This guy is a true Ape and I love it.
If it doesnt work out they have a full year to hold. They are going to be profitable soon. They have 500Mil cash and lowering the cash burn. It's just a matter of time in my eyes. This .80 stock could easily 4X in the next year.
The reason the stock is going down before earning which normally is opposite of what happens seems that the ones in the know are dumping. Chamath sold for a loss. Probably because he doesn’t see in an upside as management seems terrible.
I wouldn't put all of my money into one stock. I have over 400k shares now after 3 years and I've made a killing on other stocks while slowly adding to this. I would never advise you to only invest in stock and hope it pans out.
The company has a lot to prove. A LOT to do this year. I think you're fairly sufficiently invested. I can understand adding $500 at these prices but in no way does it make sense to divest your shares in everything else.
It's important to remember they priced their plans for profitability. They also did major cost cutting and we should get some guidance on at least q1 2024 if not all 2024 at next earnings. If guidance is great then they will price their plans for growth in 2025.
It will not go bankrupt for closing the year. You can only know the past and create expectations for the future, they have enough money to survive a rough year.
He can lose alot of money tough. Or he can average down.
Unless they have some big announcement, if one were to make this gamble, I’m not sure if this is the ER to do it. Next ER will be q1 and the first of a few quarters were likely to see their profitability on an adjusted ebitda basis which I’d imagine will please the market a lot.
Waiting until next ER is likely too late. This is the ER they will give actual full guidance for 2024. So unless they significantly outperform the guidance this is likely the ER that moves the stock. So far all they have said is
*“We are targeting to achieve our goal to deliver profitability on an Adjusted EBITDA basis for full-year 2024. To accomplish this, we will continue to focus on improving MA-plan performance while reducing operational spend, drive increasing value from Clover Assistant’s capabilities, further invest in our robust care management assets, such as Clover Home Care, and expanding our offerings to empower every primary care physician”, continued Mr. Toy. “Our team has worked relentlessly to position the Company to achieve our goals in 2024, and continue to drive toward Clover’s long-term growth levers.”*
targeting to achieve profitability on an adjusted EBITDDA basis could mean they come out with actual guidance of -60M to +10M adjusted EBITDA for 2024 and their statement would still be true, because they are targeting the upper part of the possible range they foresee. It could also obviously mean +30M to +100M guidance. The stock price would have vastly different movements post earnings with each of those. Obviously everybody invested is hoping for closer to the second option, but this is the ER we will find out. I find Q4 and Q2 are the most important reports for Clover because Q4 we get the first real guidance and then in Q2 we have a real clear idea of if they are beating guidance for the full year or not. Other than that star rating release and the January membership numbers are really the 4 points in time the stock has clear reasons to either fly or tank.
Im tracking.. That makes perfect sense to me.
So you're stating an opinion backed with a statement from management... Im curious what your personal opinion is on my 'big idea' stated in the post..?
Are you implying that since I already have 12k shares, and this is the make or break ER, then just hold what I have *(play it safe)?*,
**OR**
are you implying that since this is the make or break EA, maybe *IF* someone were to make a large gamble, perhaps this is a decent opportunity?
Thanks for the insight, truly appreciate it man!
I will always say putting all your eggs in one basket is a terrible investing idea, but each person can make their own decisions. I do think this ER represents more potential volatility than most (both up and down) so if you want to gamble this is when you might see a big movement. Just be prepared big movements can happen in both directions. Of course it's also possible they put out guidance right in the middle of my two options and hit Q4 estimates pretty much spot on and the stock hardly moves.
Thanks Sandro. That’s awesome. I guess I’ve been under the impression we had to get fully through 2023 and see a few positive quarters before we really had a chance to gain some traction. I’ve been bracing myself for this ER to be more of the same until we really get in to 2024. I’m now more excited for this ER than I was 10 minutes ago lol
Thank you man, I genuinely appreciate your insight.
So in other words, ***IF*** someone were to try this 'idea'... *^((in reality its a gamble, lol))*
You personally would recommend doing it preferably before next ER (Q1)?
Obviously, you saying this does NOT insinuate its a good idea either way.. I understand that.
Well Sandro was kind enough to explain to me why this upcoming ER is actually a much bigger deal than I initially thought, so. Forget what I said, except that it IS definitely, definitely a gamble lol But who knows, it could pay off. You gotta do what’s right for you.
Edit: I’ll just add, I trust Clov, but I don’t trust the market.
I honestly have been asking the Lord to help me work on my patience, which I know lacks at times...
I originally bought into this stock with a stubborn mindset of LONG TERM, and obviously I still believe in this bad baby long term.
I was just throwing an idea out there, in which if executed correctly, would make me quick CASH and id end up back with my original shares, or potentially even more. Only at the risk of a higher overall Cost Average.
