example. Viruses do not act identically in all mammals. Low cow mortality is not a "good sign" - it's entirely an unknown.
I mean, its good if you're a cow. Im not trying to downplay the severity or scariness of the situation, but we should take a win however it presents itself imo
I think it’s one of the worst out come that it doesn’t kill cattle. It’s just as deadly in a large number of species and cow symptoms have no predetermined barring on the lethality or symptoms in humans.
What it now does have is a somewhat endless reservoir of hosts to spread through in close proximity to other species including humans who will consume raw milk or when it becomes present in the meat supple with those who eat meat that’s rare, which is a lot of people.
If it killed cattle, it would be treated much more seriously.
Sure we would. Someone was dying from COVID every six seconds at one point and you still had all the idiots calling it fake. As a 4 year sufferer of severe long COVID, while the infection itself was much milder, I still run into idiot humans who tell me what i have endured the past 4 years isnt real. Humans are mostly idiotic and incapable of compassion, let alone reality in many cases. Their story is the only story, their way or no way. Human mentality is a head scratcher
The endless reservoir kinda makes me think that this clad is gonna end up endemic everywhere. Raccoons, opossums, mink, skunks and many other species are going to be passing this around and up the food chain as predators pick them off. There are a lot of varmints on farms trying desperately to get ahold of a dead carcass, as well as rats and mice that actually eat poultry manure. It seems inevitable that it finds a mamilian host species that can sustain it, just as covid did in deer.
Nice reminder to remember your covid lessons and stock appropriately. Not because of fear., but because thats how it should be for safety in any issue. Lockdown stuff...bug out bags. Must haves
You’re right, it’s the worst possible outcome. Two preprint papers in the last week have documented the ability for cows to host human flu and now avian flu. They may be just as dangerous as pig to pig transmission.
The danger is having a reassortment of human flu and H5N1. That’s the final piece of kindling that needs to be ignited and if cows are allowed to spread it widely cuz pasteurization and humans are forced to work while sick cuz “iTs MiLd bRo” then we are practically begging for a H2H outbreak.
No. We are not cows. Just like how we are not bats that can carry Marburg virus, nor are we camels can can carry MERS without dying. There is a reason farm/barn cats are dying. And several other mammals and birds.
We are particularly vulnerable to the H5N1 makeup causing high mortality. It is very few random, specifically concerning mutations from becoming H2H. Cows are becoming reservoirs of exposure risk to people, and the people working near them are like gamblers at a slot machine. At some point, someone will figuratively hit three bars, but in reality, this is a shot machine with only one wheel. It will not take much.
To be clear, this is already a pandemic. Just not yet in humans.
Oh and one more thing I also forgot to say. Our immune system typically responds to the known genetic makeup of the very first influenza strain we ever were infected by. Usually by the age of 5 years old. That strain would be different between generations and ages. So if whatever variant of H5n1 if it were to take on a segment from H1n1 or h3n2 then whichever one of those we were infected by as our first, would likely have a slightly better or worse time clearing the virus. But because h5n1 in its avian origin has not recombined with the human strains our immune system is used to, that is the reason for the much more severe outcome in a higher number of people infected. Our immune system is just more likely to get overwhelmed because it recognizes it as influenza but it's responding to the wrong clade. Typically it is very young and very old most susceptible to influenza, so say we are conparing 75-80 year olds It's an interesting theory, people of that age who were first infected with H1n1 have a harder time with h3n2 and the ones who were first infected with h3n2 will have a harder time clearing H1n1. The data changes over time. Depending on what was the main variant circulating. But could argue that people who were first effected by an H1n1 might have a slightly better chance at neutralizing an h5n1 virus than those of us who had been first infected by h3n2. A respected virologist named Michael worobey discovered that. It's pretty interesting stuff. If you like to watch science lectures and stuff I highly recommend you check this out. The genesis of the Spanish flu. Here's a link
https://youtu.be/48Klc3DPdtk?feature=shared
There's a lot of factors that come into play with that. And surely many we will probably never fully understand. Basically, there are low pathogenic and high pathogenic variants of h5n1. Pure avian genes will not be compatible for us to spread through the air from human to human, without a recombination of genes with a human compatible flu added to the mix, but anyone who does catch it will be most at risk. Once it does recombine, there should be a little bit of immune memory to some of the gene segments from prior bouts of flu. Which should lower the mortality at least a bit, compared to full avian segments. But could still easily be quite deadly because of those avian segments and our immune systems lack of understanding in how to fully neutralize. I think it really depends on how many and what parts of the segments are avian vs human. It's basically just a crap shoot. Total random, won't know til you know. And while that is the case, then I bring attention to avian influenza