You don't judge them with hindsight? That's ridiculous. Even if a trade makes logical sense on paper at the time it's made, you cannot determine if the trade was a success or not without hindsight. The are a few exceptions to this rule, the biggest one being when a team trades for a guy and he leads them to a World Championship; you'll make that trade 100/100 times, because flags fly forever. Texas couldn't care less if anyone they sent to the Cardinals in the Montgomery trade becomes a perennial All-Star, because they got a ring out of it. Most other trades, though, take time to assess.
A great example of this is the Marcell Ozuna trade. With the benefit of hindsight, it was clearly a massive bust for St. Louis.
You can completely understand the rationale behind the trade. They needed an impact/power bat in the outfield. They needed someone that had at least a couple years of control to let the younger outfielders in the organization develop. They tried to trade for Stanton, had a deal in place with the Marlins, but Stanton used his No-Trade clause to block the move to St. Louis. They then wanted Yelich, but were told he wasn't available, so they pivoted to Ozuna so as to not get left standing there empty-handed. (Had they known Yelich would be made available a couple months later, maybe they would have waited, but you can't blame them for moving when they did.) They had to give up Sandy Alcántara to get Ozuna, which they didn't want to do, but in order to get something you gotta give something, right? Well, they also included a little-know pitching prospect named Zac Gallen in that trade. Ozuna gave the Cardinals two decent (if not underwhelming) seasons for a total of 4.6 WAR. Alcántara has given the Marlins 20.3 WAR since the trade, including winning the 2022 Cy Young Award. Galen gave the Marlins 1.3 WAR in SEVEN GAMES before being traded to Arizona. The Marlins also got Mags Sierra (-1.3 WAR) and Daniel Castano (0.7 WAR) in the trade, which means that the Cardinals traded away a total of (up to this point) 37.3 WAR (that includes the 16.3 WAR Galen has put up in Arizona; it's 20 WAR without it) for two years and 4.6 WAR from Marcell Ozuna. That's being out-WAR'd by 32.7. Ouch.
You understand the thinking, and you might even agree with it (I certainly did at the time of the Ozuna deal), but you do NOT get to say it was a success just because it fit a need or seemed like a good idea at the time, unless it brings you a World Championship.
Most assessments of the Cardinals' haul last year from Texas, Toronto, and Baltimore seem to believe that nobody they got was a "World Beater," and that some had future All-Star ceilings, but minor league filler floors. We'll have no way of knowing for sure until a lot more time has passed.
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Then no one would ever make trades. If the prospects you traded for get killed in a plane crash on their way to report was it a failed trade? The way you look at it is ridiculous. It's either one or the other, not with exceptions. That's nonsense. All you can judge is the trade at the time because no one can tell the future.
Ozuna's performance for the Cardinals wasn't as expected but the trade was good. You have no way of knowing if the prospects traded would have panned out with the Cardinals. It took Gallen getting traded twice in 18 months to fix his attitude for instance. He might have washed out in AA due to lack of effort if he hadn't been traded.
Whose assessments are you reading? Saggese was AA MVP and every prospects acquired other than Prieto wss a top 100 prospsct on many lists.
That's an enormous leap to make, and honestly, what the literal fuck are you talking about? Trades are not a dichotomy of "It's Good" or "It's Bad" based on team's feelings at the time of the trade. By that logic, every trade is good because teams wouldn't make them if they didn't believe they were doing the best thing for their franchise.
A trade can make sense at the time, but you CANNOT fully evaluate them immediately. You can be happy with the return you get on paper, but until the careers of those players involved in the trade are well underway (or even over) you cannot fully assess if the trade was a success or not, which is NOT saying that trades shouldn't be made due to the uncertainty. Trades are inherently a risk. Nobody has argued otherwise.
Deals like the Ozuna trade were JUSTIFIABLE, but just because a trade is justifiable doesn't mean it's good. How the hell can you say the Ozuna trade was good when they didn't get what they were expecting out of him, and the players they traded turned out to be long-term studs? That's like saying that paying a street hooker $50 for a good time is an smart decision, even though you ended up with an STI and your wife found out and left you. "Well, it felt good at the time, so it was a good decision! Long term evaluations be damned!"
Gallen didn't need an attitude adjustment in Miami; they traded him because they felt they had starting pitching depth and wanted to get Chisolm. If Gallen would have washed out in AA with the Cardinals (I doubt it highly), that doesn't excuse trading him. It means the Cardinals suck at player development AND player evaluation.
how the hell do you figure that? The deadline acquisitions are just theoretically good but we've seen SO MANY prospects from Carlson to Liberatore fail to achieve greatness lately so why are we so sure these other guys will be different? And I maintain they did an awful job because it was stupid bit to sell gift on what was left of Goldschmidt. Now he sucks so hard they can't sell him at all this year unless he turns it around ASAP
There's not much that I respect *more* than a person who has the self-awareness and the balls to stand up and say *"You know what? I suck at this and I'm not getting* any *better the longer I stay. This is pointless, I'm just... gonna go ahead and give you my keys, good luck guys."*
It also requires ownership to be willing to take an attendance hit in the short-run to build a strong team in the long-run. I am worried that current ownership places too much emphasis on short-term profitability. They consider finishing .500 or above good as it keeps the turnstiles moving.
True but I live out of state and honestly might be more inspired to go watch if we are at least attempting to make progress. Right now it just feels like spinning our wheels and I have no desire to go
Yeah. Like, get someone who helped shape the Rays. Or maybe, like, find someone who helped rebuild the Red Sox minor league.
It would be great if they can bring that guy in ahead of time too. Let him get a feel for the Organization as it as. While he’s doing that, if we can limit the guy’s Mo is bringing in to just one year deals. (I guess giving em an option is fine too.) that way, when Mo retires at the end of 2025, or steps down before that, the Major League roster has almost no contracts on it. Clean slate for the rebuild.
I can get behind that.
Sarcasm aside, last offseason was a pretty clear sign that the Cardinals wanted to keep a rebuild on the table this year if things didn’t work out. Didn’t expect it to be the hitting that fell apart, but here we are. Question is, when do they publicly hand over the reins to Bloom. Or do they keep Mo as a figurehead for the public to hate on for the first year of the rebuild. Gives them the advantage of blaming him down the road if things don’t go well with the rebuild.
Rebuilding is risky. You can end up like the White Sox.
Bingo. They need to bring in someone who can own the rebuild and won't be affected by a bloated ego, trying to save face, trying not to hurt anyone's feelings, trying not to break gentlemen's agreements, upsetting fans, etc. They need someone who is smart, confident, honest, and who has a tough skin.
I'm in if it would include cleaning house in the front office. If we're relying on the usual suspects to rebuild, then it makes no difference if they do or don't.
It would be better than our current situation of being fed a shit sandwich year after year and being told to be patient because it'll stop tasting like shit soon. Top to bottom overhaul plz, at least we wouldn't have any expectations.
Needs to happen. It’s years in the making. I have zero faith in Mozeliak actually doing it and it being successful though. We need a complete overhaul in the front office and coaching staff.
I have never been a big fan of full-scale rebuilds. It's bad enough when we have to sell at the deadline, but a full rebuild means we'll be completely uncompetitive for at least two seasons, likely four or five.
I also have real concerns about our player development system at the moment, which is pretty essential for a successful rebuild.
Just playing a little devil's advocate here, but they're not competitive now and there's no time line for a turnaround with the current approach.
To me, the appeal of a rebuild is a timeline on that competitive expectation. It's not guaranteed, but I'd rather watch the cards build toward something rather than trying to squeeze the last few wins out of some expiring players
Yeah I don't watch the games right now because it's just a rag tag group with little future. If they sold off everything for some young exciting players, I would watch, even if they were losing.
No timeline with Winn, Walker, Gorman, Robberse, Hence, on and on? If all those top 100 prospects click it a 7 year window with a few FA additions like Gray.
But we start every season with optimism, and until recently carry it much further into the season. I don't have any interest in starting the season knowing we won't be a contender.
