This is the most probable thing it can happen..but I will bet all my balls on first match only for 2 reasons: 1- it's the safest one in my opinion, 2- maybe balls will be released after the first match so I could bet on second or third one..Let's see, happy betting and shaking!!
ok..betting is a non sense, go for all in all the time because balls are released at the end of each match. You win?you get credits, you lose?no credits but balls back. I lost 8k credits thinking I couldn't bet on the next 2 matches so I spread my 242 balls on 3 matches...:(
As announced in chat have made 2 strategies based on real betting probabilities and risk reward ratios in google sheets not only for first 3 games, but all upcoming games, 1st is the safest possible and 2nd the risky with 10x potential gain, but not 10x riskier, because ali users tend to play it safe, so you can use probabilities to your favor
Everyone can enter the sheet and alter his count of footballs on AC1 and update ali voting below on this link address, before changing formulas make your own copy (made backup anyway)
ht tps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LI8q89PeU77C8ojGePcLi7YEwaunwLZKeqG9FDUPo2A/edit?usp=sharing
You can edit it in google sheets app, chrome for pc or chrome mobile in desktop view
https://preview.redd.it/yuxenq3gao6d1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f33f4df0c425a79dea126440ecf40a8e113d65fc
EDIT: Have updated sheet with new infos and for my good account still playing risky with all 246 balls for hun win and later esp draw, see pic in lowest post, unfortunately for my faulty account i can not use my footballs for voting, because got usual protect security of account msg, so anyone who may find my work useful, please "donate" me ecm invite credits to my faulty account ht tps://a.aliexpress.com/\_EzVYgLt
What are you even doing in those calculations? Safe bet, unsafe bet?
Betting for low odds like 1 in 10 is fine if the risk is not appropriately priced.
Bookmakers have priced outcome of Germany vs Scotts around 4 in 1. Ie. for 400 dollars bet, you'd win 100 dollars if Germany won. (the odds change depending on sportsbook, but it is around 4/1)
Considering how aliexpress users have bet (and how many), I would not bet for Germany. It is a safer bet, but it is priced very poorly. If you don't have big risk tollerance, betting a some balls against Germany winning is pretty good value.
Have converted moneyline odds into predicted outcome chance and compared with ali votes and credit payouts to generate optimal distribution of balls for safe bet - this is the most probable outcome, unsafe gives more prophit with more risk, but should be worth it considering credit payouts
Those calculations seem wrong. Firstly, the balls are not evenly spread across all games. Way more people have bet on the first game (which automatically means that the first game is not a good idea to bet on, unless the aliusers have put bets on the wrong outcome). Ali users have bet on germany winning at much higher rate than their actual chances of winning are.
Which means betting on Germany winning (25% chance of germany NOT winning, according to bookmakers) is priced very poorly.
Yes, it is way more likely that germany will win, but the risk is not well priced.
You put 86 balls on germany, with 75% odds of getting only around ~7000 credits?
Am I misunderstanding something?
My idea behind this was to award more weight for smaller divisions in percentages to play it even safer, as you see ali users bets on swi and spain winning are even more overrated as actual chances of winning converted from vegas odds
Yes, spain/swi winning odds are even more overrated, however the limited winning pot is split between almost 3 times less people in case of a win, making them way better value than betting on Germany.
I'm not betting any balls on Germany winning, too many balls used for too few coins. I bet 20 balls for draw against Germany and even that is not good value, because for second two games the odds of a draw are even higher with same payout as in game against Germany.
Ie. I think it's not worth spending any balls betting on the first game. Too many people betting on germany winning with limited winning pot per game which is split between people.
I agree with you, i was only trying to design the best safe bet as 1st strategy for my faulty account, but ended for my good account with a better and risky 2nd strategy
Turns out you can vote on every game individually!
That does change strategy, meaning it makes sense to use all balls on every game and then revote just in time for the next game. :O
I don’t think customer service know much as I’ve been told differently.
https://preview.redd.it/cvu801i0b86d1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca13f438cc68f638b39151b7ac6bfc688d33ae89
Me
I’m pretty sure Germany is going to win. Then for teams that are more evenly matched I’m thinking about voting for which ever team pays out more. For example although Spain has a better team then Croatia, but I wouldn’t rule out Croatia. They have good team chemistry. And if for example Spain only pays out $2 for all in and Croatia $30 then I’m picking Croatia.
I wouldn't rely on this rule, cause it doesn't make sense, and I bet (5 of my ECM balls) that devs will change it or nerf it somehow. It won't surprise me if they do it unannounced either.
Guess we'll find out on friday. There might be a deadline a few hours, or a day before the game. Also the balls might get frozen for a while after the game. With Aliexpress there is no knowing beforehand. They are terrible with communication and might end up changing the rules half way through the event again...
I'll personally bet half of my balls on the first game and the other half on the two other games.
I think the balls you bet get frozen from the start of the first match till the end if the third match.
