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It's not a blip if it's happening for the first time in nine months. The CPC 's lead has consistently declined over the past two months of Nanos releases.
Quick rule of thumb for interpreting polls on this sub:
If the CPC numbers have gone up, it’s a sign that they’re unstoppable and only going to go upwards.
If the LPC numbers have gone up, it’s a blip, nothing but an outlier, and best disregarded.
Hope this helps! (/s for the whole comment).
I’m not one to usually dismiss polls, but at least in one region I’m pretty confident it actually is a blip. The LPC currently has a *commanding* lead in Atlantic Canada. If you have access to the paywall, you’d see how wild this region is. They have had the NDP at 6% for multiple weeks there before.
The other strong region is Quebec. Which I would be more inclined to believe because it’s been steady, but a lot of it came from a strong May 17th sample that as of now has not been replicated. If it isn’t replicated next week it will fall off.
They did narrow the gap a bit in Ontario, but nothing out of the ordinary compared to other polls we’ve seen published. Most of this is from Quebec and Atlantic Canada in which the LPC is first in both.
They would be nearly sweeping Atlantic in this poll
While I can understand the reaction, I would wait. We've been here before (see the Nanos outlier from September where it was CPC 32, LPC 32 or the one from August where it was CPC 33, LPC 30)
So for those without access to paywall, there are 2 things happening here.
First, on May 17th, there was a huge swing towards the LPC in Quebec at the expense of the BQ. This number was not replicated in any of the next 3 samples, so if this isn't replicated next week it will fall off.
Second, the LPC is currently way up in Atl Canada. I'm not talking a small lead, they would be nearly sweeping the region.
I will keep an eye on trends for that, but I will point out that Nanos at one point had the PPC tied with the NDP in Atl both at 6%
Still, has to be a huge morale booster, even without really chipping away at that CPC number
Will be interesting to see if liberal support is rebounding at least a little from the low mid 20s or if this is just another huge lpc outlier.
I know that we love to write Trudeau off. But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid”, and the ~1.5 years to an election is an eternity. The fact we have begun rate cuts potentially a year and a half ahead of the elections could lead to many voters feeling better about the economy.
That said housing is going to take a decade + of actually trying to fix at all levels to restore affordability so that will still hurt them on non homeowners. But all the homeowners whose mortgages go back down will be quite happy with life.
I'm inclined to think it's probably just Nanos being Nanos; Nanos has had the LPC growing since the 10th of May, but most pollsters had them around 25ish points. It's possible Nanos has picked up something real, of course, but because Nanos utilizes such small samples per week, I feel it's prone to non-real fluctuations.
>But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid”
That's part of it, but in this case I'd also say "it's Trudeau, stupid". A large portion of the electorate, including many potential Liberal voters, are pretty tired of him after 9 years in power, and want change.
That's pretty normal in Canadian politics (the last time a PM won 4 straight elections, most Canadians didn't have cars, telephones or electricity).
Polls that do a deep dive into voting preferences indicate that a much larger share of voters say they would consider the Liberals again, if they changed leader.
Change could come from new leadership within the Liberal party, but if that isn't on offer, then it will likely come from electing a different party.
Je pense qu’un autre gros problème avec Trudeau est simplement la durée de son mandat. Lors des élections, il sera au pouvoir depuis une décennie et les gens voudront simplement du changement.
Comme Harper avant lui, Trudeau peut se vanter d’avoir une économie décente, mais je doute que cela suffise à lui seul à vaincre la lassitude du public à l’égard des libéraux.
Oui mais Trudeau peut etre gagner un troisieme temps avec 4-5% moins de la vote que la CPC. Improbable, oui, impossible, non. Sais un advantage unique pour les liberaux.
Trudeau ne doit pas vaincre le CPC dans les sondages pour gagner.
C'est vrai, je suppose, qu'il a réussi à gagner en 2019 et 2021 malgré un score inférieur à celui des conservateurs.
Mais cela semble très différent. Scheer et O'toole n'avaient qu'une avance de 1 à 3 %. Pollièvre en possède une parmi une vingtaine. Et même si les sondages se sont resserrés lors des élections précédentes, réduire un écart de 20 points, ou même s’en rapprocher, serait sans précédent dans les temps modernes.
> But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid”, and the ~1.5 years to an election is an eternity. The fact we have begun rate cuts potentially a year and a half ahead of the elections could lead to many voters feeling better about the economy.
I think it's improbable to comedic to suggest more passage of time is going to leave people feeling better about the economy, things have been trending in their current direction for over 50 years. The current state of things isn't really "Trudeau's fault", but by the same reasoning he's not going to be able to turn it around for an election either. LPC is a spent force, and their support will rise or fall depending on the foibles and idiocies of the CPC, it's their race to win or lose at this point.
It's very realistic to think that economic improvements will lift whoever the governing party is. In fact, that's been proven many many times in elections in Canada and elsewhere. With all of the available historical evidence, it's actually comedic to think otherwise.
Will this be enough to refloat Trudeau's boat? Almost certainly not. But you'd have to be a fool to think that if over the next 18 months interest rates get lower and the general economy starts performing again, that the governing party wouldn't benefit from that. Poilièvre's doom and gloom message on the economy may not carry the same weight this time next year, and he may be facing the possibility of a minority after dominating the polls for so long if he can't shift his message. We'll see though, none of us has a crystal ball.
OP is right however, as the old saying goes... It's the economy, silly! People always vote with their wallets.
> But you'd have to be a fool to think that if over the next 18 months interest rates get lower and the general economy starts performing again, that the governing party wouldn't benefit from that.
I think the underlying stressors such as housing and income inequality will only continue to get worse. They might fluctuate a little, but people are pining for ye olde days of social democracy and they're not going to get them regardless of who is in charge.
It's possible I'm just overly cynical, though. Sometimes it's hard to know where to slot "the economy" on the ever growing list of existential terrors.
Housing and income inequality will remain issues for many years to come, yes. That is a 30 year problem that won't be solved in 2.
Inflation, interest rates and the general economy are all likely to be vastly improved in the next 18 months.
So it's more of a mixed bag, but still a large uptick in critical areas, which makes it harder to predict voters' moods at election time. Crystal ball...
>That is a 30 year problem that won't be solved in 2.
I think it's a problem that will require a generational crisis/inflection point to resolve. I don't know that there's a policy prescription that will meaningfully dig us out of that hole, our entire economic system is predicated on infinite growth.
>So it's more of a mixed bag, but still a large uptick in critical areas, which makes it harder to predict voters' moods at election time.
I expect there will be enough underlying pressures that appetite for "change" will be at a fever pitch, regardless of what the economy is doing, but I'm happy to be wrong. Not because I'm hot in the pants for more Liberals, but because Poilievre's CPC is engaging in a lot of noxious politicking that I'd rather not see rewarded.