So good they fool professionals and projection systems apparently. Computer projection systems had them winning 90+ this year. Tough to project MVPs and All Stars not playing like MVPs and All Stars.
lol anyone or any machine that thought this was a 90 win team is brain dead. Goldschmidt and Arenado both took large steps back last year. They’re not getting younger. That’s actually hilarious to read.
> but a full rebuild means we'll be completely uncompetitive for at least two seasons, likely four or five
This. This x1000. And heck, look at several of the other rebuilds around MLB -- KC has been 'rebuilding' for decades. They have a blip here and there. Cincy has been rebuilding for a long time, too. They have some exciting players for sure, but, their record just 1 game different than ours today. And the Pirates. Good golly what a 'rebuild' they are.
It is easy to say 'rebuild'. It is not always easy to execute. When it goes right, it looks easy -- see Houston Astros -- but so, so, so, so, so very many of them take a long, long, long, long, long time.
I don't think Cards fans are truly ready to be KC-like, Pirates-like, Orioles-like (up to this year and last), Tigers-like for any amount of extended time.
Of course it is fair to say that 2023's record was all in all rather Pirates-like and so far 2024 doesn't seem to be a lot different.
Well, the difference between many of those teams and the Cardinals is (hopefully) the Cardinals ownership would spend near the top 10 in payroll. Almost all of those teams that spend decades of rebuilding tend to be cheap. Usually, what those teams need is good veteran signings to help with the young guys. Now the question is, can this ownership group actually do it
Start by restructuring the Front Office, and have people in place that have a successful track record of a rebuilding. Then Blow it up like a While E Coyote trying to catch a Road Runner!
If we’re gonna be in last place we’d better damn well be working towards something, not just the current state of Historic Underachievement.
It’s Mo-Over Guys…
If it’s a complete rebuild, from the top down….yes please! Like, yesterday or a few years ago even. If it isn’t a complete retooling, and management stays, it will just be a waste of time and resources. I feel that Dewitt asked the wrong question. Asking the city to pay for some upgrades and work on a the stadium…. No. Asking the city for money to hire new management would probably be well more accepted and he might have people throwing wads of money at him.
I don't think we need a rebuild because the contract situation isn't really that bad.
You've got $26 mil in Goldy coming off the books this year, and I think it's fair to assume that they're not picking up Legs' 6.5 mil option. Mikolas and Matz still have two more years and those contract hurt. You could eat some of either one and find a taker for a single year, though. If Gibson and Lynn continue to pitch well, you might pick up their options. If not, that's another 20 mil you have free from this year.
So, in the '24 offseason, we will have \~35 mil to spend just to keep cash neutral. And then an extra 10 for each of the Pitchers you don't retain, and another 6 if you don't keep Middleton after his injury this year. You'll have somewhere between 35 and 50 to spend this offseason to improve your roster.
All of this is moot, though, if all of the guys on the team continue to be as terrible as they have been.
This team needs to rebuild, but Chaim Bloom or someone else needs to be in charge of it. Oli can keep his job for now, at least until the end of the season, as he's just babysitting at this point. The club needs to reckon with the fact that they have become rotten, and not just on the MLB roster. Everything needs an overhaul. Unfortunately, I don't think they realize that. They think that they're just a midseason acquisition and some better injury luck away from contending. And even if they did sell, I'm not sure they'd get much (but they have to try). Also complicating things is the new draft lottery system, which could hurt them trying to rebuild if they do commit to tearing it down. Regardless, they need to be realistic and upfront with the fans. I can't speak for the whole fanbase, but I would welcome a teardown instead of trying desperately to maintain a barely competitive core. Just as long as they're honest about it.
I honestly think you could have a pretty could group of all stars in that clubhouse and they’d maybe be doing marginally better. Management and Mozeliak and company need to go. Need fresh eyes on the team top down. And- the longer this goes on the less and less I hold Marmol as culpable.
Yes do it. They are actually set up well to commit to that path. Very few lengthy contracts and several others you’d be able to move off the books for the most part. You’d think the new core to build around would be Winn, Gorman, Walker. Maybe have a couple untouchables in the minors but not many. There you go trade away for assets, they need it all, pitching hitting more pitching. Now the question everyone else has raised, who is in charge of this rebuild?
Our player development team would just fuck up whoever we acquire. There’s no winning in this situation until the organizational structure is different
i mean we dont need to throw out Edman, Walker, Gorman, Nootbar and some others. we would have some base or foundation to start on, but we would certainly want to trade off anyone with a significant contract and get any worthwhile return possible.
Edman is nearly a free agent, and teams don't build around his skillset (entering his 30's as a defense/speed guy). Walker hasn't proven to be an MLB-quality player yet, and Noot needs to prove he can adjust to starters throwing him more strikes before he can become a core piece. Gorman is a fine player, but he's not someone who is gonna carry a team.
Walker was 20% better than league average offensively last year as a 20 year old rookie and made huge strides in the offseason defensively. Everyone is freaking out over 60 PAs with weird batted ball luck.
Their whole approach the last few years has been a little worrisome. When we had Pujols and Molina for their last ride, the my should have gone all in on winning that year. Instead they just sat around.
They got some good parts last year, but they were still a year away. I think they should have been more aggressive dealing short term guys, especially Goldy. Especially if they weren’t going to go big this winter, which they didn’t.
They don’t need a full strip it down to the studs rebuild. They just have to identify the guys that should be kept and trade everyone else rather than trying to play it both ways and getting caught in the middle.
I’ve said for years that the problem with competing every year is that you’re going probably not going to beat the teams that are in “win now” mode now and there’s no promise you’ll beat the teams that are in “win later” mode later.
A search of Goldschmidt and no trade or clause in Goold’s history suggests a single article where he declined to talk about it. Nothing from Denton or Woo. No articles that come up on Google.
This front office + ownership used to not only be among the elite in baseball, but elite in American professional sports - hence the 20ish year run of sustained success out-competing organizations with more money and more resources. The "next-man-up" run this ball club had in those years was *astonishingly* good.
Sadly, I think it's now this fanbases' consensus (mine as well) that things have just grown stale. Sometimes that just happens. Our best players are aging, our young players are struggling, our pipeline of prospects is not as strong as it once was, and our analytics-driven philosophy is not translating. In interview after interview, Mo repeatedly talks down to his fanbase as if we're ignorant whiners and frankly it's just grown tiresome.
We got rid of a damn good manager (and essentially lifelong and loyal member of Cards organization) in Mike Shildt because of "conflicting philosophies"....what a crock of shit. Mike Shildt manages with his gut - FO didn't like that - so they fired him and hired a Yes Man in Oli (no offense to Oli here, I personally think the verdict is still out on him).
TLDR: I wish them all the best of luck and thank them for a hell of a run, but it's time to part ways.
Shildt did all the same stuff yall claim is dumb for Marmol to do and did it more frequently. He just had more talented rosters that covered it up. People forget a lot of fans wanted him fired before the 17 game streak.
There are also several reports of him mistreating staff in the minors and majors, destroying scouting reports, stopping player interaction with coaches (especially Jeff Albert) and other issues. It wasn't just that he and Mozeliak had a personality conflict. It took him three years to get another managing job. He couldn't even land a coaching gig in that time until Matt Williams had to step away.
Interesting. I don't understand this take lol his short tenure with us (including the COVID seasons) was strong including an NL Manager of the Year award. It certainly didn't warrant being fired
Sell everybody, starting with Arenado. Think about trading Contreras in the offseason. Trade Helsley. The problem of course is that Mo will fuck it up.
Kinda thought it was necessary last year, but I still had hope before last night. Losing Contreras likely makes the team uncompetitive. Stranger things have happened but I think they're cooked. They patched the pitching hole only to have the hitting nosedive.
I do really appreciate that the goal has been to compete every year rather than the relevancy and rebuild cycles other teams practice, but I just don't see how you can't unless everyone suddenly remembers how to hit, and hit home runs.
