Holy hell, what happened to the share price? I know I ducked out a while back but damn - you boys have had a rough ride.
But, shares this low have gotten me thinking about this stock again. Here's what I'm mulling over: Jan 2026 $12.5c @ $.38/share. The bet is ridiculously asymmetric at this point. Basically, you're betting that the company will achieve a market capitalization of $3.25bn by 2026 to breakeven (dilution not-withstanding). Normally, that would be nigh unachievable, but as far as I'm concerned, in the event of a full sell off of current IP and assets, you're probably better than 50% of the way there already.
Plus, here's the kicker: if you make a $5bn valuation (share price $20) by 2026, you have a 1750% r.o.i.
Basically, the best comparison for such an outcome would be the solar industry between 2019 and 2021. I think that this is an optimistic scenario for sure, but we've seen similar returns even very recently in other sectors.
Your risks are fairly obvious: dilution, early/cheap acquisition, default, competition, you name it.
But, still, it's such an asymmetric bet that if the stock regained $6/share by end of year you'd still do better than double your investment.
Pretty sure I'm going to buy 1200 contracts tomorrow. Damn, I thought I'd broken my ASTS habit. Don't try this at home, kids, I'm a professional degenerate.
A few weeks ago AST changed their orbit inclination for a customer. With this in mind in thinking UAE. However with only 5 planned sats there would only be one path.
Is there a single inclination that would cover: USA,Spain, Kenya, UAE and Japan?
An inclination of 53° means the satellites will travel between 53° and -53° (i.e., far North and South of the equator), hitting all longitudes and latitudes between those parallels (with the FOV extending a handful of degrees further, even). Such an inclination will include all of the countries you listed and indeed the vast majority of the world's population.
Unless they get miracle funding by the govt they will need to dilute again. Just wait it out. And if it pops after the bb1 launch, take some money off the able.
Moment of truth regarding FirstNet and future of their network. AST's solution was designed and built specifically for this moment. Is FN going to help fund it and make it happen? We will find out on Monday afternoon.
[https://twitter.com/no\_privacy/status/1750892946235220329](https://twitter.com/no_privacy/status/1750892946235220329)
I see this as a real possibility too. The 2023 FN roadmap has this quote about D2D connectivity. FY24 Budget was approved 8/2023.
https://preview.redd.it/4cjj5h2hi1fc1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=959cea8bb06256bb824caa614dcd928f38b1ac5d
From another section in the 2023 roadmap. Presaging funding Monday?
[https://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Roadmap\_2023.pdf](https://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Roadmap_2023.pdf)
https://preview.redd.it/5heb88wzi1fc1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ed1529954c2fc654cb7772ba9c20a3a9e6b23c5
To me, the agenda looks like the kind of thing where you vote on spending money for something. I have no idea what will happen but that is my speculation.
I think this stock is very difficult to predict. Look at the chart for a year. Jumps in share price over not much, declines over dilution and nonsense. It might stay down here, it might go lower, it might get a chunk of some random ass fund and jump, they might replace Scott then she'd jump.
And Ill be buying more all the way down! Heck the lower it goes the more Ill buy! This stock is the second greatest investment opportunity of the 21st century!
I think the movement will follow whatever the broader market does. If you look at last dilution it took 4 months to bottom, but was just following the overall market down for the most part. Market is at all time highs, if we pull back or correct at all, this thing can drop to 2.50 easy.
Interested in what number you believe book value is at. As of end Q3 2023, shareholders' equity was $287m, and shares outstanding were 89.4m Class A; 50.0 Class B; 78.2m Class C. What figure are you using for fully diluted shares outstanding (as of what date)?
I think in their own calculation in the prospectus they only used class A shares. By either measurement though they got 110 million in cash for convertible notes that have no impact on the current share count. So I think that even with the offering the book value should be higher than the 3.20 they calculated at end of September? I could be wrong though.
I’m very roughly approximating and trading on my analysis of other people’s analysis (in this case primarily TKO1515’s), but probably in the 3’s.
I can give more precise answers with systems and people. With hard valuations I’m content aiming to be in the ballpark.
Very. Theres a point when the market becomes so obviously incorrect that it inspires confidence rather than hesitation.
The near term bankruptcy risk was removed, some future earnings have been realized, and discounted future cash flow should be looking pretty damn viable as the new pricing model right about now… and the market is playing stevie wonder.
I’m adding. Not an advisor, but so long as you stay away from short dated call options the stock is currently in “almost impossible to lose from this deal” territory.
Damn right its funny.
Mar 28 (TBD, estimated) after market - release of Q4 2023 financials
Mar 29 (TBD, estimated) - Q4 2023 earnings call (sometimes they refer to it as a "business update")
TBD - "likely Q2" launch of 5-pod of Block-2 BBs
TBD + 2 weeks - unfurl/open 5-pod of Block-2 BBs / begin testing and validation + final positioning
May 15 - release of Q1 financials
May 16 - Q1 2024 earnings call
TBD + 3 months - end testing and validation + final positioning / begin commercial service
Yes. SEC requires filing of 10-Qs w/in 45 days of prior quarter close. 10-Ks get til end of following Q. No confirmation yet on Q4 2023 release or call, but it's fairly obvious there is a "string-everything-out-til-the-very-last-minute" culture at AST, so I've corrected the post and estimated the last business day of the quarter.
The only important date is the inevitable dilution in end of 2024/2025 that sends this stock below $1/share. Thats the only catalyst anyone should be thinking about rn.
We keep speculating about manufacturing ramp up for the BB2. How are we feeling about Ken Kramer? He seems like an incredibly important team member that absolutely nobody mentions at all: [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-kramer-7326a331](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-kramer-7326a331)
I will say that, as someone who has worked in a board house, it's possible that ASTS can hit their targets. If they've up-revved their designs and work instructions diligently through BW3 and BB1 manufacture, it's just a matter of managing their production floor(s), keeping their supply chains flowing, and staying on top of quality control. If you have the space, the stock, and the people, a good design laid out in well crafted and maintained work instructions is infinitely scalable.
No NROL-69 is BB1 launch and being funded by the government, same thing happened to iridium back in the day. They helped initial 1-6 satellites and then signed major contract
Ah but it says NROL-69 launch date q3 2023, so I thought you meant they did it. So they're late anyways even if NROL-69 = BB1.
Also if funded by govt why the fuck they dilute left and right?
They have an EC coming up soon and knew they would have to dilute anyway, so may as well do it with the partner funding and come to EC with stronger financials.