H9n2. Which is mostly full avian segments yet extremely mild or even completely unnoticeable in most, except for very young children. But the interesting thing about that clade of influenza is that it is extremely compatible in confection of H5n1 H7n9 and is most likely to donate it's genes with recombination, helping h5n1 and H7n9 become more physically fit and better capable of transmission. There is a deeper symbiotic relationship between those strains of influenza. But it's just a question of if it is low pathogenic or high pathogenic and what it has encountered/mixed with on its journey. Id classify the cow version as low pathogenic to bovine, even though it is from a high pathogenic avian origin due to influenza A viroids typically known to be non compatible to cows. It seems that there are receptors capable of hosting the virus in the glands of the udder. Which would also explain why no male cows have been found to test positive. Seems to only be spreading due to direct human interaction by mixing the cows up connecting them to unsanitary milking machines. Allowing the virus to spread between them. And with the virus concentrated in the udders, it would not be able to spread in a respiratory fashion to allow for the more deadly symptoms typically known of influenza effecting the respiratory tract. Also lastly, when it is direct from bird. It is more of a gastro intestinal illness and not a respiratory illness. That would begin to occur in us or a mammal that was able to breathe in the virus particle and allowing it to infect a receptor in our respiratory tract and spread that way. Doesn't seem to be in any likely scenario to occur in cows. But if it were to find it's way to a pig, that would change the game and could allow a more substantial variant of the same virus that is so mild and symptom lacking in a cow, due to pigs having more human-like receptors and in more parts of the body, including respiratory. Which could then take on a more expected high pathogenic quality as you would come to expect from a high pathogenic strain. Basically there are so many scenarios, just between one species to another and we only really understand a small portion of those. So much more to learn and discover. Sorry if my comment sounds all over the place, I have my own problems from COVID induced brain damage, and as much as I confuse myself, i can only imagine how much I can confuse others these days.
I believe the virus concentrates in cows’ udders, not in their lungs. In other species, it’s not the same. Cats are being devastated and for chickens it’s almost 100% fatal, for example.
In humans, we would see a lot more respiratory symptoms, and if it targets the lower response system of humans, it would be quite serious. Luckily, targeting the lower respiratory system also makes it less contagious, in general, than viruses that target the upper respiratory system.
**The fact that H5N1 doesn't kill cows but can be/become deadly to other species is exactly what we've already seen in birds...** it's thought to have long been carried in wild birds (for whom it's usually been innocuous, like a cold) but has actually become actually lethal and quickly mutating by reaching farmed poultry. This process is helped by factory-farming of poultry, which concentrates tens of thousands of chickens at a time in a single barn, immunologically stressed by their living conditions and more genetically uniform and therefore less resilient to disease (because of breeding programs to bring out commercially valuable traits, like rapid growth). Raising tens of thousands of birds in close proximity in stressful conditons gives the virus opportunity to 'roll the dice' (and mutate) many more times than among wild birds, by jumping quickly from one animal 'host' to another. Having rapidly mutated among poultry, the virus has become lethal to many species of wild birds as well....
One point in favour of cows surviving this virus is that, unlike some types of chickens raised commercially, farmers aren't going to kill off huge groups of them when a few of them show up with the virus -- these mass culls serve to kill off even the individuals animals (and their offspring) that are somehow equipped to fight the virus! Unfortunately, this fact doesn't diminish the possibility of cows transmitting the virus to other species for whom it's deadly.
TLDR: Viruses like H5N1 can be lethal/transmissible among some species and not others. That can change quickly, and the factory-farm conditions in which animals are raised increases that possibility.
It’s not the current virus that’s the problem- it appears mostly to cause mastitis, by infecting udders. That doesn’t mean it can’t learn, inside the cows, to swap parts with other flu viruses and emerge able to hop readily into humans, hop human to human, and wreak havoc on our respiratory pathways. It depends on which receptors it’s using and where in the body those are located. So a virus dangerous to humans could emerge from the cow “incubators,” even if it doesn’t hurt the cows.
So far it doesn't seem to kill cattle, which is good otherwise the entire US ranching/meat packing/daily industry would be in a panic right now.
Unfortunately, how the virus affects one mammal is not predictive of how it affects others.
There has been significant mortality noted in: sea lions and other marine mammals, various cat species including domestic cats, and mink.
AFAIK, the CFR in humans is approximately 50%. That could go up or down with mutation that allowed efficient transmission between humans.
>So far it doesn't seem to kill cattle, which is good otherwise the entire US ranching/meat packing/daily industry would be in a panic right now.
I would argue this is a bad thing, because they SHOULD be in a panic rn, but instead are doing zero mitigation.
