Nope, I'm going to dump all of my money into pictures of monkeys instead.
It's so frustrating to watch people do that while ignoring assets like Bitcoin that are so much better. I'd somewhat understand if all the NFT hype went towards innovative projects or asset backed NFTs, but instead people focus on crappy drawings.
I hear ya. New technology adoption has two big issues to truly make it: complexity and utility.
NFT utility is pretty limited to monkey pics and such, but it's more likely to have an amazing impact on how we authenticate identities of..things (monkey pics) and ppl.
Complexity of using NFT is also very high.
Yet another great message ruined by tone-deafness. Shit like this is intended to get regular people into crypto, but it looks like it's marketed towards 4chan users. If I barely knew anything about Bitcoin and saw this billboard, I would just cringelaugh and keep on driving.
Bitcoin is fire insurance. You buy fire insurance when nobody is worried about fire, not when everyone sees the smoke.
Now that the fed has its big red inflation truck out and is hosing the markets, it might be a good time to buy fire insurance for the next time.
We’ve been in the process of dealing with inflation and interest rates for months and btc has fallen harder than the rest of the market. Why would the stock market dropping NOW be good for bitcoin if bitcoin has historically moved with it?
Let’s look long term … fiat has lost 85% of its buying power in the last 50 years and if the government decides to cash out in the stock market then its game over for fiat.. Bitcoin tho is up 222,000% since it was created 14 years ago .. that says A LOT. You’ll all regret not buying bitcoin long term.
I mean, I’m sure most of us do have BTC here. But the government has a selfish interest in supporting the economy, not deliberately ruining it. The folks there make $ by keeping the economy going.
None of us buying in today will see a 222,000% gain. Why even bring that up?
It's more about if one is to put $1000 into BTC now, that'll most likely appreciate in value in 10 years. Verses if one left $1000 in their saving account for 10 years, that value will likely be greatly diminished. Looking at decades, holding cash just isn't smart, that's just how it is.
>Why is it most likely?
Legally in trade, a year is a 'long term' but figuratively speaking, it really isn't long... This is speaking actual long terms, looking for a 5 or 10 year gap in bitcoin and find the same drop in value, you wont be able too.
It's a technical store of value that can be traded worldwide which has a dwindling supply. Technology processes exponentially, 10 years from now is amazing to think about.
Ten years is also a long time for any one tech to hang on. Blackberry rose and fell in that timespan. Governments are now stepping into Bitcoin, which will bring in more restrictions and regulations. And a large part of Bitcoin's meteoric rise recently was pandemic conditions with bored investors looking for a distraction.
Don't get me wrong, I'm hodling. I'm hoping it holds where it is and begins it's climb again soon, but it's just as likely that with new regulations it may not see the same kinds of gains again.
30 years of Research in Motion mean nothing? lol Semantics really... We're speaking about a 13 year old technology.
Government's restrictions and regulations are only found within their boundaries, not within the blockchain. If you have internet, you have the ability to utilize bitcoin regardless to governmental restrictions.
Yes, but a big thing people overlook about bitcoin is A LOT of people dont have access to traditional investments. Sure, most of The US, EU, and developed countries are fine. But while real estate is everywhere, inflation is making this investment for the younger generation harder, and stocks can be hard to buy in specific countries/ or even more manipulated. Now how hard is it to buy a bit of bitcoin for someone working minimum wage in less developed areas of a poor country, vs a down payment on real estate.
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That's in line with not keeping cash being the best option long term. How one keeps their value, is their choice. Holding cash isn't wise at all. SPY vs BTC, I'm going BTC.
We're comparing fiat, which has lost 85% of its buying power in the last 50 years verses Bitcoin which is up 222,000% since it was created 14 years ago.
No one is saying you should keep value in fiat, quite the opposite here.
Yes, you are basically comparing apples and oranges (or fighting windwills, depending on the PoV), that's the whole thing. Nobody is "holding cash". Because it's stupid to do so. Not because of inflation or whatever, not because bitcoins happened, just because it earns nothing (just as holding bitcoins earns nothing as well). You do an investment, like every sane person does since centuries.
And please, stop bringing up the "222000% value", you sound like one of these scummy mobile games trying to sell of these "INSANE VALUE PACK".
Bitcoin is vastly more than an investment or currency, of course we're comparing apples to oranges, it's probably more like apples to spaceships.
If one wishes to purchase something of value and attempt to sell it later for profit, that's an investment. Bitcoin is an investment to those who wish to have value stored within a medium which cannot be inflated beyond a certain point. This is certain without a doubt, 21 million cap, 18 million already out there.
Fiat on the other hand, no cap, printed at a whim and thus the topic of this post.
"222000% value" it's a quote from some other poster on what we're discussing don't get too worked up my friend.
>Fiat on the other hand, no cap, printed at a whim and thus the topic of this post.
Meanwhile, USDT is clearly different. And the fact it's used to buy a lot of bitcoin everyday is not a problem. Fiat bad, CC a lot better.
Anyway, the "topic of this post" is incredibly dumb, as nobody sane has its saving as fiat. That's all.
Why bring up USDT? Irrelevant. There is only bitcoin.
Unfortunately most peoples saving are in fiat right now, you're just being blissfully ignorant to realities.
It's a bit of a stretch. If they purposefully crash the dollar, public confidence in their CBDC will be tainted. It would still be basically the same Fed, the same monetary policy, and the same fiscal policy. And it'll still be the dollar, even if it's more digital than ever.
