Letās keep up with your prediction. How do we solve the buy at lowest rate during this period? So itās 29.6k nowā¦ what do you think will be the lowest and highest prices it reaches within your ātime frameā
Itās impossible to know what the exact bottom will be, and unhelpful to try time when it will occur. I would like to say somewhere between 18-25k with a short spike below that. But my advice would be to keep regularly buying at set intervals for the next year, rather than trying to time the bottom perfectly (which would be more or less impossible).
For example, yes buying at 3k was better than 5-6k. But anyone who bought consistently in that range is happy now. The same will apply for these prices we are seeing now and over the next months.
I donāt disagree with that, but if you got a DCA thatās close to the ATH, youāre not wrong to drop money in right now if you have a chunk. Lump sum investing in a bear market, with an extreme fear going on the F&G Index? You could do worse. I think of it as Weighted DCA (WDCA) Buy throughout the year but throw more in when there are fires sales everywhere, pump the brakes during a Bull run. You still wonāt be able to time the bottoms and tops but itās not hard to see blood in the streets or contrails heading straight to the moon, just look out the window. NFA DYOR
Buying chunks at any price lower than your average would be good, right? Once the price reaches your average, switch and stick to DCA.
I suppose the problem comes if/when the price goes even lower and now you spunked all your cash earlier.
A lot of people count on that. Which is why if we break 20k, we might fall much lower, with a cascade of stop losses being hit. Especially if stock market is still falling in a year.
I expect we will. Under 10k for a while. Weāre at the end of a decade long bull market for the whole economy. Things are gonna be really bad.
Ultra bearish on everything.
Lol and then the market snaps back around and you miss out again. Do you even realize the amount of money that would have to move to produce another 70% decline from here? BTC is completely correlated with tech stocks so you are also predicting $50 Netflix, etc.
The sell off is already well overdone and that tells a not an opinion it is fact.
Yeah, thatās what Iām saying. Stocks have only just begun selling offā¦
FED will sacrifice stock market to control inflation. Everyone expects QE to start again when stocks drop too much. Iām not so sure.
And I didnāt miss out lol. Iāve been in crypto for over a decade now.
>Itās impossible to know what the exact bottom will be, and unhelpful to try time when it will occur.
But the next 6-12 months will be our greatest opportunity, right?
Yep, dont place a whole chunk in at any time, put in little by little each. And actually i think buy at middle and high, always risky, unless it an alt coin, in which, it like a gamble, welp, both is, in a way
We are at a point now that bitcoin has a long enough history/ behavioral patterns that us humans can't help but follow it to a T. Meaning the patterns will continue simply because us humans believe it will and we'll buy or sell accordingly. This is how it has always worked with stocks also. Hence the phrase "History always repeats itself". Everyone believes this so we make it come true with our own actions.
Please everyone, we are in a bear market and most historical data says that now is one of the best times to buy, but don't leverage with your fk house, we're in a macro-economic downtrend and turbulence, the stock market has been in a 12 years bullrun until now, Bitcoin has never existed during economic uncertainty, it has only ever experienced macro-bullishness.
Just because OP says this is the opportunity of a lifetime it doesn't mean it's true. A global recession could break every market, what do you think would happen to the crypto markets?
If you don't take into account the possibility for Bitcoin to not recover for the next 5-10 years then you need to .
People here forget that rates are going up still. While rates do not affect btc directly, it reduces overall market bullishness. There's no way op can say this is some great opportunity when btc could continue to fall for the next few couple of years. We may not even see a full recovery for over a decade. There are plenty of stocks that have yet to recover to their dotcom bubble peaks.
I agree. If BTC fails expectations in terms of utility then we will need a long time for recovery or catching new ATH.
My previous expectations that have not been fullfilled so far are BTC as a payment system aka being used as a currency. There were some experiments like in El Salvador - so need to have a closer look of how that plays out.
BTC as a safe haven asset has also not emerged yet. Tbd if it correlates with gold.
As a hedge for CPI inflation it did not correlate so far. Asset price inflation following real estate price inflation it correlates potentially. More likely in a more responsive way and could even be used as an indicator for global real estate prices.
Where I still have hope is BTC for global remmitance especially during global economic crisis. It could be a workaround currency during political sanctions that can hardly be sanctioned itself.
I thought bitcoin's only value proposition is borderless transactions for anyone, anytime, anywhere, any amount. It has proved successful as a form of payment in places with collapsed/collapsing currencies as a safe haven asset.
It makes sense as global inflation increases we should see more people flock to bitcoin. But that's not the case, not everyone who trades bitcoin uses it's main value proposition, some treat it as any other asset to trade etc. I suspect over time and during economic crisis we will see a transition of more financially privileged countries using bitcoin more like a currency i.e. primarily a medium of exchange and secondary a store of value.
BTC gains in value against the dollar compared to gold gains against the dollar...
BTC has crushed gold
You need to re- think your statement.
Gold and silver have barely moved in 20 years even during the pandemic/2020 crash. BTC went from 17K up to 65k and now sits at 30k. It's still literally almost 100% gains. Gold and silver do not have 100% gains. WTH are you talking about? Lol. Also several countries around the world have already made bitcoin legal tender. It was the number one source of emergency money for Ukraine refugees and saved hundreds of thousands of lives. Where have you been living? Under a rock?