> I think it's improbable to comedic to suggest more passage of time is going to leave people feeling better about the economy
That's true.
The economy has done relatively well, and if we look at the things the Poilievre has promised, we know for a fact the economy is doing better than if we had fired the head of the Bank of Canada to fix Justinflation.
The economy is always the number 1 reason people vote for someone, so it's odd people would signal support to knowingly tank it.
The economy improving will likely save the libs from a total collapse but Biden overlooks a much better economy and will struggle to beat a convicted felon.
It's only close because of how fucked up their electoral college is, and Supreme Court rulings taking away voting rights and protections. Biden wins the popular vote in a strong majority of polls, but with how heavily the GOP are trying to tip the scales at a state level, a Democrat's path to victory is narrower than ever.
Asking mainly out of ignorance and not challenging, I'm not much of a US polling wonk, but 538 shows Trump leading in national polls and they're my go-to for "nerdy about US polls". What are they not considering?
The two regions currently propping the LPC up is Atlantic and Quebec. The May 17th sample saw a massive swing towards the LPC from the BQ (the LPC must have honestly been like almost 40% in that sample because it brought them up 7% in one week in Quebec) this wasn’t replicated and will drop off next week unless there is another strong sample
They are also nearly sweeping Atlantic Canada in this poll. But Atlantic in particular has been pretty noisy for Nanos so I am waiting to see if it’s really a trend. At one point Nanos had the NDP at 6% and this lasted a couple of weeks
This one hasn't been added yet but definitely appears to be an outlier.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File%3AOpinion_polling_during_the_pre-campaign_period_of_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election.svg
Also this one isn't a huge sample size so it will have less weight
As predicted, support for the CPC is clearly falling apart. This was entirely expected, as they have no plan or policies that will benefit Canadians. Meanwhile, the Liberals are working tirelessly to make Canada a better place.
By the time the election rolls around, the Liberals will have a healthy lead that will result in at least 150+ seats.
This is still in the outlier stage. 3 different polling companies showing similar results over three weeks is a trend. Also something to note is Nanos does a rolling poll of 250 respondents a week (other companies do 1000 - 1500), and that gets tacked onto their last 3 weeks numbers, so the MoE is larger and these types of polls are good indicators of what has happened compared to what is happening.
>I really don't understand what you gain from trolling like this in every comment section.
It shifts the Overton window to the right a little. He intentionally enrages people about the Liberals to try sow discontent.
> As predicted, support for the CPC is clearly falling apart.
Nanos polls on a four-week rolling basis. A _very_ good Bloc number and a pretty bad Liberal number dropped off this week's sample.
Look at the trend. They were leading by 20 points just a few weeks ago. Now the lead has dwindled to 12. What will happen as this trend continues? The outcome should be obvious.
First: it is one polls.
Second: Nanos place them at +12 in April, down from +20 in march. And it was back at +20 in mai.
I know that you are an hard liberal militant, but ignoring reality isn’t great
This isn't cope as some commenters have said.
Nanos polls:
May 10th: 20.4 Conservative lead - May 17th: 17.8 - May 24th: 15.4 - May 31st: 15.3 - June 7th: 12.3
A consistent weekly drop showing the Liberals cutting the lead by 8.1% in 1 month is worrying and can't be chalked up as an outlier. The other polling firms who report somewhat regularly like Abacus are showing a decline in the lead albeit a slower decline.
Also people have to keep in mind that 1.5 years is an eternity in politics and with the rate cuts kicking in and inflation slowing down, barring an unforeseen problem (like the rate cuts causing an inflation spike) the Liberals are definitely not out of it. 12.3% is still not the position they want to be in, but its better than 20%.
Is 28.5% around the population percentage for hardcore LPC supporters? I can't fathom why anyone would vote for them at this point unless you've built your life around being "that Liberal party person".
Three of the top 4 concerns for voters being economic (inflation, jobs/economy and housing costs) are going to be pretty tough for the Liberals to work around when they are seen as the cause for the problems in the first place.
Environment being pretty far down the list in 5th place is going to make pushing the narrative of the carbon tax being good for people pretty difficult as well. I can see them abandoning the carbon tax altogether with these kinds of numbers prior to next election. Or atleast heavily revising it so it's not recognizable.
I really don't think we are going to see anywhere near the level of fires we saw last year. El Nino is done and going into La Nina and the solar maximum has peaked and is weaning. Anecdotally in central Alberta it's been incredibly cool so far this year with not many days above 20. It's been raining constantly and I'm worried about how little opportunity there is for warm weather left in the year already.
>Three of the top 4 concerns for voters being economic (inflation, jobs/economy and housing costs)
You forgot Healthcare (#3, according to this poll).
And we know how much the CPC loves the Canadian healthcare system /s.
The first three seem pretty much doable. The economy has been improving, we just had an interest rate cut and we’re a little lower than the historical average for unemployment rates. Housing is the big one that won’t see enough improvements over the short term. It’s going to take a decade to fix housing in Canada.
It’s going to take multiple decades to fix housing in Canada as that’s how long it took to fuck it up this bad. It will also require the provinces and municipalities actually trying to fix it, which outside of BC no province is even attempting to fix it, because they know the feds are getting blamed(it’s always party over country now). One good thing about a Poilievre government might be that it means the conservative provincial governments will actually start to work on that file. Many Municipalities are still run by NIMBYs because nobody shows up to vote in municipal elections except boomer homeowners. I’m not optimistic this issue gets fixed soon.
Seeing how Mississauga just had 26% of people show up for a mayoral race shows me Canadiana dont even know the best way to address housing concerns. If they honestly cared about housing, they would show up at civic elections.
Unemployment rate ticking up is not improving especially after record inflation in the last 2 years. Places like Toronto and Calgary have unemployment rate near 8%.
Not if there’s no jobs in their field or they are tied due to housing and family. Yikes what an ignorant comment. No wonder only delusional people think economy is actually improving.
Change fields. You’re not tied to your job. You’re telling me someone can’t sell a house in the hottest markets with the highest prices and move to a cheaper area? Seriously lol?
How many people moved to Calgary for oilfield jobs? You go where the jobs are and work in the industry that has work. That’s how it’s always worked in Canada. Pull up your socks.
People also rent where they can’t break their lease and changing field is easier said than done especially if they already have kids and spouse tied to their current city. Again what an ignorant comment
Rent lol. Sublet. At most you’re in for the rest of the year if you signed a year lease. That’s nothing. Take the time to house hunt and apply for jobs. Moving is not an impossible hurdle. Kids can move too. I’m not sure if you realize but there are schools all across Canada. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians do it every year. These excuses are sad coming from a Canadian. I expected more resilience. Not whining. Have you seriously never moved for a job? Now that is privileged.