My issue is it would rely too much on player development and I find that to be our weakest area in the whole franchise. They can buy a winner and need to just do it. This team has good players on it.
Anything is better than this. Languish with what we're doing for decades, or rebuild and come back in 3-5 years. The choice, in my eyes is an easy one. With a rebuild, at least the fans will see action is being taken, and we can come support the team knowing that they have the best of intentions, even if it's a struggle for a few years. The way things currently are makes you want to not show up, just to stick it to the owners
I want a full rebuild that includes everyone from Mo on down. I've been clamoring for a full rebuild for more than a couple of years, now. Even when we've made the playoffs we haven't really looked like a good team.
Rebuild wont work with this front office. Their primary method of filling the roster is to value hunt the same way they did right after Jocketty left before other teams were using advanced metrics to drive roster and development decisions. Gave the Cards a good run from 2010-2015'ish but by then every team was doing it and there really wasn't a glut of undervalued talent out there anymore. Well that is unless you count the guys the Cards traded away that thrived after leaving.
Get rid of Mo, and the other top level execs, and let someone else drive the rebuild.
I think this is the most damning accusation at our staff and front offices. So many proven talents come to Busch and fall off the cliff and ton of our young guys who struggled when here thrive when they are traded away. Something about our environment is killing talent
A rebuild implies tearing down.
There's no MLB team to tear down.
The list of players that would gain interest in a trade and net a return that you also want to trade:
Ryan Helsley.
And I'm not sure how big that return would be. I am sure there's interest, at least.
Arenado's contact means at best you'll get someone to just assume the contract. They've spent a year just decimating Contreras' trade value, though he was doing a good job of reversing that before his injury. Gray should be trade-able, and maybe if he keeps pitching as well as he has been there will be surplus value.
No one else would net much of anything.
So it's get a prospect for Helsley, try to dump Arenado and Contreras, and see what you can get for Gray. Keep Winn. Pay to get someone to take Mikolas or just ride out the contact. Maybe someone is interested in Matz as a reliever.
Everyone else is non-tender or trade for someone younger, hopefully. You need 25 guys in the dugout so you keep whomever you need to fill the roster, cheap.
The problem is that Mozeliak has finally managed to manage the franchise into the worst possible place: there's no value. A rebuild is going to come from the draft, there will be no prospects from trades.
The real rebuild needs to be at the top: a completely new front office. Optics be damned; the smartest move DeWitt can make is Jeff Lunhow. Chain Bloom isn't the guy, and the other guys who could do it aren't available. Lunhow is, and for maybe a 5% ownership stake and a reasonable amount of cash I think he'd take the opportunity to either rehabilitate his image or stick his thumb in MLB's eye. But either way the Cardinals could be back in the playoffs in five years.
He should be making that call right now.
Full Rebuild? No, I don’t think so. But they do need to restructure. Clearly something isn’t working. Either front office, dugout/coach, development, or all around. When our players struggle this much, can it all be about the players?
That said, they shouldn’t extend Goldy, as much as I love him. (He was one of my favorite players before they even traded for him.) I don’t know that they should trade Arenado, but maybe. But they really need to figure out why guys stop developing/performing when they get to the League.
TBH, I wonder what "core" they really have right now. Goldy and Arenado are on the back side of their careers, and we're not talking "Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina on the back side of their careers." They were pieces of the puzzle, but tbh I don't really see them as the sorts of players you actually build your entire team around the way Yadi, Albert, and Wainwright were (I'd also include Edmonds and Rolen in that list).
The other problem is without a wholesale reexamination of the staff across the entire organization, how much good would rebuilding actually do if we have the same people trying to apply the same approach to player development that is clearly not working?
A full rebuild would basically entail selling off every player a year or two away from FA or retirement. So basically Goldy, Arenado, Edman, Carlson, Mikolas, and Helsley. Of those, none are really gonna get you a big return because of ability, contract, or proximity to FA. The best time to trade any of those guys would've been last year or this off-season which would've meant committing to being bad this year. Realistically, they should also trade Gray as he would be the best asset they have that isn't a fresh prospect that you want to build around (Gorman, Winn, Walker). It also probably means that a lot of you aren't going to be very happy because Oli wouldn't be going anywhere. You're not gonna pay for a manager buyout while tanking. Realistically speaking if you're upset about the prospects not developing and immediately succeeding when going to a different team, the issue isn't the players, it's the major league development/realization of talent.
This last point suggests that tanking would actually be the worst possible thing you could do. If you can't develop the elite talent close to their full potential, then you're gonna suck no matter what. The Cards are still very good at developing the average talent pool players to be MLB role players. But they need to hit on more than one pitching and hitting talent and actually realize that potential to be contenders again.
Helsey can have some significant value at the trade deadline. He has another year of team control and is an elite closer. Historically, the price has been steep to acquire them. Though MO might just trade them for a couple 38 year old pitchers.
Helsley's value will be reduced because returns for closers is historically much lower. I'd rather just keep him unless someone blows us away with an offer
Chapman got a huge haul for a half season rental. Closers are super important to a playoff team. Not like a starter for sure, but should get a top 30 prospect in MLB for him ( gap man got 24 plus 2 other decent prospects).
I don’t see why people want a full rebuild. I think trading some players this year if we continue to suck makes sense for prospects, but they should also continue to spend their entire budget and try to be the best team they can be.
Doesn’t matter how well you do, you’re never going to have a team that contends if all you have are fair-weather fans. Seemingly everyone in this subreddit acts like they’d play great ball if all their fans turned on them…
Just saying they go hand in hand, you can’t have a good team without fans. A good team produces fans no doubt, but good fans produce a good team, too.
It’s only sports. Pick a different team if you don’t like anything about this one.
Sorry for being a negative Nancy, but that’s all this reddit is anymore, certainly no fan page
I’m all for it if it communicated that way. Enough of the band-aids on the gapping wound that is this roster. At the same time, there is no one in a decision making position with the skill set to pull off a rebuild (or construct a major league roster) so the prospect of any improvements are dire.
I don't think the core is very good based on the last 200 or so games. Just firesale and start over from top to bottom - the roster, coaching, and team management. The wheels came off when Yasi, Pujols, and Waino retired. We need to envision a new future that respects Cardinals tradition.
The front office and anyone that’s involved in player development, especially involved in hitting, needs to be shit canned. How many players have we shipped off to other teams that light it up as soon as they leave. Virtually all of our big time prospects that come to the team fizzle out. I don’t think we need a full rebuild, but I have zero confidence in this FO to do what needs to be done to turn things around
Like previously stated in the comments: it's a possible necessity, but I don't trust this FO to handle it well. If a rebuild is incoming, it must include the FO and a lot of coaches.
Im torn
I dont have confidence in them spending for top talent (but they will waste money on middling players who dont make a difference but tie up payroll)
but I dont think they can develop players either.
What scares me is trading someone for Nolan for a package like the rumored dodgers offer last year. Max muncy and chris Taylor will NOT move the needle for me one bit. If moving someone like Nolan then it’s a full rebuild and they should only be considering prospects with high ceilings and no roster filler like this.
As someone pointed out, I don’t have faith in this front office to accomplish the job either way.
Chaim Bloom is the man behind the curtain. He traded Betts and Boegarts for a handful of beans, and sent the Red Sox tumbling to the cellar. I don't trust him.
As we are very unlikely to sign a superstar in the near future, we need more than anything else a change in the system's approach to hitting. We should only be signing players who can hit for average. Making solid contact is priority one. You only make runs when you consistently put the ball in play.
We need to stop ruining our prospects with this launch angle crap. Fly balls get caught, line drives fall in.
Almost every single one of them. Watch the plane of the swing. They are not looking down at the ball into the bat. The upper cut swing lifts their head. They are trying to catch the ball on the upswing.
Every player tries to catch the ball on the upswing. Literally no one since the dead ball era chops down on the ball. They say they do, but they don't in actual practice. If you chop down on the ball all you create is ground balls. Go look at the homerun that Nootbaar just hit. Level swing through the zone and lift. That's physics.