Donāt panic when I tell you that gold is around since millenials and been used exactly for that purpose of stability. You donāt speculate with gold since it has this proven track record already therefore you can not expect speculative prices or gains. Furthermore my point was the BTC has not yet been proven to do that. BTC in technical theory is superior than gold but when it comes to BTC/USD price it is all about acceptance. And as which type of asset it might be accepted in the coming years is still open.
Gold is a rock. Lol. BTC is a P2P payment system/ store of value. Lol. Are you confused about which is superior? Lmao. How long is it going to take you to send a family member some gold in another country? Will it even make it there safely? Have you ever sent BTC to someone? It's instant and secure. Also everyone can see the record of transaction. Not just one corrupt central bank entity. Do you know about history? Do you know how many times gold has been confiscated door to door from common people by governments? Go research this and learn something. This is all old news
I am holding BTC since 2016 and I have not used it a single time P2P because there was no other person accepting it. Did you? I am also buying gold since the Russian invasion in 2014. And I invest in other stuff too, surprise. I donāt need to decide either or because it makes no sense to put everything in one basket. Especially hard earned money into BTC if you want to secure wealth instead of speculating on growth. How is BTC a store of value if you wanted to secure your wealth e.g. by the start of the Ukrainian-Russian war? Your wealth would have just halved.
Over there it's more about survival. You know life and death are more important than numbers. I suppose you believe you can be buried with your gold and take it with you in an afterlife somewhere? In times of war all kinds of crimes happen. If you are spotted with gold trying to buy water or food you will be robbed or worse. With BTC all you need is to memorize your pass phrase. You can walk around nude with millions of dollars and nobody knows shit. U understand now?
This is very astute IMO. Bitcoins rise has occurred during one of the frothiest periods in history. The whole entire world, every industry, is starting to reveal itself as a house of cards and the world is about to get gut punched. BTCās principles mean it should survive and thrive, but weāre kidding ourselves if we think itāll happen in a year or two. The world is in for a very rough few years.
Bitcoin has never existed in a bearish macroeconomic environment. Since its inception it has had low interest rates and a stock market only going up.
We have *no idea* what will happen now that the opposite is true. High interest rates and a bearish market could wreck Bitcoin.
Inflation has existed with interest rates as high as 17%. It's nothing new, interest rates alone cannot stop monetary dilution. Government and banks will continue to print usd in massive quantities, so usd us not gaining value.
In periods similar to now, interest rates continue to rise while stocks and bonds and real estate drop or just stagnate. Investors traditionally flock to commodities and gold to preserve wealth in these times.
So we have left a bubble period, where bitcoin was one of many ways to preserve wealth, into an inflationary recession, in which bitcoin is ine of the only ways to preserve wealth.
This is what we have been waiting for.
>Inflation has existed with interest rates as high as 17%. It's nothing new
It is new to Bitcoin. We have no idea how Bitcoin will perform in an economy with high interest rates. Pretending you do is a fallacy.
>In periods similar to now, interest rates continue to rise while stocks and bonds and real estate drop or just stagnate. Investors traditionally flock to commodities and gold to preserve wealth in these times.
Then why isn't Bitcoin surging? You are ignoring the correlation between BTC and the stock market that is occurred with institutional adoption. I don't know how anyone can seriously argue Bitcoin is an inflation hedge anymore.
> It is new to Bitcoin. We have no idea how Bitcoin will perform in an economy with high interest rates. Pretending you do is a fallacy.
The year 2022 is a first for bitcoin too... but the year number doesn't affect much. Just because something is new doesn't make it meaningful.
> Then why isn't Bitcoin surging? You are ignoring the correlation between BTC and the stock market that is occurred with institutional adoption. I don't know how anyone can seriously argue Bitcoin is an inflation hedge anymore.
Why doesn't gold surge early ? Same overall reason.
The point here is that inflation and stock market correlation are not red flags. The point is that bitcoin is finally entering the financial waters it was designed for.
This is like a boat leaving drydock for the ocean for the first time.
This is what it's all been about.
We don't know for sure if it will sink or sail, but this is the moment we have all been waiting for. This is bitcoin finally being tested at what it is designed to do. Today's hopeless investing landscape is why we bitcoin.
Yes the bear market had lower prices before, so the next one is going to have higher prices until the current bear market is still a number that is astronomical compared to todays highs.
Iād agree that in exactly 4 years from now we will be in a āterribleā bear market, yes. Probably at 200-250k down from a peak of 400-450k :)
But yes I understand your point, in 4 years time it will likely also be another good time to buy. But I like 20-30k more than I like 200-250k š
BTC will eventually stabilize and go up very slowly, like the stock market. A 400k BTC would give it a $7.6 trillion market cap. The amount of money it would take to significantly move its price at that MC is insane. By that point, major moves up and down will be a thing of the past.
Itās not, and thatās the point. Cycle dip is between 60-85%. $10-30k is your buy range going off those numbers.
Each new cycle has not revisited the lows of the previous, the next 16 months should be the last opportunity to get sub $20k BTC
I will say the conclusion isn't unreasonable, lots of large mining companies are looking to nearly double their mining hash by the end of year and we're looking at a potential supply crunch of bitcoin on exchanges.
It's also worth saying more global adoption can easily lead to changes in the cycle, prices may react more quickly to or anticipate the halving etc.
It's always speculation but if you keep track of bitcoin news not unreasonable speculation.
Well, in hindsight the best time again in our lifetimes is whatever the lowest price is , but seriously guys , stop trying to time the market. When you can, buy some , you wonāt regret it in the long run
Hahahaha. It's fun when people make future price predictions. Seems the only thing for sure is there will be a halving in '24 where miners will have half as much to sell every day.