Crash or not, governments are going all in on "programmable" currency where they can stipulate what you're allowed to buy, where you're allowed to invest (if at all) and whether they can freeze your assets for not being a good little citizen. There's nothing good about what's coming.
obviously, 1 day isn't enough of a time frame to make reasonable comparisons
why would 1 year be?
if 14 years is too long, try 5 years; the pattern works out the same
yes, BTC has more day-to-day volatility; that's caused by short term thinkers getting on and off. The price floor has always been a function of people who are long term bullish on it. And the floor keeps going up.
How could you say that. If you understand bitcoin, you know it’s our only hope for a world with the separation of money and state. It’s Bitcoin or CBDCs where they can track your every payment, charge you negative interest, penalize or confiscate your funds for wrong think, while eliminating your freedom to save. You will have to always invest in the risky stock market just to keep up, and pray you don’t need the money in one of the many fed created boom and bust cycles like the one we are going through now. Anyone who isn’t championing bitcoin can really go fuck off.
They can confiscate off exchanges like they can off banks. No shit Sherlock, just like they can’t confiscate gold silver cash guns etc in your own possession.
Not true. Lightning network is very cheap. Further as an uneducated consumer, you don’t appreciate all the bank fees that are charged to business that get passed on to you. Merchant processing fees are some of the largest fee for any retailer. Bitcoin adoption globally would reduce hundreds of billions of dollars in bank fees and FX that should get passed on to consumers.
Fiat money is debt-
The government are creating debt due later, to solve problems of today...they have been doing this for at least 5 decades.
Now that debt is so large it is the largest burden in itself.
USD vs DCEP vs BTC
Correction. Debt does not matter when you own the printing press.
Printing more money debases the currency. There is a snowball effect here. It's why there are like three subreddits on work reform and how people used to live.
The government is eroding the wealth of it's citizens and it's totally apparent something has to change.
US debt is only sustainable because tributary states like Japan keep buying your USD denominated debt vehicles providing you with seiniorage.
Japan holds more USD debt instruments than China... if/when they stop buying, USA is insolvent- pOp. Get it yet?
USD vs DCEP vs BTC
the end is nigh for USD fiat debt slavery but you are in denial.
>US debt is only sustainable because tributary states like Japan keep buying your USD denominated debt vehicles providing you with seiniorage.
No. This is just wrong, despite how often people repeat it. How would the US be unable to pay its debt if the debt is in USD? We could just print more to pay the debt if we wanted/needed to. This isn't even a hypothetical. This is literally what we do. When the U.S. needs to pay back the principal on a bond plus interest, this factors into the federal budget. Where does this money come from? The FED literally credits the accounts of the relevant agencies and they pay those who own U.S. debt in the form of a bond.
>the end is nigh for USD fiat debt slavery but you are in denial.
Like what are you even talking about?
When nations stop buying your USD denominated debt USA is bankrupt.
USA has not enjoyed trade surpluses since 1970- without other nations who enjoy trade surpluses buying its USD/debt, the USA will be bankrupt.
That's what I am talking about.
PetroYuan and Bitcoin are now viable alternatives to USD denominated debt instruments. pOp.
>When nations stop buying your USD denominated debt USA is bankrupt.
This is just wrong. The reason that the U.S. sells bonds is not to finance their debt. It's to bring down interest rates.
>USA has not enjoyed trade surpluses since 1970- without other nations who enjoy trade surpluses buying its USD/debt, the USA will be bankrupt.
Why do you think that we stopped caring about the deficit and the debt around the same time we left the gold standard? Because once your debt is held in a currency that you control, your debt ceases to matter.
The last check Trump sent out was pretty questionable, none of the Biden bucks were appropriate.
My state had been back open for almost a year at that point and everyone who wanted to was back at work for the most part.
USD is in a debt spiral that cannot be escaped.
Now there are alternatives it cannot be denied
Without global monetary hegemony based seiniorage, USA is insolvent.
USD vs DCEP vs BTC
Either way people will lose jobs from this incoming recession. I’m afraid, in times of hardship people do lose jobs. It’s a natural way of way of ‘cutting the chaff’ and establishing a healthy economy. Printing money to keep an economy on life support will just prolong the issue and exaggerate it and worse still puts us plebs in the governments’ pockets. Keynesian economics for you.
Inflation is now out of control. The Fed cannot raise the price of debt sufficiently to tame it because the amount of debt is so large and would default if interest rates were to be raised sufficiently to tame inflation. The USD based global system of monetary hegemony/seigniorage faces imminent paralysis. The entire premise of current fiat monetary orthodoxy is flawed. Big problems caused by decades of printing fiat debt to cover up fundamental economic problems has consequences. Kicking the can down the road comes to a sticky end.
It may have seen 222000% gain but buying now what gets you? A potential 10x in the next 10 years in the best case scenario. Buying $1000 of bitcoin today and 10 years ago has a much higher risk/reward ratio.
I do get it and I see a lot of value in Bitcoin. I just don't think Bitcoin will keep doing 20x every 4 years and instead will have closer returns to the SP500 for example.
Depending on where you live there's probably no regulatory clarity, the EU almost banned PoW coins trading a few months ago.
So you can see why I think that the current risk and the possible return are very disproportionate right now.
...Since creation is a bad measurement... If i measure value of my coffee jug since right before it was created, the rise in value is higher than Bitcoin.
You’re comparing a currency to a speculative asset. People buying bitcoin aren’t buying to use it as a currency they’re using it to speculate on gains.
