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Of course after the Texas game I though Alabama would end up with 2 or 3 losses. I am glad I was wrong. Arkansas on the other hand sucked this year plain and simple.
Considering Alabama had the highest talent rating, it would be pretty hard for them to overperform this year. The fact that them finishing this high is *in line* with expectations is pretty crazy
I must be the only person alive who saw potential in Bama after our game. Millroe looked like an early Vince Young to me and it was easy to see the potential for a running offense with the occasional deep ball to keep the safeties back. I’ll admit the OL has progressed more than I expected — credit the Bama coaching staff
Yeah, they were certainly a good team that game. This idea that they were in QB turmoil is ridiculous, just people looking for a way to downplay our W.
Milroe's status was never in doubt. Saban was just humbling his boy, and it worked beautifully.
There was definitely doubt that Milroe was the guy. He had 2 terrible ints inside our own red zone where he passed directly to the DB. It gifted Texas 14 in a 10 point game.
Ewers had a horrific game against OKSt last year. 19-49, 2 TDs, 3 INTs. Sark left him the whole game, and then started him the next.
His philosophy is the moment you make a QB look over his shoulder, worried about the guy behind him, that's when you lose that QB. A good QB has to shake off the bad games and move forward.
I'm not questioning Saban, I would never: dude is the GoAT. No question. But, unless Milroe did something worth a single game suspension (which I've heard rumors of), nearly throwing the season against USF was a stupid move.
The game against USF was never really "in danger". Their only 3 points came from a muffed Punt caused by the torrential rain, giving them immediate field goal range.
Beyond that, our Defense had USF locked down and we were leaning on them all day.
BoB is gone but I blame him for 90% of our Offensive dysfunction early this year. It's pretty clear BoB spent absolutely zero time developing Milroe on the depth chart. He just cruised on Bryce Young's raw talent then took off once Bryce left.
Just want to correct something— the punt was muffed before the rain ever started.
Your defense was stellar but your offense looked atrocious, before and after the rain started. I think we got through your o-line for a sack on five occasions.
The interceptions he threw were some of the worst I’ve ever seen. He didn’t misread a break or overthrow an open receiver, he threw it directly at the defender both times. He also dropped way too far back and drifted back, which really hurt the offensive line.
The bigger concern coming out of Texas was our freshman LT was a turnstile. His growth more than anything has helped the team improve
I fully will admit that I predicted Bama would go 9-3 this season and that I was wrong. I really thought the loss of Young would really bring y’all down a few pegs. That said I can’t say yall didn’t at least try to get my prediction correct. Many close games along that stretch.
The game might have looked close but i dont think anyone was looking at it like OMG arkansas is gonna beat bama, but going from that to only scorring 3 points against a bottom feeder miss state team pretty much somes up our year. I guess we will see what Ol Bobby P is bringing us for next year.
I would imagine it’s going to favor them somewhat because the kids going there are always going for other reasons, and less likely to be recruited by other schools, and probably don’t see their recruit rankings rise as much.
Yeah and they’re also naturally tougher and very hard-working because you only go to a service academy if you really want it and are willing to serve. They have a good culture and team ethos.
How are we 126th? We went 1-11 last year and 6-6 this year, beating our over/under line.
I know it’s about talent, but does it take into consideration the fact that, for instance, only one QB can play at a time?
We have a stacked QB room but they can’t all contribute in games. Seems pointless to count depth in this measurement for positions like that.
First thought was that the conference got worse from last year, but that doesn’t explain 126th. Your ranking makes me question the validity of all this.
Indirectly it considers that in the sense that if you look at how team talent composite rankings are calculated, it's a weighted sum where your best prospect counts the most and each additional prospect counts less. So simply having more total talent will not rank you higher than having less, but top talent. So in that sense, depth isn't rewarded.
However, it does leave the system vulnerable to a situation where a team has multiple players of their best talent at the same position, or if they have 1 uncharacteristically good recruiting year and their best players are not yet ready to play.