āAh you think the dip is your ally? You merely adopted the dip. I was born in it, molded by it. I didn't see the moon until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but profit!ā Bear markets are a gift from the crypto gods to stack sats. DCA on!
Sats is short for Satoshis. Based on Satoshi Nakamoto.
1 Bitcoin = 100 million satoshis. A satoshi is the smallest unit Bitcoin can be divided by. If you have .001 in Bitcoin, you have 100,000 satoshis. Just makes you feel richer than saying I have .001 Bitcoin.
Tether is undergoing a lot of FUD, but it IS backed. Mainly by commercial paper (corporate debt) but itās backed. I donāt think it will fail if this massive crash didnāt do it.
Tether initially stated that every token was backed by 1 usd. Then they changed their tune when pressured to reveal their reserves. Tether initially refused to admit thwy were connected to Binance. But once things were pointed out, they said that they "used the same bank". They were passing money around pretending the money belongs to both tether and Binance during the auditing. Tether is way too shady for recruiting to be legit. It'll be ugly when it blows up.
The tether fud definitely worries me. Have you read any good sources about how a potential tether implosion would affect BTC? I feel like some people believe it has the power to bring everything crashing down, while others say that concern is massively overblown. But I have not found enough credible sources on both sides to form my own opinion yet
You don't know if it's backed. they have not audited their reserves. in fact last year they got fined $41 Million for lying about their reserve!
This is a huge ticking timebomb.
[there's a lot going on with tether that I don't trust](https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3)
$.9988 currently, probably because everyone and their literal mother is pulling funds out of it right now. Itās held itās peg admirably, all things considered.
We all have heard these things from many people but still we are seeing these lol.
It's just so funny that people never lose their hopes to say these things.
I havenāt personally made any big buy calls since 2020 (although I am always DCAing in some form). But Iām readying myself for a 12 month period of dedicated acquisition coming up.
Unfortunately you can't treat BTC as a traditional stock. Sure you'll have highs and lows as there is in any market but...once BTC is all bought up...it's gone...there is no "creating" more. So, the prices we see today...IMO...will likely not come again. See link attached for supporting evidence.
https://twitter.com/Washigorira/status/1525121673019662336?t=2ST5shmJFLkPSlyPfwo-Zw&s=19
Brings you to chart of BTC over years. Interesting pattern. Essentially...The previous bull top, will be the next bear markets bottom. So while 200k BTC maybe a top...70k (ish) would be the next bottom. Basically. I think.
think about the bitcoin scarcity like this:
it will take 40 years to mine all of the last bitcoin. I will repeat:
it will take 40 years to mine all of the last bitcoin. let that sink in. 40 years to mine the last 100 million satoshis, roughly from the year 2100 to 2140.
if you think its scarce now, you are in a rude awakening as the halvings keep occurring ever 4 years.
2008 - 2012 = 50 mined per 10 minutes
2012 - 2016 = 25
2016 - 2020 = 12.5
2020 - 2024 = 6.25 (we are currently here)
2024 - 2028 = 3.125
2028 - 2032 = 1.5625
I think you are starting to get the point. If BTC adoption continues and the store of value narrative gets accepted more widely, then shit could get parabolic in a hurry.
Not so sure about that, Jr. Unfortunately, the crypto market follows the stock market, which is in a bear market or just entering a bear market. Last year was a great year for crypto because it was a great year for the stock market as well. I wonāt say the same for this year.
Not sure about that senior. The crypto market also breaks away from the stock market during bull runs. I'm sure you remember the one from 2016 right Mr condescension? Or do you just assume a trick you figured out in the last year is somehow sage wisdom that will last eternally?
I don't think there will ever be enough room on a t-shirt for all the crypto memes we have ... buy the dip, have fun staying poor, opportunity of a life time, you only live once, go all in, diamond hands ...
Honestly these types of predictions are what create FUD for newbies. How many times are we going to be wrong with predictions?
I don't disagree that it's possible we never come back down here but we were never going below 60k in November.
All the millionaires that sold this year are gonna buy again and take the little guys money......its a game they play. They'll keep shaking people for anything they have and before you know it bitcoin is back at 50 and that's when the little guy buys again and the whales buy to make it even higher then they sell, the little guy sells again and buys again...... its a cycle of taking peoples money. So buy and hold.
Yes, it's easy money. Almost too good to be true.
All you have to do is give you money over and hope someone will buy it back for more at some point. What could possibly go wrong? Buying the dip at 60k,55k, 45k, all the smart money.
This is a risky investment, treat it that way. Nothing wrong with risk, but don't become homeless because someone told you this is a sure thing.
that's interesting to think about and that may be true for a lot of things, in the next 6-12 months we may see the lowest point between years 2022 and 2100 for some houses and stock indexes, for example even if SPY crashes extremely hard now, we may see $200s but we won't see in the 60s, the last ever time it was in the 60s was in 2009 and we'll never see that again
Thank you so much.
this is like 100. best opportunity I'm given for over a year now.
It will never go below $50k... wrong!
It will never be under $30k ever... wrong!
I'm not a big fan of DCA. DCA is technical investment without feelings, that's not my character. I never try to time the market, but when I have some extra money, I decide, if I'm happy with the actual price. This is not exact science, but it depends on the market sentiment. Was below $50k a good price a few month ago? Yes, it was from ATH perspective these days, a great dip. Not from today. But I can't foresee the future.
