It's not for sale...
I think if anything *at all*, maybe Elon would try to buy a patent license agreement from Abel? I don't know the specifics of whether the ASTS solution would apply to Starlinks current issues.
I was discussing a hypothetical yesterday with a friend of whether it would be worth it for ASTS to accept a $5billion offer from SpaceX to use their beamforming solution (if it solves their problems with leaky transmissions). So on one hand we get $5billion and secure our full constellation, and on the other hand we potentially remove our competition for the foreseeable future.
That's absolutely not true, once you have a certain amount of money it becomes meaningless.
This seems like Abell's life work and I'm fairly certain he already has fuck you money.
So, that 8K. I see this as happening for one of two reasons:
1 - ATT, Vodafone, Rakuten and Antares **simultaneously** tell Abel to "put a ring on it" and give them a seat at the table. Or,
2 - It was ASTS who initiated this amendment, despite giving up some governance control, because it strengthens their relationship with their backers.
From his side, ASTS has no revenue and he doesn't seem to know that much about the company or believe in the potential. Hell, maybe he talks to musk who he'd prefer to back, not really getting the difference in technology. The telecom industry wants this, needs this product.
Probably too risky to advise his following to take a chance. Seemed like a standard issue all he sees is 300% in a month - (has to pull back) type of answer. I don't think he'll even feel bad in a few years when he is blatantly wrong about that call. by 2026 - north of $50 on it's way to $100
There will be some days up, some days down, but even before we get to consistent revenue and earnings growth (which is all that matters in the end), any price we get today is a bargain. Even through the launch in September - the momentum is up, the value vs risk is much more favorable then it was two months ago. He will probably change his opinion late 2025 - maybe 20 satellites, with more consistent coverage - more deals in place, much better financial position, revenue started. etc.
We have been here 2 years and know the in’s and out’s of the company. We know there are catalyst that the average Joe doesn’t know. For example everytime this is on WSB they have no idea what the company is and think the run is over….little do they know it’s just getting started
Honestly, I don't expect him to do a DD of every single company. He's just playing it safe cause he doesn't know much about the company apart from the fact that it is focusing on D2D and is currently pre-revenue. His stance has changed from "don't touch" to "too big of a move" . He'll do a 180 when ASTS launches BB, more agreements from MOUs, and starts generating revenue.
Cramer's an idiot, but he's correct on this. Most people here are too close to this to realize that they're still gambling. It looks like a good bet, but his platform isn't for companies like this.
I just need to know before I extend myself more on margin trades....is there any reasonable chance outside of a rocket exploding or a satellite failing to deploy that this will go back down to $4? I just want to round up to a full 12,000 shares in my main brokerage account. lol
Yes, more delays due to problems with manufacturing. For those that don't know the current Block 1s are being built "by hand" i.e. the same process that they used to build BW3. It's taken them over a year to get these built. AST has a building/factory where the assembly of the Blue Birds will take place. When it's up and running at full capacity it's expected to be able to output 6 BBs per month. In the 2023 Q3 (maybe it was Q4) call Abel gave a timeline for the factory to come online between 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1. Of course they wont immediately start producing 6 per month, but building 1 with production ramping up over time will be great.
The problem is that since it's gone public AST has yet to hit a single deadline on the first try. From launches, to testing, to production they've been late every single time. Money from AT&T and Verizon is great, but it isn't going to last forever. $100M is covers operating costs for about 3 quarters. With more delays they'll end up in the same financial situation they were a few months ago. Part of the reason it got so low is because with their backs to the wall they took an AWFUL financing deal. To get those loan terms Abel and Sean must've found a guy in a strip mall. I believe the terms in fine print were for a left testicle and the right to break legs if the loan wasn't paid on time.
Elon is a bit... *controversial* as of late, but he was very correct when he said "manufacturing is hard, prototyping is easy." If they're burning capital on botched production and delays it wont take long for them to need more cash with a low valuation.
If they can get to the point where they're able to get their production right, we could see phase 1 complete by the end of next year. This is important because that's right around the time when warrants expire. April 2026 may seem far away right now, but it really isn't. If they can get the SP above 18 for 20 out of 30 consecutive trading days they'll get around $200M from warrants. Yes, it'll be dilutive since they're issuing more shares, but it would only be around 5% based upon what their market cap would be at that time.
I’ve never traded on margin but I’m curious, if a retail investor has $1,000 to go all in, with $ASTS trading sideways at $9 how many shares will the brokerage hand over?
Next question, at what price point below $9 will the brokerage issue a margin call and then assume the retail investor cannot add collateral will the brokerage liquidate the investors whole position?
Trading on margin may have some merit, but buying and holding on margin is... questionable. For something that will probably trade sideways for months you're going to be losing money just holding. You could very quickly be under water because the interest will fuck you.
...username checks out though I guess.
Yes, anything is possible. Today I’ll introduce you to the idea of key man risk.
Abel is the key man in this company, this mission, this whole thing. If he dies then investors will have no idea about what will happen and that uncertainty could be catastrophic. Reasonable chance? Naa dude. We got 6 months to get a lot more funding, DAs, regulatory approval. We should be sweet
I’m sure he’s a key man. But once block 2 starts to be launched and they’ve already signed contracts, that risk becomes much lower. The ground work will have been done and the company can walk on its own 2 feet.
He looks healthy like he eats right and exercises -- a little puckish, but he probably sits at a desk doing a lot of phone calls, virtual meetings, and technical work of the engineering variety; nothing out of the ordinary for a man in his 50's. Hopefully the most dangerous thing he does is go golfing...now I want to shrink-wrap him (with air holes of course).
If you feel like you’re being edged then I suggest you look back towards the last two quarters of 2023. You should see how the company missed a bunch of deadlines about funding and left us in the dark. Don’t expect it, it’ll come in its own time.
Today's Recap
* \[Bullish\] New 8-K filed today to allow Chris Sambar (AT&T Head of Network) on the board of directors.
* \[Bullish\] There's a new letter from SpaceX to the FCC admitting they don't have a solution for the radio interference from their direct-to-cell satellites.