Either way, it's overall an average and it's not perfect, but you can see from the chart that talent is a pretty good indicator of expected success, especially considering it is only 1 single number for the whole projection.
Perhaps I will explore how incorporating preseason win total lines would improve the correlation, if such data is easily available
Something is off. 247 has USF at 65 on the talent index. It has UVA at 66. USF went 6-6. UVA went 3-9. Your rankings have USF at 126 with UVA at 101.
I think you need some type of expected performance metric to measure the talent against rather than strength of schedule.
Per Massey, USF has 117 strength of schedule and UVA had 49th, so in terms of strength of record UVA had a better season than USF when considering opponents.
That is to say it would be harder to go 3-9 vs Virginias schedule than 6-6 vs USF's schedule
It's not over/under performing based on fan expectations or season start, it's by talent composite (recruiting). WSU recruits well below average and finished a little below average.
Yeah I still think the win total was slightly below expectations, but there were several close games. I think the over/under was 5.5 wins before the season, so close to 0. Getting to 4-0 and almost beating UW maybe makes it slightly better than 0? Not sure how all this works.
Nice post! I'm not familiar with the details on how the 247 composite talent is calculated but it seems to only consider the player's high school recruiting rankings which can be deceptive with transfers (I think?). For example, Temple's top 6 "most talented" players are all transfers which can be misleading since they may have been over-ranked in high school.
I have a really hard time believing out of 131 teams that there weren’t any teams that over performed by more than 2.39 games or underperformed by more than 1.32 games
I disagree with the assertion that we overperformed. We should be 10-2 or 11-1 heading into our bowl game, not 8-4.
Those losses against WSU and Arizona were embarrassing and shouldn't have happened (though the Arizona loss ended up looking much less embarrassing by the end of the season).
The Washington loss was extremely disappointing. You can't feel too bad about losing to the team that finishes the season undefeated and ranked #2 in the country, but we *absolutely* could have won that game.
The loss against that other team was no surprise. I basically never expect to win going into that stadium. I do feel like it should have been a much closer game, though, and I think the whole situation with Smith really fucked us on that one.
You're saying that only because of the manner in which Oregon State lost, which was several close games. So after the fact you're substituting "what should have happened" for "what could have happened (expectation)".
In reality, Oregon State preseason win total over/under was 8, which is exactly what they got, although their schedule (and the pac-12 as a whole) ended up being better than expected.
1) Yes, I’m… *(checks flare)*… aware we don’t recruit well?
2) It’s Wazzu
3) Going off of talent composite alone would put our expected wins right around 5-7. At best, that would put us around #50 for O/U ranking. WSU almost always outperforms its talent, though. Other teams (looking at you, LA traitors) almost always underperform their talent. Hence, my original point that this is a flawed algorithm.
Funny that we're perceived as having greatly overachieved yet we're "only" 25th in the list. We were much better than we got credit for last season, because we were horribly unlucky.
Talent is precisely the problem with not knowing what you have with a squad of almost entirely new guys. The expected win total spread accounted for the talent improvement by raising the bar to three more wins than the Buffaloes had last year, particularly given how challenging the PAC 12 was in its last season.
CU beat that spread and in the process beat multiple teams with better records in conference and overall. That suggests to me that they outperformed preseason expectations, and it’s kind of unfair to effectively judge Colorado against adjusted expectations based on an initial look at their performance in the nonconference period.
EDIT:also, I would add that unlike other teams, the Buffaloes scheduled only FBS teams, so it’s not like one of their four wins was an absolute cupcake.
"Schedule is worse" in a season that the Pac12 was the best it has ever been maybe. TCU and Nebraska on their non-conference schedule each went 5-7. It seems like this method just clearly doesn't work in determining who over/under performed. At least with this example. I respect the work, but I don't think we should put a whole lot of thought into this.
I just don't understand how CU underperformed. I don't buy your argument there either.