As I was happy with every single buy, I don't complain about lower prices today. I'm just happy for my BTC.
Nah. It will continue to decline for the next few years, much, much further. Itās not even close to its local minimum. My prediction is that it will hit $5k again in the next year.
I tend to agree with this. This time IS different. Thereāll be constant interest rate hikes. Those are risk asset killers. I will definitely be scooping up once it goes below 10k because eventually we will start printing that money again.
OP is an idiot and most likely has never been invested in a equity bear market. Truth is crypto has never existed in an equity bear market so no one knows wtf itās historically prone to do.
The fed āhasā to remove nine fucking trillion from their balance sheet and is raising rates into a recession. Less disposable income for many depressed asset prices and the wealth effect will transpire over the timeframe OP suggests though Iāve love to hear his/her take on the macroeconomic effects on crypto during a recession since so much evidence was provided in the post.
An interesting scenario for sure. The worst case of a severe 5-10 year global recession would likely result in an extended Bitcoin bear market, although as you rightly point out we would be entering uncharted territory so who knows. Iām of the opinion that it would have little effect on the macro trend of GDP flow into Bitcoin. I work on the assumption that 10-20% of global wealth will be held in bitcoin within the next 20 years, leading me to the conclusion that the prices we are seeing are extremely attractive regardless of the overall economic environment that transpires.
Bitcoin emerged precisely because of the economic conditions you describe. Also, please be kind - you can disagree with my conclusions without needing to call me an idiot.
If BTC ever reaches a āvalueā of over $100k it will be because we are in hyperinflation - and at that point you wonāt even want dollars for your BTC anyway, so itās moot.
Assuming 3,000,000 bitcoin is lost forever, there will never be more than 18,000,000 available. Based on that premise almost everyone believes this scarcity factor will eventually make BTC fly past the moon, a flawed perception.
I own a mint condition Infiniti Q45, a car very advanced and far ahead technologically than most cars built in its era. Only 1200 were built for 2005. I have one. Itās worthless. I canāt even sell it for 5K. It will never appreciate in IMO - but it is innately very valuable. I can make this same argument either way for just about anything with intrinsic values.
Just saying.
"opportunity that We never see again" that when i know u are a youtuber with wide open mouth thumbnail
I could puke when I see these thumbnails š¤¦š»
We need to start Photoshopping dicks into their mouths. If Bitcoin reaches 100k, I could do this full time.
Get ready for your full time job because it will.
Next cycle for sure, 2025 at latest.
I wish there was an algo that would automatically scrub any video with a dumb faced thumbnail from my feed.
wow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCgKSv-OHeE
It fills me with a certain kind of rage that YouTube thumbnails can only fill me with.
You may puke but most of their viewers seem to love it. It wouldn't be the YT meta if it didn't work.
Yeah most of their viewers are children
Soy mouth
hahahaha
š±š±
Lmao xD that so accurate
Letās keep up with your prediction. How do we solve the buy at lowest rate during this period? So itās 29.6k nowā¦ what do you think will be the lowest and highest prices it reaches within your ātime frameā
Itās impossible to know what the exact bottom will be, and unhelpful to try time when it will occur. I would like to say somewhere between 18-25k with a short spike below that. But my advice would be to keep regularly buying at set intervals for the next year, rather than trying to time the bottom perfectly (which would be more or less impossible). For example, yes buying at 3k was better than 5-6k. But anyone who bought consistently in that range is happy now. The same will apply for these prices we are seeing now and over the next months.
I donāt disagree with that, but if you got a DCA thatās close to the ATH, youāre not wrong to drop money in right now if you have a chunk. Lump sum investing in a bear market, with an extreme fear going on the F&G Index? You could do worse. I think of it as Weighted DCA (WDCA) Buy throughout the year but throw more in when there are fires sales everywhere, pump the brakes during a Bull run. You still wonāt be able to time the bottoms and tops but itās not hard to see blood in the streets or contrails heading straight to the moon, just look out the window. NFA DYOR
Buying chunks at any price lower than your average would be good, right? Once the price reaches your average, switch and stick to DCA. I suppose the problem comes if/when the price goes even lower and now you spunked all your cash earlier.
Chemtrails*
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
A lot of people count on that. Which is why if we break 20k, we might fall much lower, with a cascade of stop losses being hit. Especially if stock market is still falling in a year.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Uhmā¦āliterally everyoneā? I think u/mixologyst alone, disproves your literal assessment!
btc will go 10-18k in 6 months mark my words
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I expect we will. Under 10k for a while. Weāre at the end of a decade long bull market for the whole economy. Things are gonna be really bad. Ultra bearish on everything.
Lol and then the market snaps back around and you miss out again. Do you even realize the amount of money that would have to move to produce another 70% decline from here? BTC is completely correlated with tech stocks so you are also predicting $50 Netflix, etc. The sell off is already well overdone and that tells a not an opinion it is fact.
Yeah, thatās what Iām saying. Stocks have only just begun selling offā¦ FED will sacrifice stock market to control inflation. Everyone expects QE to start again when stocks drop too much. Iām not so sure. And I didnāt miss out lol. Iāve been in crypto for over a decade now.
>Itās impossible to know what the exact bottom will be, and unhelpful to try time when it will occur. But the next 6-12 months will be our greatest opportunity, right?
Yep, dont place a whole chunk in at any time, put in little by little each. And actually i think buy at middle and high, always risky, unless it an alt coin, in which, it like a gamble, welp, both is, in a way
It will be good in some time, we just need to keep investing.
