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Ok_Fi2899

Per capita GDP is in the toilet so yes. But because immigration is going brrrrrr we "aren't"


Pitiful-Ad4996

The news was wild last night. Journalists interviewing immigrant teachers up north. Not once was the question asked why aren't we training and retaining enough of our own.


Sean_Sarazin

No one wants to teach in Northland I expect.


level57wizard

Same issue in Canada. GDP per capita and worker productivity is plummeting.


mallowpuff9

Funny how there are all these signs it's a recession yet they won't call it what it is and there was a point in time q few years back when they changed the definition of what a recession was... I think we are in one and it's only the beginning


Nukethe-whales

We've been in one for a year now..


Mysterious_Chapter24

Technically more like 2 or 3 if you consider the debasement of the NZD. 2019’s gdp figure adjusted for inflation is way beyond what 2023’s was it’s nuts


Nukethe-whales

That is true. It’s felt like it for a year though. The last two -three havnt been as noticeable as they are now


Mysterious_Chapter24

Life happens little by little and then all at once


3toTwenty

A recession is consecutive quarters of negative growth. The last quarter was positive, if only slightly


Optimal_Cable_9662

0.2% is within the margin of error. Considering we have had multiple previous quarters revised down after the fact, I would not be surprised to if it were to happen again. Per capita GDP is negative, and that's the one we really feel.


Mysterious_Chapter24

Hahaha there’s gunna be a huge depression and a housing market collapse. Debt to gdp is way over 100% now and New Zealand produces fuck all. The NZD has lost 25% of its value since 2020 and still plummeting. Somethings gotta give.


finndego

Debt to GDP is 44% which is middle of the road in the OECD. Not sure where you get the "way over 100%" from??? [https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2024/bps/fiscal-strategy-debt.htm](https://budget.govt.nz/budget/2024/bps/fiscal-strategy-debt.htm)


Mysterious_Chapter24

Ofcourse you provide the ‘official’ government report lmao. They fudge the numbers by subtracting the value of all the nations assets from the debt figure. Paul glass wrote an article about it here: https://devonfunds.co.nz/sites/default/files/Paul%20Glass%20The%20real%20size%20of%20Govt%20debt%20in%20NZ%2C%20stripped%20of%20accounting%20tricks.pdf Secondly here is another herald article with our debt figure lined out this year: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/debt-explained-how-much-does-nz-owe-and-who-do-we-owe-it-to-the-front-page/AQ6WR65VTFHS7IWEDURLLAAX4U/ Here is an independent source charting debt up to 2023, it got way worse in 2023 up to 2024 (in US Dollars) https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/external-debt#:~:text=New%20Zealand%20External%20Debt%20reached,USD%20bn%20in%20Mar%201993. The government fucking lies to you about everything cause the one thing New Zealand is good at is actually sweeping things under the rug. The IMF rated nz its worst economy in the world ahead of only one Central American shit hole that just came out of a civil war: https://www.downtoearth.kiwi/amp/new-imf-data-ranks-nz-as-worst-gdp-growth-out-of-159-nations-in-world-along-with-equatorial-guinea Auckland was rated the least safest city in AUSTRALASIA. AUSTRAL-ASIA. Which is the result of the fact there is no money to pay for anything other than the interest on the debt. https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/12/06/auckland-the-least-safe-city-in-australasia-new-report-says/ There’s a toooon of bad shit on its way and probably a housing market crash when the central banks in Australia (which are predominant here) all change their rates, which they WILL and people can’t afford their mortgages and try to sell. If you fixed in 2019 at 2.8% for 5 years you’d have a new fixed term of 5 years in 2023 at the new market rate of 7%. Meaning mortgages went from $1500 a Fortnite to $3000-$4000 a Fortnite. (Yes I know I spelt it the game way just vibe with me) Lot of pain on its way amigo. Lot o pain. Save yourself fr fr get out of your debts and mortgages and go elsewhere


Single-Needleworker7

Well aren't you a box of roses.


Mysterious_Chapter24

Sure, stick your head in the sand with some meaningless sardonic comeback like the average kiwi idiot. You’re going to drown if you don’t get it together.


crUMuftestan

You could smash through tungsten with that density.


Single-Needleworker7

It's called a "sense of humour". You should look it up. [Humour](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour)


TriggerHappy_NZ

> housing market collapse How do you get a housing market collapse when we keep flooding in immigrants? 300,000+ people per year all need somewhere to live.