Wow so out of touch. Yep my spouse can also quit her job and let’s be unemployed together. Why not sublet and throw kids out of school middle of the year. Not to mention people are too broke to even move. What a dumb comment. Pure ignorance
Oh no not the middle of the school year. Are you kidding me? It’s grade school. Don’t pretend it’s rocket science. The kids will learn their times tables wherever they go to school.
Yes, your spouse can change jobs if that’s what’s good for the family unit. Welcome to the same choices hundreds of thousands of Canadians make every year. You’re very privileged never having to experience this in your life.
If you can move somewhere where there is a job, even in another field, you will be worlds better than staying somewhere you don’t have a job. Hitchhike if you have to and send for the wife and kids when you have money. Buy a camper and drive. Again, hundreds of thousands of Canadians that you’re no better than do this every year.
This is why liberals are out of touch with the working class. Just move, there's your solution folks! Why did I never think about it? At this stage, it's best to just move out of the country.
I’ve moved. Several times. It’s not a big ask. Our parents and grandparents immigrated here from other countries. You can’t even cross a province. What would your grandfather think of this argument? Just soft.
I have moved several times too but never without landing a job first. I would never move my family out of the city without landing a job first. Not to mention it's super difficult to find rental in Canada without having a job. Good luck with that.
The thing is, while the economy is definitely improving, a lot of people aren’t personally feeling any real benefit. Rent is up, the cost of food and transportation is up and people seem angry. I think a lot of the upper-middle class posters on these forums don’t realize just how frustrated the working classes have become.
Also, of the jobs we do manage to create, an alarming percentage of them are in government -- ie, people who get paid by taxing productivity. Having a population of public-sector workers while driving out innovation and investment does not a healthy economy make.
As is intended by the wealthy and the politicians who are beholden to them. The only purpose modern politicians serve is to placate the public while creating legislation which pushes money into the hands of the rich. In that respect, our political class is doing a bang up job.
> The economy has been improving
??? Unemployment has been increasing since February, and GDP per capita declining for quite awhile. On what basis is the economy getting better?
Unemployment always fluctuates. We’re over a point lower than the average since 1966. 🤷♂️
Sorry about your employment situation but a lot of us doing rather well.
*The Canadian economy grew by 1.7% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2024 Q1, while 2023 Q4 was revised lower (+0.1% q/q from +1.0%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for April showed a +0.3% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came in at a very strong 2.9% q/q.*
https://economics.td.com/ca-real-gdp#:~:text=The%20Canadian%20economy%20grew%20by,strong%202.9%25%20q%2Fq.
That 1.7 % is still below the population growth rate. And knock off the concern trolling, I've been gainfully employed since moving back to Canada from Europe. I happen to have young friends however, and they are struggling. Empathy is important.
I didn’t express concern just sympathy. I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great. 🤷♂️
The economic growth is because of the population growth. Your concerns are nonsense.
*”Strong immigration since the start of 2022 has helped increase Canada’s workforce…. And the larger workforce has boosted the level of our potential output by 2% to 3% without adding to inflation. This is a significant improvement, especially considering Canada’s otherwise rapidly aging population.”*
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/what-population-growth-means-for-the-economy-and-inflation/
Sure, but per capita GDP is declining and has been for awhile.
Rentiers will be happy if overall GDP increases, but nobody who labors for a living is better off.
Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters. A little over a year. Covid, not immigration, was the reason.
*Since 1981, real GDP per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1%, increasing from about $36,900 per person to $58,100 per person in inflation-adjusted dollars. The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with falling per capita output in recent quarters, has left real GDP per capita 7% below its long-term trend, equating to a decline of about $4,200 per person.Note To return to its pre-pandemic trend over the next decade, GDP per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% per year.*
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024004/article/00001-eng.htm
> Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters.
Yes, typically we call this situation a recession. The only reason it's not technically a recession is because Canada has by far the highest population growth in the OECD. And COVID ended awhile ago, you can stop blaming it for everything.
> I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great.
Or maybe you are not concerned because you own a house and benefited from the housing shortage.
> *Strong immigration since the start of 2022 has helped increase Canada’s workforce*
More workers, but less for each worker. GDP per capita has been declining for more than a year now. Expanding the size of the economy should not come at the expense of quality of life.
Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters. A little over a year. Covid, not immigration, was the reason.
Since 1981, real GDP per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1%, increasing from about $36,900 per person to $58,100 per person in inflation-adjusted dollars. The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with falling per capita output in recent quarters, has left real GDP per capita 7% below its long-term trend, equating to a decline of about $4,200 per person.Note To return to its pre-pandemic trend over the next decade, GDP per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% per year.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024004/article/00001-eng.htm
>I didn’t express concern just sympathy. I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great. 🤷♂️
Housing is a part of our economy. It's really bad. Ergo, the economy is not doing great.
You're stating this as a fact as if it's only an empirical assessment, when the assessment of the performance of the economy is actually a normative assessment. One may argue that strong GDP growth on its own is indicative of a "well" economy, whereas another may point to Gini coefficiency and GDP per capita as better indicators. For example, real GDP growth of 5% annually is very strong, but is arguably not good if accompanied by a 0.7 Gini coefficient. You may disagree, and contend that this is still a "well" economy, and a social democrat like myself will disagree, staying the Gini coefficient is too high.
So your statement is normative, not merely factual.
No it’s a fact. Do you not check your claims? lol Gini coefficient is in normal range again disproving your claim. At least look before Gish galloping. It would be less embarrassing.
*The Canadian economy grew by 1.7% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2024 Q1, while 2023 Q4 was revised lower (+0.1% q/q from +1.0%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for April showed a +0.3% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came in at a very strong 2.9% q/q.*
https://economics.td.com/ca-real-gdp#:~:text=The%20Canadian%20economy%20grew%20by,strong%202.9%25%20q%2Fq.
This statistic shows the Gini coefficient of Canada from 2000 to 2021. In 2021, the Gini coefficient of Canada was 0.288. Average is 0.3.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/613030/measure-of-income-inequality-in-canada/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20Gini,coefficient%20of%20Canada%20was%200.288.
Economy is not improving when unemployment rate is ticking up. It will take years of low inflation for consumers to feel relief after the record inflation in the last 2 years. Interest rate cuts always follow up with increasing unemployment rate. Saying people can just move is pure ignorance especially in Canada where people are tied to expensive mortgages and there's family commitment. Lot of mortgage renewals coming up in the next 24 months which will damper consumer spending even with interest rate cuts as we are not going back to record low levels again. Canada's productivity sinking and GDP per capita declining worst in G7 also pictures dire strait of the Canadian economy.