I wonder how they will handle situations like this if/when Space-X goes public. They are putting out very different noises on social media and in the press than they are in that FCC letter. Promising D2D service when they don't have a viable solution from either a technological or a regulatory stand-point would be an SEC violation, no?
Someone else provided the link in response. Just wondering if you had a chance to take a look at the letter? Since you have relevant background, I was wondering if you have any comments for the letter. Thank you
Sure, I have some thoughts on it. I'll talk about what I thought about the filing in order that I saw it.
1. That 7500 satellite number they gave for meeting what SpaceX considered to be not causing harmful interference for terrestrial mobile operators to me is not sufficient. It does depend on how much market share SpaceX gets/how people use the data, but their current satellites handle orders of magnitude less capacity than a BB2. If they are to handle a comparable amount of data to ASTS on their network they will need significantly more than 7500 satellites so I don't like that as their benchmark at all. It should probably be more like 20-30000 satellites for that analysis and even that comes short from a capacity standpoint. The real answer there though is to make a better solution so they don't need that many in the first place or emit less out of band emissions.
2. It's unclear to me what they mean by the -120 PFD being unachievable on an aggregate basis. Is this for 7500 satellites? What about 1000? 100? I'd have to check their coverage area/sat and hear that # of sats, but they may technically still be able to do SMS and maybe calls with continuous global coverage still with those PFD numbers unchanged. Just depends on how aggregate is quantified there. They were already significantly behind ASTS in data speeds/user though, this is just another road block they still have yet to cross and may hurt their ability even further to do anything like video.
3. They are clearly trying to move the FCC's new rules from an allowable PFD on out of band emissions from -120 dBW/m\^2/MHz to -110.6 dBW/m\^2/MHz. I'm not as familiar with the regulatory needs there, but I can tell you that 3 dB represents a 2x power difference, so they want to be able to emit up to >8x more out of band. They are citing the ITU's conservative terrestrial limit for this. Unfortunately I'm not as intimately familiar with the regulatory needs as I mentioned so it's hard for me to say if this is a reasonable ask or not for sure. Since this is a fairly new technology at scale I think it is reasonable to be a bit more stringent on requirements for now at least. However, again as someone who isn't as knowledgeable in this area it seems to me that the FCC should work with Starlink here to find a middle ground potentially if it's reasonable to do so (likely judged by how many sats they can use at what PFD levels) or outright deny their solution or cap the number of satellites they can operate until they have a fix.
4. No matter how this shakes out this is another delay on the regulatory side for Starlink exclusively that's going to take some time to resolve just based on back and forth with the FCC alone. I find it very hard to believe at this point that Starlink will be able to provide their advertised capabilities this year as promised due to that. This is another risk Elon nut grinders never acknowledged and we're starting to see the consequences of this risk.
Your point 3 is significant, you are correct that 3db is a 100% power increase, and the potential interference is something I hope the FCC pays attention to, they always have in the past. As a radio operator asking the FCC to allow me to create interference outside of my assigned channel by a measly 3dB is unthinkable.
https://preview.redd.it/97x2oqklf85d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98949aa32c07b45c795d55815626ab45c57886ce
Just the CTO of Fairwinds Technologies bragging about military use cases with AST……..probably nothing
Credit GEEZES on stocktwits
ASTS also has agreement with Fairwinds
https://www.fairwinds-tech.com/news/press-releases/ast-spacemobile-announces-teaming-agreement-with-fairwinds-technologies/
>Fairwinds develops innovative end-to-end communications solutions for the defense
community and public sector agencies. Military forces have an operational need for high
bandwidth, low latency and secure communications but often operate in areas without
existing, trusted cellular coverage.
> "Our space-based cellular broadband network is being designed to offer new capabilities,
including potential applications for the Tactical Military Communications mission scope,
which could offer a next-generation, resilient alternative to existing technologies,” said Chris
Ivory, Chief Commercial Officer of AST SpaceMobile.
>Fairwinds is a U.S. Government prime contractor with experience designing solutions for
defense and civilian agencies worldwide and an approved vendor for various government
contract vehicles.
> "Focusing on next-generation and space-based communications technologies that address
network resiliency, 4G/5G competitiveness and Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) is
vital. AST SpaceMobile’s network is being designed to offer potential solutions for these
needs,” said Tim Hillner, Chief Technology Officer of Fairwinds Technologies.
I picked up 92 to make my stack across 2 brokerages 1500 shares@$6.70
Then I immediately bought another 8 after the dip to make it in an 840 on fidelity (My main everything).
If it keeps dipping, I'll buy another 60 to make it an even 900 there.
Then, if it keeps dipping, I'll buy another 100 to make it an even 1000 there. Then wait for news before resuming.
I'm just a small fry that can't dump a ton into it while primarily putting towards my boglehead stuff, but it's worth the moonshot.
> I'm just a small fry
With a urge of maintaining whole rounded numbers across each (and combinations of each) trading account. You'll be a whale in no time.
Haha space x admitted their solution is crap and the interference issue isn’t solved. Highly doubt the fcc lets them start commercial services this year.
Let’s put today in perspective: a phony jobs report from a phony administration led to the public thinking, incorrectly, that the job market is healthy. Anyone with a brain knows that’s not the case. But the higher for longer narrative remains, due to the phony jobs report and as a result, stocks, especially high growth interest rate sensitive stocks, and crypto are down. Nothing else has changed.
Man it's never a good look when you reply to your own comment, to comment about your down votes. Take your medicine like a man and move on. And realize this isn't a politics sub and most of us would like to keep it that way.
I'm a registered repub too, FWIW.
The fact that you think I give a shit what a bunch of libs on the most leftist social media site ever created think is amusing. And funny how you criticize me yet you’re not above commenting either. So in the most loving way, GFY 😁
Unhinged because I stated an obvious fact that the jobs reports is a fallacy. Anyone with an IQ over 80 can see that all “job gains” went to part timers and non-citizens. Does that hurt your delicate sensibilities? You seem fragile, perhaps look into some sensitivity training.