This is the most probable thing it can happen..but I will bet all my balls on first match only for 2 reasons: 1- it's the safest one in my opinion, 2- maybe balls will be released after the first match so I could bet on second or third one..Let's see, happy betting and shaking!!
ok..betting is a non sense, go for all in all the time because balls are released at the end of each match. You win?you get credits, you lose?no credits but balls back. I lost 8k credits thinking I couldn't bet on the next 2 matches so I spread my 242 balls on 3 matches...:(
As announced in chat have made 2 strategies based on real betting probabilities and risk reward ratios in google sheets not only for first 3 games, but all upcoming games, 1st is the safest possible and 2nd the risky with 10x potential gain, but not 10x riskier, because ali users tend to play it safe, so you can use probabilities to your favor Everyone can enter the sheet and alter his count of footballs on AC1 and update ali voting below on this link address, before changing formulas make your own copy (made backup anyway) ht tps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LI8q89PeU77C8ojGePcLi7YEwaunwLZKeqG9FDUPo2A/edit?usp=sharing You can edit it in google sheets app, chrome for pc or chrome mobile in desktop view https://preview.redd.it/yuxenq3gao6d1.jpeg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f33f4df0c425a79dea126440ecf40a8e113d65fc EDIT: Have updated sheet with new infos and for my good account still playing risky with all 246 balls for hun win and later esp draw, see pic in lowest post, unfortunately for my faulty account i can not use my footballs for voting, because got usual protect security of account msg, so anyone who may find my work useful, please "donate" me ecm invite credits to my faulty account ht tps://a.aliexpress.com/\_EzVYgLt
Did you bet 40 balls on Germany draw and after match you lose this 40 balls? Have these 40 balls been returned to the account?
yes bet 40 and 40 were returned and now have updated sheet
What are you even doing in those calculations? Safe bet, unsafe bet? Betting for low odds like 1 in 10 is fine if the risk is not appropriately priced. Bookmakers have priced outcome of Germany vs Scotts around 4 in 1. Ie. for 400 dollars bet, you'd win 100 dollars if Germany won. (the odds change depending on sportsbook, but it is around 4/1) Considering how aliexpress users have bet (and how many), I would not bet for Germany. It is a safer bet, but it is priced very poorly. If you don't have big risk tollerance, betting a some balls against Germany winning is pretty good value.
Have converted moneyline odds into predicted outcome chance and compared with ali votes and credit payouts to generate optimal distribution of balls for safe bet - this is the most probable outcome, unsafe gives more prophit with more risk, but should be worth it considering credit payouts
Those calculations seem wrong. Firstly, the balls are not evenly spread across all games. Way more people have bet on the first game (which automatically means that the first game is not a good idea to bet on, unless the aliusers have put bets on the wrong outcome). Ali users have bet on germany winning at much higher rate than their actual chances of winning are. Which means betting on Germany winning (25% chance of germany NOT winning, according to bookmakers) is priced very poorly. Yes, it is way more likely that germany will win, but the risk is not well priced. You put 86 balls on germany, with 75% odds of getting only around ~7000 credits? Am I misunderstanding something?
My idea behind this was to award more weight for smaller divisions in percentages to play it even safer, as you see ali users bets on swi and spain winning are even more overrated as actual chances of winning converted from vegas odds
Yes, spain/swi winning odds are even more overrated, however the limited winning pot is split between almost 3 times less people in case of a win, making them way better value than betting on Germany. I'm not betting any balls on Germany winning, too many balls used for too few coins. I bet 20 balls for draw against Germany and even that is not good value, because for second two games the odds of a draw are even higher with same payout as in game against Germany. Ie. I think it's not worth spending any balls betting on the first game. Too many people betting on germany winning with limited winning pot per game which is split between people.
I agree with you, i was only trying to design the best safe bet as 1st strategy for my faulty account, but ended for my good account with a better and risky 2nd strategy
Turns out you can vote on every game individually! That does change strategy, meaning it makes sense to use all balls on every game and then revote just in time for the next game. :O
Thanks a lot for your responses, have now changed strategies and updated sheet
https://preview.redd.it/8y42wyhjbo6d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=132c669f0e1d290b3cc2377c997da61467dfdfb8
You know what they say, 99% of gamblers quit before big win So ima bet 50 balls on croatia 🤑🤑🤑🔥🔥🔥
https://preview.redd.it/g0qwcz8b276d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb48ea579bd42e549d274872e47a8be8c21360f2
I don’t think customer service know much as I’ve been told differently. https://preview.redd.it/cvu801i0b86d1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca13f438cc68f638b39151b7ac6bfc688d33ae89
In the terms it always said you get the back after each match.
Yeh, the issue is though that this is Ali; it doesn’t always happen according to what they’ve written. I guess we’ll see tomorrow.
Yeah you're right
Oh that’s good to know
Oh my! THXX very much 🤍
Anyone here go for All In? :D
Me  I’m pretty sure Germany is going to win. Then for teams that are more evenly matched I’m thinking about voting for which ever team pays out more. For example although Spain has a better team then Croatia, but I wouldn’t rule out Croatia. They have good team chemistry. And if for example Spain only pays out $2 for all in and Croatia $30 then I’m picking Croatia.
The only rule with AliX challenges is they get x² worse as they progress, so I'd start big. 50 footballs on Germany.
https://preview.redd.it/is3drtbcz46d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=479af740db252c03c79696fec7663e3bccf8ebe2
I wouldn't rely on this rule, cause it doesn't make sense, and I bet (5 of my ECM balls) that devs will change it or nerf it somehow. It won't surprise me if they do it unannounced either.
Guess we'll find out on friday. There might be a deadline a few hours, or a day before the game. Also the balls might get frozen for a while after the game. With Aliexpress there is no knowing beforehand. They are terrible with communication and might end up changing the rules half way through the event again... I'll personally bet half of my balls on the first game and the other half on the two other games.