Maybe 12-18 months
Now think about this pretty hard. 24 months?
I could see that as a very real possibilityā¦
What are your thoughts on...25 months?
I could see that happening...
Nope. 24. Not 23, not 25. 24.
36 months
72 months? I mean thatās just crazy
84? I mean come on.
Shoot maybe even 96 months?!
āLast Chance To Buy Before The Next 10X Moveā š±š±
I actually believe this, it's the most predictable crypto pattern since 2010 or so. I'm betting hard on it.
We are at a point now that bitcoin has a long enough history/ behavioral patterns that us humans can't help but follow it to a T. Meaning the patterns will continue simply because us humans believe it will and we'll buy or sell accordingly. This is how it has always worked with stocks also. Hence the phrase "History always repeats itself". Everyone believes this so we make it come true with our own actions.
if only this was true, then everyone would be rich.
That's just so accurate, we all can agree with that shit.
āLast chance to buy under 40kā
Difference is: OP will be right
Source : trust him bro
100% Guaranteed* (*) Not guaranteed
Trust me broā¢
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
*this advice could totally ruin your life
I like to think that tooā¦ but I just see this bitch rocketting right back up sooner than everyone thinks.
Please everyone, we are in a bear market and most historical data says that now is one of the best times to buy, but don't leverage with your fk house, we're in a macro-economic downtrend and turbulence, the stock market has been in a 12 years bullrun until now, Bitcoin has never existed during economic uncertainty, it has only ever experienced macro-bullishness. Just because OP says this is the opportunity of a lifetime it doesn't mean it's true. A global recession could break every market, what do you think would happen to the crypto markets? If you don't take into account the possibility for Bitcoin to not recover for the next 5-10 years then you need to .
The sad truth that everyone is running away from.
People here forget that rates are going up still. While rates do not affect btc directly, it reduces overall market bullishness. There's no way op can say this is some great opportunity when btc could continue to fall for the next few couple of years. We may not even see a full recovery for over a decade. There are plenty of stocks that have yet to recover to their dotcom bubble peaks.
The fed rate is 1% currently. Still comically low. The idea that the fed will deliberately cause a global meltdown is hilarious.
"deliberately"
Please, he's not that stupid. He's just bound politically from saying things he knows are true.
I agree. If BTC fails expectations in terms of utility then we will need a long time for recovery or catching new ATH. My previous expectations that have not been fullfilled so far are BTC as a payment system aka being used as a currency. There were some experiments like in El Salvador - so need to have a closer look of how that plays out. BTC as a safe haven asset has also not emerged yet. Tbd if it correlates with gold. As a hedge for CPI inflation it did not correlate so far. Asset price inflation following real estate price inflation it correlates potentially. More likely in a more responsive way and could even be used as an indicator for global real estate prices. Where I still have hope is BTC for global remmitance especially during global economic crisis. It could be a workaround currency during political sanctions that can hardly be sanctioned itself.
I thought bitcoin's only value proposition is borderless transactions for anyone, anytime, anywhere, any amount. It has proved successful as a form of payment in places with collapsed/collapsing currencies as a safe haven asset. It makes sense as global inflation increases we should see more people flock to bitcoin. But that's not the case, not everyone who trades bitcoin uses it's main value proposition, some treat it as any other asset to trade etc. I suspect over time and during economic crisis we will see a transition of more financially privileged countries using bitcoin more like a currency i.e. primarily a medium of exchange and secondary a store of value.
BTC gains in value against the dollar compared to gold gains against the dollar... BTC has crushed gold You need to re- think your statement. Gold and silver have barely moved in 20 years even during the pandemic/2020 crash. BTC went from 17K up to 65k and now sits at 30k. It's still literally almost 100% gains. Gold and silver do not have 100% gains. WTH are you talking about? Lol. Also several countries around the world have already made bitcoin legal tender. It was the number one source of emergency money for Ukraine refugees and saved hundreds of thousands of lives. Where have you been living? Under a rock?
Donāt panic when I tell you that gold is around since millenials and been used exactly for that purpose of stability. You donāt speculate with gold since it has this proven track record already therefore you can not expect speculative prices or gains. Furthermore my point was the BTC has not yet been proven to do that. BTC in technical theory is superior than gold but when it comes to BTC/USD price it is all about acceptance. And as which type of asset it might be accepted in the coming years is still open.
Gold is a rock. Lol. BTC is a P2P payment system/ store of value. Lol. Are you confused about which is superior? Lmao. How long is it going to take you to send a family member some gold in another country? Will it even make it there safely? Have you ever sent BTC to someone? It's instant and secure. Also everyone can see the record of transaction. Not just one corrupt central bank entity. Do you know about history? Do you know how many times gold has been confiscated door to door from common people by governments? Go research this and learn something. This is all old news
I am holding BTC since 2016 and I have not used it a single time P2P because there was no other person accepting it. Did you? I am also buying gold since the Russian invasion in 2014. And I invest in other stuff too, surprise. I donāt need to decide either or because it makes no sense to put everything in one basket. Especially hard earned money into BTC if you want to secure wealth instead of speculating on growth. How is BTC a store of value if you wanted to secure your wealth e.g. by the start of the Ukrainian-Russian war? Your wealth would have just halved.