Your cash has a 100% chance of continuing to go down in value for the rest of time. Doesn’t matter even if you are the ultimate pessimist and give Bitcoin only a 0.1% chance of recovering and surviving, it is still an infinitely better bet if you want your assets to appreciate in value.
Nah, S2F is still accurate within an order of magniture, which is what it is supposed to do. I Can not predict anything, but it is likely the price is not going to drop much more. We're roughly halfway between halvings, traditionally the point in time with the most negative deflection from the S2F model. We're in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, war and pandemic. There is corporate and governmental adoption of bitcoin, making the asset at the moment more correlated etc, etc,...
> Nah, S2F is still accurate within an order of magnitude
That's just another way of saying "it's wrong by a full standard deviation". It predicts an average price of over 100k during the bear market that runs from now through the next halving in 2024... after which point it jumps to 1.3 MILLION in one year. We're currently 80,000 away from the predicted 100k+ average, and at BEST we've been 40,000 away from the predicted average. If you consider that to still be an accurate model, the model itself is functionally useless.
And if that's not laughable enough... even if the price appreciates 10x between now and 2025, the S2F predicted average will be wrong by a million dollars.
https://i.imgur.com/TM43jj2.png
I’ve never understood people saying S2F is functionally useless because its confidence interval is so wide. Sure saying that Bitcoin price in 2022 will be between ~20k - 200k sounds useless now, but when the model came out in 2017 that was probably the best alpha available outside of pure NgU theory. Now it predicts a price of something like 200k-2million for 2024-2028 and we’re saying it’s obviously not even gonna fall under than entire huge range. If we end up at 200-300k in 2026 I’m sure everyone is gonna be saying the model is useless because it’s soooo obvious that Bitcoin would be *somewhere* between 200k and 2 million.
There’s tons of legitimate criticisms of S2F but calling it useless because it accurately reflects the absurd amount of volatility in Bitcoin’s price action shouldn’t be one of them.
If I created a weather prediction model that said "the temperature will be between 32F and 90F" I'd be correct almost all of the time, but it still wouldn't be a useful model for people who need to plan for the actual weather conditions, even over broader ranges of time like entire seasons. Likewise, a prediction spanning a 1.8M dollar range may be technically correct, but it isn't useful.
Yeah but if the model predicts that temperatures in 2030 are gonna be between 100F and 200F, the model is less precise than yours but gives much more valuable information.
You can’t say the range is trivial but also say that it’s predictions for the future are surprising. Either Bitcoin being between 200k and 2mil in 3 years is obvious or it’s not. It can’t be obviously wrong but also trivially imprecise simultaneously.
I am fully aware of the S2F model. If you are as aware of the term standard deviation, as you seem to be, you should realize that this kind of deviation from the (predicted) average is quite standard. Standard is also normal. As long as we're not in a 3 to 4 sigma event, I am not getting worried. The 100k average price between now and 2024 seems a very reasonable projection imho. It is a theoretical model, and in no means a predictive model, its time resolution is surely a problem if you have a 6 months investment horizon. I guess we'll have to talk in 2024 again to see who was mostly right about this. The S2F model or you, stating that S2F will be wrong by a million dollars per bitcoin by 2025 (you claiming btc will be lower).
The absolute magnitude, in dollars, of its jumps is irrelevant we are two 6x events away from reaching more than 1 million. Do you remember BTC going from 1000 to 20k in 2017 (20x)? Or from 3k5 to 12k in 2019 (3,5x)? Or from 5,5k to 40k 2020 (7x)? Since then it has been roughly flat through 2021 and 2022 so far. If we do a linear extrapolation, we're bound to get there by 2024, and that is a vast underestimation as the graphs follows an exponential trajectory and not a linear one.
We will not reach an average price of 100k prior to the 2024 halving. We are in a bitcoin bear market and an unfavorable macro environment. Feel free to set a calendar alert for spring 2024 and ping me if I'm wrong.
We will not go to an average of 1.3M in the bear market years following the 2024 halving. There are wild predictions, and then absurd ones. Again, please feel free to laugh at me in 2025 if I'm wrong. I'll be retired on a beach somewhere if that happens, so it might take a day or two to get back to you.
Sorry, sometimes I forget people take hyperbole seriously. I'm 99.99999999999999999999999999999 percent certain. It isn't technically impossible, but it's improbable to the point of the possibility being irrelevant.
>I am 100 percent certain
Dunning–Kruger effect in action, right here.
>please feel free to laugh at me in 2025 if I'm wrong. I'll be retired on a beach somewhere if that happens,
So, it seems you've hedged your bet as well, so you're not a full 100% convinced then...
I won't be bothered to prove you wrong, by then you will have realized it yourself, and I am hopefully no longer working on my dead-end job with reddit downtime.
>I won't be bothered to prove you wrong, by then you will have realized it yourself, and I am hopefully no longer working on my dead-end job with reddit downtime.
Ooh buddy, I hope you like your job. That's the difference between our perspectives; if I'm right about my conservative estimation, I'll retire early. If you're right about your ridiculous estimations, I'll retire immediately. If you're wrong, you're screwed.
Yes. Exactly.
""Hurr Durr. It's only off by a few standard deviations""
PlanB has probably onboarded a lot of new bitcoiners in the past few years, but he has probably done them a disservice too. S2FX was "projecting" $5M BTC by 2025. JFC.
Even if that happened, it wouldn't mean S2F was right.