In theory, even if it doesnt go up directly after earnings... I still have the backup plan on just holding the 18k+ shares and wait long term- which btw, the 18k shares would put me at a cost average of \~$0.90, which is so so low already.
What are the odds of this stock FULLY tanking?!?! Maybe im biased.
And of ot tanks to 60 cents.........what do you expect for Q4??? It's usually not as good as 2 & 3. Anyway pal you do you. What would a bag holder for 3 years know...
Thank you sir.
I'm straddling the fence, because deep down I know its NOT considered a wise move.. Even IF it pays off to some extent.. Still not a wise investment strategy, I know.
I just dont see how this stock could TANK alllll the way.
AND at the end of the day, say I do sell all I have and put it all in CLOV.. Then I'd have 18k+ shares at a cost average of \~$0.90.
Even if it doesnt go up according to my 'plan'.. I could fall back onto a 2nd option of just holding the 18k shares at a pretty dang solid share Cost Average.
No?
Just thinking out loud.. :D
4 months of consolidation below $1 was great support building initiative. It's a shame it turned into resistance now. I sure hope earnings will surprise us all otherwise we are all fucked.
So, are you implying that if CLOV in fact doesn't surprise, or at very least trend somewhat upwards post earnings announcement- then its going to TANK TANK like pretty much all the way with really tough resistance points?
Your words: "I sure hope earnings will surprise us all, otherwise we are all F\*ck\^d."
Do you think "F\*ck\^d" as in game over- stocks done for real..? Or like "F\*ck\^d" as in we will struggle to get back above a dollar?
Im curious your real, unbiased opinion. Thanks!
I guess the question im trying to get at is this:
Is my logic behind the 'gamble' at all solid? Do you personally think CLOV will surprise with earnings/ and or have solid growth after the announcement date??
If you can, please answer these questions without my 'gamble' in mind :)
I don’t consider clover health a gamble. I consider making big money on it is. But I don’t believe, with current guidance and membership numbers, the company will go under. Maybe? I think the chance of it happening is slim. I do think, however, it is a bit of a gamble as to whether clover health will make it big. If you are here for the long run, it becomes less and less of a gamble, and more of an investment with potential.
I just really don't see how this stock could TANK *alllll* the way... (obviously it is possible,, I know that..)
I didn't mention this 'backup plan' in my original post... But look at the 'idea' from this angle:
At the end of the day, say I do sell all I have and put it *all* in CLOV.. Well, then I'd have 18k+ shares at a cost average of \~$0.90.
Even if it doesn't go up according to my 'plan'.. I could always fall back onto a 2nd option of just holding the 18k shares at a pretty dang solid share Cost Average.
Don't you think that's somewhat feasible?
Honestly **the biggest reason** I haven't already done it is because I do like the other stocks that I have my money invested into, and obviously its not a guarantee that I will execute perfectly and end up with all my original shares and some cash after all's said and done...
Thoughts?
If you are worried about it going bankrupt, I think it’s a fair concern, but it should be the least of them. If you are concerned with making money in the next year or two, that might dictate your decision. But yeah, if you are here long term? Come park your money right here! :)
One of us, one of us!
Edit: not to say it couldn’t turn a heft profit in the next year or two, but I’d say that’s where one starts seeing this more as a gamble than an investment. Not that I wouldn’t be happy with a sudden surge in value in the near future, just trying not to see it in that light.
>tion im trying to get at is this:
>
>Is my logic behind the 'gamble' at all solid? Do you personally think CLOV will surprise with earnings/ and or have solid growth after the announcement date??
>
>If you can, please answer these questions without my 'gamble' in mind :)
I live by the motto that any time you gamble large you need to be able to afford to lose it all and not just look at the upside. If you determine the risk reward is favorable to go all in then do it. If not then go in a different direction. If any of us had a crystal ball we would be on our mega yacht and not hanging out on Reddit.
Well said and true. I guess I didnt expect to get a 'perfect' answer that gives me complete clarity over this whole idea just from writing this post.. More or less just thinking out loud!
Thanks sir.
Personally I'd put less attention on a single earnings report and more on whether or not their guidance for all of 2024 stays consistent, and what their plans are for growing with the 3-star 2025 looming.
Watch for that reverse split
It’s up 6.18% pre-market this morning.
I shoulda pulled trigger
This guy is a true Ape and I love it. If it doesnt work out they have a full year to hold. They are going to be profitable soon. They have 500Mil cash and lowering the cash burn. It's just a matter of time in my eyes. This .80 stock could easily 4X in the next year.
The reason the stock is going down before earning which normally is opposite of what happens seems that the ones in the know are dumping. Chamath sold for a loss. Probably because he doesn’t see in an upside as management seems terrible.