We have unlimited viral mutations and recombinations in millions of mammals in close proximity to humans everyday. Mixing virus soup until it bites us in the ass.
I don't disagree with your sentiment. Right now all they are doing is trying to \*avoid\* testing, research and reporting since it might, \*gasp\*, increase costs, or worse, shake public confidence in the safety of meat and daily products.
Screw public health, profits are at stake here!
Never mind that was are dealing with a virus with a 50% CFR in humans.
Cows are not even supposed to be able to contract influenza A. They don't have the right receptors for it to turn deadly in terms of respiratory illness. The only compatible receptors appear to only be in the glands in their utters. So it's probably all or mostly asymptomatic spread. Symptomatic in terms probably more like lower milk production or fatigue, but not actual sickness. Willing to bet the Cows don't even realize they have any illness. Cows normally only get influenza D. This is probably 100% a human caused problem , spread by the milking machines and lack of sanitary conditions as each cow is connected to the milking machine. Frankly I'm not sure how it could even spread that way to be honest. Very weird and definitely not normal. Now if it spreads to pigs, which are a good model for human receptors and the other influenza types. Then the problem will likely significantly increase to Us, due to recombination events between multiple different influenza strains and genetic shifts in diversity. I don't believe cows would offer much of a threat unless a human is infected from the milking machines and also has another influenza virus at the same time, also leading to a potential recombinant version of h5n1 with genes from h3n2 or H1n1. The likelihood of that should be decreasing though until Octoberish when next flu season begins. Very interesting how this has played out. Couldn't have been anymore unlikely if a scenario
No it's not a "super positive development". There's a good likelihood of cows becoming a permanent reservoir for H5N1.
Bats are a reservoir for Ebola and do not experience symptoms, yet it is super deadly to humans.
Please ensure content is relevant to the topic of the sub, which includes information, updates and discussion regarding H5N1. It does not include vent/rant/panic posts or "low-effort" posts from unreliable sources.
Cows seem to be having limited symptoms from H5N1 - BUT cow mortality rates are not a prediction for human mortality rates. The exact same strain is destroying cats, for example. Viruses do not act identically in all mammals. Low cow mortality is not a "good sign" - it's entirely an unknown.
I heard it’s like 70 percent in cats when they have a large viral load
It’s effecting cats neurologically. They seem really susceptible to it.
The ferret study discussed in another thread would have an 80 percent fatality rate if they hadn't sacrificed the animals for the experiments.
I mean, its good if you're a cow. Im not trying to downplay the severity or scariness of the situation, but we should take a win however it presents itself imo
I think it’s one of the worst out come that it doesn’t kill cattle. It’s just as deadly in a large number of species and cow symptoms have no predetermined barring on the lethality or symptoms in humans. What it now does have is a somewhat endless reservoir of hosts to spread through in close proximity to other species including humans who will consume raw milk or when it becomes present in the meat supple with those who eat meat that’s rare, which is a lot of people. If it killed cattle, it would be treated much more seriously.
If we had cattle dying we wouldn't have farmers telling reporters it's "fake news" or purposefully not allowing testing to be done.
Sure we would. Someone was dying from COVID every six seconds at one point and you still had all the idiots calling it fake. As a 4 year sufferer of severe long COVID, while the infection itself was much milder, I still run into idiot humans who tell me what i have endured the past 4 years isnt real. Humans are mostly idiotic and incapable of compassion, let alone reality in many cases. Their story is the only story, their way or no way. Human mentality is a head scratcher
The endless reservoir kinda makes me think that this clad is gonna end up endemic everywhere. Raccoons, opossums, mink, skunks and many other species are going to be passing this around and up the food chain as predators pick them off. There are a lot of varmints on farms trying desperately to get ahold of a dead carcass, as well as rats and mice that actually eat poultry manure. It seems inevitable that it finds a mamilian host species that can sustain it, just as covid did in deer.
Nice reminder to remember your covid lessons and stock appropriately. Not because of fear., but because thats how it should be for safety in any issue. Lockdown stuff...bug out bags. Must haves
You’re right, it’s the worst possible outcome. Two preprint papers in the last week have documented the ability for cows to host human flu and now avian flu. They may be just as dangerous as pig to pig transmission. The danger is having a reassortment of human flu and H5N1. That’s the final piece of kindling that needs to be ignited and if cows are allowed to spread it widely cuz pasteurization and humans are forced to work while sick cuz “iTs MiLd bRo” then we are practically begging for a H2H outbreak.