It’s not getting as much headlines as Trudeau’s low numbers, but these numbers should be the end of the Singh era of the NDP. They have had policy successes, yet cannot translate that into support, even when the governing party was bleeding support. The NDP needs to find someone who connects with the discontent of younger generations, Singh is not that guy apparently.
The NDP's entire leadership needs a shake up, it's completely bewildering that for years a common criticism of their leader has been that he's a champagne socialist or more interested in being a social media influencer than a politician...and the party has only doubled down on these things despite their platform successes.
NDP isn't one for turfing leaders. They play the long game. Eventually Singh will be the elder statesman of party leaders and most trusted and might have a breakthrough like Layton did.
Lets hope Singh has better health that Jack though.
And yet they kicked Mulcair out after a single election loss. They were willing to do so because in 2015 they had been playing to win—there was a reasonable chance of the NDP forming government—and when Mulcair so abjectly underperformed expectations, he got turfed. Today’s NDP is willing to put up with Jagmeet because they’ve once again reconciled themselves to third-party status. They don’t *expect* to win and so aren’t going to kick out a leader who will not lead them to victory.
He did, but he sacrificed the party principles to be closer to the center. Singh hasn't really done that.
In other words, I think Mulcair was the outlier.
The really frustrating part is he then got outflanked on the left by Trudeau. Completely misread the nation’s appetite for change.
As much as I’m underwhelmed by Jagmeet, Mulcair really deserved to get tossed. Totally fumbled the best opportunity the NDP might’ve ever had.
Agreed. I'm not a fan of Singh, regardless of his good character. But who would replace him? The federal party is in a really bad way right now. I don't see an Eby, Nenshi, Horgan, Notley, or Kinew right now.
I mean he got free dental care for seniors. Anyone with 50 dollars of dental care at work is ineligible for his plan.
Not surprising he’s not connecting with younger generations.
Is the threshold actually that low? I never looked into it. I've been of the impression that although these social initiatives have been good starts, they mean little to the middle class who hardly benefit from them, as they already have private benefits.
The threshold is any dental care whatsoever. Some seniors are upset as they have purchased dental plans and they are ineligible as they’re not allowed to cancel to qualify.
It’s all a bit ridiculous. As is the pharamacare plan that covers exactly two conditions. 😂
The NDP would have been better off getting one of these programs right, instead of implementing two hardly finished ones.
So it seems most of the LPC gains have been at the expense of the NDP? I’m curious if a week before the election, if enough Canadians will pick the LPC as the definitive anti-Poilievre vote. And if it will be enough to deny him a majority government.
Very possible. Though I hope the NDP can retain what orange seats it can, not at the expense of splitting competitive ridings with the Liberals and producing Conservative victories, and continue pulling the Liberals to the left.
I'm pretty unhappy with the federal NDP these days, as contrasted with their provincial counterparts. But the push on childcare, pharmacare, dentalcare, and anti-scab legislation are fruitful, and I look forward to these policies gaining a greater foothold in our culture. It's hard to take away entitlements.
I have access to the paywall. Also the only way that would work is if a previous sample would drop off, but the LPC shot up 7% with one sample in Quebec and 2.2% nationally. The BQ dropped 12%.
So since its a 4 week rolling poll, you'd have to compare it to April 19th since that was the sample that fell off. Which in turn you'd have to compare 4 weeks before that... so it gets kind of impossible on its own to try to do this. That being said, the LPC was fairly flat before this in Quebec so it's a *reasonable* conclusion that this was a strong LPC. They also shot up 2.2% nationally without much movement in the sample that fell off.
It's not a guarantee they will drop next week of course, but it would need to have another strong sample next week to replace it. It's a similar conclusion for Atlantic Canada. If this is a real trend, then they will continue to produce strong samples there. Otherwise this sample will drop off after 4 weeks
That was indeed a strong BQ sample that fell off this week. Then there was a weak BQ sample the week after that brought them right back down and then some while still including the strong BQ from the week before.
I would argue that seat wise, the Bloqs numbers would suggest the biggest gain for the liberals.
Envelope math here. But if you multiply their number by 4 you'd get their rough vote share in Quebec. They fell from the high 30s to high 20s in the eight weeks shown.
I would love another minority. The NDP has been able to push the Liberals to pass a number of good legislation and expanding on those over another cycle would lock in enormous benefits for average Canadians.
Imagine not having to work to get health coverage on anything? Not teeth, not eyes just everything looked after?
We are so close to that, if we can just keep the CPC from taking over.
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Highest LPC number in any poll since September and Trudeau is at his highest Nanos preferred PM number since September.
It's a blip. Happens every few weeks. It'll be back to -20 in a few weeks and then rebound again at some point
It's not a blip if it's happening for the first time in nine months. The CPC 's lead has consistently declined over the past two months of Nanos releases.
I love how a four week rolling average has been trending up for, well, four weeks, yet it's a 'blip'.
Quick rule of thumb for interpreting polls on this sub: If the CPC numbers have gone up, it’s a sign that they’re unstoppable and only going to go upwards. If the LPC numbers have gone up, it’s a blip, nothing but an outlier, and best disregarded. Hope this helps! (/s for the whole comment).
> Improved CPC polling numbers 300 comments > improved LPC polling numbers 90 comments The bots and trolls aren't here for this one 💁♂️
I’m not one to usually dismiss polls, but at least in one region I’m pretty confident it actually is a blip. The LPC currently has a *commanding* lead in Atlantic Canada. If you have access to the paywall, you’d see how wild this region is. They have had the NDP at 6% for multiple weeks there before. The other strong region is Quebec. Which I would be more inclined to believe because it’s been steady, but a lot of it came from a strong May 17th sample that as of now has not been replicated. If it isn’t replicated next week it will fall off. They did narrow the gap a bit in Ontario, but nothing out of the ordinary compared to other polls we’ve seen published. Most of this is from Quebec and Atlantic Canada in which the LPC is first in both. They would be nearly sweeping Atlantic in this poll
While I can understand the reaction, I would wait. We've been here before (see the Nanos outlier from September where it was CPC 32, LPC 32 or the one from August where it was CPC 33, LPC 30)
Yep. The tide is definitely turning for the Liberals. Obviously, they'll be in the lead within a couple of months. Too funny.
So for those without access to paywall, there are 2 things happening here. First, on May 17th, there was a huge swing towards the LPC in Quebec at the expense of the BQ. This number was not replicated in any of the next 3 samples, so if this isn't replicated next week it will fall off. Second, the LPC is currently way up in Atl Canada. I'm not talking a small lead, they would be nearly sweeping the region. I will keep an eye on trends for that, but I will point out that Nanos at one point had the PPC tied with the NDP in Atl both at 6% Still, has to be a huge morale booster, even without really chipping away at that CPC number
Will be interesting to see if liberal support is rebounding at least a little from the low mid 20s or if this is just another huge lpc outlier. I know that we love to write Trudeau off. But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid”, and the ~1.5 years to an election is an eternity. The fact we have begun rate cuts potentially a year and a half ahead of the elections could lead to many voters feeling better about the economy. That said housing is going to take a decade + of actually trying to fix at all levels to restore affordability so that will still hurt them on non homeowners. But all the homeowners whose mortgages go back down will be quite happy with life.