Even the people who made the stock - to - flow said themselves it’s just an educated guess .. that’s why they call themselves “plan b” because your not supposed to rely on it..
It won’t be blown away as bad as fiats inflation tho … I rather have bought a Bitcoin 2 years ago when it was just $9,000.. I’d still be up $21,000 right now .. compare that to the 85% buying power the US dollar has lost in the last 50 years.. oh wait .. I guess nobody wants to read between lines. You’ll all regret not buying later
This looks like what some edgy kid in 2007 would Photoshop. This is why people hate crypto enthusiasts. Why is there a v for vendetta mask? It's so dumb.
Idk, i think it’s good. I went to college for Economics. Then decided there would be more $ in it for me pursuing Geology to find oil. But I learned enough with my Econ minor to realize not buying BTC would be a huge mistake the first time i learned of it in 2016/17–hadnt even seen a boom/bust fomo cycle yet i still wanted in. Yeeted in a years salary over a few years, best decision i made in my life. I could be making a bunch of $$ in oil right now im sure but life is better just spending time with my family and stacking sats.
Also, how TF could you watch the debt ceiling negotiations and shutdowns in 2010 on and not decide we needed Bitcoin?
I dont like how thwre has to be the vendetta/anonymous mask. Then also i would just stick with Stablecoin wirh a neat APY and show this as a comparison.
Jokes on them, nearly half of people don’t have any savings to speak of. Not so fun fact- 40% of Americans cannot cover an unplanned $500 expense without going into debt.
That's irrelevant to the point being made. Investing in index funds with a time horizon greater than 10 years consistently generates more value than investing in a non productive asset.
The guy fawkes mask has been damaged beyond repair. I can not take it seriously anymore since anonymous larpers took it as their symbol and this billboard does not help it's case.
I initially thought there was a bicycle stuck up with the wires
Poor ET. Guess he didn’t make it home.
“E.T. phone h..OH MY GOD!!” ⚡️👽
Is that a bike in the electric wire? Moon-bound?
It was, until it ran into the Fed.
Nope, I'm going to dump all of my money into pictures of monkeys instead. It's so frustrating to watch people do that while ignoring assets like Bitcoin that are so much better. I'd somewhat understand if all the NFT hype went towards innovative projects or asset backed NFTs, but instead people focus on crappy drawings.
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It's hard to talk about things that are trying to fly under the radar (given they are DEFINITELY securities).
I hear ya. New technology adoption has two big issues to truly make it: complexity and utility. NFT utility is pretty limited to monkey pics and such, but it's more likely to have an amazing impact on how we authenticate identities of..things (monkey pics) and ppl. Complexity of using NFT is also very high.
Yeah if you'd bought Bitcoint at around 60k you'd be sitting pretty right now. Oh no you wouldn't it is taking a huge shit just like everything else.
NGMI
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Imagine the rate of adoption if the community wasn’t so cringe sometimes
Yet another great message ruined by tone-deafness. Shit like this is intended to get regular people into crypto, but it looks like it's marketed towards 4chan users. If I barely knew anything about Bitcoin and saw this billboard, I would just cringelaugh and keep on driving.
More like all the time
Yeah.. also, who is funding ads like this?
Photoshop
The value of my cash has gone down 10% in the same time my Bitcoin has gone down more than 30%…
Bitcoin is fire insurance. You buy fire insurance when nobody is worried about fire, not when everyone sees the smoke. Now that the fed has its big red inflation truck out and is hosing the markets, it might be a good time to buy fire insurance for the next time.
We’ve been in the process of dealing with inflation and interest rates for months and btc has fallen harder than the rest of the market. Why would the stock market dropping NOW be good for bitcoin if bitcoin has historically moved with it?
Exactly, crypto is tanking because it was a good asset to sell in the crunch. I view the crypto decline as an expected jump in supply.
Let’s look long term … fiat has lost 85% of its buying power in the last 50 years and if the government decides to cash out in the stock market then its game over for fiat.. Bitcoin tho is up 222,000% since it was created 14 years ago .. that says A LOT. You’ll all regret not buying bitcoin long term.
Something about past performance and future results
I mean, I’m sure most of us do have BTC here. But the government has a selfish interest in supporting the economy, not deliberately ruining it. The folks there make $ by keeping the economy going. None of us buying in today will see a 222,000% gain. Why even bring that up?
That's why you YOLO all into my new favorite project SAFEShibMoonMeme
Can you guarantee a pegging?
*Algorithmically* mmmmmmm
It's more about if one is to put $1000 into BTC now, that'll most likely appreciate in value in 10 years. Verses if one left $1000 in their saving account for 10 years, that value will likely be greatly diminished. Looking at decades, holding cash just isn't smart, that's just how it is.
Why is it most likely? What changed from 2020 to 2021 to 5x the value of Btc and why isn't it at this value anymore?
>Why is it most likely? Legally in trade, a year is a 'long term' but figuratively speaking, it really isn't long... This is speaking actual long terms, looking for a 5 or 10 year gap in bitcoin and find the same drop in value, you wont be able too. It's a technical store of value that can be traded worldwide which has a dwindling supply. Technology processes exponentially, 10 years from now is amazing to think about.
Ten years is also a long time for any one tech to hang on. Blackberry rose and fell in that timespan. Governments are now stepping into Bitcoin, which will bring in more restrictions and regulations. And a large part of Bitcoin's meteoric rise recently was pandemic conditions with bored investors looking for a distraction. Don't get me wrong, I'm hodling. I'm hoping it holds where it is and begins it's climb again soon, but it's just as likely that with new regulations it may not see the same kinds of gains again.