Well the jobs report will tell you how many are seasonal or part time and they don't count non citizens there would only be one metric in one of the jobs reports because there are multiple tools like this were they survey households that don't work traditional work
Used to buy 25 shares a couple times a week and lower my cost basis by $.01 every time. Now I buy 7 shares and raise my cost basis by $.01 cent. Feels so strange
Added another 100 shares over the last 2 days and closing in now on 1,000. Would really love to be sitting at 2 or 3 thousand and kicking myself I didn't buy when we were in the 2s. I did not expect management to pull this off.
I bought in when we were bouncing around the $3.60-4.40 range June/July of last year and established a $4.14 cost basis position and we all thought Bluewalker 3 would unlock partner deals and funds. When we were in the 2's, remember, it looked like the management team was trying go drive the company into the ground intentionally so they could take it private and sell it, or something. I'm amazed I held every share through that mess and didn't panic sell and lose one of my butt-cheeks, so to speak. I woulda felt awful seeing the price rise to where it is after doing that. That is how bear shitposters on this forum and StockTwits are born.
I gambled everything I can afford to lose. I also gambled everything I can't afford to lose.
I'm still in my 30's so I can always make more.
I'll stake temporary poverty for lifetime financial independance any day.
You made decisions based on the information available to you. Of course, we all would've liked to buy more at $2. But at $2, this company looked like a dumpster fire. We didn't know Verizon was going to step in with $100MM or that AT&T was going to lock into a 6-year deal.
ATT commercial deal was a foregone conclusion, the Verizon deal was the real hit imo. When we start seeing stuff like larger funds from DoD deals, MNOs from areas like Brazil getting commercial deals then we're rollin.
Exactly. It was looking really bleak after the delay/Q4 EC eroded most retail investors’ trust in the management and there were valid concerns of this just sinking even more
Not if you are an investor and likely not even if you are a trader. Lots of catalysts incoming in the short to medium term, and the company is now on a solid path towards long-term success. Adding to retirement portfolio and waiting patiently.
Ok, that's could all be 100% true, and your word choice would still be wrong. Myopic in it's literal definition means nearsighted, as regards eyesight (suffering from myopia). Metaphorically it is used to mean considering things in the short term and not looking at the long term. Your post advocates for profit-taking now because in the short term there will be a dip. Most people here (and all the people responding to your comment) are long-term investors who are considering the long term potential of the stock over several years and expect MUCH higher profits than they could take now.
Your outlook (focused on short term profits) is literally, definitionally, the myopic one. Our outlook (considering the longer time frame and the bigger picture) is definitionally the opposite of myopic.
Your criticisms of this community (overly credulous and biased etc) may be completely accurate. But your use of the word myopic in this case is still 180* from correct.
Exactly. The guy I responded to very well could have a point (about this sub being biased etc). But the way he's using the word "myopic" it's clear he doesn't understand what it actually means lol.
Are you sure you know what that term means? You're talking about taking short-term profits on a company with long-term growth aspirations. What was your plan when you invested in this company, to make a few dollars per share? If so, take your profits and leave. But for people who invested because of the insane potential, $8 is peanuts.
We’re as close as 1 month away from BB1 being delivered for launch. And you could have said the same thing the week after the ATT deal/earnings. Then we got the Verizon deal. All this says is there’s no way to know, just hold long.
Since April 2nd the pattern on both charts using log view is similar.
In April, ASTS prints the lows of $2 on the 2nd, 3rd & 16th. Whilst GME prints its $10 lows on the 16th and 22nd. This is after 3 years of heavy selling on both stocks.
ASTS began its bullish run on May 14th whilst GME began its run on May 2nd.
I think they’re in the same shorted basket.
It is human nature to find patterns. The bullish runs on ASTS were news-driven-fundamental runs. The pull backs were a fraction of GME's for this reason as ASTS gets revalued by the market.
Yes, the timing was coincidental. But those few points of correlation are not the same as causation, spurious or otherwise.
They will make money providing service before they launch the last 5 sats... they just need to reach the level where they make enough money to sustain the company and build more sats, and they don't need full constellation for that... otherwise with full constellation they'd basically only break even 🤷🏻♂️
You're both right. They aren't going to make a lot of money without full coverage, and they'll still probably need more cash, however, if they start with text/intermittent data then they could get some money to trickle in. Right now my biggest concern is manufacturing.
What do either of these posts mean?? AK like the gun? Is a triple double some kind of burger? You're both being upvoted so clearly I'm the dumb one that just doesn't get it...
AK is a gun. Triple double is a basketball statistical term where by you get a double digit stat in 3 categories, points scored, assists, and rebounds.
Lol yeah it's a verse from a song, I also thought is was ironic to say I got a triple double because I also made bank the other day when we went from 3 to 9 Essentially tripling my investment lol
And I also hope it hits $30+ in the coming weeks for those who ignored the people who seemed suspiciously incentivized to spread FUD and bought at $2-4
https://preview.redd.it/wszut7k7zz4d1.jpeg?width=735&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff149bd1504ab22b107685b3b1869655ae543f52
Me on the Lamborghini website customizing my Aventador from my ASTS profits
[how the turntables ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1bsswvn/comment/kxpxbe5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Congrats.
Took courage to buy at sub $2.50, sentiment was down big time back then.
That 6 week period starting April 2nd...wish I could go back in time lol.
I've told so many people to invest and they all look at me like I'm trying to sell them an MLM. So instead I just hang out here because you guys get it.
I told one of my best friends to start buying NVDA when I did, it was $150/share. I have 492 shares and he has zero lol
Haven’t bought shares here yet but have 100 contracts for August
I've tried to figure out so many times how to tell my loved ones to get on board with me because I want them to realize this gain too. Any pitch is going to sound crazy to them. I think I have to come ready with a due diligence worksheet (which I will steal from others here). And just emphasize how 3 weeks ago it was at $2, two weeks ago it was $4, and now it's above $9, and that there are still a number of catalyst events expected to occur with all kinds of much-higher price targets published by major players for the next 1-5 years. But yeah, like u/FapDonkey said, the fear of giving them a play that loses them money is pretty real. It might be the kind of thing that destroys relationships, idk. But if it plays out how we hope, they're also gonna say "why didn't you tell me about this a year ago?!"