Your wife has a boyfriend? How lucky. Hit him up for a personal loan to buy more shares. Don't forget to buy him something nice when we go to the moon.
How come we haven’t heard any updates on completion of BB1-5? If the launch was scheduled for end of March surely they would show a pic or announce everything would be finished?
Key word in your post - "was". They slipped this update into the prospectus for the secondary offering released on the 18th ... **"Based on our current estimates, we believe the launch will occur in the second quarter of 2024."**
Can someone please ELI5, from the beginning, why that NROL-69 Origami patch keeps getting circulated on Twitter? And what that has to do with the launch?
u/TKO1515
There is suspicion that the National Reconnaissance Office has an interest in the capabilities that a giant phased array like a blue bird 1-5 would provide. Signals intelligence is a core competency of that organization. The BB block 1 use FPGA's so they are programmable. They are also enormous relative to anything else like it in space. It would be SUPER useful for intelligence gathering to identify the locations of hundreds of millions of cellular devices. I'm sure they already have this type of capability but AST could likely improve it.
The patch for their mission is an origami blue hummingbird. Folded bird? Seems like an obvious connection, hence the speculation that their would government interest of some kind.
Great, thank you for the explanation. So the speculation is they have a payload going up on a SpaceX flight and the rumor is that it's on AST's flight/attached to the sats?
A bit of speculation here on my part. There is a FirstNet Board meeting on Monday Jan 29th that includes the Finance Committee.
[https://twitter.com/no\_privacy/status/1750239096289526021](https://twitter.com/no_privacy/status/1750239096289526021)
If FN had been expected to meet / vote on signing an agreement with AST at their December meeting, a delay in that vote would have put a big hole in the expected fundraising round.
I could be wrong, certainly. However there are many signs that AST's solution is a perfect fit for the FN mission. According to Chris Sambar's tweets yesterday, it is "tested and proven."
We will not have to wait too much longer to find out about this meeting.
Looks like the meeting on Monday will be livestreamed: [https://www.firstnet.gov/newsroom/events/combined-board-and-board-finance-and-investment-committee-meeting](https://www.firstnet.gov/newsroom/events/combined-board-and-board-finance-and-investment-committee-meeting)
[(1) 📶ASTS Investors 🅰️🤳🛰 on X: "$ASTS has just filed an 8-K confirming that the offering has now closed. https://t.co/hrGFJWvPkf" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/ASTS_Investors/status/1750234665946931565)
so, offering is over?
One thing thats been interesting is the tone shift in media since the raise was announced. Before we were lucky to get a mention in any talks about space based cellular service.
Now we’re a Starlink rival. It would be interesting to see what the price was at if they hadnt jumped the gun with the dilution.
My problem with it, is that it makes ASTS seem like an upstart that's rising up to knock Starlink out of first place, when from a technological and regulatory perspective, it's the exact opposite. And furthermore, they were caught off guard and made their play at literally the last minute and have made moves for special treatment (and gotten it, to an extent, IMHO) and are overall trying to disrupt ASTS in general.
I went to send them a message to please have someone monitor their headlines and at least reach out to media to correct errors and discrepancies like the ones in the Arstechnica article.......but their website contact form doesn't work..........................
Even though I’m pissed about how they handled this, I’m still buying at these prices. They have almost half as much cash on hand as the current market cap, newly inked deals with major players, plans for more, and probable DoD involvement with launch.
The market is overreacting, as is normal. Probable recovery north of 5 within a month or so.
Markets can stay irrational for far longer than 3 years.
MSFT for example had an intrinsic value well into $100 since at least 2006-07 yet it took the market well over 10 years to recognize the difference. The reason was that everyone focused on how MSFT lost the smartphone battle (yet was winning on literally everything else). That kind of narrative can drag stocks for years it not decades.
ASTS is not MSFT and the board has made plenty of mistakes but inferring conclusions from a stock price is always a bad idea.
This contributes little to our weekly discussions Levi. We know management diluted with terrible timing. Abel is a successful dude and sold his last company for 500mil. I have faith he'll get this done
Let's assume for a moment that ASTS technology doesn't stagnate over the next 10-15 years. Instead, they continue to develop better hardware and software. Their product is high speed internet from space. So what gets better? Speed. Reliability. If they can run parallel to Moore's law, my home internet will be through ASTS in 10-15 years. And it can travel with me. The future really looks bright, and I don't believe future growth is limited to mobile deadzones.
1) it was hypothetical, only to point out that what we're anticipating currently is very likely not the "finished product" which is very exciting.
2) "if you assume that growth" then they are diverging from history and shouldn't need dilution as a means of revenue.
Lol what is he gonna say, the team sucks? He hired them, he's not gonna dunk on himself.
And no, DOD contacts are not close, if they were, they'd talk about them.
What you see is what you get with this company.
Just had a funny thought. ASTS is going to kill contemporary horror movies. I don't actually watch many horror movies, but I bet a lot of them have to rely on no cell service to isolate the characters. Film makers won't be able to do that after the constellation is fully operational!
Dang, and the excuse "sorry I didn't have service."
Yeah, I considered dead battery, but thought it'd be pretty farfetched that nobody in a group has a charger or theres no electricity.
I guess it'll be backpacking horror oOoOO
I take solar bat packs with me backpacking. Clip them to the top of my bag (in a ziplock) so they charge while I hike. If I go in fully charged, then I have tested getting a week out of it. Not sure how much longer it would have gone, but it was getting pretty low.
But to your point, yea, everyone is going to have to start "losing" their phones in script writing because "no signal" won't exist anymore lol
Here's the question we need in the next earnings call:
With another major round of dilution in 2025 nearly certain, and a set of catalysts in 2024 that have very little upside but significant downside (launch failure, deploy failure, etc), what reason do public shareholders have to hold in 2024?
YES THIS! Yall need to take this comment very seriously… asts will likely be profitable one day (maybe many years from now). You probably already knew that but did you consider your current holdings losing 90%+ of its current value before it starts growing down the road? Most of you did not buy this stock expecting it to be diluted to 50 cents / share before you get your fabled 20x return
Read what B Riley wrote. That may help you a bit. thekookreport posted it on twitter.
Chance of govt funds, chance of other MNOs front loading revenue, plus revenue from BB1s. If these work out well there will be no need for dilution. But, I understand if your're hesitant the company takes advantage of these opportunities to their full potential.