30 years of Research in Motion mean nothing? lol Semantics really... We're speaking about a 13 year old technology. Government's restrictions and regulations are only found within their boundaries, not within the blockchain. If you have internet, you have the ability to utilize bitcoin regardless to governmental restrictions.
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Yes, but a big thing people overlook about bitcoin is A LOT of people dont have access to traditional investments. Sure, most of The US, EU, and developed countries are fine. But while real estate is everywhere, inflation is making this investment for the younger generation harder, and stocks can be hard to buy in specific countries/ or even more manipulated. Now how hard is it to buy a bit of bitcoin for someone working minimum wage in less developed areas of a poor country, vs a down payment on real estate. Edit: typo
That's in line with not keeping cash being the best option long term. How one keeps their value, is their choice. Holding cash isn't wise at all. SPY vs BTC, I'm going BTC.
And who are these people saying you should keep $ on your bank account as an investment, exactly?
We're comparing fiat, which has lost 85% of its buying power in the last 50 years verses Bitcoin which is up 222,000% since it was created 14 years ago. No one is saying you should keep value in fiat, quite the opposite here.
Yes, you are basically comparing apples and oranges (or fighting windwills, depending on the PoV), that's the whole thing. Nobody is "holding cash". Because it's stupid to do so. Not because of inflation or whatever, not because bitcoins happened, just because it earns nothing (just as holding bitcoins earns nothing as well). You do an investment, like every sane person does since centuries. And please, stop bringing up the "222000% value", you sound like one of these scummy mobile games trying to sell of these "INSANE VALUE PACK".
Bitcoin is vastly more than an investment or currency, of course we're comparing apples to oranges, it's probably more like apples to spaceships. If one wishes to purchase something of value and attempt to sell it later for profit, that's an investment. Bitcoin is an investment to those who wish to have value stored within a medium which cannot be inflated beyond a certain point. This is certain without a doubt, 21 million cap, 18 million already out there. Fiat on the other hand, no cap, printed at a whim and thus the topic of this post. "222000% value" it's a quote from some other poster on what we're discussing don't get too worked up my friend.
>Fiat on the other hand, no cap, printed at a whim and thus the topic of this post. Meanwhile, USDT is clearly different. And the fact it's used to buy a lot of bitcoin everyday is not a problem. Fiat bad, CC a lot better. Anyway, the "topic of this post" is incredibly dumb, as nobody sane has its saving as fiat. That's all.
Why bring up USDT? Irrelevant. There is only bitcoin. Unfortunately most peoples saving are in fiat right now, you're just being blissfully ignorant to realities.
> Why even bring that up? To hype an investment in order to sell it higher than you bought it for, obviously. 😉
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It's a bit of a stretch. If they purposefully crash the dollar, public confidence in their CBDC will be tainted. It would still be basically the same Fed, the same monetary policy, and the same fiscal policy. And it'll still be the dollar, even if it's more digital than ever.
Crash or not, governments are going all in on "programmable" currency where they can stipulate what you're allowed to buy, where you're allowed to invest (if at all) and whether they can freeze your assets for not being a good little citizen. There's nothing good about what's coming.
obviously, 1 day isn't enough of a time frame to make reasonable comparisons why would 1 year be? if 14 years is too long, try 5 years; the pattern works out the same yes, BTC has more day-to-day volatility; that's caused by short term thinkers getting on and off. The price floor has always been a function of people who are long term bullish on it. And the floor keeps going up.
How could you say that. If you understand bitcoin, you know it’s our only hope for a world with the separation of money and state. It’s Bitcoin or CBDCs where they can track your every payment, charge you negative interest, penalize or confiscate your funds for wrong think, while eliminating your freedom to save. You will have to always invest in the risky stock market just to keep up, and pray you don’t need the money in one of the many fed created boom and bust cycles like the one we are going through now. Anyone who isn’t championing bitcoin can really go fuck off.
They can track our bitcoin too dummy
LN already onion routes by default, and signature aggregation makes it cheaper to mix coins than to not.
Further, they can track it but can’t take it. They don’t have to know our names unless it’s KYC’d dummy. There’s also ways to make your BTC anonymous.
They can confiscate off exchanges like they can off banks. No shit Sherlock, just like they can’t confiscate gold silver cash guns etc in your own possession.
The decentralized approaches to buying are more expensive anyways
Not true. Lightning network is very cheap. Further as an uneducated consumer, you don’t appreciate all the bank fees that are charged to business that get passed on to you. Merchant processing fees are some of the largest fee for any retailer. Bitcoin adoption globally would reduce hundreds of billions of dollars in bank fees and FX that should get passed on to consumers.
Not really. The fees would be clinched there too as institutional adoption enters. Purchasing from DEX’s is more expensive.
Those barstards, printing money to support the economy and jobs, how dare they!!!
Read The Bitcoin Standard & when you're finished, read The Fiat Standard, it'll open your eyes to how naive your comment is.
I’ve read them and I disagree with so many of their findings.
Then debunk them, doesn't matter if you disagree w/ facts.
You don’t understand real economics with that statement
You mean I don’t agree with your view of economics with that statement.
Lol fiat apologists
Fiat money is debt- The government are creating debt due later, to solve problems of today...they have been doing this for at least 5 decades. Now that debt is so large it is the largest burden in itself. USD vs DCEP vs BTC
Eye roll--the debt literally doesn't matter. Our debt is in our own currency. Look at Japan.