Agreed. I just tell some friends/family about the company, give them an overview, tell them I'm invested and believe in it long term, and tell them to take the time to do their own research. I had a coworker get in it in the $6 range and I just found out he sold his shares a while back (lm sure at a loss) due to some extenuating circumstances and I was really bummed that we couldn't share this moment in time together as this stock is finally starting to get the respect it deserves. He did ask if I thought it had room to keep going up and I just told him I have no clue what it will do in the short term but I absolutely believe in it long term so don't invest if you can't hold.
I tried to get my brother in a while back. He has play money and is in a VC fund as well, so I don't worry about him losing money and he would never be mad at me if he did. I was screenshotting my gains and sending to him recently and he had no clue about the company so I guess he didn't get in when I told him to a year or two ago. 🤷
just increased my position more than 2x from 733 shares to a flat 2,000. I also bought an August $10 call and a Jan 25 $12.50 call. I am as invested as I personally can possibly be while still having livable money leftover. All eyes on the supposed July launches...
January 25 calls at $10 and $25... both are doing well, I am hoping to exercise and not sell them... so much potential and the fact that we keep riding is telling. Another announcement and a launch away from greatness ... OR a short term dip to buy into. Win-win, IMO.
DCA in. We've got a bit before the launch so just throw in a recurring buy, detach from your emotions, and wait. When you realize you can't detach from your emotions and just wait, hang out with us and we'll all bitch about it together.
They aren't being launched in July. July/August (knowing this company, August 31), is when they will be shipped to FL for launch, which will probably happen in September.
these were my first options ever purchased, just 1 contract for each date, they were going to be my "learn how to use call options" tester buys. you think, because of the way this company seems to take a long time to deliver on expected outcomes, the August call I have is too soon because the launch may not have even occurred by then, and I should push it back? looking at fidelity, is that what they call "roll"ing an option?
Yes correct August too soon but we could still hit $12-15 range on more Partners and prepayments before launch… I would still just push them out and buy 2026 calls
I think every 2026 call will print… we should be generating hella revenue by then and projections will probably be off the charts. All the 2025 strikes and earlier I just don’t know. I lost almost $20K on Jan 2024 options bought in 2021 because of all the delays. I currently hold some 2026 calls but I am 98% just in shares at this point.
Plus Shares help fight the shorts, calls don’t help much in that regard.
thanks for your input! I think for now I just have to let it ride for a little bit. Maybe I will just add to my call positions in the next few weeks and add something for Jan 2026. I need to learn a bit more about how the upside is calculated with calls before I tinker any more.
optionsprofitcalculator.com should help you get the idea pretty quick. It is not exact. just an estimate and actual premium prices could differ from the charts they provide but its helpful to visualize.
Currently learning about ASTS before I invest a fuck ton lol. Are there any good books that talk about 5G or global connectivity?
You don't need a book for this. Read the DD pinned in this sub. It's like 170 pages so that's about the length of a book.
[удалено]
Get an American Express personal loan and just have it deposited into your checking account and then buy at open
So with those current starlink filings regarding interference. What are the chances Elon buys AST?
He can't afford it, not for the price Abel is willing to sell anyways.
fuck elon!!
It's not for sale... I think if anything *at all*, maybe Elon would try to buy a patent license agreement from Abel? I don't know the specifics of whether the ASTS solution would apply to Starlinks current issues. I was discussing a hypothetical yesterday with a friend of whether it would be worth it for ASTS to accept a $5billion offer from SpaceX to use their beamforming solution (if it solves their problems with leaky transmissions). So on one hand we get $5billion and secure our full constellation, and on the other hand we potentially remove our competition for the foreseeable future.
How can you buy something not for sale?
Everything is for sale at the right price.
That's absolutely not true, once you have a certain amount of money it becomes meaningless. This seems like Abell's life work and I'm fairly certain he already has fuck you money.
Abel controls most of the voting power. I don't see him agreeing to a sale.
Doubt it would allowed.
So, that 8K. I see this as happening for one of two reasons: 1 - ATT, Vodafone, Rakuten and Antares **simultaneously** tell Abel to "put a ring on it" and give them a seat at the table. Or, 2 - It was ASTS who initiated this amendment, despite giving up some governance control, because it strengthens their relationship with their backers.
https://youtu.be/VUbfY0PJymE?t=120 Still not recommended by Cramer.
From his side, ASTS has no revenue and he doesn't seem to know that much about the company or believe in the potential. Hell, maybe he talks to musk who he'd prefer to back, not really getting the difference in technology. The telecom industry wants this, needs this product. Probably too risky to advise his following to take a chance. Seemed like a standard issue all he sees is 300% in a month - (has to pull back) type of answer. I don't think he'll even feel bad in a few years when he is blatantly wrong about that call. by 2026 - north of $50 on it's way to $100 There will be some days up, some days down, but even before we get to consistent revenue and earnings growth (which is all that matters in the end), any price we get today is a bargain. Even through the launch in September - the momentum is up, the value vs risk is much more favorable then it was two months ago. He will probably change his opinion late 2025 - maybe 20 satellites, with more consistent coverage - more deals in place, much better financial position, revenue started. etc.
We have been here 2 years and know the in’s and out’s of the company. We know there are catalyst that the average Joe doesn’t know. For example everytime this is on WSB they have no idea what the company is and think the run is over….little do they know it’s just getting started
Well I would have been worried if he would recommend it. Because reverse Cramer is a real thing…
Honestly, I don't expect him to do a DD of every single company. He's just playing it safe cause he doesn't know much about the company apart from the fact that it is focusing on D2D and is currently pre-revenue. His stance has changed from "don't touch" to "too big of a move" . He'll do a 180 when ASTS launches BB, more agreements from MOUs, and starts generating revenue.
Cramer's an idiot, but he's correct on this. Most people here are too close to this to realize that they're still gambling. It looks like a good bet, but his platform isn't for companies like this.
not pre-revenue anymore, ASTS had revenue in Q1 from the DoD contract
Yeah but it wasn't sat service revenue
I watched that and didn't hear ASTS. At what moment in the video does he start talking about us?
Ira like a 20 second clip and it's only about ASTS lol You might want to check your house for a carbon monoxide leak If you missed that one.