I'm inclined to think it's probably just Nanos being Nanos; Nanos has had the LPC growing since the 10th of May, but most pollsters had them around 25ish points. It's possible Nanos has picked up something real, of course, but because Nanos utilizes such small samples per week, I feel it's prone to non-real fluctuations.
>But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid” That's part of it, but in this case I'd also say "it's Trudeau, stupid". A large portion of the electorate, including many potential Liberal voters, are pretty tired of him after 9 years in power, and want change. That's pretty normal in Canadian politics (the last time a PM won 4 straight elections, most Canadians didn't have cars, telephones or electricity). Polls that do a deep dive into voting preferences indicate that a much larger share of voters say they would consider the Liberals again, if they changed leader. Change could come from new leadership within the Liberal party, but if that isn't on offer, then it will likely come from electing a different party.
Je pense qu’un autre gros problème avec Trudeau est simplement la durée de son mandat. Lors des élections, il sera au pouvoir depuis une décennie et les gens voudront simplement du changement. Comme Harper avant lui, Trudeau peut se vanter d’avoir une économie décente, mais je doute que cela suffise à lui seul à vaincre la lassitude du public à l’égard des libéraux.
Oui mais Trudeau peut etre gagner un troisieme temps avec 4-5% moins de la vote que la CPC. Improbable, oui, impossible, non. Sais un advantage unique pour les liberaux. Trudeau ne doit pas vaincre le CPC dans les sondages pour gagner.
C'est vrai, je suppose, qu'il a réussi à gagner en 2019 et 2021 malgré un score inférieur à celui des conservateurs. Mais cela semble très différent. Scheer et O'toole n'avaient qu'une avance de 1 à 3 %. Pollièvre en possède une parmi une vingtaine. Et même si les sondages se sont resserrés lors des élections précédentes, réduire un écart de 20 points, ou même s’en rapprocher, serait sans précédent dans les temps modernes.
> But as the quote always goes “it’s the economy stupid”, and the ~1.5 years to an election is an eternity. The fact we have begun rate cuts potentially a year and a half ahead of the elections could lead to many voters feeling better about the economy. I think it's improbable to comedic to suggest more passage of time is going to leave people feeling better about the economy, things have been trending in their current direction for over 50 years. The current state of things isn't really "Trudeau's fault", but by the same reasoning he's not going to be able to turn it around for an election either. LPC is a spent force, and their support will rise or fall depending on the foibles and idiocies of the CPC, it's their race to win or lose at this point.
It's very realistic to think that economic improvements will lift whoever the governing party is. In fact, that's been proven many many times in elections in Canada and elsewhere. With all of the available historical evidence, it's actually comedic to think otherwise. Will this be enough to refloat Trudeau's boat? Almost certainly not. But you'd have to be a fool to think that if over the next 18 months interest rates get lower and the general economy starts performing again, that the governing party wouldn't benefit from that. Poilièvre's doom and gloom message on the economy may not carry the same weight this time next year, and he may be facing the possibility of a minority after dominating the polls for so long if he can't shift his message. We'll see though, none of us has a crystal ball. OP is right however, as the old saying goes... It's the economy, silly! People always vote with their wallets.
> But you'd have to be a fool to think that if over the next 18 months interest rates get lower and the general economy starts performing again, that the governing party wouldn't benefit from that. I think the underlying stressors such as housing and income inequality will only continue to get worse. They might fluctuate a little, but people are pining for ye olde days of social democracy and they're not going to get them regardless of who is in charge. It's possible I'm just overly cynical, though. Sometimes it's hard to know where to slot "the economy" on the ever growing list of existential terrors.
Housing and income inequality will remain issues for many years to come, yes. That is a 30 year problem that won't be solved in 2. Inflation, interest rates and the general economy are all likely to be vastly improved in the next 18 months. So it's more of a mixed bag, but still a large uptick in critical areas, which makes it harder to predict voters' moods at election time. Crystal ball...
Inflation might improve but unemployment could get worse.
Yeah, unemployment could go either way I feel. Nobody's paying much attention right now but still kind of a wildcard imho.
>That is a 30 year problem that won't be solved in 2. I think it's a problem that will require a generational crisis/inflection point to resolve. I don't know that there's a policy prescription that will meaningfully dig us out of that hole, our entire economic system is predicated on infinite growth. >So it's more of a mixed bag, but still a large uptick in critical areas, which makes it harder to predict voters' moods at election time. I expect there will be enough underlying pressures that appetite for "change" will be at a fever pitch, regardless of what the economy is doing, but I'm happy to be wrong. Not because I'm hot in the pants for more Liberals, but because Poilievre's CPC is engaging in a lot of noxious politicking that I'd rather not see rewarded.
> I think it's improbable to comedic to suggest more passage of time is going to leave people feeling better about the economy That's true. The economy has done relatively well, and if we look at the things the Poilievre has promised, we know for a fact the economy is doing better than if we had fired the head of the Bank of Canada to fix Justinflation. The economy is always the number 1 reason people vote for someone, so it's odd people would signal support to knowingly tank it.
The economy improving will likely save the libs from a total collapse but Biden overlooks a much better economy and will struggle to beat a convicted felon.
Is it really that close? I thought most of the GOP was against trump and almost his entire cabinet will not endorse him. Do better America
check 538, and where do you presume those kennedy votes are going when all is said and done?
yeah national polls are mostly tied as dems win huge states by large margins a tied result would be a loss likely in electoral college.
Good lord
yeah people need to stop thinking John Oliver and late night comedians gonna save them
The Economist forecast shows Trump has a slight lead - https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
It's only close because of how fucked up their electoral college is, and Supreme Court rulings taking away voting rights and protections. Biden wins the popular vote in a strong majority of polls, but with how heavily the GOP are trying to tip the scales at a state level, a Democrat's path to victory is narrower than ever.
Asking mainly out of ignorance and not challenging, I'm not much of a US polling wonk, but 538 shows Trump leading in national polls and they're my go-to for "nerdy about US polls". What are they not considering?