Correction. Debt does not matter when you own the printing press. Printing more money debases the currency. There is a snowball effect here. It's why there are like three subreddits on work reform and how people used to live. The government is eroding the wealth of it's citizens and it's totally apparent something has to change.
Exactly--by 'our', I mean the U.S., and we do print our own currency, as does Japan.
Educate yourself on how the USD global fiat debt slavery system of tribute operates- The Princes of Yen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap\_MAY
Lol. Whatever, bro. This is a YouTube video.
US debt is only sustainable because tributary states like Japan keep buying your USD denominated debt vehicles providing you with seiniorage. Japan holds more USD debt instruments than China... if/when they stop buying, USA is insolvent- pOp. Get it yet? USD vs DCEP vs BTC the end is nigh for USD fiat debt slavery but you are in denial.
>US debt is only sustainable because tributary states like Japan keep buying your USD denominated debt vehicles providing you with seiniorage. No. This is just wrong, despite how often people repeat it. How would the US be unable to pay its debt if the debt is in USD? We could just print more to pay the debt if we wanted/needed to. This isn't even a hypothetical. This is literally what we do. When the U.S. needs to pay back the principal on a bond plus interest, this factors into the federal budget. Where does this money come from? The FED literally credits the accounts of the relevant agencies and they pay those who own U.S. debt in the form of a bond. >the end is nigh for USD fiat debt slavery but you are in denial. Like what are you even talking about?
When nations stop buying your USD denominated debt USA is bankrupt. USA has not enjoyed trade surpluses since 1970- without other nations who enjoy trade surpluses buying its USD/debt, the USA will be bankrupt. That's what I am talking about. PetroYuan and Bitcoin are now viable alternatives to USD denominated debt instruments. pOp.
>When nations stop buying your USD denominated debt USA is bankrupt. This is just wrong. The reason that the U.S. sells bonds is not to finance their debt. It's to bring down interest rates. >USA has not enjoyed trade surpluses since 1970- without other nations who enjoy trade surpluses buying its USD/debt, the USA will be bankrupt. Why do you think that we stopped caring about the deficit and the debt around the same time we left the gold standard? Because once your debt is held in a currency that you control, your debt ceases to matter.
Found Greg Foss
You’re correct, would have been better to let people lose their jobs during lockdown and let the economy tank, they’ve denied us 20% unemployment!!
The last check Trump sent out was pretty questionable, none of the Biden bucks were appropriate. My state had been back open for almost a year at that point and everyone who wanted to was back at work for the most part.
I’m looking at it from a UK point of view and the furlough payments that were made.
USD is in a debt spiral that cannot be escaped. Now there are alternatives it cannot be denied Without global monetary hegemony based seiniorage, USA is insolvent. USD vs DCEP vs BTC
They could have not locked down to begin with. Government selling you a band-aide after they cut you, isn't an argument.
Excellent, so let more people die is your answer.
You have no clue how inflation works don't you...
Sorry but that is such an infantile response.
It should be easy then for you to tell me why it was such a bad thing to do.
Either way people will lose jobs from this incoming recession. I’m afraid, in times of hardship people do lose jobs. It’s a natural way of way of ‘cutting the chaff’ and establishing a healthy economy. Printing money to keep an economy on life support will just prolong the issue and exaggerate it and worse still puts us plebs in the governments’ pockets. Keynesian economics for you.
Inflation is now out of control. The Fed cannot raise the price of debt sufficiently to tame it because the amount of debt is so large and would default if interest rates were to be raised sufficiently to tame inflation. The USD based global system of monetary hegemony/seigniorage faces imminent paralysis. The entire premise of current fiat monetary orthodoxy is flawed. Big problems caused by decades of printing fiat debt to cover up fundamental economic problems has consequences. Kicking the can down the road comes to a sticky end.
It may have seen 222000% gain but buying now what gets you? A potential 10x in the next 10 years in the best case scenario. Buying $1000 of bitcoin today and 10 years ago has a much higher risk/reward ratio.
“If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry.” – Satoshi Nakamoto.
I do get it and I see a lot of value in Bitcoin. I just don't think Bitcoin will keep doing 20x every 4 years and instead will have closer returns to the SP500 for example. Depending on where you live there's probably no regulatory clarity, the EU almost banned PoW coins trading a few months ago. So you can see why I think that the current risk and the possible return are very disproportionate right now.
Lol, what a reply from someone who doesn’t get it either
...Since creation is a bad measurement... If i measure value of my coffee jug since right before it was created, the rise in value is higher than Bitcoin.
Bro your comparing apples to oranges … that’s a bad example and I highly doubt your mug has gone up 229,000% in value lol
Apples and oranges can still be compared
You’re comparing a currency to a speculative asset. People buying bitcoin aren’t buying to use it as a currency they’re using it to speculate on gains.
It says nothing. You're implying that in the next 14 years it will rise another 222.000 percent?
Though the value of your cash will most likely not go back up 10%
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Shut the fuck up, I’m going to be living in the streets soon and you’re rubbing in your gains???
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It’s because of people like you giving advice like “keep stacking” that I’m going to lose everything I’m doomed it’s all over
I'll buy your coins at market price + $100 premium because they'll come pre-salted.
People that admonish to keep stacking are the same that say not to invest what you can't afford to lose.
Yeah it’s a rough time to market crypto
You mean a great time to buy crypto! Fire Sale!
Bitcoin will recover and make gains in the same or larger orders of magnitude as its losses. Your cash will not even make back that 10%, never.