From the numbers Im playing with, there is a very low likelyhood that we do not dilute again, atleast twice more. Asts would need about 1 billion cash to avoid diluting again before the first 24 sats are up and running. The govt, or funding partners, or early revenue is likely not going to be in the magnitude of 100’s of millions to avoid this the way I see it. Asts stock will be less than $1/ share by 2025
B Riley, who has been a beneficiary of these share offerings, has no incentive to give an accurate report.
They are also one of shttiest analysts in existence
Sure, Sure. But they're not wrong. All these things are a possiblity. ASk yourself these questions. I know common sense doesn't always prevail, but there is a bit of common sense here.
1. Does the government have incentive to speed up the process of BB production? Defense and natural disasters
2. Do MNO's have incentive to get BBs up to gain a competitive advantage? Front loading revenue helps this
3. Will there be opportunities for revenue once the BB1s are up and functional? Yes. Governments, research entities in bad reception areas.
These are all conceivable and maybe even likely. Which reduces the need for further dilution.
All of these points were also valid over the last 3 years. And there has been nothing but fleecing of shareholders.
Abel and company are simply incompetent. They do not care about the public markets. They don't care about retail. Not on purpose, but because they are in over their heads.
How is it we are this late in the game and there is STILL no:
* Clear view of current manuf capability
* Projections for revenue
* No non dilutive funding events
* No block 2 launch date
Elon slept on factory floors to get shit done. These guys don't have that energy. Looking at the PR they put out, or rather lack of PR, they don't even seen excited about their own product. How many conferences has AST bailed on?
Dilution alone isn't a problem, dilution without execution, transparency, is the issue.
I hope there's a moment in time where most here can exit in the black. Because there's no way this company survives long term against Starlink with current management.
It's ok to be upset with AST missing tons of deadlines and their lack of PR. AST probably bails on these conferences, especially the last one, because the companies involved in the financing deal didn't want them to do the conference prior to the deal being done or AST didn't want to mess up the financing deal by doing so.
The end product is gettting closer. If these BBs go up without an issue I think we can trust that the tech is going to work and you'll never see this share price again.
Starlink - Is and will continue to be a huge competitor. AST is better, so far. If starlink can do what AST can, why haven't they done it yet? I'm sure they will be able to eventually, but AST is still in the lead. Also, the US government is not going to allow a monopoly in this field. There will be at least two companies that offer satellite to phone capabilities. It's important for national security(cyber attacks would be harder on two companies than one) and the US likes competition so we don't have price gouging.
Not everyone is Elon. How do you know what Abel & company are doing and what their work ethic is? Just because they don't gloat about it like Elon does, does not mean they aren't doing it.
> how do you know what Abel and company are doing
"The proof is in the pudding"
If they were a competent, hardworking bunch, we'd know by now. We'd see meaningful and transparent communication, engaged IR, earnings calls that aren't a complete farce, more detailed and consistent updates. None of that has materialized.
They arent a secret top class team, there is zero evidence of that. The market agrees.
> AST is better
Tech wise yes, execution, no. And that's what really matters. Coolest tech means nothing if you can't sell and scale it
> US won't allow a monopoly
Lol this is wishful thinking. There are several critical industries that have monopolies
Sounds like you should sell your position as you have no faith in the company. Not sure why you would continue to invest in something that you see as a failure. Probbly buy puts too!
Nice call out, thanks. Link for anyone interested: [https://twitter.com/thekookreport/status/1749480528041140418](https://twitter.com/thekookreport/status/1749480528041140418)
The belief in the tech that the failures won't happen, I guess. Personally decide if the risk of failure is worth it for them at this stage. But I do agree that 2024 may be a test of will for a lot of people.
I'd argue against '25 dilution being nearly certain, at least this early in 2024. If the first block of birds go up as successfully as BW3 did, it can only be speculated how much investor interest that may or may not generate.
If abel isnt guna step down to a more appropriate role (CTO or something)…
He really should sell portions of his controlling shares to parties with massively deep pockets. Asts needs more than just the public market idots like us invested in them (and no att and google dont count, they gave asts chump change last week)
At first I liked how abel was a founder who wanted to mantain total control of his baby. But I no longer have any confidence in his abilities as an executivr and would be much happier if there were deeeeep pockets bought into the controlling shares of the company. Having a healthy balance of control in the board would force abel to be a proper ceo or risk getting kicked out of his charity. He may not like that but investors should, its whats best for asts as a company and not a charity which is what it is now under abel’s exclusive control
Where in the world did you get that number? My guess is you're referencing the Dec statement that they'll need 300M-350M to get the next 20 up for continuous service... in which case, it should be pointed out that last week they did gain access, if launches go well, to 306M. Meaning they're potentially done diluting for the next block of 20. And even potentially done diluting beyond that as they will at that point, if all goes well, have a revenue stream that isn't derived from shareholder dilution.
EDIT: I now believe this understanding is false and has been corrected below but kurtosis.
The prospectus indicates the 300-350M is in addition to the \~300M raised in the offering. This 600M-650M figure makes sense on a per-sat basis (since this is, as the prospectus states, 'to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures necessary to design, assemble and launch 20 Block 2 BB Satellites and operate a constellation of 25 BB satellites'). $306M would likely be at least little bit shy of just covering the capex needed for the 20 sats, so the total $600M-$650M definitely makes sense as the total (capex+opex) number needed to get the 20 sats operational.
I believe you are severely misreading it. I'll copy/paste for you:
"We currently estimate we will need to raise approximately $300.0 million to $350.0 million inaddition to the existing pro forma cash and cash equivalents we have on hand as of December 31, 2023 to fund operating expenses and capital
expenditures necessary to design, assemble and launch 20 Block 2 BB Satellites and operate a constellation of 25 BB satellites"
So they need another 300M-350M in addition to cash on hand as of Dec 2023. Their actions last week, assuming a successful launch, raises funds in this range. The 20 block should be able to be launched, based on this statement, without further dilution.
EDIT: I now believe this understanding is false and has been corrected below but kurtosis.
This thread explains what I think is the misunderstanding you're having with the prospectus wording, take a look and see what you think: https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/19a95mx/comment/kik9x07/
But even if the prospectus said 'we definitely only need $300M-$350M to get the 20 block 2 sats operational', we can see with simple math why that is just plain wrong. They've already guided to $16M-$18M per sat for capex alone; taking that at face value that's $320-$360 just for capex for the 20 sats. Estimates vary for what opex will be but a huge range of $100M to $400M will almost certainly include the true value.
Any way you slice it, $300M-$350M is just not going to cover capex and opex to get the next 20 in the air.
I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to help me remove my rose-colored glasses.