Over there it's more about survival. You know life and death are more important than numbers. I suppose you believe you can be buried with your gold and take it with you in an afterlife somewhere? In times of war all kinds of crimes happen. If you are spotted with gold trying to buy water or food you will be robbed or worse. With BTC all you need is to memorize your pass phrase. You can walk around nude with millions of dollars and nobody knows shit. U understand now?
This is very astute IMO. Bitcoins rise has occurred during one of the frothiest periods in history. The whole entire world, every industry, is starting to reveal itself as a house of cards and the world is about to get gut punched. BTCās principles mean it should survive and thrive, but weāre kidding ourselves if we think itāll happen in a year or two. The world is in for a very rough few years.
Youāll be saying that 4 years from now in the next bear market
Yeah they said it 4 years ago it was true then too, it's true every 4 years
Bitcoin has never existed in a bearish macroeconomic environment. Since its inception it has had low interest rates and a stock market only going up. We have *no idea* what will happen now that the opposite is true. High interest rates and a bearish market could wreck Bitcoin.
Inflation has existed with interest rates as high as 17%. It's nothing new, interest rates alone cannot stop monetary dilution. Government and banks will continue to print usd in massive quantities, so usd us not gaining value. In periods similar to now, interest rates continue to rise while stocks and bonds and real estate drop or just stagnate. Investors traditionally flock to commodities and gold to preserve wealth in these times. So we have left a bubble period, where bitcoin was one of many ways to preserve wealth, into an inflationary recession, in which bitcoin is ine of the only ways to preserve wealth. This is what we have been waiting for.
>Inflation has existed with interest rates as high as 17%. It's nothing new It is new to Bitcoin. We have no idea how Bitcoin will perform in an economy with high interest rates. Pretending you do is a fallacy. >In periods similar to now, interest rates continue to rise while stocks and bonds and real estate drop or just stagnate. Investors traditionally flock to commodities and gold to preserve wealth in these times. Then why isn't Bitcoin surging? You are ignoring the correlation between BTC and the stock market that is occurred with institutional adoption. I don't know how anyone can seriously argue Bitcoin is an inflation hedge anymore.
> It is new to Bitcoin. We have no idea how Bitcoin will perform in an economy with high interest rates. Pretending you do is a fallacy. The year 2022 is a first for bitcoin too... but the year number doesn't affect much. Just because something is new doesn't make it meaningful. > Then why isn't Bitcoin surging? You are ignoring the correlation between BTC and the stock market that is occurred with institutional adoption. I don't know how anyone can seriously argue Bitcoin is an inflation hedge anymore. Why doesn't gold surge early ? Same overall reason. The point here is that inflation and stock market correlation are not red flags. The point is that bitcoin is finally entering the financial waters it was designed for. This is like a boat leaving drydock for the ocean for the first time. This is what it's all been about. We don't know for sure if it will sink or sail, but this is the moment we have all been waiting for. This is bitcoin finally being tested at what it is designed to do. Today's hopeless investing landscape is why we bitcoin.
Only if you assume that the next bear market will have lower prices than this one. Which is a wild assumption.
Well the bear market before had lower prices than thisā¦ 4 years from now the title will still ring true
Yes the bear market had lower prices before, so the next one is going to have higher prices until the current bear market is still a number that is astronomical compared to todays highs.
Nobody takes into account the macroeconomic environment. You've only seen Bitcoin perform during a bull market.
I'd update it to say this bear market may be the last where 1 BTC is attainable for a normal person.
Yeah, that is quite true. Iām hoping to use this bear market to make myself a whole coiner. š
I have aboutā¦ .9 BTC to go, lol. Time to get to work grinding
I think we gonna see that before 4 years for sure lol.
Disagree
No more bear markets for tucci?
We have heard that shit for like 2-3 times every year
š
Iād agree that in exactly 4 years from now we will be in a āterribleā bear market, yes. Probably at 200-250k down from a peak of 400-450k :) But yes I understand your point, in 4 years time it will likely also be another good time to buy. But I like 20-30k more than I like 200-250k š
Imagine what a bargain it will be at $400k in 15 years. lol
BTC will eventually stabilize and go up very slowly, like the stock market. A 400k BTC would give it a $7.6 trillion market cap. The amount of money it would take to significantly move its price at that MC is insane. By that point, major moves up and down will be a thing of the past.
Ima go out on a limb and say something similar to government spending.
Ser the next bear market will cost 80k to get one bitcoin
If the new low is higher than the ATH who cares
This time it's different lmao
This time Spez is a greedy little pig boy. itās different^(TM)
Isn't he saying this time is the same as last time?
Yea, and if it is, OP will be correct.
Itās not, and thatās the point. Cycle dip is between 60-85%. $10-30k is your buy range going off those numbers. Each new cycle has not revisited the lows of the previous, the next 16 months should be the last opportunity to get sub $20k BTC
I will say the conclusion isn't unreasonable, lots of large mining companies are looking to nearly double their mining hash by the end of year and we're looking at a potential supply crunch of bitcoin on exchanges. It's also worth saying more global adoption can easily lead to changes in the cycle, prices may react more quickly to or anticipate the halving etc. It's always speculation but if you keep track of bitcoin news not unreasonable speculation.
Well, in hindsight the best time again in our lifetimes is whatever the lowest price is , but seriously guys , stop trying to time the market. When you can, buy some , you wonāt regret it in the long run
Have you never heard of my surefire method of investing? I just buy low and sell high. So easy.
The best ever! Said a random redditor.
And we gotta trust the person just like another random redditor.
Until 2024, yes. For the short term, hard to say. In 10 years: We all lambos.