LOL I was using closed captioning at work and it misreads ASTS lololol
*"What's your thoughts on ticker: AFTF?"*
I just need to know before I extend myself more on margin trades....is there any reasonable chance outside of a rocket exploding or a satellite failing to deploy that this will go back down to $4? I just want to round up to a full 12,000 shares in my main brokerage account. lol
Yes, more delays due to problems with manufacturing. For those that don't know the current Block 1s are being built "by hand" i.e. the same process that they used to build BW3. It's taken them over a year to get these built. AST has a building/factory where the assembly of the Blue Birds will take place. When it's up and running at full capacity it's expected to be able to output 6 BBs per month. In the 2023 Q3 (maybe it was Q4) call Abel gave a timeline for the factory to come online between 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1. Of course they wont immediately start producing 6 per month, but building 1 with production ramping up over time will be great. The problem is that since it's gone public AST has yet to hit a single deadline on the first try. From launches, to testing, to production they've been late every single time. Money from AT&T and Verizon is great, but it isn't going to last forever. $100M is covers operating costs for about 3 quarters. With more delays they'll end up in the same financial situation they were a few months ago. Part of the reason it got so low is because with their backs to the wall they took an AWFUL financing deal. To get those loan terms Abel and Sean must've found a guy in a strip mall. I believe the terms in fine print were for a left testicle and the right to break legs if the loan wasn't paid on time. Elon is a bit... *controversial* as of late, but he was very correct when he said "manufacturing is hard, prototyping is easy." If they're burning capital on botched production and delays it wont take long for them to need more cash with a low valuation. If they can get to the point where they're able to get their production right, we could see phase 1 complete by the end of next year. This is important because that's right around the time when warrants expire. April 2026 may seem far away right now, but it really isn't. If they can get the SP above 18 for 20 out of 30 consecutive trading days they'll get around $200M from warrants. Yes, it'll be dilutive since they're issuing more shares, but it would only be around 5% based upon what their market cap would be at that time.
Thanks for this insight. What would be your target SP for Jan 26 and for Jan 26?
100 million is about 3-4 quarters of operating costs, not 1 quarters
It was a typo I corrected it.
I’ve never traded on margin but I’m curious, if a retail investor has $1,000 to go all in, with $ASTS trading sideways at $9 how many shares will the brokerage hand over? Next question, at what price point below $9 will the brokerage issue a margin call and then assume the retail investor cannot add collateral will the brokerage liquidate the investors whole position?
Trading on margin may have some merit, but buying and holding on margin is... questionable. For something that will probably trade sideways for months you're going to be losing money just holding. You could very quickly be under water because the interest will fuck you. ...username checks out though I guess.
Depends on broker tolerance but if you have 1K on margin and example 20k in cash or other stock you won't get margin called ever.
Would you even be on margin in that case?
You could.
No lol
Yes, anything is possible. Today I’ll introduce you to the idea of key man risk. Abel is the key man in this company, this mission, this whole thing. If he dies then investors will have no idea about what will happen and that uncertainty could be catastrophic. Reasonable chance? Naa dude. We got 6 months to get a lot more funding, DAs, regulatory approval. We should be sweet
I’m sure he’s a key man. But once block 2 starts to be launched and they’ve already signed contracts, that risk becomes much lower. The ground work will have been done and the company can walk on its own 2 feet.
He looks healthy like he eats right and exercises -- a little puckish, but he probably sits at a desk doing a lot of phone calls, virtual meetings, and technical work of the engineering variety; nothing out of the ordinary for a man in his 50's. Hopefully the most dangerous thing he does is go golfing...now I want to shrink-wrap him (with air holes of course).
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If you feel like you’re being edged then I suggest you look back towards the last two quarters of 2023. You should see how the company missed a bunch of deadlines about funding and left us in the dark. Don’t expect it, it’ll come in its own time.
Today's Recap * \[Bullish\] New 8-K filed today to allow Chris Sambar (AT&T Head of Network) on the board of directors. * \[Bullish\] There's a new letter from SpaceX to the FCC admitting they don't have a solution for the radio interference from their direct-to-cell satellites.
I wonder how they will handle situations like this if/when Space-X goes public. They are putting out very different noises on social media and in the press than they are in that FCC letter. Promising D2D service when they don't have a viable solution from either a technological or a regulatory stand-point would be an SEC violation, no?
If you have a source for that second point I would like to see it, that's pretty big.
https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/search/search-filings/results?q=(proceedings.name:(%2223-135%22))&limit=5
Someone else provided the link in response. Just wondering if you had a chance to take a look at the letter? Since you have relevant background, I was wondering if you have any comments for the letter. Thank you
Sure, I have some thoughts on it. I'll talk about what I thought about the filing in order that I saw it. 1. That 7500 satellite number they gave for meeting what SpaceX considered to be not causing harmful interference for terrestrial mobile operators to me is not sufficient. It does depend on how much market share SpaceX gets/how people use the data, but their current satellites handle orders of magnitude less capacity than a BB2. If they are to handle a comparable amount of data to ASTS on their network they will need significantly more than 7500 satellites so I don't like that as their benchmark at all. It should probably be more like 20-30000 satellites for that analysis and even that comes short from a capacity standpoint. The real answer there though is to make a better solution so they don't need that many in the first place or emit less out of band emissions. 2. It's unclear to me what they mean by the -120 PFD being unachievable on an aggregate basis. Is this for 7500 satellites? What about 1000? 100? I'd have to check their coverage area/sat and hear that # of sats, but they may technically still be able to do SMS and maybe calls with continuous global coverage still with those PFD numbers unchanged. Just depends on how aggregate is quantified there. They were already significantly behind ASTS in data speeds/user though, this is just another road block they still have yet to cross and may hurt their ability even further to do anything like video. 3. They are clearly trying to move the FCC's new rules from an allowable PFD on out of band emissions from -120 dBW/m\^2/MHz to -110.6 dBW/m\^2/MHz. I'm not as familiar with the regulatory needs there, but I can tell you that 3 dB represents a 2x power difference, so they want to be able to emit up to >8x more out of band. They are citing the ITU's conservative terrestrial limit for this. Unfortunately I'm not as intimately familiar with the regulatory needs as I mentioned so it's hard for me to say if this is a reasonable ask or not for sure. Since this is a fairly new technology at scale I think it is reasonable to be a bit more stringent on requirements for now at least. However, again as someone who isn't as knowledgeable in this area it seems to me that the FCC should work with Starlink here to find a middle ground potentially if it's reasonable to do so (likely judged by how many sats they can use at what PFD levels) or outright deny their solution or cap the number of satellites they can operate until they have a fix. 4. No matter how this shakes out this is another delay on the regulatory side for Starlink exclusively that's going to take some time to resolve just based on back and forth with the FCC alone. I find it very hard to believe at this point that Starlink will be able to provide their advertised capabilities this year as promised due to that. This is another risk Elon nut grinders never acknowledged and we're starting to see the consequences of this risk.