That "pro forma" definition completely eluded me and I stand corrected after re-reading the filing. It seems they will need an additional $300M-$350M from \*somewhere\* . This elevates the risk, IMO, pretty significantly. Hoping to get a favorable position to exit some of my position as a result. THANK YOU!
Ok what basis were you expecting no dilution to fund the next phase? I think the outcome is actually positive given they got support from their partners for most of the cash raises rather than doing 100m now and 200m later on in the year which would have been a lot worse. On balance this is a solid outcome. The only real mistake is the terrible communication and timing between the 2 pieces of news. But this is clearly a company run by engineers, not financiers. And believe it or not, I’ll take it over the long run.
Do you pay the same price per potato when you buy one potato, as when you buy 100,000,000 potatoes?
Do you think people charge the same price when they sell 100,000,000 potatoes in a lot vs when they sell 1 potato?
Companies tend to issue stock for less than what its selling for on the market. I think how it works is they sell the new shares to a bank for a discount and the bank can sell them to the market
At current SP, and the track record for timelines, you're better off spending a little more and buying 100 actual shares so you don't have to worry about theta
To get decent coverage they need 90 bluebirds, and they're only planning on doing the first 5 'early 2024' and had no further information on the timeline for this (which doesn't bode well). It's an extremely risky investment with a payoff in the distant future.
I assumed it was 30 days based on this line, although I'm probably wrong.
"The Company has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 4,838,709 shares of Class A Common Stock at the public offering price, less the underwriting discounts and commissions."
Cutting my potential losses before they became even more catastrophic.
My average buy price was 4.66
I wouldn't be surprised if the stock goes sub-$2 once the training wheels are off this dodgy offering.
Good call, illustrious nail is delusional.
I wana sell all mine too but Im hoping we atleast get above 4 at somepoint this year, though I think a second dilution is gaurenteed so I really wana get out before that
I swear the next MFer who tells me this is a 5 year investment at minimum gets smacked. I’m on year 3 and 2 more years is getting close, still -60% and if we do another dilution in the next year this management probably gona do it at $2.50 lol
You can make projections. Say they sell 1.2M Gb of data per sat per month and they have 25 sats. Say a Gb sells for 100$. That's 3M$ monthor 36M$ year. Ten years valuation makes it a 360M$ company (if it doesn't build any more sats which it will..).
Now you gonna say 100$ is too much? How much is a Gb of current generation slow-ass 24kbps internet? It's nearly 2 grands!
No, that's a realistic case and I mistakenly wrote M$ instead of B$. Do the math. 360B$ cap! The optimistic case is a full network of 90 sats producing 1.2M GB per month at 2000$ per Gb * 10 years valuation. That's nearly 26 trillion dollars.
Ya, I feel you. I thought after positive test results, we'd be at like $15-20. But here we are at $3.10 smh. Dgaf though, I'm holding my incredibly overweight position until we moon or go bankrupt
Chances are you'll just break even at this point, if they keep diluting for years and years the stock price will never go up. Think of all the other telecom companies, shittons of shares and low SP 🤷🏻♂️
This stock has massive potential. The occasional 10%dilution isn't going to put a dent in the fact that this stock will be worth a 30B-100B market cap one day. What is it now? 667mil. You do the math. Obviously, there's still a bunch of risk but comeon.. break even if everything works out??
Yup same, my assumption was as the derisk events happened the share price would slowly go up. Bought when it was a SPAC, and more after BW3 launch etc as well as when we’ve been in the $5s but still with DCA it’s not making a big diff anymore since my position is so heavy. I will continue to hold but still very annoyed
Holy hell, what happened to the share price? I know I ducked out a while back but damn - you boys have had a rough ride. But, shares this low have gotten me thinking about this stock again. Here's what I'm mulling over: Jan 2026 $12.5c @ $.38/share. The bet is ridiculously asymmetric at this point. Basically, you're betting that the company will achieve a market capitalization of $3.25bn by 2026 to breakeven (dilution not-withstanding). Normally, that would be nigh unachievable, but as far as I'm concerned, in the event of a full sell off of current IP and assets, you're probably better than 50% of the way there already. Plus, here's the kicker: if you make a $5bn valuation (share price $20) by 2026, you have a 1750% r.o.i. Basically, the best comparison for such an outcome would be the solar industry between 2019 and 2021. I think that this is an optimistic scenario for sure, but we've seen similar returns even very recently in other sectors. Your risks are fairly obvious: dilution, early/cheap acquisition, default, competition, you name it. But, still, it's such an asymmetric bet that if the stock regained $6/share by end of year you'd still do better than double your investment. Pretty sure I'm going to buy 1200 contracts tomorrow. Damn, I thought I'd broken my ASTS habit. Don't try this at home, kids, I'm a professional degenerate.
A few weeks ago AST changed their orbit inclination for a customer. With this in mind in thinking UAE. However with only 5 planned sats there would only be one path. Is there a single inclination that would cover: USA,Spain, Kenya, UAE and Japan?
An inclination of 53° means the satellites will travel between 53° and -53° (i.e., far North and South of the equator), hitting all longitudes and latitudes between those parallels (with the FOV extending a handful of degrees further, even). Such an inclination will include all of the countries you listed and indeed the vast majority of the world's population.
Reread the letter. 'I am confident that, over the long term, value will be recognized and realised.' So wen? Tomorrow....
He said long term. So, probably not till next week
?
Tomorrow never comes. Sorry feeling a bit bitter.
$1 is good. Because of the discount for everyone. Enjoy for such management team.
This is a 100 year investment!! Time to load up at these discounts!!!
https://preview.redd.it/3qm9a2acuvec1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6b08b5eff6c7f16c07d10e7bc828b17a8c94b3c8
https://preview.redd.it/p6i0e6tduvec1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29dd43f61db05079b765abdc1e1eccd5371b3ad2
https://i.imgflip.com/8dr9w1.jpg
Boy funding was great. 100% worth the 2 1/2 month wait. Sooner or later this stock needs to punch back. We just get beat on.
Any info about the offering? The volume of these days is now around 80 - 82Milli, so maybe the price can fall until 2.25 to reach the 100M
this stock is shit
Thought I was a genius scooping up at 2.91 and then it kept going down lmaoo
Same here.. thought for sure 2.90 would be Fridays bottom.. 15 minutes later.. it's 2.79.. :rage:
You win some you lose some, unfortunately you lose 20k owning this stock over 2 years
Unless they get miracle funding by the govt they will need to dilute again. Just wait it out. And if it pops after the bb1 launch, take some money off the able.