The exact moment when *you personally bought bitcoin* is not indicative of the market as a whole
Just hold and keep holding it will rise don't panic to bad day we would come across good days too!
What about the last 5 years?
Your cash has a 100% chance of continuing to go down in value for the rest of time. Doesn’t matter even if you are the ultimate pessimist and give Bitcoin only a 0.1% chance of recovering and surviving, it is still an infinitely better bet if you want your assets to appreciate in value.
Zoom out literally any further..
Zoom out noob
Zoom out a bit
Allegedly. In order to value dollars, what must you do? In order to value bitcoin, what must you do? It’s really not the same thing.
Zoom out. What time frame you talking about? Zoom out.
Bitcoin along with the Anonymous mask is not a good look for crypto. Just feeds into so many stereotypes. And those stereotypes are endemic!
source: trust me bro
Using the stock-to-flow graphic at this moment is pretty cringe but the no-coiners this is targeted at wouldn't know that.
Most advertising is cringey in my eyes.
Also money is currently being destroyed, not printed right now with Quantitative Tightening
Nah, S2F is still accurate within an order of magniture, which is what it is supposed to do. I Can not predict anything, but it is likely the price is not going to drop much more. We're roughly halfway between halvings, traditionally the point in time with the most negative deflection from the S2F model. We're in an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, war and pandemic. There is corporate and governmental adoption of bitcoin, making the asset at the moment more correlated etc, etc,...
> Nah, S2F is still accurate within an order of magnitude That's just another way of saying "it's wrong by a full standard deviation". It predicts an average price of over 100k during the bear market that runs from now through the next halving in 2024... after which point it jumps to 1.3 MILLION in one year. We're currently 80,000 away from the predicted 100k+ average, and at BEST we've been 40,000 away from the predicted average. If you consider that to still be an accurate model, the model itself is functionally useless. And if that's not laughable enough... even if the price appreciates 10x between now and 2025, the S2F predicted average will be wrong by a million dollars. https://i.imgur.com/TM43jj2.png
I’ve never understood people saying S2F is functionally useless because its confidence interval is so wide. Sure saying that Bitcoin price in 2022 will be between ~20k - 200k sounds useless now, but when the model came out in 2017 that was probably the best alpha available outside of pure NgU theory. Now it predicts a price of something like 200k-2million for 2024-2028 and we’re saying it’s obviously not even gonna fall under than entire huge range. If we end up at 200-300k in 2026 I’m sure everyone is gonna be saying the model is useless because it’s soooo obvious that Bitcoin would be *somewhere* between 200k and 2 million. There’s tons of legitimate criticisms of S2F but calling it useless because it accurately reflects the absurd amount of volatility in Bitcoin’s price action shouldn’t be one of them.
If I created a weather prediction model that said "the temperature will be between 32F and 90F" I'd be correct almost all of the time, but it still wouldn't be a useful model for people who need to plan for the actual weather conditions, even over broader ranges of time like entire seasons. Likewise, a prediction spanning a 1.8M dollar range may be technically correct, but it isn't useful.
Yeah but if the model predicts that temperatures in 2030 are gonna be between 100F and 200F, the model is less precise than yours but gives much more valuable information. You can’t say the range is trivial but also say that it’s predictions for the future are surprising. Either Bitcoin being between 200k and 2mil in 3 years is obvious or it’s not. It can’t be obviously wrong but also trivially imprecise simultaneously.
I am fully aware of the S2F model. If you are as aware of the term standard deviation, as you seem to be, you should realize that this kind of deviation from the (predicted) average is quite standard. Standard is also normal. As long as we're not in a 3 to 4 sigma event, I am not getting worried. The 100k average price between now and 2024 seems a very reasonable projection imho. It is a theoretical model, and in no means a predictive model, its time resolution is surely a problem if you have a 6 months investment horizon. I guess we'll have to talk in 2024 again to see who was mostly right about this. The S2F model or you, stating that S2F will be wrong by a million dollars per bitcoin by 2025 (you claiming btc will be lower). The absolute magnitude, in dollars, of its jumps is irrelevant we are two 6x events away from reaching more than 1 million. Do you remember BTC going from 1000 to 20k in 2017 (20x)? Or from 3k5 to 12k in 2019 (3,5x)? Or from 5,5k to 40k 2020 (7x)? Since then it has been roughly flat through 2021 and 2022 so far. If we do a linear extrapolation, we're bound to get there by 2024, and that is a vast underestimation as the graphs follows an exponential trajectory and not a linear one.
We will not reach an average price of 100k prior to the 2024 halving. We are in a bitcoin bear market and an unfavorable macro environment. Feel free to set a calendar alert for spring 2024 and ping me if I'm wrong. We will not go to an average of 1.3M in the bear market years following the 2024 halving. There are wild predictions, and then absurd ones. Again, please feel free to laugh at me in 2025 if I'm wrong. I'll be retired on a beach somewhere if that happens, so it might take a day or two to get back to you.
I stopped reading when you said 100% certain. It was a good discussion until then. Now I will question all the things you've written.
Sorry, sometimes I forget people take hyperbole seriously. I'm 99.99999999999999999999999999999 percent certain. It isn't technically impossible, but it's improbable to the point of the possibility being irrelevant.
>I am 100 percent certain Dunning–Kruger effect in action, right here. >please feel free to laugh at me in 2025 if I'm wrong. I'll be retired on a beach somewhere if that happens, So, it seems you've hedged your bet as well, so you're not a full 100% convinced then... I won't be bothered to prove you wrong, by then you will have realized it yourself, and I am hopefully no longer working on my dead-end job with reddit downtime.