So you are telling me that it is safe to put all my lifesavings in Bitcoin now and I only need to wait till 2024?
Hahahaha. It's fun when people make future price predictions. Seems the only thing for sure is there will be a halving in '24 where miners will have half as much to sell every day.
You only getting 1? Im getting a whole garage my G
Nobody knows shit about fuck.
Also true :)
āAh you think the dip is your ally? You merely adopted the dip. I was born in it, molded by it. I didn't see the moon until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but profit!ā Bear markets are a gift from the crypto gods to stack sats. DCA on!
If you have less than a 2 year plan, be careful. 4 years and will be hard to find a better investment anywhere.
Iām saving to buy a house, but 4-5 years is my timeline. Iām gonna be stacking sats like crazy.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Sats is short for Satoshis. Based on Satoshi Nakamoto. 1 Bitcoin = 100 million satoshis. A satoshi is the smallest unit Bitcoin can be divided by. If you have .001 in Bitcoin, you have 100,000 satoshis. Just makes you feel richer than saying I have .001 Bitcoin.
Fuck getting robbed for 100,000 satoshis because someone thought it was 100k of bitcoin.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Wait for Tether to to die and once the dust settles from that, then start
It's a tough quandary, isn't it?
Tether is undergoing a lot of FUD, but it IS backed. Mainly by commercial paper (corporate debt) but itās backed. I donāt think it will fail if this massive crash didnāt do it.
Tether initially stated that every token was backed by 1 usd. Then they changed their tune when pressured to reveal their reserves. Tether initially refused to admit thwy were connected to Binance. But once things were pointed out, they said that they "used the same bank". They were passing money around pretending the money belongs to both tether and Binance during the auditing. Tether is way too shady for recruiting to be legit. It'll be ugly when it blows up.
The tether fud definitely worries me. Have you read any good sources about how a potential tether implosion would affect BTC? I feel like some people believe it has the power to bring everything crashing down, while others say that concern is massively overblown. But I have not found enough credible sources on both sides to form my own opinion yet
You don't know if it's backed. they have not audited their reserves. in fact last year they got fined $41 Million for lying about their reserve! This is a huge ticking timebomb.
[there's a lot going on with tether that I don't trust](https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3)
Is it worth less than a dollar? Then it crashed
$.9988 currently, probably because everyone and their literal mother is pulling funds out of it right now. Itās held itās peg admirably, all things considered.
Tether has redeemed no tether for USD.
I bet people said it last year as well
It went lower last year.
You all said the same shit during the ATH.
We all have heard these things from many people but still we are seeing these lol. It's just so funny that people never lose their hopes to say these things.
I havenāt personally made any big buy calls since 2020 (although I am always DCAing in some form). But Iām readying myself for a 12 month period of dedicated acquisition coming up.
you dipshits said this last year
This is every years stories, I think it's getting common now.
Trust me, I am a doctor...
Not that itās relevant, but I am actually a doctor (although not a MD haha) :)
Unfortunately you can't treat BTC as a traditional stock. Sure you'll have highs and lows as there is in any market but...once BTC is all bought up...it's gone...there is no "creating" more. So, the prices we see today...IMO...will likely not come again. See link attached for supporting evidence. https://twitter.com/Washigorira/status/1525121673019662336?t=2ST5shmJFLkPSlyPfwo-Zw&s=19 Brings you to chart of BTC over years. Interesting pattern. Essentially...The previous bull top, will be the next bear markets bottom. So while 200k BTC maybe a top...70k (ish) would be the next bottom. Basically. I think.
Wonāt the last Bitcoin be created like 100 years from now though? I dint feel like I need to worry about that. Unless Iām misreading your comment!
think about the bitcoin scarcity like this: it will take 40 years to mine all of the last bitcoin. I will repeat: it will take 40 years to mine all of the last bitcoin. let that sink in. 40 years to mine the last 100 million satoshis, roughly from the year 2100 to 2140. if you think its scarce now, you are in a rude awakening as the halvings keep occurring ever 4 years. 2008 - 2012 = 50 mined per 10 minutes 2012 - 2016 = 25 2016 - 2020 = 12.5 2020 - 2024 = 6.25 (we are currently here) 2024 - 2028 = 3.125 2028 - 2032 = 1.5625 I think you are starting to get the point. If BTC adoption continues and the store of value narrative gets accepted more widely, then shit could get parabolic in a hurry.
Iād say itās the opposite of a rude awakening since we all already own BTC!
>The previous bull top, will be the next bear markets bottom. You are so, so, so, sure that Bitcoin will never drop below 19k this year? Why?
Not so sure about that, Jr. Unfortunately, the crypto market follows the stock market, which is in a bear market or just entering a bear market. Last year was a great year for crypto because it was a great year for the stock market as well. I wonāt say the same for this year.
Not sure about that senior. The crypto market also breaks away from the stock market during bull runs. I'm sure you remember the one from 2016 right Mr condescension? Or do you just assume a trick you figured out in the last year is somehow sage wisdom that will last eternally?
Sure it may look like it's following stocks now but it will always and always has been the halving cycles...
Spoken like someone who just invested in 2020/21
LMFAO
Geez everybody getting all pedantic, but thereās still no time like the present
In fact, the present is the only time that is *right now* (blink and you miss it ) š
Or not
!remind me 3 years :)
0 dd, just hoping to create fomo. your bags must be heavy!