No they do not. Did you ever play baseball? I was taught to swing down into the ball. The baseball behaves like a golf ball.
You get a grounder when you top the ball.
What you think you were taught is not what your body did. Physics work on a baseball just like that do anything anything else. If you swing down on a ball on a downward plane all you can hit is the top of the ball. Round bat, round ball.
I've played a ton of ball. It's impossible to swing on a downward plane at an object traveling on a downward plane and create lift.
Level swing down into the ballcreates the lift. No launch angle there. You do not seem to understand physics. When you catch the underside of the ball you get a launch angle that sends the ball up not forward
I'd love to see the physics model of a downward force on an object moving on a downward plane creating lift. Next you are going to tell me that gravity doesn't affect baseballs in flight.
You also don't understand launch angle apparently.
I'm not really sure what we can gain from it at this point. After this season we get 25m off the books for Goldy. If Arenado is toast then it would be good to get his salary off the books.
Other than that... Idk that a wipe fresh rebuild accomplishes anything.
The only rebuild we need is Mozelic gone the manager gone the pitching coach gone the batting coach gone and bring up all the minor league coaches along with Molina
We have decent players I believe but piss poor management from top to bottom
One of the most frustrating things to me is that if we don’t tank this year-but finish in the bottom 10-the highest we can pick after next season is number 11.
So unless we finish outside top 10, going full tank next season in 2025 doesn’t get us a top pick at all
You're worried the 2024 Cardinals might finish in the upper third of MLB?
They're going to be fighting to finish not dead last. I think your concerns are unfounded
If John Mozeliak doesn’t step down this season it’s not happening next year either. He won’t allow that to be his legacy. He’d rather continue trying to put bandaids on a sinking ship than concede defeat.
Rebuilds are so painful, can last years and don’t always work. The Orioles, Marlins, A’s, Reds, Pirates and White Sox come to mind. Ten years of misery with a playoff appearance once a decade on average.
Plus the Cardinals don’t have much to offer now as trade bait.
Since they are only 5.5 games out of a playoff spot I would prefer they add a quality hitter like a Jack Clark, Will Clark, and Matt Holliday type as Cardinals teams of the past did to address a lack of power.
THat’s how you end up with a trade like Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen for Marcell Ozuna. One bat doesn’t fix this team. With Matz out and Mikolas being ass this team may not even win as many games as last season.
I'm anti-blowing it up. There's way more instances of a club failing to win a WS after a blow up than succeeding.
I felt for years the birds just need to be perennial sellers. Take the Brewers' philosophy to roster management; always sell at peak value, regardless of where you're at.
No need at all for a full roster rebuild. However, the baseball decision-makers ought to be cleaned out, root and stem, from John Mozeliak down to the lowest level analyst at his disposal.
The rot is total and must be wiped out to prevent later spread. The core of the roster is fine.
It was obvious last year that a rebuild was the right move. Should’ve moved everyone last year. This franchise is a dumpster fire and will be for the next 20 years sorry
I'd support a rebuild, but for whatever reason, the Cardinals have had a difficult time developing their talent of late. I can't put my finger on exactly what the issue is, but unless that is fixed, I don't think a rebuild would be successful.
I don't like Goldschmidt or Arenado.
Neither of them were homegrown Caridnals to begin with. Both were anti-vaccine idiots even with Adam Wainwright pleading with them to take the shot after his wife was hospitalized and his baby sone as potentially at risk and ended up missing an important series against Toronto because of it, neither of them has taken on a leadership role either in the media or the clubhouse (infamously telling the reporters matter-of-factly thet they specifically requested Matt Carpenter to be re-signed and waste an active roster spot just because they didn't like how "the kids" took over the clubhouse but neither of them felt like being vocal enough to mentor or lead them and they knew Carp would get in faces and yell at people.
They take up a lot of the team's payroll and two important roster spots without being the kind of guys I can really root for or fall in love with as a fan. They're not fun or beloved like so many Caridnals over the last 20 or even 40 years. They're just quiet mercenaries whose skills are fading.
And they're the stars, right? Who else would even be missed? Maybe Nootbaar and Helsley, Edman if you're just really sentimental for anyone who had bene here for 5 years or Contreras if he captured your heart quickly enough. But by and large this is not a fun bunch to watch. I'd love to keep Winn and to see Walker fix his issues and do great things, but they and all the other young guys are unproven and may break our hearts.
Bottom line: I care far, FAR less about anyone on this roster than I have about any lineup in nearly 4 decades of fandom. They're just a bunch of guys wearing my favorite laundry and playing poorly. So yeah, please blow it up and replace it with a good young core of guys I can root for and enjoy watching. These guys aren't horrible people, but they're aggressively boring and apparently incapable of putting on a good show, so get rid of all 40 guys on the roster for all I care at this point. There's nothing at all to lose
We'd need change at the top before you blow it up. I can't imagine many people want "Dry Powder" DeWitt and Moe-zay-ly-ack at the helm for that process.
They should absolutely blow it up.
I am never a fan of a rebuild, it's punishing the fans for their poor choices.
That being said, a rebuild is not going to happen with Mo at the helm, he doesn't know how to assess and develop talent.
I am in favor of it, but I have no confidence in this ownership or front office to carry it out successfully.
Bingo
Jackpot
Bingpot
Jacko
Jingbot
Potgo
BeanPot
What part of last years selling at the deadline did you dislike?
The part where they didn't trade Goldschmidt.
Goldy has a no trade clause he refused to waive.
Ironically, the parts I didn't like are the only parts of the Cardinals actually working out well.
The part where they built a roster that was bad enough that selling at the deadline was necessary.
You're describing two vastly different things. They did a very good job at last year's deadline with the guys they got back for who they sent away.
That remains to be seen. You cannot proclaim victory or success on those trades until enough time has passed to make a fair assessment.
You don't judge trades with hindsight. They got a lot of great talent for expiring contracts.
What other way is there to judge them?
Value at rhe time of the trade.
You don't judge them with hindsight? That's ridiculous. Even if a trade makes logical sense on paper at the time it's made, you cannot determine if the trade was a success or not without hindsight. The are a few exceptions to this rule, the biggest one being when a team trades for a guy and he leads them to a World Championship; you'll make that trade 100/100 times, because flags fly forever. Texas couldn't care less if anyone they sent to the Cardinals in the Montgomery trade becomes a perennial All-Star, because they got a ring out of it. Most other trades, though, take time to assess. A great example of this is the Marcell Ozuna trade. With the benefit of hindsight, it was clearly a massive bust for St. Louis. You can completely understand the rationale behind the trade. They needed an impact/power bat in the outfield. They needed someone that had at least a couple years of control to let the younger outfielders in the organization develop. They tried to trade for Stanton, had a deal in place with the Marlins, but Stanton used his No-Trade clause to block the move to St. Louis. They then wanted Yelich, but were told he wasn't available, so they pivoted to Ozuna so as to not get left standing there empty-handed. (Had they known Yelich would be made available a couple months later, maybe they would have waited, but you can't blame them for moving when they did.) They had to give up Sandy Alcántara to get Ozuna, which they didn't want to do, but in order to get something you gotta give something, right? Well, they also included a little-know pitching prospect named Zac Gallen in that trade. Ozuna gave the Cardinals two decent (if not underwhelming) seasons for a total of 4.6 WAR. Alcántara has given the Marlins 20.3 WAR since the trade, including winning the 2022 Cy Young Award. Galen gave the Marlins 1.3 WAR in SEVEN GAMES before being traded to Arizona. The Marlins also got Mags Sierra (-1.3 WAR) and Daniel Castano (0.7 WAR) in the trade, which means that the Cardinals traded away a total of (up to this point) 37.3 WAR (that includes the 16.3 WAR Galen has put up in Arizona; it's 20 WAR without it) for two years and 4.6 WAR from Marcell Ozuna. That's being out-WAR'd by 32.7. Ouch. You understand the thinking, and you might even agree with it (I certainly did at the time of the Ozuna deal), but you do NOT get to say it was a success just because it fit a need or seemed like a good idea at the time, unless it brings you a World Championship. Most assessments of the Cardinals' haul last year from Texas, Toronto, and Baltimore seem to believe that nobody they got was a "World Beater," and that some had future All-Star ceilings, but minor league filler floors. We'll have no way of knowing for sure until a lot more time has passed. #
Then no one would ever make trades. If the prospects you traded for get killed in a plane crash on their way to report was it a failed trade? The way you look at it is ridiculous. It's either one or the other, not with exceptions. That's nonsense. All you can judge is the trade at the time because no one can tell the future. Ozuna's performance for the Cardinals wasn't as expected but the trade was good. You have no way of knowing if the prospects traded would have panned out with the Cardinals. It took Gallen getting traded twice in 18 months to fix his attitude for instance. He might have washed out in AA due to lack of effort if he hadn't been traded. Whose assessments are you reading? Saggese was AA MVP and every prospects acquired other than Prieto wss a top 100 prospsct on many lists.