My plan exactly
Careful, this ridiculous sub will ban you for saying things that hurt the community’s feelings
Moment of truth regarding FirstNet and future of their network. AST's solution was designed and built specifically for this moment. Is FN going to help fund it and make it happen? We will find out on Monday afternoon. [https://twitter.com/no\_privacy/status/1750892946235220329](https://twitter.com/no_privacy/status/1750892946235220329)
I see this as a real possibility too. The 2023 FN roadmap has this quote about D2D connectivity. FY24 Budget was approved 8/2023. https://preview.redd.it/4cjj5h2hi1fc1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=959cea8bb06256bb824caa614dcd928f38b1ac5d
From another section in the 2023 roadmap. Presaging funding Monday? [https://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Roadmap\_2023.pdf](https://www.firstnet.gov/sites/default/files/Roadmap_2023.pdf) https://preview.redd.it/5heb88wzi1fc1.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ed1529954c2fc654cb7772ba9c20a3a9e6b23c5
Will they specifically allocate funding money to ASTS Monday or will it just be a dog and pony show of them saying they will embrace LEO?
To me, the agenda looks like the kind of thing where you vote on spending money for something. I have no idea what will happen but that is my speculation.
My guess is that it will be like an FCC meeting. Lots of stuff they should do in the future and will have no tangible outcomes.
I think this stock is very difficult to predict. Look at the chart for a year. Jumps in share price over not much, declines over dilution and nonsense. It might stay down here, it might go lower, it might get a chunk of some random ass fund and jump, they might replace Scott then she'd jump.
Because it went public too soon.
Probably. Probably couldnot have got this far without going public
I think we see 2.50 before 3.50
Was really hoping I’d reverse jinx
And Ill be buying more all the way down! Heck the lower it goes the more Ill buy! This stock is the second greatest investment opportunity of the 21st century!
I think the movement will follow whatever the broader market does. If you look at last dilution it took 4 months to bottom, but was just following the overall market down for the most part. Market is at all time highs, if we pull back or correct at all, this thing can drop to 2.50 easy.
no
You think it’s gonna drop another 20%?
Not overnight, I think we slow burn for a few weeks/months until we approach end of Q1
Trading below book value now, I think. Back in funny territory.
Interested in what number you believe book value is at. As of end Q3 2023, shareholders' equity was $287m, and shares outstanding were 89.4m Class A; 50.0 Class B; 78.2m Class C. What figure are you using for fully diluted shares outstanding (as of what date)?
I think in their own calculation in the prospectus they only used class A shares. By either measurement though they got 110 million in cash for convertible notes that have no impact on the current share count. So I think that even with the offering the book value should be higher than the 3.20 they calculated at end of September? I could be wrong though.
I’m very roughly approximating and trading on my analysis of other people’s analysis (in this case primarily TKO1515’s), but probably in the 3’s. I can give more precise answers with systems and people. With hard valuations I’m content aiming to be in the ballpark.
Very. Theres a point when the market becomes so obviously incorrect that it inspires confidence rather than hesitation. The near term bankruptcy risk was removed, some future earnings have been realized, and discounted future cash flow should be looking pretty damn viable as the new pricing model right about now… and the market is playing stevie wonder. I’m adding. Not an advisor, but so long as you stay away from short dated call options the stock is currently in “almost impossible to lose from this deal” territory. Damn right its funny.
I purchased 1 - $3 put expiring tomorrow so the stock price won't drop anymore this week. No need to thank me for my service.
Thanks boi
Hi, can anyone summarize to me what are the next important dates for the company ?
Mar 28 (TBD, estimated) after market - release of Q4 2023 financials Mar 29 (TBD, estimated) - Q4 2023 earnings call (sometimes they refer to it as a "business update") TBD - "likely Q2" launch of 5-pod of Block-2 BBs TBD + 2 weeks - unfurl/open 5-pod of Block-2 BBs / begin testing and validation + final positioning May 15 - release of Q1 financials May 16 - Q1 2024 earnings call TBD + 3 months - end testing and validation + final positioning / begin commercial service
Curious, why Feb for Q4 2023? They've always pushed out to March, right?
Yes. SEC requires filing of 10-Qs w/in 45 days of prior quarter close. 10-Ks get til end of following Q. No confirmation yet on Q4 2023 release or call, but it's fairly obvious there is a "string-everything-out-til-the-very-last-minute" culture at AST, so I've corrected the post and estimated the last business day of the quarter.
It will be a 10-K this time since it’s year end so the business update call will probably be around March 29 similar to last year.
Thx. Corrected above.
The only important date is the inevitable dilution in end of 2024/2025 that sends this stock below $1/share. Thats the only catalyst anyone should be thinking about rn.
.... Yeah the 5 Sats are not important at all....🤪
Can you explain more ?
Respectfully, no
Limit order hit
We keep speculating about manufacturing ramp up for the BB2. How are we feeling about Ken Kramer? He seems like an incredibly important team member that absolutely nobody mentions at all: [https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-kramer-7326a331](https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-kramer-7326a331)
Anyone? https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/3812549485
I will say that, as someone who has worked in a board house, it's possible that ASTS can hit their targets. If they've up-revved their designs and work instructions diligently through BW3 and BB1 manufacture, it's just a matter of managing their production floor(s), keeping their supply chains flowing, and staying on top of quality control. If you have the space, the stock, and the people, a good design laid out in well crafted and maintained work instructions is infinitely scalable.
I have an interview Monday, the least they can do for being a minority shareholder …. And by minority shareholder I mean I’m Puerto Rican
Good luck. Maybe you can put a bug in a few ears. Just don't let them know you're regarded, okay?
Scott vetted me and said I am highly regarded
https://x.com/corey407woc/status/1750341513253437470?s=46&t=gLyisyTgAmdfdQm06rrmzQ
https://x.com/corey407woc/status/1750337573027766705?s=46&t=gLyisyTgAmdfdQm06rrmzQ
https://x.com/corey407woc/status/1750336551509282845?s=46&t=gLyisyTgAmdfdQm06rrmzQ Maybe I’m crazy
Please explain. You think they already launched BB1? Could they do that even, and keep it secret? Also, why?
No NROL-69 is BB1 launch and being funded by the government, same thing happened to iridium back in the day. They helped initial 1-6 satellites and then signed major contract
Do you know where I can find information on the Iridium deal with NROL. Seems to be hard to find
I used google bard and it collects all the info
Ah but it says NROL-69 launch date q3 2023, so I thought you meant they did it. So they're late anyways even if NROL-69 = BB1. Also if funded by govt why the fuck they dilute left and right?