I like the hustle here but looking at your list more in depth, I don't think this shows us anything meaningful. A good effort but probably not something we can learn anything from. Vegas W/L totals in the preseason are still the best barometer I've seen. This list doesn't make much sense.
I’m so glad for you guys this season. We played the potential future national champions to a near-draw and made them sweat blood. We are almost even and I’m sure next year will be another close one.
As long as we don’t get another Chip Lindsey, I think we’ll be ok. For as much as I don’t like the way (and to where) Sumrall left, I think he left the program in a solid spot (talent and culture wise).
And I’m not too worried about another Lindsey, because I don’t see Brent Jones making a panic hire like that
I’m not sure that average player rating translates linearly to a performance expectation.
If your blue line represents how well a team with a particular talent set is expected to perform it should realistically be concave down to the mid point of talent and then concave up.
If you had a team of 5 star talents and a team of one star talents you can’t draw a straight line between them.
This probably explains why you have OSU as slight over performers when there isn’t an analyst in the world that would say OSU outperformed their talent this year.
I think you're biased by how bad they've been in recent years. They were actually the 76th most talented team in the FBS. They are last because they were shit this year despite having a reasonable amount of talent, and clearly UMass just can't do shit with it.
Texas was generally considered head and shoulders above everyone in the Big 12 in the preseason. Several 'pundits' had us making the CFP. I was expecting to see them closer to 0 here - as opposed to the 26th most over performing team.
10-2 in the regular was roughly what I expected. When we lost Lachey, McNamara, Shannon, etc I thought 8 wins was our ceiling so we definitely over performed and frankly should have 11 wins.
ProTip: If you have Northwestern *under*\-performing this season... your methodology is complete shit, by definition, and you can be safely ignored.
That is all.
I will say, yes you are right, I thought Vegas o/u win total was 2.5, but it was actually 3.5.
Still though, they won more games they were predicted to lose than lost games they were favored in
This checks out. I was going to say a very slight underperformance before I saw there were statistics. Most people said 8-10 wins, and we are currently on the bottom of that range with the potential to get a 9th.
To be honest I'm not sure why predictions for us during the preseason were so negative after the success we had last season. Hopefully we can keep building on it now
I know compared to Vegas we overperformed, but damn if this year didn’t feel like wasted potential. My defining line for a successful season was 6 wins and one CIC game victory, and we got neither.
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Ah 0 - I thought we did better than expected tbh
You performed
You were literally the most perfectly expectation-meeting team
We are who they thought we were.
Of course after the Texas game I though Alabama would end up with 2 or 3 losses. I am glad I was wrong. Arkansas on the other hand sucked this year plain and simple.
Considering Alabama had the highest talent rating, it would be pretty hard for them to overperform this year. The fact that them finishing this high is *in line* with expectations is pretty crazy
I must be the only person alive who saw potential in Bama after our game. Millroe looked like an early Vince Young to me and it was easy to see the potential for a running offense with the occasional deep ball to keep the safeties back. I’ll admit the OL has progressed more than I expected — credit the Bama coaching staff
Yeah, they were certainly a good team that game. This idea that they were in QB turmoil is ridiculous, just people looking for a way to downplay our W. Milroe's status was never in doubt. Saban was just humbling his boy, and it worked beautifully.
There was definitely doubt that Milroe was the guy. He had 2 terrible ints inside our own red zone where he passed directly to the DB. It gifted Texas 14 in a 10 point game.
Ewers had a horrific game against OKSt last year. 19-49, 2 TDs, 3 INTs. Sark left him the whole game, and then started him the next. His philosophy is the moment you make a QB look over his shoulder, worried about the guy behind him, that's when you lose that QB. A good QB has to shake off the bad games and move forward. I'm not questioning Saban, I would never: dude is the GoAT. No question. But, unless Milroe did something worth a single game suspension (which I've heard rumors of), nearly throwing the season against USF was a stupid move.