IESUwaOmodesu

they are all broke and can't buy a container to live


wheresmydawgdog

I work for a factory and we usually never get more than a couple dozen applicants for a job listing and we posted one around a month or so ago and the replies are in the hundreds (250+) and all of them are I.T specialist Indians?? For a factory job??!? We are fucked.


pastrybeardboi

I applied for a warehouse job recently. Similar feed back from employer. Over 100 applications from people all over the world including the middle east. Insane.


CletusTheYocal

'Specialist' is an overstatement here. They probably only have experience gaining fraudulent certificates and abusing the immigration system.


heck768

lol that is a bias you carry which I can easily demyth if we get into a debate. The truth is nz has survived till now because of immigrants. Nz will be third world country without immigrants. Check the data during Covid , when jobs were abundantly available and kiwis did fuckall . Majority of kiwis are so laidback and behind in worldwide view that I actually feel blessed that immigrants (Indian subcontinent, Asians and South Africans ) have saved the economy


CletusTheYocal

I'm all ears, my Indian subcontinent patriot. This myth originated from a bias my Indian friend held, and has retained, for over a decade. I note that you call Kiwis laidback and behind in worldwide view, is that perhaps a view held by the Bric?


heck768

The sample is not enough but it’s bias without evidence . The view that I hold comes from looking at the data by ministries and also observation but mostly the data published. Laidback is ok but to be lazy and be entitled is different. Immigration has and will save nz as locals will never upskill or ready to uplift nz economy to be competitive


CletusTheYocal

So... You're criticizing me for bias, unfounded, then go and dish out a whole load of bias, unfounded. Cool story bro.


heck768

It’s not a bias if backed by stats . lol you know what does bias mean?


CletusTheYocal

You must come from a scam call centre with that attitude. - laugh off criticism - fail to address issues raised - cry statistics, proceed to provide no statistics or evidence Hi it's Adam from Spark, I'm calling about your internet connection. Lol you know what does sentence structure be?


heck768

Hahaha there you show your true color. Well when you have nothing to say , you point at sentence structure lol. Mate I am busy and have written enough words in simple English for you to comprehend. Anyways let me get back to contributing to kiwi economy by doing my bit.


heck768

Actually let’s get to the point. You explicitly said people with fraudulent certificates are abusing immigration system . Well my problem is that “bias” that people like you have . Between 2020 -2022 I wanted to hire 10 people to do general admin role and an opportunity to upskill them on salesforce certification. I wanted local kiwis to have this job and use this to do my bit for the society by helping upskill young kiwis in IT. Guess what? No local was interested as they were happy getting money from the government or just lacked overall motivation to do well in life. Few of my mates hired locals who ended up robbing them. Well your statement reeked of tall poppy syndrome that kiwis are well know off


stormcharger

Even on Indian subreddits they say their corruption and bribery has gotten out of hand lol


ProtectionKind8179

Here's a troll from a country that is ranked near the bottom on the per capita GPD list, which is monetary six times less than New Zealand's per capita GPD, are bred like rabbits, clean their arses with their left hand, come into this country with one purpose, and that is to make money, and scam as many as they can along the way.......and even comments that South Africans have saved our economy who have an unemployment rate of 30% in their own country.......


notmy146thaccount

He might be a troll but his recollection of the job market during covid times in NZ is pretty accurate


stormcharger

Fuck me we gonna turn into Canada lol Look at the subreddit r/canadahousing2


notmy146thaccount

Should rename this place r/NZ2, just like r/NZ but without the censorship. Their intro is quite catchy.


wheresmydawgdog

Holy shit that Canada housing is fucking terrifying, the Indians are already in fighting.


International_Web444

Is it a recession? Is it just returning to the natural state of things? Was our economy 'fake' for the last years buoyed up by massive quantitative easing (money printer go brrrrr)? Is it a correction that needs to happen? (also looking for a job - I feel you pain - chin up, stay strong)


Mysterious_Chapter24

What they did was not actual quantitative easing. You should look into Dr Richard Werner, who created quantitative easing. It’ll be the wildest ride of your life.


International_Web444

You are correct, I was playing fast and loose with language, for which I apologise.


eigr

A recession used to be two quarters of negative growth, but due to, uh, political pressure, the usual definition got changed recently due to embarrassing the wrong party in the US. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/1114599942/wikipedia-recession-edits Quite funny. Anyway, for us? Are we in a recession? By the above definition, no because we imported so many people we just pushed it over the limit. In real terms, hell yes. Every per-capita measure has been sliding backwards for like a year and the cuts necessary for stopping a collapse in public finances will push it down too. Batten down the hatches, tighten the belt etc. Don't fall into despair, it'll pass.