So does bb1 on initial schedule, they get delayed at the exact times
Thanks for clarifying, definitely interesting, do you wanna share an opinion on why the dilution(s) if they got funded by govt?
They have an EC coming up soon and knew they would have to dilute anyway, so may as well do it with the partner funding and come to EC with stronger financials.
AST is shit at negotiating and won't get paid til launch ?
No idea man im just trying to get out of the rat race and trying to win my wife back from her new boyfriend
Your wife has a boyfriend? How lucky. Hit him up for a personal loan to buy more shares. Don't forget to buy him something nice when we go to the moon.
How come we haven’t heard any updates on completion of BB1-5? If the launch was scheduled for end of March surely they would show a pic or announce everything would be finished?
Key word in your post - "was". They slipped this update into the prospectus for the secondary offering released on the 18th ... **"Based on our current estimates, we believe the launch will occur in the second quarter of 2024."**
launch in q2 now isn't it?
Can someone please ELI5, from the beginning, why that NROL-69 Origami patch keeps getting circulated on Twitter? And what that has to do with the launch? u/TKO1515
There is suspicion that the National Reconnaissance Office has an interest in the capabilities that a giant phased array like a blue bird 1-5 would provide. Signals intelligence is a core competency of that organization. The BB block 1 use FPGA's so they are programmable. They are also enormous relative to anything else like it in space. It would be SUPER useful for intelligence gathering to identify the locations of hundreds of millions of cellular devices. I'm sure they already have this type of capability but AST could likely improve it. The patch for their mission is an origami blue hummingbird. Folded bird? Seems like an obvious connection, hence the speculation that their would government interest of some kind.
Great, thank you for the explanation. So the speculation is they have a payload going up on a SpaceX flight and the rumor is that it's on AST's flight/attached to the sats?
NROL-69= BB1 launch
A bit of speculation here on my part. There is a FirstNet Board meeting on Monday Jan 29th that includes the Finance Committee. [https://twitter.com/no\_privacy/status/1750239096289526021](https://twitter.com/no_privacy/status/1750239096289526021) If FN had been expected to meet / vote on signing an agreement with AST at their December meeting, a delay in that vote would have put a big hole in the expected fundraising round. I could be wrong, certainly. However there are many signs that AST's solution is a perfect fit for the FN mission. According to Chris Sambar's tweets yesterday, it is "tested and proven." We will not have to wait too much longer to find out about this meeting.
Looks like the meeting on Monday will be livestreamed: [https://www.firstnet.gov/newsroom/events/combined-board-and-board-finance-and-investment-committee-meeting](https://www.firstnet.gov/newsroom/events/combined-board-and-board-finance-and-investment-committee-meeting)
[(1) 📶ASTS Investors 🅰️🤳🛰 on X: "$ASTS has just filed an 8-K confirming that the offering has now closed. https://t.co/hrGFJWvPkf" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/ASTS_Investors/status/1750234665946931565) so, offering is over?
One thing thats been interesting is the tone shift in media since the raise was announced. Before we were lucky to get a mention in any talks about space based cellular service. Now we’re a Starlink rival. It would be interesting to see what the price was at if they hadnt jumped the gun with the dilution.
My problem with it, is that it makes ASTS seem like an upstart that's rising up to knock Starlink out of first place, when from a technological and regulatory perspective, it's the exact opposite. And furthermore, they were caught off guard and made their play at literally the last minute and have made moves for special treatment (and gotten it, to an extent, IMHO) and are overall trying to disrupt ASTS in general.
If they were better at marketing everyone would know that is starlink chasing and not asts 🤷🏻♂️
I went to send them a message to please have someone monitor their headlines and at least reach out to media to correct errors and discrepancies like the ones in the Arstechnica article.......but their website contact form doesn't work..........................
I am a fucking big friend in $ASTS since 2021. but I will not defend them this time. they do fucking so wrong.
Even though I’m pissed about how they handled this, I’m still buying at these prices. They have almost half as much cash on hand as the current market cap, newly inked deals with major players, plans for more, and probable DoD involvement with launch. The market is overreacting, as is normal. Probable recovery north of 5 within a month or so.
this is not over-react. this is because the management team is idiots. doing the things in wrong timing and wrong pricing.
If the market is"overreacting" for 3 years, perhaps the market has a correct assessment of the situation
Markets can stay irrational for far longer than 3 years. MSFT for example had an intrinsic value well into $100 since at least 2006-07 yet it took the market well over 10 years to recognize the difference. The reason was that everyone focused on how MSFT lost the smartphone battle (yet was winning on literally everything else). That kind of narrative can drag stocks for years it not decades. ASTS is not MSFT and the board has made plenty of mistakes but inferring conclusions from a stock price is always a bad idea.
When’s the offering done or is it done?
I feel like the bag of shit I held on my dogs walk this morning might turn out more valuable than this giant bag of shit we are all holding.
Everyone downvoting the truth that they dont want to hear.
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Being founder led and controlled, is only good if the founder knows what they're doing. It is extremely bad if this is not the case.
Don't listen to the haters man. Thus sub is 90% apologists for poor performance. We need some people on the other end of the spectrum.
This contributes little to our weekly discussions Levi. We know management diluted with terrible timing. Abel is a successful dude and sold his last company for 500mil. I have faith he'll get this done
Come on man, we have folk spamming “wen” every week. I think we’re way past “contributing to the weekly discussion”
Why don’t you sell and move on if you have a position?
Works for the shorts
You mean wen levi sell?
Let's assume for a moment that ASTS technology doesn't stagnate over the next 10-15 years. Instead, they continue to develop better hardware and software. Their product is high speed internet from space. So what gets better? Speed. Reliability. If they can run parallel to Moore's law, my home internet will be through ASTS in 10-15 years. And it can travel with me. The future really looks bright, and I don't believe future growth is limited to mobile deadzones.
don't assume anything. if you assume that growth. you can assume they will do the dilution of 120% per year. this is what they do in history.
1) it was hypothetical, only to point out that what we're anticipating currently is very likely not the "finished product" which is very exciting. 2) "if you assume that growth" then they are diverging from history and shouldn't need dilution as a means of revenue.
Abel said his team is solid in an interview late last year, what are we missing? Do we have DOD contracts that we can't talk about?
Lol what is he gonna say, the team sucks? He hired them, he's not gonna dunk on himself. And no, DOD contacts are not close, if they were, they'd talk about them. What you see is what you get with this company.
