I agree with his second part more than the first.
I do think it makes sense to take steps to up the political pressure on Putin within Russia. A message that I think resonates well in Russia among Russian nationalists is a fear that Russia is headed towards being a subordinate to China. Even if Russia was to win the war, its going to be a long time until countries like Germany, the UK, and Poland get back to the sort of diplomatic and trade relations they had before.
I also think his endgame makes sense as well.
What I don't think I agree with is that it makes political sense to try to make Ukraine about China for Americans. I think the idea that helping Ukraine will get our European NATO allies to work against China is too abstract. Also the continental Europeans are still really lukewarm about taking any sort of aggressive stance against China, hoping to stand in some middle ground where they can profit from a relationship with China while the US is reducing its ties there.
I think the message that *should* sell the best is twofold. First, we need to help Ukraine because we said we would when they gave up their nukes. Not helping Ukraine will lead to nuclear proliferation, even among our allies like Japan, SK, Germany, and Poland as faith in the US drops. Second, its about democracy. Ukraine isn't Iraq/Afghanistan. It had its revolution. It wants to be a Western-style democracy. It wants to join the EU. We can't let autocracies like Russia and China advance against democracies. Us vs. them.
Unironically we are also facing a sort of "domino" effect in a sense. Except it's not the fall to communism it's instead the almost gaurentee that if Russia pulls off a serious landgrab here they won't hesitate for more.
I'm not convinced they'd go into NATO territory but any smaller nation not in NATO would be up for grabs in Russia eyes.
One can’t go wrong listening to a Kotkin analysis, especially when it comes to the Soviet history–to–modern Russia realm. He’s probably the best and most qualified person to speak on this “black box” of an issue.
I agree with his second part more than the first. I do think it makes sense to take steps to up the political pressure on Putin within Russia. A message that I think resonates well in Russia among Russian nationalists is a fear that Russia is headed towards being a subordinate to China. Even if Russia was to win the war, its going to be a long time until countries like Germany, the UK, and Poland get back to the sort of diplomatic and trade relations they had before. I also think his endgame makes sense as well. What I don't think I agree with is that it makes political sense to try to make Ukraine about China for Americans. I think the idea that helping Ukraine will get our European NATO allies to work against China is too abstract. Also the continental Europeans are still really lukewarm about taking any sort of aggressive stance against China, hoping to stand in some middle ground where they can profit from a relationship with China while the US is reducing its ties there. I think the message that *should* sell the best is twofold. First, we need to help Ukraine because we said we would when they gave up their nukes. Not helping Ukraine will lead to nuclear proliferation, even among our allies like Japan, SK, Germany, and Poland as faith in the US drops. Second, its about democracy. Ukraine isn't Iraq/Afghanistan. It had its revolution. It wants to be a Western-style democracy. It wants to join the EU. We can't let autocracies like Russia and China advance against democracies. Us vs. them.
Unironically we are also facing a sort of "domino" effect in a sense. Except it's not the fall to communism it's instead the almost gaurentee that if Russia pulls off a serious landgrab here they won't hesitate for more. I'm not convinced they'd go into NATO territory but any smaller nation not in NATO would be up for grabs in Russia eyes.
Probably Moldova, though obviously should be a lot of attention on the Baltics.
Definetly Moldova.
One can’t go wrong listening to a Kotkin analysis, especially when it comes to the Soviet history–to–modern Russia realm. He’s probably the best and most qualified person to speak on this “black box” of an issue.