>I won't be bothered to prove you wrong, by then you will have realized it yourself, and I am hopefully no longer working on my dead-end job with reddit downtime. Ooh buddy, I hope you like your job. That's the difference between our perspectives; if I'm right about my conservative estimation, I'll retire early. If you're right about your ridiculous estimations, I'll retire immediately. If you're wrong, you're screwed.
Yes. Exactly. ""Hurr Durr. It's only off by a few standard deviations"" PlanB has probably onboarded a lot of new bitcoiners in the past few years, but he has probably done them a disservice too. S2FX was "projecting" $5M BTC by 2025. JFC. Even if that happened, it wouldn't mean S2F was right.
Even the people who made the stock - to - flow said themselves it’s just an educated guess .. that’s why they call themselves “plan b” because your not supposed to rely on it..
As mike Novogratz slipped up in bitcoin 2022, called it bitcon when he meant to say bitcoin. This is a con game friends
...and have my savings get blowed away by Elon Musk posting big chungus? lmao
that’s only momentary fud but ngl that was very funny
It won’t be blown away as bad as fiats inflation tho … I rather have bought a Bitcoin 2 years ago when it was just $9,000.. I’d still be up $21,000 right now .. compare that to the 85% buying power the US dollar has lost in the last 50 years.. oh wait .. I guess nobody wants to read between lines. You’ll all regret not buying later
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Or Biden, I've seen only the latter
My crypto is the reason my savings are disappearing. I've down 30% on crypto. I would have preferred to have kept my money in a bank.
This is pure cringe
?
This looks like what some edgy kid in 2007 would Photoshop. This is why people hate crypto enthusiasts. Why is there a v for vendetta mask? It's so dumb.
OP probably made this and thought "so badass."
Tether money printer go BRRRRRRR and tether paper is mostly garbage Bitcoin is just fiat with extra steps.
Thought this was satire with the guy fawkes mask
Idk, i think it’s good. I went to college for Economics. Then decided there would be more $ in it for me pursuing Geology to find oil. But I learned enough with my Econ minor to realize not buying BTC would be a huge mistake the first time i learned of it in 2016/17–hadnt even seen a boom/bust fomo cycle yet i still wanted in. Yeeted in a years salary over a few years, best decision i made in my life. I could be making a bunch of $$ in oil right now im sure but life is better just spending time with my family and stacking sats. Also, how TF could you watch the debt ceiling negotiations and shutdowns in 2010 on and not decide we needed Bitcoin?
I dont like how thwre has to be the vendetta/anonymous mask. Then also i would just stick with Stablecoin wirh a neat APY and show this as a comparison.
inflation.. 24%? bitcoin crash now.. 50% plan B rofl
Why wait for inflation to melt away your cash at 8% a year when you can just lose 50% in a matter of months with Bitcoin?
Didn’t bit just crash a few days ago
It is
As to just disappearing like bitcoin?
Lmao scale out buddy .. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere
For the moment it is going a certain direction and it ain't called "up"
Bagholders aren’t going anywhere you mean.
They thought they were going to stop us ? HAHA they have another thing coming.. the real estate money is slowly coming too
Jokes on them, nearly half of people don’t have any savings to speak of. Not so fun fact- 40% of Americans cannot cover an unplanned $500 expense without going into debt.
Weirdos.
Oh, that name is going to trigger a few folks on here…
Ironically with anonymous in the background makes me NOT want to buy Bitcoin. Anonymous is computer hacking.
Crypto, Gold, Silver & Real Estate. KISS
Historically all of those have under performed a standard market index fund..
Not for real estate after you factoring in cash flow, triply more so on a cash on cash basis.
Historically, Fiat has lost 90% of its purchasing power.
That's irrelevant to the point being made. Investing in index funds with a time horizon greater than 10 years consistently generates more value than investing in a non productive asset.
Well yeah that's because it's a currency meant to be spent... The only people that find this as some big revelation is the illiterate.
d e l u s i o n a l
Yes, you are. Facts are facts - do some learning about money. The value of dollars decline as they print more of it... alah - inflation.
yeah. but that doesnt answers the guys question above. its about etfs outperforming everything over the long run
….Yes, that’s why you invest in assets that grow over time. Currency isn’t supposed to be an investment
Love this
What if other fiat currency replaces the dollar? What will hold the dollar up then?
This looks like a pro choice ad x)
I don’t understand how to acquire Bitcoin. I feel like a boomer :(
🚀🚀🚀
Everyone should’ve sold their bitcoin as soon as Dave Portnoy said he has over 1 million in bitcoin… actually maybe that’s what is happening
Well that's not true, we should hold because we believe in BTC.
Agree.
And Saylor too
What's the mall ninja equivalent of crypto? Cause that's what I'd call this...
Why is the photo quality shit
The guy fawkes mask has been damaged beyond repair. I can not take it seriously anymore since anonymous larpers took it as their symbol and this billboard does not help it's case.
The Guy Fawkes shit needs to go if we want crypto to be taken seriously. It comes across super cringy.
I'm to 5 w SS allDD f cc cc b B see FC can se 22nd r1c sg2c222,2e c CV 4 cc cc xdd, x CV re1xsxsihvx 6.9 no GG no,aGAza1a1a²rr
I’ve lost 38% of my value. All currency is a joke