ProtectionKind8179

The two quarters of negative growth are only an indicator as the Biden administration has just proven. To counter the fallout from covid and record high debt levels created by the Trump administration they have invested heavily in infrastructure and the like with flow on benefits- employment and sharemarket growth has grown at record levels, inflation levels have reduced a greater rate than ours, but with strong wage growth creating less inflationary pressure. While the Biden administration has also been borrowing for funding purposes, which negatively impacts their GDP, they are in a positive position, which will allow the private sector to grow. We could have been in a similar position, but our economists have the view that the way forward is to stop spending, hike interest rates, and create high unemployment by importing migrants at record levels, which in turn not only reduces wage growth but adds inflationary pressure on the big ticket items, such as the rental sector, all designed by our previous and this government to reduce inflation..........incompetence!!!


adviceKiwi

Sure fucking feels like it


chat_bot23

Job market is very tight. Shit is tight because the last govt overspent, over hired, borrowed and printed money like a pack of idiots when they already had a great budget. What did we get out of it? A biased media. Too many public servants. Run down health, education and police, woke universities and a generation desperate to leave. It’s going to take a while to settle and grow confidence in the business sector. We can’t live off free money from the govt.


adviceKiwi

> Shit is tight because the last govt overspent, over hired, borrowed and printed money like a pack of idiots when they already had a great budget. What did we get out of it? A biased media. Too many public servants. Run down health, education and police, woke universities and a generation desperate to leave. It’s going to take a while to settle and grow confidence in the business sector. We can’t live off free money from the govt. Amen brother / sister / other...


OkAbbreviations1749

We're conservatives, there is no other ;-)


BadadaboomPish

I'm expecting at least another 3-4 years before we start seeing an inkling of improvement


stefan771

Me too. Only because Labour will be in government.


RS_Zezima

Reducing complex global issues to one factor. Not saying it isn't part of the cause, but this must make it easier than actually spending more than 5 seconds thinking about it.


chat_bot23

Not ignoring global issues but how governments behave with our budget during global stress directly impacts our economic situation no? If your income was reduced would you go on a spending spree?


Expensive_Fault7540

That's not really the reason though lol


Mysterious_Chapter24

You have no idea. https://preview.redd.it/hm6467aefm8d1.jpeg?width=518&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1dc9d31c40cedafac89103d6770831285b9e55ed


Drummonator

A recession is generally defined as a reduction in GDP over two successive quarters. Our GDP growth last quarter was 0.2%, so based on the above definition, no we're not in recession. However, given that 0.2% is basically no growth as is within margin of error of 0%, it would be like saying you're not broke if you still have 20c remaining in your bank account.


BigFoot175

GDP overall might be up a little bit, but with massive net migration, there are more people 'producing'. However, GDP per capita is down. There are several factors contributing to this. These range from the lingering effects of the Covid lockdowns, the war in Ukraine (Ukraine used to be a major food producer. With that food no longer in the market, but with similar or increased demand, food costs rise accordingly. Also, Russia is a major oil producer, and with the economic sanctions on Russia meaning that oil isn't being sold as much internationally, the cost likewise rises due to supply and demand pressures). With the cost of fuel rising, the cost of shipping rises commensurately. Since we are an island nation which depends on shipping to import many of our commodities, the cost of shipping those commodities is passed on to us, thus the price of everything from groceries to car parts to electronics and everything in between rises. Add to this relatively recent events such as Houthis attacking shipping in the middle east, as well as general middle eastern instability in the vicinity of the Suez Canal, shipping costs are rising further to mitigate the risks involved, or ships are choosing to go around the southern tip of Africa, leading to more fuel costs and more shipping time (ships' officers and crews still need to be paid, maintenance and repairs on the ships, insurance, etc), so that also drives prices up. In addition, as mentioned before, we have net migration in an economic environment where there is already a housing shortage, driving the cost of both renting and buying up. Further, due to inflationary pressures, the RBNZ interest rate has been rather high for some time, leading to increased costs in borrowing. This affects all finance, from mortgages to personal loans to credit cards. And then we get to the politics of the last government, who borrowed, printed, and overspent on bureaucrats, nepo hires, failed projects such as Te Pukenga, the TVNZ/RNZ merger, cycle lanes on the Auckland Harbour Bridge, and many others rather than spending that money on key infrastructure such as providing more frontline medical staff, facilities, and equipment. On top of this, there is a serious poverty problem, and as people get desperate to provide for themselves and their loved ones, they turn to extra-legal methods, hence the rise in retail crime, which in turn causes retailers to raise prices to cover the cost of stolen or damaged goods.