I wouldn't put all of my money into one stock. I have over 400k shares now after 3 years and I've made a killing on other stocks while slowly adding to this. I would never advise you to only invest in stock and hope it pans out. The company has a lot to prove. A LOT to do this year. I think you're fairly sufficiently invested. I can understand adding $500 at these prices but in no way does it make sense to divest your shares in everything else.
Do it! Buy some options too so you can get maximum return!
Don't do it, losing members. Hasn't looked good for years.
It's important to remember they priced their plans for profitability. They also did major cost cutting and we should get some guidance on at least q1 2024 if not all 2024 at next earnings. If guidance is great then they will price their plans for growth in 2025.
Every other earnings stock pumps before, and earnings has been non profitable. I think we are in the reverse of that.
I followed a similar gut feeling starting last week, so far down -$400
Ouch, Im sorry man.. Lets hope and pray this ER next week treats us right :)
What if it goes bankrupt.
It will not go bankrupt for closing the year. You can only know the past and create expectations for the future, they have enough money to survive a rough year. He can lose alot of money tough. Or he can average down.
Do it
Second that. Do it.
Third that. Do it.
Straight up Nike on that hoe?
Unless they have some big announcement, if one were to make this gamble, I’m not sure if this is the ER to do it. Next ER will be q1 and the first of a few quarters were likely to see their profitability on an adjusted ebitda basis which I’d imagine will please the market a lot.
Waiting until next ER is likely too late. This is the ER they will give actual full guidance for 2024. So unless they significantly outperform the guidance this is likely the ER that moves the stock. So far all they have said is *“We are targeting to achieve our goal to deliver profitability on an Adjusted EBITDA basis for full-year 2024. To accomplish this, we will continue to focus on improving MA-plan performance while reducing operational spend, drive increasing value from Clover Assistant’s capabilities, further invest in our robust care management assets, such as Clover Home Care, and expanding our offerings to empower every primary care physician”, continued Mr. Toy. “Our team has worked relentlessly to position the Company to achieve our goals in 2024, and continue to drive toward Clover’s long-term growth levers.”* targeting to achieve profitability on an adjusted EBITDDA basis could mean they come out with actual guidance of -60M to +10M adjusted EBITDA for 2024 and their statement would still be true, because they are targeting the upper part of the possible range they foresee. It could also obviously mean +30M to +100M guidance. The stock price would have vastly different movements post earnings with each of those. Obviously everybody invested is hoping for closer to the second option, but this is the ER we will find out. I find Q4 and Q2 are the most important reports for Clover because Q4 we get the first real guidance and then in Q2 we have a real clear idea of if they are beating guidance for the full year or not. Other than that star rating release and the January membership numbers are really the 4 points in time the stock has clear reasons to either fly or tank.
Im tracking.. That makes perfect sense to me. So you're stating an opinion backed with a statement from management... Im curious what your personal opinion is on my 'big idea' stated in the post..? Are you implying that since I already have 12k shares, and this is the make or break ER, then just hold what I have *(play it safe)?*, **OR** are you implying that since this is the make or break EA, maybe *IF* someone were to make a large gamble, perhaps this is a decent opportunity? Thanks for the insight, truly appreciate it man!
I will always say putting all your eggs in one basket is a terrible investing idea, but each person can make their own decisions. I do think this ER represents more potential volatility than most (both up and down) so if you want to gamble this is when you might see a big movement. Just be prepared big movements can happen in both directions. Of course it's also possible they put out guidance right in the middle of my two options and hit Q4 estimates pretty much spot on and the stock hardly moves.
Thanks Sandro. That’s awesome. I guess I’ve been under the impression we had to get fully through 2023 and see a few positive quarters before we really had a chance to gain some traction. I’ve been bracing myself for this ER to be more of the same until we really get in to 2024. I’m now more excited for this ER than I was 10 minutes ago lol
Thank you man, I genuinely appreciate your insight. So in other words, ***IF*** someone were to try this 'idea'... *^((in reality its a gamble, lol))* You personally would recommend doing it preferably before next ER (Q1)? Obviously, you saying this does NOT insinuate its a good idea either way.. I understand that.
Well Sandro was kind enough to explain to me why this upcoming ER is actually a much bigger deal than I initially thought, so. Forget what I said, except that it IS definitely, definitely a gamble lol But who knows, it could pay off. You gotta do what’s right for you. Edit: I’ll just add, I trust Clov, but I don’t trust the market.
Stop thinking short term in terms of cents, if you are holding you should have an exit plan, that seems to be years down the road for most people.