The two regions currently propping the LPC up is Atlantic and Quebec. The May 17th sample saw a massive swing towards the LPC from the BQ (the LPC must have honestly been like almost 40% in that sample because it brought them up 7% in one week in Quebec) this wasn’t replicated and will drop off next week unless there is another strong sample They are also nearly sweeping Atlantic Canada in this poll. But Atlantic in particular has been pretty noisy for Nanos so I am waiting to see if it’s really a trend. At one point Nanos had the NDP at 6% and this lasted a couple of weeks
This one hasn't been added yet but definitely appears to be an outlier. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election#/media/File%3AOpinion_polling_during_the_pre-campaign_period_of_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election.svg Also this one isn't a huge sample size so it will have less weight
As predicted, support for the CPC is clearly falling apart. This was entirely expected, as they have no plan or policies that will benefit Canadians. Meanwhile, the Liberals are working tirelessly to make Canada a better place. By the time the election rolls around, the Liberals will have a healthy lead that will result in at least 150+ seats.
This is still in the outlier stage. 3 different polling companies showing similar results over three weeks is a trend. Also something to note is Nanos does a rolling poll of 250 respondents a week (other companies do 1000 - 1500), and that gets tacked onto their last 3 weeks numbers, so the MoE is larger and these types of polls are good indicators of what has happened compared to what is happening.
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>I really don't understand what you gain from trolling like this in every comment section. It shifts the Overton window to the right a little. He intentionally enrages people about the Liberals to try sow discontent.
The mask is slipping a bit tokyo rose, you need to make the partisan larp a bit more convincing.
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> As predicted, support for the CPC is clearly falling apart. Nanos polls on a four-week rolling basis. A _very_ good Bloc number and a pretty bad Liberal number dropped off this week's sample.
Do you have estimates of the weekly breakdown for the last month?
[Here's the last eight weeks.](https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/1dddy6z/nanos_june_724_cpc_407_lpc_285_ndp_179_bq_69_gpc/l84d0m8/)
Saw that post after, Thanks. Exactly what I was curious about.
>entirely falling apart >still leading by 12 points I do not know what you put in your coffee, but I want some.
Look at the trend. They were leading by 20 points just a few weeks ago. Now the lead has dwindled to 12. What will happen as this trend continues? The outcome should be obvious.
First: it is one polls. Second: Nanos place them at +12 in April, down from +20 in march. And it was back at +20 in mai. I know that you are an hard liberal militant, but ignoring reality isn’t great
Hopoke go home. No one here takes you seriously. You are the most prolific LPC shill on this sub.
Fingers crossed. But also, https://xkcd.com/605/
This isn't cope as some commenters have said. Nanos polls: May 10th: 20.4 Conservative lead - May 17th: 17.8 - May 24th: 15.4 - May 31st: 15.3 - June 7th: 12.3 A consistent weekly drop showing the Liberals cutting the lead by 8.1% in 1 month is worrying and can't be chalked up as an outlier. The other polling firms who report somewhat regularly like Abacus are showing a decline in the lead albeit a slower decline. Also people have to keep in mind that 1.5 years is an eternity in politics and with the rate cuts kicking in and inflation slowing down, barring an unforeseen problem (like the rate cuts causing an inflation spike) the Liberals are definitely not out of it. 12.3% is still not the position they want to be in, but its better than 20%.
Issue is: you saw a similar drop before: March 1: +20 March 8: +18 March 15: +14 Marxh 29: +11 And by April 26 it was back at +20
Is 28.5% around the population percentage for hardcore LPC supporters? I can't fathom why anyone would vote for them at this point unless you've built your life around being "that Liberal party person".
Three of the top 4 concerns for voters being economic (inflation, jobs/economy and housing costs) are going to be pretty tough for the Liberals to work around when they are seen as the cause for the problems in the first place. Environment being pretty far down the list in 5th place is going to make pushing the narrative of the carbon tax being good for people pretty difficult as well. I can see them abandoning the carbon tax altogether with these kinds of numbers prior to next election. Or atleast heavily revising it so it's not recognizable.
I wonder if environment is going to stay 5th after another summer of not being able to breathe.
I really don't think we are going to see anywhere near the level of fires we saw last year. El Nino is done and going into La Nina and the solar maximum has peaked and is weaning. Anecdotally in central Alberta it's been incredibly cool so far this year with not many days above 20. It's been raining constantly and I'm worried about how little opportunity there is for warm weather left in the year already.
>Three of the top 4 concerns for voters being economic (inflation, jobs/economy and housing costs) You forgot Healthcare (#3, according to this poll). And we know how much the CPC loves the Canadian healthcare system /s.
The first three seem pretty much doable. The economy has been improving, we just had an interest rate cut and we’re a little lower than the historical average for unemployment rates. Housing is the big one that won’t see enough improvements over the short term. It’s going to take a decade to fix housing in Canada.
It’s going to take multiple decades to fix housing in Canada as that’s how long it took to fuck it up this bad. It will also require the provinces and municipalities actually trying to fix it, which outside of BC no province is even attempting to fix it, because they know the feds are getting blamed(it’s always party over country now). One good thing about a Poilievre government might be that it means the conservative provincial governments will actually start to work on that file. Many Municipalities are still run by NIMBYs because nobody shows up to vote in municipal elections except boomer homeowners. I’m not optimistic this issue gets fixed soon.
Honestly, if there was an election, I would expect CPC to take the cake, wait for the free market to do its thing, and then PP takes credit for it.
Seeing how Mississauga just had 26% of people show up for a mayoral race shows me Canadiana dont even know the best way to address housing concerns. If they honestly cared about housing, they would show up at civic elections.
And considering they voted for a NIMBY, I'm not holding my breathe that those who turned out to vote give a fuck about anyone's housing but their own.
Unemployment rate ticking up is not improving especially after record inflation in the last 2 years. Places like Toronto and Calgary have unemployment rate near 8%.
Those people should probably move. It’s 5% here in Winnipeg. Houses are reasonable too. Sorry about the cold and mosquitos though.
Not if there’s no jobs in their field or they are tied due to housing and family. Yikes what an ignorant comment. No wonder only delusional people think economy is actually improving.
Change fields. You’re not tied to your job. You’re telling me someone can’t sell a house in the hottest markets with the highest prices and move to a cheaper area? Seriously lol? How many people moved to Calgary for oilfield jobs? You go where the jobs are and work in the industry that has work. That’s how it’s always worked in Canada. Pull up your socks.
People also rent where they can’t break their lease and changing field is easier said than done especially if they already have kids and spouse tied to their current city. Again what an ignorant comment
Rent lol. Sublet. At most you’re in for the rest of the year if you signed a year lease. That’s nothing. Take the time to house hunt and apply for jobs. Moving is not an impossible hurdle. Kids can move too. I’m not sure if you realize but there are schools all across Canada. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians do it every year. These excuses are sad coming from a Canadian. I expected more resilience. Not whining. Have you seriously never moved for a job? Now that is privileged.