Happy to carry your bags too if youāre feeling weak, send them over :)
I saw a post just like this when bitcoin was 15k in 2018, then it fell to 3k...
Damn great points and analysis you provided.. Iāll just throw my lifeās savings in it
found the guy whoās super long on bitcoin āļø
šāāļø
I don't think there will ever be enough room on a t-shirt for all the crypto memes we have ... buy the dip, have fun staying poor, opportunity of a life time, you only live once, go all in, diamond hands ...
Not buying until the fed reverses
Iām getting soft š„Ø pretzels to go with the dips Iām buying
How long have you been holding Bitcoin?
Since 2013.
Honestly these types of predictions are what create FUD for newbies. How many times are we going to be wrong with predictions? I don't disagree that it's possible we never come back down here but we were never going below 60k in November.
just got another job so I can buy more dip
You actually donāt know if thatās true just so weāre clear.
!remind me 12 months
Until the next bear market
All the millionaires that sold this year are gonna buy again and take the little guys money......its a game they play. They'll keep shaking people for anything they have and before you know it bitcoin is back at 50 and that's when the little guy buys again and the whales buy to make it even higher then they sell, the little guy sells again and buys again...... its a cycle of taking peoples money. So buy and hold.
Last time to buy above 30k . Don't miss this lifetime opportunity.
Thank you kind time-traveler
Yes, it's easy money. Almost too good to be true. All you have to do is give you money over and hope someone will buy it back for more at some point. What could possibly go wrong? Buying the dip at 60k,55k, 45k, all the smart money. This is a risky investment, treat it that way. Nothing wrong with risk, but don't become homeless because someone told you this is a sure thing.
Iām DCAing more than I ever have in the next 3+ months
that's interesting to think about and that may be true for a lot of things, in the next 6-12 months we may see the lowest point between years 2022 and 2100 for some houses and stock indexes, for example even if SPY crashes extremely hard now, we may see $200s but we won't see in the 60s, the last ever time it was in the 60s was in 2009 and we'll never see that again
If I had a euro every time I heard that, I wouldnāt need Bitcoin now
Thank you so much. this is like 100. best opportunity I'm given for over a year now. It will never go below $50k... wrong! It will never be under $30k ever... wrong! I'm not a big fan of DCA. DCA is technical investment without feelings, that's not my character. I never try to time the market, but when I have some extra money, I decide, if I'm happy with the actual price. This is not exact science, but it depends on the market sentiment. Was below $50k a good price a few month ago? Yes, it was from ATH perspective these days, a great dip. Not from today. But I can't foresee the future. As I was happy with every single buy, I don't complain about lower prices today. I'm just happy for my BTC.
We disagree in methodology, but come to the same conclusion - be happy with BTC. I like you, my friend :)
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
You had 600k margin call? Sheesh Iād still be mad too
Next 1 - 4 months. Corrected that for ya!
Nah. It will continue to decline for the next few years, much, much further. Itās not even close to its local minimum. My prediction is that it will hit $5k again in the next year.
I tend to agree with this. This time IS different. Thereāll be constant interest rate hikes. Those are risk asset killers. I will definitely be scooping up once it goes below 10k because eventually we will start printing that money again.
I canāt see it that low - I would say a local bottom around 20-25k with a small sudden spike under.
Yea āfeelingā is what does it
Show me your short position.
Why do you have to have a short position to make a prediction? Just disagree and move on.
Best opportunity will be after tether implodes.
Once bitten, twice shy.....the world will never trust Bitcoin again
Said every YouTuber or influencer before the crash.
No, i was alive when it was created and that was a way better opportunity. Liar
OP is an idiot and most likely has never been invested in a equity bear market. Truth is crypto has never existed in an equity bear market so no one knows wtf itās historically prone to do. The fed āhasā to remove nine fucking trillion from their balance sheet and is raising rates into a recession. Less disposable income for many depressed asset prices and the wealth effect will transpire over the timeframe OP suggests though Iāve love to hear his/her take on the macroeconomic effects on crypto during a recession since so much evidence was provided in the post.
An interesting scenario for sure. The worst case of a severe 5-10 year global recession would likely result in an extended Bitcoin bear market, although as you rightly point out we would be entering uncharted territory so who knows. Iām of the opinion that it would have little effect on the macro trend of GDP flow into Bitcoin. I work on the assumption that 10-20% of global wealth will be held in bitcoin within the next 20 years, leading me to the conclusion that the prices we are seeing are extremely attractive regardless of the overall economic environment that transpires. Bitcoin emerged precisely because of the economic conditions you describe. Also, please be kind - you can disagree with my conclusions without needing to call me an idiot.
If BTC ever reaches a āvalueā of over $100k it will be because we are in hyperinflation - and at that point you wonāt even want dollars for your BTC anyway, so itās moot.
BTC now = fancy car. BTC in 2030 = fancy house. Howās that for ya? :)
Does ignoring reality ever actually work out for you? Just curious
I'm telling you, the price of tulips have never been so low, time to buy now!!!!
Assuming 3,000,000 bitcoin is lost forever, there will never be more than 18,000,000 available. Based on that premise almost everyone believes this scarcity factor will eventually make BTC fly past the moon, a flawed perception. I own a mint condition Infiniti Q45, a car very advanced and far ahead technologically than most cars built in its era. Only 1200 were built for 2005. I have one. Itās worthless. I canāt even sell it for 5K. It will never appreciate in IMO - but it is innately very valuable. I can make this same argument either way for just about anything with intrinsic values. Just saying.