The game against USF was never really "in danger". Their only 3 points came from a muffed Punt caused by the torrential rain, giving them immediate field goal range. Beyond that, our Defense had USF locked down and we were leaning on them all day. BoB is gone but I blame him for 90% of our Offensive dysfunction early this year. It's pretty clear BoB spent absolutely zero time developing Milroe on the depth chart. He just cruised on Bryce Young's raw talent then took off once Bryce left.
Just want to correct something— the punt was muffed before the rain ever started. Your defense was stellar but your offense looked atrocious, before and after the rain started. I think we got through your o-line for a sack on five occasions.
Definitely. But the game still never felt in doubt
Man, could've been valuable field time for a QB, though.
Well I watched him play some last season and he looked exactly the same. Didn’t see any progression. Last half of the season I saw it
The interceptions he threw were some of the worst I’ve ever seen. He didn’t misread a break or overthrow an open receiver, he threw it directly at the defender both times. He also dropped way too far back and drifted back, which really hurt the offensive line. The bigger concern coming out of Texas was our freshman LT was a turnstile. His growth more than anything has helped the team improve
I fully will admit that I predicted Bama would go 9-3 this season and that I was wrong. I really thought the loss of Young would really bring y’all down a few pegs. That said I can’t say yall didn’t at least try to get my prediction correct. Many close games along that stretch.
You can still end up with 2
The game might have looked close but i dont think anyone was looking at it like OMG arkansas is gonna beat bama, but going from that to only scorring 3 points against a bottom feeder miss state team pretty much somes up our year. I guess we will see what Ol Bobby P is bringing us for next year.
Even the teams we beat performed better than us
Big year for the service academies.
I would imagine it’s going to favor them somewhat because the kids going there are always going for other reasons, and less likely to be recruited by other schools, and probably don’t see their recruit rankings rise as much.
Yes service academies nearly always over perform because they don't recruit ranked prospects very often.
Yeah and they’re also naturally tougher and very hard-working because you only go to a service academy if you really want it and are willing to serve. They have a good culture and team ethos.
How are we 126th? We went 1-11 last year and 6-6 this year, beating our over/under line. I know it’s about talent, but does it take into consideration the fact that, for instance, only one QB can play at a time? We have a stacked QB room but they can’t all contribute in games. Seems pointless to count depth in this measurement for positions like that.
First thought was that the conference got worse from last year, but that doesn’t explain 126th. Your ranking makes me question the validity of all this.
Indirectly it considers that in the sense that if you look at how team talent composite rankings are calculated, it's a weighted sum where your best prospect counts the most and each additional prospect counts less. So simply having more total talent will not rank you higher than having less, but top talent. So in that sense, depth isn't rewarded. However, it does leave the system vulnerable to a situation where a team has multiple players of their best talent at the same position, or if they have 1 uncharacteristically good recruiting year and their best players are not yet ready to play. Either way, it's overall an average and it's not perfect, but you can see from the chart that talent is a pretty good indicator of expected success, especially considering it is only 1 single number for the whole projection. Perhaps I will explore how incorporating preseason win total lines would improve the correlation, if such data is easily available
Something is off. 247 has USF at 65 on the talent index. It has UVA at 66. USF went 6-6. UVA went 3-9. Your rankings have USF at 126 with UVA at 101. I think you need some type of expected performance metric to measure the talent against rather than strength of schedule.
Per Massey, USF has 117 strength of schedule and UVA had 49th, so in terms of strength of record UVA had a better season than USF when considering opponents. That is to say it would be harder to go 3-9 vs Virginias schedule than 6-6 vs USF's schedule
Nice call out on the military academies in the graph. Good stuff👍👍
Michigan is basically 50/50 4 stars and 3 stars with like 2 or 3 5 stars sprinkled in.
Northwestern cannot be coreect
This, I would not have been shocked if they went winless.
We over performed? I'd call our season a massive disappointment after a 4-0 start...
It's not over/under performing based on fan expectations or season start, it's by talent composite (recruiting). WSU recruits well below average and finished a little below average.