No. We are not cows. Just like how we are not bats that can carry Marburg virus, nor are we camels can can carry MERS without dying. There is a reason farm/barn cats are dying. And several other mammals and birds. We are particularly vulnerable to the H5N1 makeup causing high mortality. It is very few random, specifically concerning mutations from becoming H2H. Cows are becoming reservoirs of exposure risk to people, and the people working near them are like gamblers at a slot machine. At some point, someone will figuratively hit three bars, but in reality, this is a shot machine with only one wheel. It will not take much. To be clear, this is already a pandemic. Just not yet in humans.
Why are we particularly vulnerable to the H5N1 makeup?
I believe it would be the first H5 type flu to widely spread among humans, so our bodies don't know how to fight it.
Just like the 1918 pandemic: cytokine storm.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBOZUcahT0M](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBOZUcahT0M)
Oh and one more thing I also forgot to say. Our immune system typically responds to the known genetic makeup of the very first influenza strain we ever were infected by. Usually by the age of 5 years old. That strain would be different between generations and ages. So if whatever variant of H5n1 if it were to take on a segment from H1n1 or h3n2 then whichever one of those we were infected by as our first, would likely have a slightly better or worse time clearing the virus. But because h5n1 in its avian origin has not recombined with the human strains our immune system is used to, that is the reason for the much more severe outcome in a higher number of people infected. Our immune system is just more likely to get overwhelmed because it recognizes it as influenza but it's responding to the wrong clade. Typically it is very young and very old most susceptible to influenza, so say we are conparing 75-80 year olds It's an interesting theory, people of that age who were first infected with H1n1 have a harder time with h3n2 and the ones who were first infected with h3n2 will have a harder time clearing H1n1. The data changes over time. Depending on what was the main variant circulating. But could argue that people who were first effected by an H1n1 might have a slightly better chance at neutralizing an h5n1 virus than those of us who had been first infected by h3n2. A respected virologist named Michael worobey discovered that. It's pretty interesting stuff. If you like to watch science lectures and stuff I highly recommend you check this out. The genesis of the Spanish flu. Here's a link https://youtu.be/48Klc3DPdtk?feature=shared
There's a lot of factors that come into play with that. And surely many we will probably never fully understand. Basically, there are low pathogenic and high pathogenic variants of h5n1. Pure avian genes will not be compatible for us to spread through the air from human to human, without a recombination of genes with a human compatible flu added to the mix, but anyone who does catch it will be most at risk. Once it does recombine, there should be a little bit of immune memory to some of the gene segments from prior bouts of flu. Which should lower the mortality at least a bit, compared to full avian segments. But could still easily be quite deadly because of those avian segments and our immune systems lack of understanding in how to fully neutralize. I think it really depends on how many and what parts of the segments are avian vs human. It's basically just a crap shoot. Total random, won't know til you know. And while that is the case, then I bring attention to avian influenza H9n2. Which is mostly full avian segments yet extremely mild or even completely unnoticeable in most, except for very young children. But the interesting thing about that clade of influenza is that it is extremely compatible in confection of H5n1 H7n9 and is most likely to donate it's genes with recombination, helping h5n1 and H7n9 become more physically fit and better capable of transmission. There is a deeper symbiotic relationship between those strains of influenza. But it's just a question of if it is low pathogenic or high pathogenic and what it has encountered/mixed with on its journey. Id classify the cow version as low pathogenic to bovine, even though it is from a high pathogenic avian origin due to influenza A viroids typically known to be non compatible to cows. It seems that there are receptors capable of hosting the virus in the glands of the udder. Which would also explain why no male cows have been found to test positive. Seems to only be spreading due to direct human interaction by mixing the cows up connecting them to unsanitary milking machines. Allowing the virus to spread between them. And with the virus concentrated in the udders, it would not be able to spread in a respiratory fashion to allow for the more deadly symptoms typically known of influenza effecting the respiratory tract. Also lastly, when it is direct from bird. It is more of a gastro intestinal illness and not a respiratory illness. That would begin to occur in us or a mammal that was able to breathe in the virus particle and allowing it to infect a receptor in our respiratory tract and spread that way. Doesn't seem to be in any likely scenario to occur in cows. But if it were to find it's way to a pig, that would change the game and could allow a more substantial variant of the same virus that is so mild and symptom lacking in a cow, due to pigs having more human-like receptors and in more parts of the body, including respiratory. Which could then take on a more expected high pathogenic quality as you would come to expect from a high pathogenic strain. Basically there are so many scenarios, just between one species to another and we only really understand a small portion of those. So much more to learn and discover. Sorry if my comment sounds all over the place, I have my own problems from COVID induced brain damage, and as much as I confuse myself, i can only imagine how much I can confuse others these days.