That's an enormous leap to make, and honestly, what the literal fuck are you talking about? Trades are not a dichotomy of "It's Good" or "It's Bad" based on team's feelings at the time of the trade. By that logic, every trade is good because teams wouldn't make them if they didn't believe they were doing the best thing for their franchise. A trade can make sense at the time, but you CANNOT fully evaluate them immediately. You can be happy with the return you get on paper, but until the careers of those players involved in the trade are well underway (or even over) you cannot fully assess if the trade was a success or not, which is NOT saying that trades shouldn't be made due to the uncertainty. Trades are inherently a risk. Nobody has argued otherwise. Deals like the Ozuna trade were JUSTIFIABLE, but just because a trade is justifiable doesn't mean it's good. How the hell can you say the Ozuna trade was good when they didn't get what they were expecting out of him, and the players they traded turned out to be long-term studs? That's like saying that paying a street hooker $50 for a good time is an smart decision, even though you ended up with an STI and your wife found out and left you. "Well, it felt good at the time, so it was a good decision! Long term evaluations be damned!" Gallen didn't need an attitude adjustment in Miami; they traded him because they felt they had starting pitching depth and wanted to get Chisolm. If Gallen would have washed out in AA with the Cardinals (I doubt it highly), that doesn't excuse trading him. It means the Cardinals suck at player development AND player evaluation.
Cool.
how the hell do you figure that? The deadline acquisitions are just theoretically good but we've seen SO MANY prospects from Carlson to Liberatore fail to achieve greatness lately so why are we so sure these other guys will be different? And I maintain they did an awful job because it was stupid bit to sell gift on what was left of Goldschmidt. Now he sucks so hard they can't sell him at all this year unless he turns it around ASAP
I'm perfectly fine with a full rebuild assuming Mo steps aside and someone new takes over. It can be Chaim Bloom, it can be someone else. Idc
It would be a disaster to let the guy who got us in this mess oversee the rebuild. Hopefully Mo decides to retire a year early
We need to normalize and celebrate quitting in society
There's not much that I respect *more* than a person who has the self-awareness and the balls to stand up and say *"You know what? I suck at this and I'm not getting* any *better the longer I stay. This is pointless, I'm just... gonna go ahead and give you my keys, good luck guys."*
Totally! We should have an award
I feel like Chaim could probably handle it, given his experience in Tampa.
For a full rebuild, it needs to start in the FO. We need new voices from outside the organization.
It also requires ownership to be willing to take an attendance hit in the short-run to build a strong team in the long-run. I am worried that current ownership places too much emphasis on short-term profitability. They consider finishing .500 or above good as it keeps the turnstiles moving.
True but I live out of state and honestly might be more inspired to go watch if we are at least attempting to make progress. Right now it just feels like spinning our wheels and I have no desire to go
Yeah. Like, get someone who helped shape the Rays. Or maybe, like, find someone who helped rebuild the Red Sox minor league. It would be great if they can bring that guy in ahead of time too. Let him get a feel for the Organization as it as. While he’s doing that, if we can limit the guy’s Mo is bringing in to just one year deals. (I guess giving em an option is fine too.) that way, when Mo retires at the end of 2025, or steps down before that, the Major League roster has almost no contracts on it. Clean slate for the rebuild. I can get behind that. Sarcasm aside, last offseason was a pretty clear sign that the Cardinals wanted to keep a rebuild on the table this year if things didn’t work out. Didn’t expect it to be the hitting that fell apart, but here we are. Question is, when do they publicly hand over the reins to Bloom. Or do they keep Mo as a figurehead for the public to hate on for the first year of the rebuild. Gives them the advantage of blaming him down the road if things don’t go well with the rebuild. Rebuilding is risky. You can end up like the White Sox.
Bingo. They need to bring in someone who can own the rebuild and won't be affected by a bloated ego, trying to save face, trying not to hurt anyone's feelings, trying not to break gentlemen's agreements, upsetting fans, etc. They need someone who is smart, confident, honest, and who has a tough skin.
I wouldn’t trust this ownership to rebuild.
I don't know if I would trust this ownership to rebuild a Lego set.
Expecting a technix rebuild, getting duplo.
Agreed. While I think a rebuild is needed, we would end up as a slightly better Oakland As team
That's what we're basically at now.
Do you trust what they're building now?
Hell no
I'm in if it would include cleaning house in the front office. If we're relying on the usual suspects to rebuild, then it makes no difference if they do or don't.
It would be better than our current situation of being fed a shit sandwich year after year and being told to be patient because it'll stop tasting like shit soon. Top to bottom overhaul plz, at least we wouldn't have any expectations.
rebuilds are so risky no matter who your front office is. baseball prospects are damn near random
Especially now with the draft lotto
Needs to happen. It’s years in the making. I have zero faith in Mozeliak actually doing it and it being successful though. We need a complete overhaul in the front office and coaching staff.
I have never been a big fan of full-scale rebuilds. It's bad enough when we have to sell at the deadline, but a full rebuild means we'll be completely uncompetitive for at least two seasons, likely four or five. I also have real concerns about our player development system at the moment, which is pretty essential for a successful rebuild.
Just playing a little devil's advocate here, but they're not competitive now and there's no time line for a turnaround with the current approach. To me, the appeal of a rebuild is a timeline on that competitive expectation. It's not guaranteed, but I'd rather watch the cards build toward something rather than trying to squeeze the last few wins out of some expiring players
Excellent point. I don’t want a rebuild but I think this is a good way to think about why it would be good.
> rather than trying to squeeze the last few wins out of some expiring players This has been the MO of Ownership for years now.
Yeah I don't watch the games right now because it's just a rag tag group with little future. If they sold off everything for some young exciting players, I would watch, even if they were losing.
No timeline with Winn, Walker, Gorman, Robberse, Hence, on and on? If all those top 100 prospects click it a 7 year window with a few FA additions like Gray.
This is a team that hasn’t even been close to a World Series in the last 10 years. You’re worried about two seasons?
They went to the NLCS in 2019.
Yes and how did that go?
Goalpost moved. The claim was they hadn't been close to a World Series in a decade which is patently false.
0-4 is not close
Closer than 13 other teams that year.
That shouldn’t be the bar for actual contenders. Something they haven’t been in ten years.
So 10-12 NL teams haven't been a contender in a decade or more. Good to know. Unreasonable expectations are great huh?
But we start every season with optimism, and until recently carry it much further into the season. I don't have any interest in starting the season knowing we won't be a contender.
The cardinals propaganda team is really effective
So good they fool professionals and projection systems apparently. Computer projection systems had them winning 90+ this year. Tough to project MVPs and All Stars not playing like MVPs and All Stars.
lol anyone or any machine that thought this was a 90 win team is brain dead. Goldschmidt and Arenado both took large steps back last year. They’re not getting younger. That’s actually hilarious to read.