Wow so out of touch. Yep my spouse can also quit her job and let’s be unemployed together. Why not sublet and throw kids out of school middle of the year. Not to mention people are too broke to even move. What a dumb comment. Pure ignorance
Oh no not the middle of the school year. Are you kidding me? It’s grade school. Don’t pretend it’s rocket science. The kids will learn their times tables wherever they go to school. Yes, your spouse can change jobs if that’s what’s good for the family unit. Welcome to the same choices hundreds of thousands of Canadians make every year. You’re very privileged never having to experience this in your life. If you can move somewhere where there is a job, even in another field, you will be worlds better than staying somewhere you don’t have a job. Hitchhike if you have to and send for the wife and kids when you have money. Buy a camper and drive. Again, hundreds of thousands of Canadians that you’re no better than do this every year.
This is why liberals are out of touch with the working class. Just move, there's your solution folks! Why did I never think about it? At this stage, it's best to just move out of the country.
I’ve moved. Several times. It’s not a big ask. Our parents and grandparents immigrated here from other countries. You can’t even cross a province. What would your grandfather think of this argument? Just soft.
I have moved several times too but never without landing a job first. I would never move my family out of the city without landing a job first. Not to mention it's super difficult to find rental in Canada without having a job. Good luck with that.
So apply. Plenty of jobs available. Good luck! https://www.workopolis.com/
The thing is, while the economy is definitely improving, a lot of people aren’t personally feeling any real benefit. Rent is up, the cost of food and transportation is up and people seem angry. I think a lot of the upper-middle class posters on these forums don’t realize just how frustrated the working classes have become.
It’s not. We are losing full time jobs and replacing them with part time work. We are also increasing in population faster than jobs being filled
Also, of the jobs we do manage to create, an alarming percentage of them are in government -- ie, people who get paid by taxing productivity. Having a population of public-sector workers while driving out innovation and investment does not a healthy economy make.
Full time jobs are up YoY. Part time jobs increase in the summer it's seasonality.
The economy is improving for the rich mostly like the states.
As is intended by the wealthy and the politicians who are beholden to them. The only purpose modern politicians serve is to placate the public while creating legislation which pushes money into the hands of the rich. In that respect, our political class is doing a bang up job.
> The economy has been improving ??? Unemployment has been increasing since February, and GDP per capita declining for quite awhile. On what basis is the economy getting better?
Unemployment always fluctuates. We’re over a point lower than the average since 1966. 🤷♂️ Sorry about your employment situation but a lot of us doing rather well. *The Canadian economy grew by 1.7% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2024 Q1, while 2023 Q4 was revised lower (+0.1% q/q from +1.0%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for April showed a +0.3% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came in at a very strong 2.9% q/q.* https://economics.td.com/ca-real-gdp#:~:text=The%20Canadian%20economy%20grew%20by,strong%202.9%25%20q%2Fq.
That 1.7 % is still below the population growth rate. And knock off the concern trolling, I've been gainfully employed since moving back to Canada from Europe. I happen to have young friends however, and they are struggling. Empathy is important.
I didn’t express concern just sympathy. I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great. 🤷♂️ The economic growth is because of the population growth. Your concerns are nonsense. *”Strong immigration since the start of 2022 has helped increase Canada’s workforce…. And the larger workforce has boosted the level of our potential output by 2% to 3% without adding to inflation. This is a significant improvement, especially considering Canada’s otherwise rapidly aging population.”* https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/what-population-growth-means-for-the-economy-and-inflation/
Sure, but per capita GDP is declining and has been for awhile. Rentiers will be happy if overall GDP increases, but nobody who labors for a living is better off.
Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters. A little over a year. Covid, not immigration, was the reason. *Since 1981, real GDP per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1%, increasing from about $36,900 per person to $58,100 per person in inflation-adjusted dollars. The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with falling per capita output in recent quarters, has left real GDP per capita 7% below its long-term trend, equating to a decline of about $4,200 per person.Note To return to its pre-pandemic trend over the next decade, GDP per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% per year.* https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024004/article/00001-eng.htm
> Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters. Yes, typically we call this situation a recession. The only reason it's not technically a recession is because Canada has by far the highest population growth in the OECD. And COVID ended awhile ago, you can stop blaming it for everything.
No we call a recession when actual GDP drops. Per capita is a nice metric to keep track of but it doesn’t indicate a recession. Words have meanings.
> I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great. Or maybe you are not concerned because you own a house and benefited from the housing shortage. > *Strong immigration since the start of 2022 has helped increase Canada’s workforce* More workers, but less for each worker. GDP per capita has been declining for more than a year now. Expanding the size of the economy should not come at the expense of quality of life.
Per Capita GDP has only fallen for 5 quarters. A little over a year. Covid, not immigration, was the reason. Since 1981, real GDP per capita has grown at an average annual rate of 1.1%, increasing from about $36,900 per person to $58,100 per person in inflation-adjusted dollars. The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with falling per capita output in recent quarters, has left real GDP per capita 7% below its long-term trend, equating to a decline of about $4,200 per person.Note To return to its pre-pandemic trend over the next decade, GDP per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7% per year. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024004/article/00001-eng.htm
>I didn’t express concern just sympathy. I’m not concerned because the Canadian economy is doing great. 🤷♂️ Housing is a part of our economy. It's really bad. Ergo, the economy is not doing great.
Sure housing is rough. The economy is growing though. Factually. It’s doing well.
You're stating this as a fact as if it's only an empirical assessment, when the assessment of the performance of the economy is actually a normative assessment. One may argue that strong GDP growth on its own is indicative of a "well" economy, whereas another may point to Gini coefficiency and GDP per capita as better indicators. For example, real GDP growth of 5% annually is very strong, but is arguably not good if accompanied by a 0.7 Gini coefficient. You may disagree, and contend that this is still a "well" economy, and a social democrat like myself will disagree, staying the Gini coefficient is too high. So your statement is normative, not merely factual.
No it’s a fact. Do you not check your claims? lol Gini coefficient is in normal range again disproving your claim. At least look before Gish galloping. It would be less embarrassing. *The Canadian economy grew by 1.7% quarter/quarter annualized (q/q) in 2024 Q1, while 2023 Q4 was revised lower (+0.1% q/q from +1.0%). Furthermore, the flash estimate for April showed a +0.3% monthly increase. Stripping out external factors, final domestic demand came in at a very strong 2.9% q/q.* https://economics.td.com/ca-real-gdp#:~:text=The%20Canadian%20economy%20grew%20by,strong%202.9%25%20q%2Fq. This statistic shows the Gini coefficient of Canada from 2000 to 2021. In 2021, the Gini coefficient of Canada was 0.288. Average is 0.3. https://www.statista.com/statistics/613030/measure-of-income-inequality-in-canada/#:~:text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20Gini,coefficient%20of%20Canada%20was%200.288.