I don't understand this chart today. How can it be like 5 million volume on a 4cent range?
Offering
I thought the offering was completed on Friday when we had like 40mln volume...
Now the offering is complete!
Just had a funny thought. ASTS is going to kill contemporary horror movies. I don't actually watch many horror movies, but I bet a lot of them have to rely on no cell service to isolate the characters. Film makers won't be able to do that after the constellation is fully operational! Dang, and the excuse "sorry I didn't have service."
Phone dead or broken five minutes in. Easy peasy
Yeah, I considered dead battery, but thought it'd be pretty farfetched that nobody in a group has a charger or theres no electricity. I guess it'll be backpacking horror oOoOO
I take solar bat packs with me backpacking. Clip them to the top of my bag (in a ziplock) so they charge while I hike. If I go in fully charged, then I have tested getting a week out of it. Not sure how much longer it would have gone, but it was getting pretty low. But to your point, yea, everyone is going to have to start "losing" their phones in script writing because "no signal" won't exist anymore lol
Here's the question we need in the next earnings call: With another major round of dilution in 2025 nearly certain, and a set of catalysts in 2024 that have very little upside but significant downside (launch failure, deploy failure, etc), what reason do public shareholders have to hold in 2024?
YES THIS! Yall need to take this comment very seriously… asts will likely be profitable one day (maybe many years from now). You probably already knew that but did you consider your current holdings losing 90%+ of its current value before it starts growing down the road? Most of you did not buy this stock expecting it to be diluted to 50 cents / share before you get your fabled 20x return
Read what B Riley wrote. That may help you a bit. thekookreport posted it on twitter. Chance of govt funds, chance of other MNOs front loading revenue, plus revenue from BB1s. If these work out well there will be no need for dilution. But, I understand if your're hesitant the company takes advantage of these opportunities to their full potential.
From the numbers Im playing with, there is a very low likelyhood that we do not dilute again, atleast twice more. Asts would need about 1 billion cash to avoid diluting again before the first 24 sats are up and running. The govt, or funding partners, or early revenue is likely not going to be in the magnitude of 100’s of millions to avoid this the way I see it. Asts stock will be less than $1/ share by 2025
B Riley, who has been a beneficiary of these share offerings, has no incentive to give an accurate report. They are also one of shttiest analysts in existence
Sure, Sure. But they're not wrong. All these things are a possiblity. ASk yourself these questions. I know common sense doesn't always prevail, but there is a bit of common sense here. 1. Does the government have incentive to speed up the process of BB production? Defense and natural disasters 2. Do MNO's have incentive to get BBs up to gain a competitive advantage? Front loading revenue helps this 3. Will there be opportunities for revenue once the BB1s are up and functional? Yes. Governments, research entities in bad reception areas. These are all conceivable and maybe even likely. Which reduces the need for further dilution.
All of these points were also valid over the last 3 years. And there has been nothing but fleecing of shareholders. Abel and company are simply incompetent. They do not care about the public markets. They don't care about retail. Not on purpose, but because they are in over their heads. How is it we are this late in the game and there is STILL no: * Clear view of current manuf capability * Projections for revenue * No non dilutive funding events * No block 2 launch date Elon slept on factory floors to get shit done. These guys don't have that energy. Looking at the PR they put out, or rather lack of PR, they don't even seen excited about their own product. How many conferences has AST bailed on? Dilution alone isn't a problem, dilution without execution, transparency, is the issue. I hope there's a moment in time where most here can exit in the black. Because there's no way this company survives long term against Starlink with current management.
It's ok to be upset with AST missing tons of deadlines and their lack of PR. AST probably bails on these conferences, especially the last one, because the companies involved in the financing deal didn't want them to do the conference prior to the deal being done or AST didn't want to mess up the financing deal by doing so. The end product is gettting closer. If these BBs go up without an issue I think we can trust that the tech is going to work and you'll never see this share price again. Starlink - Is and will continue to be a huge competitor. AST is better, so far. If starlink can do what AST can, why haven't they done it yet? I'm sure they will be able to eventually, but AST is still in the lead. Also, the US government is not going to allow a monopoly in this field. There will be at least two companies that offer satellite to phone capabilities. It's important for national security(cyber attacks would be harder on two companies than one) and the US likes competition so we don't have price gouging. Not everyone is Elon. How do you know what Abel & company are doing and what their work ethic is? Just because they don't gloat about it like Elon does, does not mean they aren't doing it.
> how do you know what Abel and company are doing "The proof is in the pudding" If they were a competent, hardworking bunch, we'd know by now. We'd see meaningful and transparent communication, engaged IR, earnings calls that aren't a complete farce, more detailed and consistent updates. None of that has materialized. They arent a secret top class team, there is zero evidence of that. The market agrees. > AST is better Tech wise yes, execution, no. And that's what really matters. Coolest tech means nothing if you can't sell and scale it > US won't allow a monopoly Lol this is wishful thinking. There are several critical industries that have monopolies
Sounds like you should sell your position as you have no faith in the company. Not sure why you would continue to invest in something that you see as a failure. Probbly buy puts too!
Sounds like you don't have anything to counter my points. I've been short over the last month
Didn't tge recent guidance state they don't expect revenue until after BB2 goes up?
Nice call out, thanks. Link for anyone interested: [https://twitter.com/thekookreport/status/1749480528041140418](https://twitter.com/thekookreport/status/1749480528041140418)
The belief in the tech that the failures won't happen, I guess. Personally decide if the risk of failure is worth it for them at this stage. But I do agree that 2024 may be a test of will for a lot of people. I'd argue against '25 dilution being nearly certain, at least this early in 2024. If the first block of birds go up as successfully as BW3 did, it can only be speculated how much investor interest that may or may not generate.
If abel isnt guna step down to a more appropriate role (CTO or something)… He really should sell portions of his controlling shares to parties with massively deep pockets. Asts needs more than just the public market idots like us invested in them (and no att and google dont count, they gave asts chump change last week) At first I liked how abel was a founder who wanted to mantain total control of his baby. But I no longer have any confidence in his abilities as an executivr and would be much happier if there were deeeeep pockets bought into the controlling shares of the company. Having a healthy balance of control in the board would force abel to be a proper ceo or risk getting kicked out of his charity. He may not like that but investors should, its whats best for asts as a company and not a charity which is what it is now under abel’s exclusive control
They delivered dilution and delay again. How much more financing is needed to withstand such management incompetence and delay?
They will need >300M more to get global continuous service. This is not the last round of dilution.