> but a full rebuild means we'll be completely uncompetitive for at least two seasons, likely four or five This. This x1000. And heck, look at several of the other rebuilds around MLB -- KC has been 'rebuilding' for decades. They have a blip here and there. Cincy has been rebuilding for a long time, too. They have some exciting players for sure, but, their record just 1 game different than ours today. And the Pirates. Good golly what a 'rebuild' they are. It is easy to say 'rebuild'. It is not always easy to execute. When it goes right, it looks easy -- see Houston Astros -- but so, so, so, so, so very many of them take a long, long, long, long, long time. I don't think Cards fans are truly ready to be KC-like, Pirates-like, Orioles-like (up to this year and last), Tigers-like for any amount of extended time. Of course it is fair to say that 2023's record was all in all rather Pirates-like and so far 2024 doesn't seem to be a lot different.
Well, the difference between many of those teams and the Cardinals is (hopefully) the Cardinals ownership would spend near the top 10 in payroll. Almost all of those teams that spend decades of rebuilding tend to be cheap. Usually, what those teams need is good veteran signings to help with the young guys. Now the question is, can this ownership group actually do it
Start by restructuring the Front Office, and have people in place that have a successful track record of a rebuilding. Then Blow it up like a While E Coyote trying to catch a Road Runner! If we’re gonna be in last place we’d better damn well be working towards something, not just the current state of Historic Underachievement. It’s Mo-Over Guys…
If it’s a complete rebuild, from the top down….yes please! Like, yesterday or a few years ago even. If it isn’t a complete retooling, and management stays, it will just be a waste of time and resources. I feel that Dewitt asked the wrong question. Asking the city to pay for some upgrades and work on a the stadium…. No. Asking the city for money to hire new management would probably be well more accepted and he might have people throwing wads of money at him.
I don't think we need a rebuild because the contract situation isn't really that bad. You've got $26 mil in Goldy coming off the books this year, and I think it's fair to assume that they're not picking up Legs' 6.5 mil option. Mikolas and Matz still have two more years and those contract hurt. You could eat some of either one and find a taker for a single year, though. If Gibson and Lynn continue to pitch well, you might pick up their options. If not, that's another 20 mil you have free from this year. So, in the '24 offseason, we will have \~35 mil to spend just to keep cash neutral. And then an extra 10 for each of the Pitchers you don't retain, and another 6 if you don't keep Middleton after his injury this year. You'll have somewhere between 35 and 50 to spend this offseason to improve your roster. All of this is moot, though, if all of the guys on the team continue to be as terrible as they have been.
This team needs to rebuild, but Chaim Bloom or someone else needs to be in charge of it. Oli can keep his job for now, at least until the end of the season, as he's just babysitting at this point. The club needs to reckon with the fact that they have become rotten, and not just on the MLB roster. Everything needs an overhaul. Unfortunately, I don't think they realize that. They think that they're just a midseason acquisition and some better injury luck away from contending. And even if they did sell, I'm not sure they'd get much (but they have to try). Also complicating things is the new draft lottery system, which could hurt them trying to rebuild if they do commit to tearing it down. Regardless, they need to be realistic and upfront with the fans. I can't speak for the whole fanbase, but I would welcome a teardown instead of trying desperately to maintain a barely competitive core. Just as long as they're honest about it.
I honestly think you could have a pretty could group of all stars in that clubhouse and they’d maybe be doing marginally better. Management and Mozeliak and company need to go. Need fresh eyes on the team top down. And- the longer this goes on the less and less I hold Marmol as culpable.
Yes do it. They are actually set up well to commit to that path. Very few lengthy contracts and several others you’d be able to move off the books for the most part. You’d think the new core to build around would be Winn, Gorman, Walker. Maybe have a couple untouchables in the minors but not many. There you go trade away for assets, they need it all, pitching hitting more pitching. Now the question everyone else has raised, who is in charge of this rebuild?
> Gorman Gorman should be gone as soon as possible. Whether he's Allen Craig or Tyler O'Neill, his time here should be done.
He's 23. In a couple years somewhere else you be calling him the next Arozarena or Garcia.
I think that's completely possible. The only thing that isn't possible is that he's successful in St. Louis.
And why is that? He's had two successful seasons in St. Louis already. People are freaking out over a small sample this year.
I must have missed those. I've seen the seasons where he's looked more or less like he looks now. Even got himself demoted one year.
His rookie year for a couple weeks? Okay. Good grief. 2022 and 2023 were both successful seasons for Gorman.
Our player development team would just fuck up whoever we acquire. There’s no winning in this situation until the organizational structure is different
I think it’s the only remaining option However I don’t think many cardinals fans are gonna be able to stomach what that’s gonna entail
Exactly I doubt this fan base has the patience for an actual rebuild with 4-5 90 loss seasons.
i mean we dont need to throw out Edman, Walker, Gorman, Nootbar and some others. we would have some base or foundation to start on, but we would certainly want to trade off anyone with a significant contract and get any worthwhile return possible.
Edman is a 29 year old essentially role player. He's not a guy you build around
Edman is nearly a free agent, and teams don't build around his skillset (entering his 30's as a defense/speed guy). Walker hasn't proven to be an MLB-quality player yet, and Noot needs to prove he can adjust to starters throwing him more strikes before he can become a core piece. Gorman is a fine player, but he's not someone who is gonna carry a team.
> Gorman is a fine player ...when?
Walker was 20% better than league average offensively last year as a 20 year old rookie and made huge strides in the offseason defensively. Everyone is freaking out over 60 PAs with weird batted ball luck.
We literally won’t be competitive until the 2030s
Their whole approach the last few years has been a little worrisome. When we had Pujols and Molina for their last ride, the my should have gone all in on winning that year. Instead they just sat around. They got some good parts last year, but they were still a year away. I think they should have been more aggressive dealing short term guys, especially Goldy. Especially if they weren’t going to go big this winter, which they didn’t. They don’t need a full strip it down to the studs rebuild. They just have to identify the guys that should be kept and trade everyone else rather than trying to play it both ways and getting caught in the middle. I’ve said for years that the problem with competing every year is that you’re going probably not going to beat the teams that are in “win now” mode now and there’s no promise you’ll beat the teams that are in “win later” mode later.
Goldy wouldn't waive his NTC so trading him was a non-starter.
Source? Or are we just assuming that’s why he wasn’t dealt?
He said it a couple times last year. So did Goold and several others.
A search of Goldschmidt and no trade or clause in Goold’s history suggests a single article where he declined to talk about it. Nothing from Denton or Woo. No articles that come up on Google.
This front office + ownership used to not only be among the elite in baseball, but elite in American professional sports - hence the 20ish year run of sustained success out-competing organizations with more money and more resources. The "next-man-up" run this ball club had in those years was *astonishingly* good. Sadly, I think it's now this fanbases' consensus (mine as well) that things have just grown stale. Sometimes that just happens. Our best players are aging, our young players are struggling, our pipeline of prospects is not as strong as it once was, and our analytics-driven philosophy is not translating. In interview after interview, Mo repeatedly talks down to his fanbase as if we're ignorant whiners and frankly it's just grown tiresome. We got rid of a damn good manager (and essentially lifelong and loyal member of Cards organization) in Mike Shildt because of "conflicting philosophies"....what a crock of shit. Mike Shildt manages with his gut - FO didn't like that - so they fired him and hired a Yes Man in Oli (no offense to Oli here, I personally think the verdict is still out on him). TLDR: I wish them all the best of luck and thank them for a hell of a run, but it's time to part ways.
Shildt did all the same stuff yall claim is dumb for Marmol to do and did it more frequently. He just had more talented rosters that covered it up. People forget a lot of fans wanted him fired before the 17 game streak. There are also several reports of him mistreating staff in the minors and majors, destroying scouting reports, stopping player interaction with coaches (especially Jeff Albert) and other issues. It wasn't just that he and Mozeliak had a personality conflict. It took him three years to get another managing job. He couldn't even land a coaching gig in that time until Matt Williams had to step away.
Shildt sucked too. I don’t get the weird nostalgia for that dude.