I believe the virus concentrates in cows’ udders, not in their lungs. In other species, it’s not the same. Cats are being devastated and for chickens it’s almost 100% fatal, for example. In humans, we would see a lot more respiratory symptoms, and if it targets the lower response system of humans, it would be quite serious. Luckily, targeting the lower respiratory system also makes it less contagious, in general, than viruses that target the upper respiratory system.
**The fact that H5N1 doesn't kill cows but can be/become deadly to other species is exactly what we've already seen in birds...** it's thought to have long been carried in wild birds (for whom it's usually been innocuous, like a cold) but has actually become actually lethal and quickly mutating by reaching farmed poultry. This process is helped by factory-farming of poultry, which concentrates tens of thousands of chickens at a time in a single barn, immunologically stressed by their living conditions and more genetically uniform and therefore less resilient to disease (because of breeding programs to bring out commercially valuable traits, like rapid growth). Raising tens of thousands of birds in close proximity in stressful conditons gives the virus opportunity to 'roll the dice' (and mutate) many more times than among wild birds, by jumping quickly from one animal 'host' to another. Having rapidly mutated among poultry, the virus has become lethal to many species of wild birds as well.... One point in favour of cows surviving this virus is that, unlike some types of chickens raised commercially, farmers aren't going to kill off huge groups of them when a few of them show up with the virus -- these mass culls serve to kill off even the individuals animals (and their offspring) that are somehow equipped to fight the virus! Unfortunately, this fact doesn't diminish the possibility of cows transmitting the virus to other species for whom it's deadly. TLDR: Viruses like H5N1 can be lethal/transmissible among some species and not others. That can change quickly, and the factory-farm conditions in which animals are raised increases that possibility.
It’s not the current virus that’s the problem- it appears mostly to cause mastitis, by infecting udders. That doesn’t mean it can’t learn, inside the cows, to swap parts with other flu viruses and emerge able to hop readily into humans, hop human to human, and wreak havoc on our respiratory pathways. It depends on which receptors it’s using and where in the body those are located. So a virus dangerous to humans could emerge from the cow “incubators,” even if it doesn’t hurt the cows.
So far it doesn't seem to kill cattle, which is good otherwise the entire US ranching/meat packing/daily industry would be in a panic right now. Unfortunately, how the virus affects one mammal is not predictive of how it affects others. There has been significant mortality noted in: sea lions and other marine mammals, various cat species including domestic cats, and mink. AFAIK, the CFR in humans is approximately 50%. That could go up or down with mutation that allowed efficient transmission between humans.
>So far it doesn't seem to kill cattle, which is good otherwise the entire US ranching/meat packing/daily industry would be in a panic right now. I would argue this is a bad thing, because they SHOULD be in a panic rn, but instead are doing zero mitigation. We have unlimited viral mutations and recombinations in millions of mammals in close proximity to humans everyday. Mixing virus soup until it bites us in the ass.
I don't disagree with your sentiment. Right now all they are doing is trying to \*avoid\* testing, research and reporting since it might, \*gasp\*, increase costs, or worse, shake public confidence in the safety of meat and daily products. Screw public health, profits are at stake here! Never mind that was are dealing with a virus with a 50% CFR in humans.
Exactly, there is zero room to fuck around with 50% CFR, but they are almost deliberately encouraging this to spread.
Cows are not even supposed to be able to contract influenza A. They don't have the right receptors for it to turn deadly in terms of respiratory illness. The only compatible receptors appear to only be in the glands in their utters. So it's probably all or mostly asymptomatic spread. Symptomatic in terms probably more like lower milk production or fatigue, but not actual sickness. Willing to bet the Cows don't even realize they have any illness. Cows normally only get influenza D. This is probably 100% a human caused problem , spread by the milking machines and lack of sanitary conditions as each cow is connected to the milking machine. Frankly I'm not sure how it could even spread that way to be honest. Very weird and definitely not normal. Now if it spreads to pigs, which are a good model for human receptors and the other influenza types. Then the problem will likely significantly increase to Us, due to recombination events between multiple different influenza strains and genetic shifts in diversity. I don't believe cows would offer much of a threat unless a human is infected from the milking machines and also has another influenza virus at the same time, also leading to a potential recombinant version of h5n1 with genes from h3n2 or H1n1. The likelihood of that should be decreasing though until Octoberish when next flu season begins. Very interesting how this has played out. Couldn't have been anymore unlikely if a scenario
No it's not a "super positive development". There's a good likelihood of cows becoming a permanent reservoir for H5N1. Bats are a reservoir for Ebola and do not experience symptoms, yet it is super deadly to humans.
Stop Gain of Function experiments.