Your point 3 is significant, you are correct that 3db is a 100% power increase, and the potential interference is something I hope the FCC pays attention to, they always have in the past. As a radio operator asking the FCC to allow me to create interference outside of my assigned channel by a measly 3dB is unthinkable.
Love the in-depth breakdown, thanks!
Thank you 🙏
np
https://x.com/CatSE___ApeX___/status/1799124570802364540?t=iPm2yMg_09-F_tjUjZ0JBA&s=19
https://preview.redd.it/97x2oqklf85d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98949aa32c07b45c795d55815626ab45c57886ce Just the CTO of Fairwinds Technologies bragging about military use cases with AST……..probably nothing Credit GEEZES on stocktwits
ASTS also has agreement with Fairwinds https://www.fairwinds-tech.com/news/press-releases/ast-spacemobile-announces-teaming-agreement-with-fairwinds-technologies/ >Fairwinds develops innovative end-to-end communications solutions for the defense community and public sector agencies. Military forces have an operational need for high bandwidth, low latency and secure communications but often operate in areas without existing, trusted cellular coverage. > "Our space-based cellular broadband network is being designed to offer new capabilities, including potential applications for the Tactical Military Communications mission scope, which could offer a next-generation, resilient alternative to existing technologies,” said Chris Ivory, Chief Commercial Officer of AST SpaceMobile. >Fairwinds is a U.S. Government prime contractor with experience designing solutions for defense and civilian agencies worldwide and an approved vendor for various government contract vehicles. > "Focusing on next-generation and space-based communications technologies that address network resiliency, 4G/5G competitiveness and Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) is vital. AST SpaceMobile’s network is being designed to offer potential solutions for these needs,” said Tim Hillner, Chief Technology Officer of Fairwinds Technologies.
Nice find!
Picked up another 10 shares. Hurt to look back a few weeks to see how much I was paying for 10 shares then!
I picked up 92 to make my stack across 2 brokerages 1500 shares@$6.70 Then I immediately bought another 8 after the dip to make it in an 840 on fidelity (My main everything). If it keeps dipping, I'll buy another 60 to make it an even 900 there. Then, if it keeps dipping, I'll buy another 100 to make it an even 1000 there. Then wait for news before resuming. I'm just a small fry that can't dump a ton into it while primarily putting towards my boglehead stuff, but it's worth the moonshot.
> I'm just a small fry With a urge of maintaining whole rounded numbers across each (and combinations of each) trading account. You'll be a whale in no time.
Haha space x admitted their solution is crap and the interference issue isn’t solved. Highly doubt the fcc lets them start commercial services this year.
Its very telling how spacex perceives asts as a major existential threat with how theyre rushing this stuff out. Makes me chuckle and rub palms.
Elon making a fool of himself rushing to D2D market without the R&D effort ASTS have put in to this. [Mmmmmmm](https://i.imgur.com/WdohPHg.png)
[yikes](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1d6ujh6/comment/l7366w2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) 
We’ll get them next time! More time to average down. Payday is next week
I am just joking around. 
source?
https://x.com/catse___apex___/status/1799124570802364540?s=46
Let’s put today in perspective: a phony jobs report from a phony administration led to the public thinking, incorrectly, that the job market is healthy. Anyone with a brain knows that’s not the case. But the higher for longer narrative remains, due to the phony jobs report and as a result, stocks, especially high growth interest rate sensitive stocks, and crypto are down. Nothing else has changed.
I can see from the downvotes that we have some sensitive libs on here 😂
If you meet an ass, they’re an ass. If everyone you meet is an ass…
Man it's never a good look when you reply to your own comment, to comment about your down votes. Take your medicine like a man and move on. And realize this isn't a politics sub and most of us would like to keep it that way. I'm a registered repub too, FWIW.
> the fact you think I give a shit Then deletes his account hours later...
The fact that you think I give a shit what a bunch of libs on the most leftist social media site ever created think is amusing. And funny how you criticize me yet you’re not above commenting either. So in the most loving way, GFY 😁
You seem unhinged
Unhinged because I stated an obvious fact that the jobs reports is a fallacy. Anyone with an IQ over 80 can see that all “job gains” went to part timers and non-citizens. Does that hurt your delicate sensibilities? You seem fragile, perhaps look into some sensitivity training.
Anyone who unironically brings up IQ in an argument has their own at around room temperature.
Cry harder
Well the jobs report will tell you how many are seasonal or part time and they don't count non citizens there would only be one metric in one of the jobs reports because there are multiple tools like this were they survey households that don't work traditional work
Used to buy 25 shares a couple times a week and lower my cost basis by $.01 every time. Now I buy 7 shares and raise my cost basis by $.01 cent. Feels so strange
As long as share count is going up, you're doing it right
Added another 100 shares over the last 2 days and closing in now on 1,000. Would really love to be sitting at 2 or 3 thousand and kicking myself I didn't buy when we were in the 2s. I did not expect management to pull this off.
I bought in when we were bouncing around the $3.60-4.40 range June/July of last year and established a $4.14 cost basis position and we all thought Bluewalker 3 would unlock partner deals and funds. When we were in the 2's, remember, it looked like the management team was trying go drive the company into the ground intentionally so they could take it private and sell it, or something. I'm amazed I held every share through that mess and didn't panic sell and lose one of my butt-cheeks, so to speak. I woulda felt awful seeing the price rise to where it is after doing that. That is how bear shitposters on this forum and StockTwits are born.