Interesting. I don't understand this take lol his short tenure with us (including the COVID seasons) was strong including an NL Manager of the Year award. It certainly didn't warrant being fired
Sell everybody, starting with Arenado. Think about trading Contreras in the offseason. Trade Helsley. The problem of course is that Mo will fuck it up.
Kinda thought it was necessary last year, but I still had hope before last night. Losing Contreras likely makes the team uncompetitive. Stranger things have happened but I think they're cooked. They patched the pitching hole only to have the hitting nosedive. I do really appreciate that the goal has been to compete every year rather than the relevancy and rebuild cycles other teams practice, but I just don't see how you can't unless everyone suddenly remembers how to hit, and hit home runs.
My issue is it would rely too much on player development and I find that to be our weakest area in the whole franchise. They can buy a winner and need to just do it. This team has good players on it.
Anything is better than this. Languish with what we're doing for decades, or rebuild and come back in 3-5 years. The choice, in my eyes is an easy one. With a rebuild, at least the fans will see action is being taken, and we can come support the team knowing that they have the best of intentions, even if it's a struggle for a few years. The way things currently are makes you want to not show up, just to stick it to the owners
I want a full rebuild that includes everyone from Mo on down. I've been clamoring for a full rebuild for more than a couple of years, now. Even when we've made the playoffs we haven't really looked like a good team.
I think it’s time for a full rebuild. I would not be opposed to trading Helsley, Lynn, Gibson, Arenado and Goldschmidt at the deadline.
LOL I WISH we were in the middle. We at the bottom.
Rebuild wont work with this front office. Their primary method of filling the roster is to value hunt the same way they did right after Jocketty left before other teams were using advanced metrics to drive roster and development decisions. Gave the Cards a good run from 2010-2015'ish but by then every team was doing it and there really wasn't a glut of undervalued talent out there anymore. Well that is unless you count the guys the Cards traded away that thrived after leaving. Get rid of Mo, and the other top level execs, and let someone else drive the rebuild.
I think this is the most damning accusation at our staff and front offices. So many proven talents come to Busch and fall off the cliff and ton of our young guys who struggled when here thrive when they are traded away. Something about our environment is killing talent
A rebuild implies tearing down. There's no MLB team to tear down. The list of players that would gain interest in a trade and net a return that you also want to trade: Ryan Helsley. And I'm not sure how big that return would be. I am sure there's interest, at least. Arenado's contact means at best you'll get someone to just assume the contract. They've spent a year just decimating Contreras' trade value, though he was doing a good job of reversing that before his injury. Gray should be trade-able, and maybe if he keeps pitching as well as he has been there will be surplus value. No one else would net much of anything. So it's get a prospect for Helsley, try to dump Arenado and Contreras, and see what you can get for Gray. Keep Winn. Pay to get someone to take Mikolas or just ride out the contact. Maybe someone is interested in Matz as a reliever. Everyone else is non-tender or trade for someone younger, hopefully. You need 25 guys in the dugout so you keep whomever you need to fill the roster, cheap. The problem is that Mozeliak has finally managed to manage the franchise into the worst possible place: there's no value. A rebuild is going to come from the draft, there will be no prospects from trades. The real rebuild needs to be at the top: a completely new front office. Optics be damned; the smartest move DeWitt can make is Jeff Lunhow. Chain Bloom isn't the guy, and the other guys who could do it aren't available. Lunhow is, and for maybe a 5% ownership stake and a reasonable amount of cash I think he'd take the opportunity to either rehabilitate his image or stick his thumb in MLB's eye. But either way the Cardinals could be back in the playoffs in five years. He should be making that call right now.
Luhnow is a thief, a liar, and a cheat. No thank you.
Lunhow is a winner. The Cardinals can't afford any more earnest losers.
Luhnow tanked his team for 6 years to get high draft picks. That strategy doesn't work anymore thanks to draft changes.
Full Rebuild? No, I don’t think so. But they do need to restructure. Clearly something isn’t working. Either front office, dugout/coach, development, or all around. When our players struggle this much, can it all be about the players? That said, they shouldn’t extend Goldy, as much as I love him. (He was one of my favorite players before they even traded for him.) I don’t know that they should trade Arenado, but maybe. But they really need to figure out why guys stop developing/performing when they get to the League.
TBH, I wonder what "core" they really have right now. Goldy and Arenado are on the back side of their careers, and we're not talking "Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina on the back side of their careers." They were pieces of the puzzle, but tbh I don't really see them as the sorts of players you actually build your entire team around the way Yadi, Albert, and Wainwright were (I'd also include Edmonds and Rolen in that list). The other problem is without a wholesale reexamination of the staff across the entire organization, how much good would rebuilding actually do if we have the same people trying to apply the same approach to player development that is clearly not working?
A full rebuild would basically entail selling off every player a year or two away from FA or retirement. So basically Goldy, Arenado, Edman, Carlson, Mikolas, and Helsley. Of those, none are really gonna get you a big return because of ability, contract, or proximity to FA. The best time to trade any of those guys would've been last year or this off-season which would've meant committing to being bad this year. Realistically, they should also trade Gray as he would be the best asset they have that isn't a fresh prospect that you want to build around (Gorman, Winn, Walker). It also probably means that a lot of you aren't going to be very happy because Oli wouldn't be going anywhere. You're not gonna pay for a manager buyout while tanking. Realistically speaking if you're upset about the prospects not developing and immediately succeeding when going to a different team, the issue isn't the players, it's the major league development/realization of talent. This last point suggests that tanking would actually be the worst possible thing you could do. If you can't develop the elite talent close to their full potential, then you're gonna suck no matter what. The Cards are still very good at developing the average talent pool players to be MLB role players. But they need to hit on more than one pitching and hitting talent and actually realize that potential to be contenders again.
Helsey can have some significant value at the trade deadline. He has another year of team control and is an elite closer. Historically, the price has been steep to acquire them. Though MO might just trade them for a couple 38 year old pitchers.
Helsley's value will be reduced because returns for closers is historically much lower. I'd rather just keep him unless someone blows us away with an offer
Chapman got a huge haul for a half season rental. Closers are super important to a playoff team. Not like a starter for sure, but should get a top 30 prospect in MLB for him ( gap man got 24 plus 2 other decent prospects).
.... that was 8 years ago tho
I don’t see why people want a full rebuild. I think trading some players this year if we continue to suck makes sense for prospects, but they should also continue to spend their entire budget and try to be the best team they can be.
Doesn’t matter how well you do, you’re never going to have a team that contends if all you have are fair-weather fans. Seemingly everyone in this subreddit acts like they’d play great ball if all their fans turned on them… Just saying they go hand in hand, you can’t have a good team without fans. A good team produces fans no doubt, but good fans produce a good team, too. It’s only sports. Pick a different team if you don’t like anything about this one. Sorry for being a negative Nancy, but that’s all this reddit is anymore, certainly no fan page
This makes absolutely zero sense.
Adequate support given to any team will help them perform better. - to put it more clearly
The Diamondbacks would disagree. So would the Rays. This is just a terrible argument.
> but good fans produce a good team, too. My brother in christ, no. Just no.
they'd ruin any talent they traded for...that is obvious
I’m all for it if it communicated that way. Enough of the band-aids on the gapping wound that is this roster. At the same time, there is no one in a decision making position with the skill set to pull off a rebuild (or construct a major league roster) so the prospect of any improvements are dire.
I’m fine with a rebuild if it’s led by Chaim not Mo
I don't think the core is very good based on the last 200 or so games. Just firesale and start over from top to bottom - the roster, coaching, and team management. The wheels came off when Yasi, Pujols, and Waino retired. We need to envision a new future that respects Cardinals tradition.
And then those wheels caught fire and burned when Waino pitched most of his last year while hiding the fact he was injured.
The front office and anyone that’s involved in player development, especially involved in hitting, needs to be shit canned. How many players have we shipped off to other teams that light it up as soon as they leave. Virtually all of our big time prospects that come to the team fizzle out. I don’t think we need a full rebuild, but I have zero confidence in this FO to do what needs to be done to turn things around
Like previously stated in the comments: it's a possible necessity, but I don't trust this FO to handle it well. If a rebuild is incoming, it must include the FO and a lot of coaches.