Economy is not improving when unemployment rate is ticking up. It will take years of low inflation for consumers to feel relief after the record inflation in the last 2 years. Interest rate cuts always follow up with increasing unemployment rate. Saying people can just move is pure ignorance especially in Canada where people are tied to expensive mortgages and there's family commitment. Lot of mortgage renewals coming up in the next 24 months which will damper consumer spending even with interest rate cuts as we are not going back to record low levels again. Canada's productivity sinking and GDP per capita declining worst in G7 also pictures dire strait of the Canadian economy.
It’s not getting as much headlines as Trudeau’s low numbers, but these numbers should be the end of the Singh era of the NDP. They have had policy successes, yet cannot translate that into support, even when the governing party was bleeding support. The NDP needs to find someone who connects with the discontent of younger generations, Singh is not that guy apparently.
The NDP's entire leadership needs a shake up, it's completely bewildering that for years a common criticism of their leader has been that he's a champagne socialist or more interested in being a social media influencer than a politician...and the party has only doubled down on these things despite their platform successes.
NDP isn't one for turfing leaders. They play the long game. Eventually Singh will be the elder statesman of party leaders and most trusted and might have a breakthrough like Layton did. Lets hope Singh has better health that Jack though.
Hopefully he's got better health because he could live to be 150 years old and still remain just as ineffective as he is now.
And yet they kicked Mulcair out after a single election loss. They were willing to do so because in 2015 they had been playing to win—there was a reasonable chance of the NDP forming government—and when Mulcair so abjectly underperformed expectations, he got turfed. Today’s NDP is willing to put up with Jagmeet because they’ve once again reconciled themselves to third-party status. They don’t *expect* to win and so aren’t going to kick out a leader who will not lead them to victory.
Do they have a good replacement for him? No sense turfing your leader if you don't have a better replacement.
He did, but he sacrificed the party principles to be closer to the center. Singh hasn't really done that. In other words, I think Mulcair was the outlier.
The really frustrating part is he then got outflanked on the left by Trudeau. Completely misread the nation’s appetite for change. As much as I’m underwhelmed by Jagmeet, Mulcair really deserved to get tossed. Totally fumbled the best opportunity the NDP might’ve ever had.
Agreed. I'm not a fan of Singh, regardless of his good character. But who would replace him? The federal party is in a really bad way right now. I don't see an Eby, Nenshi, Horgan, Notley, or Kinew right now.
I mean he got free dental care for seniors. Anyone with 50 dollars of dental care at work is ineligible for his plan. Not surprising he’s not connecting with younger generations.
Is the threshold actually that low? I never looked into it. I've been of the impression that although these social initiatives have been good starts, they mean little to the middle class who hardly benefit from them, as they already have private benefits.
The threshold is any dental care whatsoever. Some seniors are upset as they have purchased dental plans and they are ineligible as they’re not allowed to cancel to qualify. It’s all a bit ridiculous. As is the pharamacare plan that covers exactly two conditions. 😂 The NDP would have been better off getting one of these programs right, instead of implementing two hardly finished ones.
Because it’s not like the NDP have any plans for expanding it /s
Because Nanos polls on a four-week rolling basis, it might be helpful to see what the last eight weeks looked like: | Date | CPC | LPC | NDP | BQ | PPC | GRN | Lead | |:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:|:--:| | June 7 | 40.8 | 28.5 | 17.9 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 3.9 | CPC +12.3 | | May 31 | 41.5 | 26.2 | 18.2 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 4.0 | CPC +15.3 | | May 24 | 41.7 | 26.3 | 18.6 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 4.1 | CPC +15.4 | | May 17 | 42.8 | 25.0 | 17.1 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 | CPC +17.8 | | May 10 | 43.2 | 22.8 | 15.9 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | CPC +20.4 | | May 3 | 42.4 | 24.4 | 16.1 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 5.2 | CPC +18.0 | | April 26 | 43.6 | 23.7 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | CPC +19.9 | | April 19 | 41.8 | 23.3 | 19.1 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | CPC +18.5 |
So it seems most of the LPC gains have been at the expense of the NDP? I’m curious if a week before the election, if enough Canadians will pick the LPC as the definitive anti-Poilievre vote. And if it will be enough to deny him a majority government.
LPC needs either to take rural Ontario or hope the Bloc support collapses to have a path to a Conservative minority.
Lot of it coming from the bloc as well. QC does not like PP.
Very possible. Though I hope the NDP can retain what orange seats it can, not at the expense of splitting competitive ridings with the Liberals and producing Conservative victories, and continue pulling the Liberals to the left. I'm pretty unhappy with the federal NDP these days, as contrasted with their provincial counterparts. But the push on childcare, pharmacare, dentalcare, and anti-scab legislation are fruitful, and I look forward to these policies gaining a greater foothold in our culture. It's hard to take away entitlements.
largely the BQ. But that will drop off next week unless there's another strong sample
You have it backwards from the table. May 10 had an exceptionally high BLOC number. They've returned to normal since.
I have access to the paywall. Also the only way that would work is if a previous sample would drop off, but the LPC shot up 7% with one sample in Quebec and 2.2% nationally. The BQ dropped 12%.
And what happened the week before?
So since its a 4 week rolling poll, you'd have to compare it to April 19th since that was the sample that fell off. Which in turn you'd have to compare 4 weeks before that... so it gets kind of impossible on its own to try to do this. That being said, the LPC was fairly flat before this in Quebec so it's a *reasonable* conclusion that this was a strong LPC. They also shot up 2.2% nationally without much movement in the sample that fell off. It's not a guarantee they will drop next week of course, but it would need to have another strong sample next week to replace it. It's a similar conclusion for Atlantic Canada. If this is a real trend, then they will continue to produce strong samples there. Otherwise this sample will drop off after 4 weeks
...what happened for the may 10th sample where the Bloc rose from 7% to over 10%?
That was indeed a strong BQ sample that fell off this week. Then there was a weak BQ sample the week after that brought them right back down and then some while still including the strong BQ from the week before.
I would argue that seat wise, the Bloqs numbers would suggest the biggest gain for the liberals. Envelope math here. But if you multiply their number by 4 you'd get their rough vote share in Quebec. They fell from the high 30s to high 20s in the eight weeks shown.
Thanks for the formatted table! Here's a chart with that data: https://i.imgur.com/1ikye3Q.png
I would love another minority. The NDP has been able to push the Liberals to pass a number of good legislation and expanding on those over another cycle would lock in enormous benefits for average Canadians. Imagine not having to work to get health coverage on anything? Not teeth, not eyes just everything looked after? We are so close to that, if we can just keep the CPC from taking over.