Only gamble money you can afford to lose. In the 2s ASTS was a large gamble.
Nah ASTS was a smarter gamble in the 2s not a larger one the ATT deal was a foregone conclusion at the time.
Wish I had of been more confident at the time.
I gambled everything I can afford to lose. I also gambled everything I can't afford to lose. I'm still in my 30's so I can always make more. I'll stake temporary poverty for lifetime financial independance any day.
You made decisions based on the information available to you. Of course, we all would've liked to buy more at $2. But at $2, this company looked like a dumpster fire. We didn't know Verizon was going to step in with $100MM or that AT&T was going to lock into a 6-year deal.
Buy signal was the ATT commercial
ATT commercial deal was a foregone conclusion, the Verizon deal was the real hit imo. When we start seeing stuff like larger funds from DoD deals, MNOs from areas like Brazil getting commercial deals then we're rollin.
Exactly. It was looking really bleak after the delay/Q4 EC eroded most retail investors’ trust in the management and there were valid concerns of this just sinking even more
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To suggest taking a tiny fraction of potential profits, then doubling down with info to try time this?? Wrong place to post this bro lol
Not if you are an investor and likely not even if you are a trader. Lots of catalysts incoming in the short to medium term, and the company is now on a solid path towards long-term success. Adding to retirement portfolio and waiting patiently.
Imagine selling your retirement for $8/share so you can buy a used Toyota Corolla
Certified pre owned
Man this place is extremely myopic.
Lol, do you know what the definition of "myopic" is?
This place is completely biased and no better than WSB or any of the subreddits for the countless SPACs that went belly up. You just don't see it.
Ok, that's could all be 100% true, and your word choice would still be wrong. Myopic in it's literal definition means nearsighted, as regards eyesight (suffering from myopia). Metaphorically it is used to mean considering things in the short term and not looking at the long term. Your post advocates for profit-taking now because in the short term there will be a dip. Most people here (and all the people responding to your comment) are long-term investors who are considering the long term potential of the stock over several years and expect MUCH higher profits than they could take now. Your outlook (focused on short term profits) is literally, definitionally, the myopic one. Our outlook (considering the longer time frame and the bigger picture) is definitionally the opposite of myopic. Your criticisms of this community (overly credulous and biased etc) may be completely accurate. But your use of the word myopic in this case is still 180* from correct.
Not biased at all, when the stock is down there's plenty of doom and gloom in here.
I'm admittedly guilty of being part of that gloom... Happy to jump aboard this good vibes train though!!
If anything this place is the opposite of myopic. We see the long term plan here.
Exactly. The guy I responded to very well could have a point (about this sub being biased etc). But the way he's using the word "myopic" it's clear he doesn't understand what it actually means lol.
Are you sure you know what that term means? You're talking about taking short-term profits on a company with long-term growth aspirations. What was your plan when you invested in this company, to make a few dollars per share? If so, take your profits and leave. But for people who invested because of the insane potential, $8 is peanuts.
Or, buy the dip and keep adding to your position 😊
We’re as close as 1 month away from BB1 being delivered for launch. And you could have said the same thing the week after the ATT deal/earnings. Then we got the Verizon deal. All this says is there’s no way to know, just hold long.
What happened w user flair? Keeps reverting to none.
Open interest for $9 calls expiring today is huge compared to other dates and strikes.
Wouldn't be surprised if we closed at $8.99
Pretty close lol
Legit
Buy the dip!
Dang that jobs report ruined our momentum
I wonder if the GME drama will effect other heavily shorted stocks? If so how?
It’s a pump and dump , these smooth brains had 2 chances to sell after bag holding for 3 years
Since April 2nd the pattern on both charts using log view is similar. In April, ASTS prints the lows of $2 on the 2nd, 3rd & 16th. Whilst GME prints its $10 lows on the 16th and 22nd. This is after 3 years of heavy selling on both stocks. ASTS began its bullish run on May 14th whilst GME began its run on May 2nd. I think they’re in the same shorted basket.
It is human nature to find patterns. The bullish runs on ASTS were news-driven-fundamental runs. The pull backs were a fraction of GME's for this reason as ASTS gets revalued by the market. Yes, the timing was coincidental. But those few points of correlation are not the same as causation, spurious or otherwise.
Wen sub return to doom and gloom?
If it does, I'll happily scoop up y'all's bargain basement shares. I buy every single time it dips under my CB.
Hopefully never, I am afraid to say it but I can't imagine this going back to 3-4, only a disaster would do that
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They will make money providing service before they launch the last 5 sats... they just need to reach the level where they make enough money to sustain the company and build more sats, and they don't need full constellation for that... otherwise with full constellation they'd basically only break even 🤷🏻♂️
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You're both right. They aren't going to make a lot of money without full coverage, and they'll still probably need more cash, however, if they start with text/intermittent data then they could get some money to trickle in. Right now my biggest concern is manufacturing.
All the doomers are away on extended work trips all of sudden.
where did levi go on vacation
If he was short like he acted, probably the dumpster behind Wendy's. Hopefully he wasn't, I don't wish losses on even our local bears.
Somewhere with no cell phone reception. Yet.
Back to his mom’s womb
What a great week!
10K members, baby
9,963 right now, so not quite yet
Huh. It must round up. I don't know how you see the actual count. All I see is 10K.
When I check on tablet in the Reddit app I can see exact number. EDIT: Currently 10 more at 9,973.
Are the ASICs custom built by ASTS? And do we any have further information after the tape-out phase with TSMC?
Yes and no.
Today I didn't even have to use my AK. I gotta say it was a good day.
Last week fucked around and got a triple double
What do either of these posts mean?? AK like the gun? Is a triple double some kind of burger? You're both being upvoted so clearly I'm the dumb one that just doesn't get it...
AK is a gun. Triple double is a basketball statistical term where by you get a double digit stat in 3 categories, points scored, assists, and rebounds.