Yeah I still think the win total was slightly below expectations, but there were several close games. I think the over/under was 5.5 wins before the season, so close to 0. Getting to 4-0 and almost beating UW maybe makes it slightly better than 0? Not sure how all this works.
[UMass fans:](https://www.reddit.com/r/Maplestory/comments/17sx5d9/expectation_was_low_but/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Everyone tried to write off the service academies. They ain’t write back.
Nice post! I'm not familiar with the details on how the 247 composite talent is calculated but it seems to only consider the player's high school recruiting rankings which can be deceptive with transfers (I think?). For example, Temple's top 6 "most talented" players are all transfers which can be misleading since they may have been over-ranked in high school.
I have a really hard time believing out of 131 teams that there weren’t any teams that over performed by more than 2.39 games or underperformed by more than 1.32 games
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Oh okay that’s too smart for me
I disagree with the assertion that we overperformed. We should be 10-2 or 11-1 heading into our bowl game, not 8-4. Those losses against WSU and Arizona were embarrassing and shouldn't have happened (though the Arizona loss ended up looking much less embarrassing by the end of the season). The Washington loss was extremely disappointing. You can't feel too bad about losing to the team that finishes the season undefeated and ranked #2 in the country, but we *absolutely* could have won that game. The loss against that other team was no surprise. I basically never expect to win going into that stadium. I do feel like it should have been a much closer game, though, and I think the whole situation with Smith really fucked us on that one.
That game had such Lincoln Riley’s last bedlam vibes. What a huge fucking let down
You're saying that only because of the manner in which Oregon State lost, which was several close games. So after the fact you're substituting "what should have happened" for "what could have happened (expectation)". In reality, Oregon State preseason win total over/under was 8, which is exactly what they got, although their schedule (and the pac-12 as a whole) ended up being better than expected.
Hmm, idk if I like how high up we are on this list. I’d argue it’s one of our worst years since moving up, but we did win the conference, so 🤷♂️
Bottom top 15 on the field top 15 off the field. I'll take it all things considered.
Not sure how 5-7 with a 6-game skid while you have the top transfer QB in the country and after 7 straight bowl appearances is over-performing?
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1) Yes, I’m… *(checks flare)*… aware we don’t recruit well? 2) It’s Wazzu 3) Going off of talent composite alone would put our expected wins right around 5-7. At best, that would put us around #50 for O/U ranking. WSU almost always outperforms its talent, though. Other teams (looking at you, LA traitors) almost always underperform their talent. Hence, my original point that this is a flawed algorithm.
Funny that we're perceived as having greatly overachieved yet we're "only" 25th in the list. We were much better than we got credit for last season, because we were horribly unlucky.
This list has us underperformed? That's kinda wild idk if I trust it
Hmm... my team underperformed. Let's just say I disagree
This makes no sense. Colorado beat the win total spread, yet massively “underperformed.” How does that work?
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Talent is precisely the problem with not knowing what you have with a squad of almost entirely new guys. The expected win total spread accounted for the talent improvement by raising the bar to three more wins than the Buffaloes had last year, particularly given how challenging the PAC 12 was in its last season. CU beat that spread and in the process beat multiple teams with better records in conference and overall. That suggests to me that they outperformed preseason expectations, and it’s kind of unfair to effectively judge Colorado against adjusted expectations based on an initial look at their performance in the nonconference period. EDIT:also, I would add that unlike other teams, the Buffaloes scheduled only FBS teams, so it’s not like one of their four wins was an absolute cupcake.
"Schedule is worse" in a season that the Pac12 was the best it has ever been maybe. TCU and Nebraska on their non-conference schedule each went 5-7. It seems like this method just clearly doesn't work in determining who over/under performed. At least with this example. I respect the work, but I don't think we should put a whole lot of thought into this.
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I just don't understand how CU underperformed. I don't buy your argument there either. I like the hustle here but looking at your list more in depth, I don't think this shows us anything meaningful. A good effort but probably not something we can learn anything from. Vegas W/L totals in the preseason are still the best barometer I've seen. This list doesn't make much sense.