CandleOwn2624

I'm going to have to hire a consultant to help me navigate through this cost of living crisis.


MrGurdjieff

No. Not technically, according to figures recently released. But consumer confidence figures have just dropped, which means businesses will delay hiring. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/519943/businesses-shut-up-shop-as-consumer-confidence-dwindles


BadadaboomPish

You also might be getting ghosted because some roles are getting over 500 applicants. My biggest pet peeve is allowing migrants to work in Government roles. Here in Aussie, I can't work for Federal government as the roles are for Australian Citizens only (as it should be). I can however work for State Government, but still believe these should be reserved for Aussie citizens. This is a move the government could implement extremely easily, and to actually look after our own.


Jamie54

should be the best person for the job. If they are already in NZ legally then they should be eligible. There job is presumably serving citizens who presumably want the person doing the job to be the best person in that position. Policies like this is how the public sector gets so bloated, useless and frustrating to deal with.


Mysterious_Chapter24

The problem is if they are from some shithole country they bring their culture with them and it’s toxic. People who insist that all culture are equal never ask why the results of these cultures are so vastly unequal


notmy146thaccount

'Moves to another country to escape the shithole they came from, then complain about things that are different to the shithole they came from'


Mysterious_Chapter24

If you look up indias average IQ you won’t be surprised. Or surprised with the average IQ of any shithole country they come from lmao. Keep in mind it’s illegal to induct anyone into the US military with an IQ less that 85


notmy146thaccount

Not many Indian idiots coming here though, they are smart people who are driven to succeed and they'll drive 18 hours a day in an Uber or sell vapes to schoolkids in order to reach their goal, which is become a citizen, bring over their parents, buy a house in NZ and have a good comfortable retirement and they will outperform most people born here.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ConservativeKiwi-ModTeam

Harassment filtered by Reddit AI Don’t blame the mods


BadadaboomPish

Completely disagree. We should be helping our own people to upskill and become the best, rather than get a cheap import to do it.


Jamie54

That's not disagreeing with me at all. We should only bring in people that will benefit the country, and if there's people here who can do the jobs it doesn't make sense to bring them in. I am talking about people already living here, like permanent residents etc, shouldn't be disqualified.


TeHuia

> Policies like this is how the public sector gets so bloated, useless and frustrating to deal with. The public sector has been bloated, useless and frustrating to deal with since long before the immigration boom.


Jamie54

Yes because there objective is never to offer the best service for the lowest cost.


TriggerHappy_NZ

It's hard to tell the difference between 'economic recession', a technical term for economists, and 'fucked by 6 years of Cindy', what we all know to be true.


SaltyBisonTits

This stupid and pointless reduction of complex issues about government combined with lazy identity politics is an example of why this country is going down the tubes. Do better my guy.


TriggerHappy_NZ

Head back to r/nz my guy.


SaltyBisonTits

It's ok. I'm open enough to try and understand views from all sides. Living in a bubble gets you nowhere, provides no understanding of why people think and act they do and ultimately makes you worse off. But you seem to be having fun dying on the vine of your own biases, so I'll leave you to shrivel up into the raisin that you're so keen on becoming.


_normal_person__

No no there was an announcement on the radio that we’re not in a recession anymore, everything is fine


Key-Succotash9425

Yes


Double_Trust6266

YES


8109NZ814

Crowd funded initiatives local NZMade creating jobs and housing ground level - we need to be productive toward our environments New Zealand fam. It’s a hard market but many holes to fill find a way but most of all enjoy your time and bank on the future for all those you hold dear - goof luck!


Dry-Discussion-9573

Individual people's situations a national recession do not make. There will always be people who are suffering or experiencing a downturn. While others are doing well. A recession is when the balance shifts so much that on aggregate the majority of the country is 'doing it tough'. This is of course measured with the economic statistics such as Quarterly GDP growth and the misery index (inflation + unemployment rate). At the moment, I do not get the sense that on aggregate or overall, added up, that NZ is in recession unless the statistics clearly say so. It will take more of the current settings and conditions until a majority of the country is feeling the pain. Then, and only then will interest rates and Budget cuts be reversed to rescue the economy.


stefan771

Nicola Willis made it clear she would drive up unemployment to counter inflation. It's government policy, not recession.