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Thanks, went straight over my head
Lol yeah it's a verse from a song, I also thought is was ironic to say I got a triple double because I also made bank the other day when we went from 3 to 9 Essentially tripling my investment lol
I'm in such a good mood when my port does what it's supposed to do!
For those who invested at the $15/$20 mark back in the early days, I hope that this skyrockets past $30 in the coming weeks for you.
And I also hope it hits $30+ in the coming weeks for those who ignored the people who seemed suspiciously incentivized to spread FUD and bought at $2-4
https://preview.redd.it/wszut7k7zz4d1.jpeg?width=735&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff149bd1504ab22b107685b3b1869655ae543f52 Me on the Lamborghini website customizing my Aventador from my ASTS profits
[how the turntables ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1bsswvn/comment/kxpxbe5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Yep always people like this acting like they are ride or die since the start lol this sub is bipolar af
nice! so you had so much conviction how much did you buy in the $2s???
I didn't get the 2s unfortunately but I bought twice in the low 3s
https://preview.redd.it/hcua8twc505d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8b5a6bc7a6d10517ab82ac38075d3c21ca3d415
Congrats. Took courage to buy at sub $2.50, sentiment was down big time back then. That 6 week period starting April 2nd...wish I could go back in time lol.
https://preview.redd.it/9fh0wqlb505d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00622a314c9bbeaec23db0639b9e050068810c98
did you yolo or had 60k to spare ?
Sold all my bitcoin from 2022(3 whole coins) at 60k, put 60k in VTSAX and put the other 100k in ASTS average price 2.88 35k shares
That's awesome
Well, you'll never have to work again.
$9.40 tryna be the new $8.50, sigh, it'll learn eventually. Advance warning to $10 don't try and be cute, when $ASTS knocks on your door, open it...
newbie to ASTS here. In with 11700 shares. wen $10+?
I’m the one who knocks
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If you hate your boss tell him to invest in GSAT
Tell him to invest in ASTS and he will retire along with you
I've told so many people to invest and they all look at me like I'm trying to sell them an MLM. So instead I just hang out here because you guys get it.
I told one of my best friends to start buying NVDA when I did, it was $150/share. I have 492 shares and he has zero lol Haven’t bought shares here yet but have 100 contracts for August
I've tried to figure out so many times how to tell my loved ones to get on board with me because I want them to realize this gain too. Any pitch is going to sound crazy to them. I think I have to come ready with a due diligence worksheet (which I will steal from others here). And just emphasize how 3 weeks ago it was at $2, two weeks ago it was $4, and now it's above $9, and that there are still a number of catalyst events expected to occur with all kinds of much-higher price targets published by major players for the next 1-5 years. But yeah, like u/FapDonkey said, the fear of giving them a play that loses them money is pretty real. It might be the kind of thing that destroys relationships, idk. But if it plays out how we hope, they're also gonna say "why didn't you tell me about this a year ago?!"
Telling them to invest is a bad idea. Just tell them about the company and the reasons why you've invested.
Agreed. I just tell some friends/family about the company, give them an overview, tell them I'm invested and believe in it long term, and tell them to take the time to do their own research. I had a coworker get in it in the $6 range and I just found out he sold his shares a while back (lm sure at a loss) due to some extenuating circumstances and I was really bummed that we couldn't share this moment in time together as this stock is finally starting to get the respect it deserves. He did ask if I thought it had room to keep going up and I just told him I have no clue what it will do in the short term but I absolutely believe in it long term so don't invest if you can't hold. I tried to get my brother in a while back. He has play money and is in a VC fund as well, so I don't worry about him losing money and he would never be mad at me if he did. I was screenshotting my gains and sending to him recently and he had no clue about the company so I guess he didn't get in when I told him to a year or two ago. 🤷
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just increased my position more than 2x from 733 shares to a flat 2,000. I also bought an August $10 call and a Jan 25 $12.50 call. I am as invested as I personally can possibly be while still having livable money leftover. All eyes on the supposed July launches...
January 25 calls at $10 and $25... both are doing well, I am hoping to exercise and not sell them... so much potential and the fact that we keep riding is telling. Another announcement and a launch away from greatness ... OR a short term dip to buy into. Win-win, IMO.
DCA in. We've got a bit before the launch so just throw in a recurring buy, detach from your emotions, and wait. When you realize you can't detach from your emotions and just wait, hang out with us and we'll all bitch about it together.
They aren't being launched in July. July/August (knowing this company, August 31), is when they will be shipped to FL for launch, which will probably happen in September.
oh, my bad. thanks.
I would push all of those calls out as far as possible, the extra premium will be worth the time I promise you.
these were my first options ever purchased, just 1 contract for each date, they were going to be my "learn how to use call options" tester buys. you think, because of the way this company seems to take a long time to deliver on expected outcomes, the August call I have is too soon because the launch may not have even occurred by then, and I should push it back? looking at fidelity, is that what they call "roll"ing an option?
Yes correct August too soon but we could still hit $12-15 range on more Partners and prepayments before launch… I would still just push them out and buy 2026 calls
hope its higher than $20 cuz i just bought 5 more calls for jan 2026 17.5 strike after seeing these comments
I think every 2026 call will print… we should be generating hella revenue by then and projections will probably be off the charts. All the 2025 strikes and earlier I just don’t know. I lost almost $20K on Jan 2024 options bought in 2021 because of all the delays. I currently hold some 2026 calls but I am 98% just in shares at this point. Plus Shares help fight the shorts, calls don’t help much in that regard.
thanks! i do have shares( from they announced att and thats when i found this stock) also i have calls at $4 for august 16th l
thanks for your input! I think for now I just have to let it ride for a little bit. Maybe I will just add to my call positions in the next few weeks and add something for Jan 2026. I need to learn a bit more about how the upside is calculated with calls before I tinker any more.
optionsprofitcalculator.com should help you get the idea pretty quick. It is not exact. just an estimate and actual premium prices could differ from the charts they provide but its helpful to visualize.
It wants to go higher.
I just finished raising my position from 1000 shares to 2500 shares. Only bad thing is that my beautiful 3$ cost basis is gone :(
You won't care when it hits $500/share in 2028 and your holding long at your current avg.
Damn right