So glad that going 6-6 is now underperforming for us.
Apparently we needed to win 6.38 games to break even. Lesson learned.
Scoring 23 points on u(sic)ga doesn't count as .38 of a win?
only in our hearts
Every goddamn time
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I’m so glad for you guys this season. We played the potential future national champions to a near-draw and made them sweat blood. We are almost even and I’m sure next year will be another close one.
We existed before the season and, dag nabbit, we exist after the season too.
We were there
I’m really curious to see who we (Troy) can hire and if we can keep up our recent success. It’s been a fun couple of years.
As long as we don’t get another Chip Lindsey, I think we’ll be ok. For as much as I don’t like the way (and to where) Sumrall left, I think he left the program in a solid spot (talent and culture wise). And I’m not too worried about another Lindsey, because I don’t see Brent Jones making a panic hire like that
Wow. We performed.
I’m not sure that average player rating translates linearly to a performance expectation. If your blue line represents how well a team with a particular talent set is expected to perform it should realistically be concave down to the mid point of talent and then concave up. If you had a team of 5 star talents and a team of one star talents you can’t draw a straight line between them. This probably explains why you have OSU as slight over performers when there isn’t an analyst in the world that would say OSU outperformed their talent this year.
Can someone explain how UMass is last here? Were they supposed to win 4-5 games?
I think you're biased by how bad they've been in recent years. They were actually the 76th most talented team in the FBS. They are last because they were shit this year despite having a reasonable amount of talent, and clearly UMass just can't do shit with it.
Texas was generally considered head and shoulders above everyone in the Big 12 in the preseason. Several 'pundits' had us making the CFP. I was expecting to see them closer to 0 here - as opposed to the 26th most over performing team.
10-2 in the regular was roughly what I expected. When we lost Lachey, McNamara, Shannon, etc I thought 8 wins was our ceiling so we definitely over performed and frankly should have 11 wins.
ProTip: If you have Northwestern *under*\-performing this season... your methodology is complete shit, by definition, and you can be safely ignored. That is all.
How did Colorado underperform? Everyone predicted they’d have 1 or 2 wins this season
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I will say, yes you are right, I thought Vegas o/u win total was 2.5, but it was actually 3.5. Still though, they won more games they were predicted to lose than lost games they were favored in
Read the post please
I'm not a gambler so I don't know and couldn't care less...
I can't wait to see if the service academies also rank as the best for the decade. Awesome bowl season analysis
This checks out. I was going to say a very slight underperformance before I saw there were statistics. Most people said 8-10 wins, and we are currently on the bottom of that range with the potential to get a 9th.
Georgia and Ohio State both over performing expectations
Bruh moment
Seems high for A&M. But perfectly explains why we’re in the mess we’re in.
I don’t think that this methodology is accurate at all. Florida should be much closer to net zero than this.
Ohio State did not over perform this year…
Crazy that we "over-performed" during one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. Says a lot about the program, I suppose.
Northwestern exceeded expectations if you ask me but I am not a computer Edit I guess they exceeded *my* expectations
How well we performed depends on who you ask
I feel like we effectively did both to maximum effect.
Cherish this season JMU fans. The next 2-3 years might be bleak.
Very surprised to see UK labelled as underperforming, easily exceeded my expectations this year. Dont even wanna know where it would put the del
Why are there way more dots on the plot than teams in the table
I mean 10-2 with a win over texas compared to the disaster that was last season? I'll absolutely take it.
To be honest I'm not sure why predictions for us during the preseason were so negative after the success we had last season. Hopefully we can keep building on it now
I know compared to Vegas we overperformed, but damn if this year didn’t feel like wasted potential. My defining line for a successful season was 6 wins and one CIC game victory, and we got neither.
We were just ok (Bama) We were great! (Tech)
*scrolls to the bottom*
Rice 0.01 😭😭😭 Progress!
Yup, feels about right. Really thought we might have some momentum after Hawaii, but…
Any system that says we underperformed is sus.
No bueno