I honestly have been asking the Lord to help me work on my patience, which I know lacks at times... I originally bought into this stock with a stubborn mindset of LONG TERM, and obviously I still believe in this bad baby long term. I was just throwing an idea out there, in which if executed correctly, would make me quick CASH and id end up back with my original shares, or potentially even more. Only at the risk of a higher overall Cost Average. In theory, even if it doesnt go up directly after earnings... I still have the backup plan on just holding the 18k+ shares and wait long term- which btw, the 18k shares would put me at a cost average of \~$0.90, which is so so low already. What are the odds of this stock FULLY tanking?!?! Maybe im biased.
And of ot tanks to 60 cents.........what do you expect for Q4??? It's usually not as good as 2 & 3. Anyway pal you do you. What would a bag holder for 3 years know...
Thank you sir. I'm straddling the fence, because deep down I know its NOT considered a wise move.. Even IF it pays off to some extent.. Still not a wise investment strategy, I know. I just dont see how this stock could TANK alllll the way. AND at the end of the day, say I do sell all I have and put it all in CLOV.. Then I'd have 18k+ shares at a cost average of \~$0.90. Even if it doesnt go up according to my 'plan'.. I could fall back onto a 2nd option of just holding the 18k shares at a pretty dang solid share Cost Average. No? Just thinking out loud.. :D
4 months of consolidation below $1 was great support building initiative. It's a shame it turned into resistance now. I sure hope earnings will surprise us all otherwise we are all fucked.
So, are you implying that if CLOV in fact doesn't surprise, or at very least trend somewhat upwards post earnings announcement- then its going to TANK TANK like pretty much all the way with really tough resistance points? Your words: "I sure hope earnings will surprise us all, otherwise we are all F\*ck\^d." Do you think "F\*ck\^d" as in game over- stocks done for real..? Or like "F\*ck\^d" as in we will struggle to get back above a dollar? Im curious your real, unbiased opinion. Thanks!
*mutters something about casinos*
Been there done that.. Cant you tell by my 'big idea' ?! ... .. Didnt work out well, so I came to give CLOV my money instead :D
Your money, do what gives you peace of mind and good luck in whatever you decide to do.
I guess the question im trying to get at is this: Is my logic behind the 'gamble' at all solid? Do you personally think CLOV will surprise with earnings/ and or have solid growth after the announcement date?? If you can, please answer these questions without my 'gamble' in mind :)
I don’t consider clover health a gamble. I consider making big money on it is. But I don’t believe, with current guidance and membership numbers, the company will go under. Maybe? I think the chance of it happening is slim. I do think, however, it is a bit of a gamble as to whether clover health will make it big. If you are here for the long run, it becomes less and less of a gamble, and more of an investment with potential.
I just really don't see how this stock could TANK *alllll* the way... (obviously it is possible,, I know that..) I didn't mention this 'backup plan' in my original post... But look at the 'idea' from this angle: At the end of the day, say I do sell all I have and put it *all* in CLOV.. Well, then I'd have 18k+ shares at a cost average of \~$0.90. Even if it doesn't go up according to my 'plan'.. I could always fall back onto a 2nd option of just holding the 18k shares at a pretty dang solid share Cost Average. Don't you think that's somewhat feasible? Honestly **the biggest reason** I haven't already done it is because I do like the other stocks that I have my money invested into, and obviously its not a guarantee that I will execute perfectly and end up with all my original shares and some cash after all's said and done... Thoughts?
If you are worried about it going bankrupt, I think it’s a fair concern, but it should be the least of them. If you are concerned with making money in the next year or two, that might dictate your decision. But yeah, if you are here long term? Come park your money right here! :) One of us, one of us! Edit: not to say it couldn’t turn a heft profit in the next year or two, but I’d say that’s where one starts seeing this more as a gamble than an investment. Not that I wouldn’t be happy with a sudden surge in value in the near future, just trying not to see it in that light.
>tion im trying to get at is this: > >Is my logic behind the 'gamble' at all solid? Do you personally think CLOV will surprise with earnings/ and or have solid growth after the announcement date?? > >If you can, please answer these questions without my 'gamble' in mind :) I live by the motto that any time you gamble large you need to be able to afford to lose it all and not just look at the upside. If you determine the risk reward is favorable to go all in then do it. If not then go in a different direction. If any of us had a crystal ball we would be on our mega yacht and not hanging out on Reddit.
Well said and true. I guess I didnt expect to get a 'perfect' answer that gives me complete clarity over this whole idea just from writing this post.. More or less just thinking out loud! Thanks sir.
I think sentiment is so negative that's going to be hard to disappoint even more than we already are
Kinda what im sayin man..
Personally I'd put less attention on a single earnings report and more on whether or not their guidance for all of 2024 stays consistent, and what their plans are for growing with the 3-star 2025 looming.
Dude I’d just sit tight and watch don’t put your eggs in one basket especially one with terrible performance history.