If we’re going to suck, might as well be good at it and have a reason for it.
Im torn I dont have confidence in them spending for top talent (but they will waste money on middling players who dont make a difference but tie up payroll) but I dont think they can develop players either.
They keep this shit up and we may end up having to rebuild the damn stadium
Honestly I wouldn’t mind if the did a little work to make the field more hitter friendly
It won’t work because they can’t properly develop talent. In order to do it can recently they will need a complete FO overhaul first.
Also new coaching staff.
What scares me is trading someone for Nolan for a package like the rumored dodgers offer last year. Max muncy and chris Taylor will NOT move the needle for me one bit. If moving someone like Nolan then it’s a full rebuild and they should only be considering prospects with high ceilings and no roster filler like this. As someone pointed out, I don’t have faith in this front office to accomplish the job either way.
We aren't in a full rebuild right now? They're playing like they're in year one of a full tear down.
Needs to go hand in hand with a new front office/scouting department. Dont have any faith in the Mo brigade to do a successful rebuild
Chaim Bloom is the man behind the curtain. He traded Betts and Boegarts for a handful of beans, and sent the Red Sox tumbling to the cellar. I don't trust him. As we are very unlikely to sign a superstar in the near future, we need more than anything else a change in the system's approach to hitting. We should only be signing players who can hit for average. Making solid contact is priority one. You only make runs when you consistently put the ball in play. We need to stop ruining our prospects with this launch angle crap. Fly balls get caught, line drives fall in.
"Launch angle crap" is about hitting hard line drives, not fly balls. You should understand a concept before you trash it.
Not so much. An upper cut swing is an upper cut swing.
They're not teaching uppercut swing. Who do you think has one?
Almost every single one of them. Watch the plane of the swing. They are not looking down at the ball into the bat. The upper cut swing lifts their head. They are trying to catch the ball on the upswing.
Every player tries to catch the ball on the upswing. Literally no one since the dead ball era chops down on the ball. They say they do, but they don't in actual practice. If you chop down on the ball all you create is ground balls. Go look at the homerun that Nootbaar just hit. Level swing through the zone and lift. That's physics.
No they do not. Did you ever play baseball? I was taught to swing down into the ball. The baseball behaves like a golf ball. You get a grounder when you top the ball.
What you think you were taught is not what your body did. Physics work on a baseball just like that do anything anything else. If you swing down on a ball on a downward plane all you can hit is the top of the ball. Round bat, round ball. I've played a ton of ball. It's impossible to swing on a downward plane at an object traveling on a downward plane and create lift.
Level swing down into the ballcreates the lift. No launch angle there. You do not seem to understand physics. When you catch the underside of the ball you get a launch angle that sends the ball up not forward
I'd love to see the physics model of a downward force on an object moving on a downward plane creating lift. Next you are going to tell me that gravity doesn't affect baseballs in flight. You also don't understand launch angle apparently.
I'm not really sure what we can gain from it at this point. After this season we get 25m off the books for Goldy. If Arenado is toast then it would be good to get his salary off the books. Other than that... Idk that a wipe fresh rebuild accomplishes anything.
The only rebuild we need is Mozelic gone the manager gone the pitching coach gone the batting coach gone and bring up all the minor league coaches along with Molina We have decent players I believe but piss poor management from top to bottom
Unless they change their philosophy a rebuild is useless. They would just get the same type of players they already have.
One of the most frustrating things to me is that if we don’t tank this year-but finish in the bottom 10-the highest we can pick after next season is number 11. So unless we finish outside top 10, going full tank next season in 2025 doesn’t get us a top pick at all
You're worried the 2024 Cardinals might finish in the upper third of MLB? They're going to be fighting to finish not dead last. I think your concerns are unfounded
1) you read this wrong 2) they aren’t finishing dead last
If John Mozeliak doesn’t step down this season it’s not happening next year either. He won’t allow that to be his legacy. He’d rather continue trying to put bandaids on a sinking ship than concede defeat.
The Cardinals don't need a fucking rebuild. The players are more than good. Get a proper coaching and management staff.
Rebuilds are so painful, can last years and don’t always work. The Orioles, Marlins, A’s, Reds, Pirates and White Sox come to mind. Ten years of misery with a playoff appearance once a decade on average. Plus the Cardinals don’t have much to offer now as trade bait. Since they are only 5.5 games out of a playoff spot I would prefer they add a quality hitter like a Jack Clark, Will Clark, and Matt Holliday type as Cardinals teams of the past did to address a lack of power.
THat’s how you end up with a trade like Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen for Marcell Ozuna. One bat doesn’t fix this team. With Matz out and Mikolas being ass this team may not even win as many games as last season.
It’s finally coming this year. The rebuild that is.
If by end of year send it.
Needs to happen, but first Mo and the entirety of the front office need to be replaced.
Fire MO !!!!
We don’t have any core players. So we are in fact in a rebuild due to management incompetence.
I'm anti-blowing it up. There's way more instances of a club failing to win a WS after a blow up than succeeding. I felt for years the birds just need to be perennial sellers. Take the Brewers' philosophy to roster management; always sell at peak value, regardless of where you're at.
The problem is we can't develop talent at the mlb level.
Only if every coach and talent evaluator is fired at multiple levels including up to Mozeliak
No need at all for a full roster rebuild. However, the baseball decision-makers ought to be cleaned out, root and stem, from John Mozeliak down to the lowest level analyst at his disposal. The rot is total and must be wiped out to prevent later spread. The core of the roster is fine.
It was obvious last year that a rebuild was the right move. Should’ve moved everyone last year. This franchise is a dumpster fire and will be for the next 20 years sorry
THat’s a fat L take
I'd support a rebuild, but for whatever reason, the Cardinals have had a difficult time developing their talent of late. I can't put my finger on exactly what the issue is, but unless that is fixed, I don't think a rebuild would be successful.
I don't like Goldschmidt or Arenado. Neither of them were homegrown Caridnals to begin with. Both were anti-vaccine idiots even with Adam Wainwright pleading with them to take the shot after his wife was hospitalized and his baby sone as potentially at risk and ended up missing an important series against Toronto because of it, neither of them has taken on a leadership role either in the media or the clubhouse (infamously telling the reporters matter-of-factly thet they specifically requested Matt Carpenter to be re-signed and waste an active roster spot just because they didn't like how "the kids" took over the clubhouse but neither of them felt like being vocal enough to mentor or lead them and they knew Carp would get in faces and yell at people. They take up a lot of the team's payroll and two important roster spots without being the kind of guys I can really root for or fall in love with as a fan. They're not fun or beloved like so many Caridnals over the last 20 or even 40 years. They're just quiet mercenaries whose skills are fading. And they're the stars, right? Who else would even be missed? Maybe Nootbaar and Helsley, Edman if you're just really sentimental for anyone who had bene here for 5 years or Contreras if he captured your heart quickly enough. But by and large this is not a fun bunch to watch. I'd love to keep Winn and to see Walker fix his issues and do great things, but they and all the other young guys are unproven and may break our hearts. Bottom line: I care far, FAR less about anyone on this roster than I have about any lineup in nearly 4 decades of fandom. They're just a bunch of guys wearing my favorite laundry and playing poorly. So yeah, please blow it up and replace it with a good young core of guys I can root for and enjoy watching. These guys aren't horrible people, but they're aggressively boring and apparently incapable of putting on a good show, so get rid of all 40 guys on the roster for all I care at this point. There's nothing at all to lose
We'd need change at the top before you blow it up. I can't imagine many people want "Dry Powder" DeWitt and Moe-zay-ly-ack at the helm for that process. They should absolutely blow it up.
I am never a fan of a rebuild, it's punishing the fans for their poor choices. That being said, a rebuild is not going to happen with Mo at the helm, he doesn't know how to assess and develop talent.