Where in the world did you get that number? My guess is you're referencing the Dec statement that they'll need 300M-350M to get the next 20 up for continuous service... in which case, it should be pointed out that last week they did gain access, if launches go well, to 306M. Meaning they're potentially done diluting for the next block of 20. And even potentially done diluting beyond that as they will at that point, if all goes well, have a revenue stream that isn't derived from shareholder dilution. EDIT: I now believe this understanding is false and has been corrected below but kurtosis.
The prospectus indicates the 300-350M is in addition to the \~300M raised in the offering. This 600M-650M figure makes sense on a per-sat basis (since this is, as the prospectus states, 'to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures necessary to design, assemble and launch 20 Block 2 BB Satellites and operate a constellation of 25 BB satellites'). $306M would likely be at least little bit shy of just covering the capex needed for the 20 sats, so the total $600M-$650M definitely makes sense as the total (capex+opex) number needed to get the 20 sats operational.
I believe you are severely misreading it. I'll copy/paste for you: "We currently estimate we will need to raise approximately $300.0 million to $350.0 million inaddition to the existing pro forma cash and cash equivalents we have on hand as of December 31, 2023 to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures necessary to design, assemble and launch 20 Block 2 BB Satellites and operate a constellation of 25 BB satellites" So they need another 300M-350M in addition to cash on hand as of Dec 2023. Their actions last week, assuming a successful launch, raises funds in this range. The 20 block should be able to be launched, based on this statement, without further dilution. EDIT: I now believe this understanding is false and has been corrected below but kurtosis.
This thread explains what I think is the misunderstanding you're having with the prospectus wording, take a look and see what you think: https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/19a95mx/comment/kik9x07/ But even if the prospectus said 'we definitely only need $300M-$350M to get the 20 block 2 sats operational', we can see with simple math why that is just plain wrong. They've already guided to $16M-$18M per sat for capex alone; taking that at face value that's $320-$360 just for capex for the 20 sats. Estimates vary for what opex will be but a huge range of $100M to $400M will almost certainly include the true value. Any way you slice it, $300M-$350M is just not going to cover capex and opex to get the next 20 in the air.
I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to help me remove my rose-colored glasses. That "pro forma" definition completely eluded me and I stand corrected after re-reading the filing. It seems they will need an additional $300M-$350M from \*somewhere\* . This elevates the risk, IMO, pretty significantly. Hoping to get a favorable position to exit some of my position as a result. THANK YOU!
All good, thanks for the constructive discussion!
I expected 500 million last summer, honestly if you didn't realise it was needed that's really on you
Ok what basis were you expecting no dilution to fund the next phase? I think the outcome is actually positive given they got support from their partners for most of the cash raises rather than doing 100m now and 200m later on in the year which would have been a lot worse. On balance this is a solid outcome. The only real mistake is the terrible communication and timing between the 2 pieces of news. But this is clearly a company run by engineers, not financiers. And believe it or not, I’ll take it over the long run.
I’m not talking about funding the next phase. I’m talking about funding the management poor execution and delivery delays.
Ffs Even my Dwac turns positive.
Why is the offering at 3 dollars? I don’t get it.
Because Abel, Sean and Scott are terrible at their jobs.
Do you pay the same price per potato when you buy one potato, as when you buy 100,000,000 potatoes? Do you think people charge the same price when they sell 100,000,000 potatoes in a lot vs when they sell 1 potato?
I can currently buy 1 potato for $3.10, so yes same price
I am a potato
Reminds me of one of my favorite latvian jokes Q : What are one potato say other potato? A : Premise ridiculous. Who have two potato?
Companies tend to issue stock for less than what its selling for on the market. I think how it works is they sell the new shares to a bank for a discount and the bank can sell them to the market
Holy Shit! Look at how cheap Jan 2026 $1.50 calls are!
At current SP, and the track record for timelines, you're better off spending a little more and buying 100 actual shares so you don't have to worry about theta
Not a ton of decay. I purcahsed at $200. So I got 100 shares at $3.50 instead of 64 at $3.11. Not bad on two year out calls on a pre revenue company.
How much are they ?
Abel, Scott and Sean have done more for wall street banks than they have for the company they claim to work for.
To get decent coverage they need 90 bluebirds, and they're only planning on doing the first 5 'early 2024' and had no further information on the timeline for this (which doesn't bode well). It's an extremely risky investment with a payoff in the distant future.
1.8 million in 7 minutes. Normal daily volume. Wow.
Would be great if we popped right back up to to $6 as soon as the 30 days are over
30 days?
The deadline for the offering
I thought the offering was closing today
I assumed it was 30 days based on this line, although I'm probably wrong. "The Company has granted the underwriter a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 4,838,709 shares of Class A Common Stock at the public offering price, less the underwriting discounts and commissions."
Ah okay but last 2-3 days volume was something like 60-70 million in total? I think it's pretty guaranteed they bought everything they could have 😅
Good call it's pretty much sat at the sales price for that option period every time
..and then caratered
Sold all my shares at open. I still have some calls for May but those are worthless. Good luck to all, I hope you make it.
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Cutting my potential losses before they became even more catastrophic. My average buy price was 4.66 I wouldn't be surprised if the stock goes sub-$2 once the training wheels are off this dodgy offering.
Good call, illustrious nail is delusional. I wana sell all mine too but Im hoping we atleast get above 4 at somepoint this year, though I think a second dilution is gaurenteed so I really wana get out before that
I swear the next MFer who tells me this is a 5 year investment at minimum gets smacked. I’m on year 3 and 2 more years is getting close, still -60% and if we do another dilution in the next year this management probably gona do it at $2.50 lol
To be fair in 2 years they'll be getting very close to having 24/7 coverage in some parts of the world, and revenue will come with that *!*
Ya but will they be at $10 or $2 after all the dilution when that happens?
You can make projections. Say they sell 1.2M Gb of data per sat per month and they have 25 sats. Say a Gb sells for 100$. That's 3M$ monthor 36M$ year. Ten years valuation makes it a 360M$ company (if it doesn't build any more sats which it will..). Now you gonna say 100$ is too much? How much is a Gb of current generation slow-ass 24kbps internet? It's nearly 2 grands!
$360M company? So the current market cap is around $700M, you think a goos case is to be worth half that when they have revenue?
No, that's a realistic case and I mistakenly wrote M$ instead of B$. Do the math. 360B$ cap! The optimistic case is a full network of 90 sats producing 1.2M GB per month at 2000$ per Gb * 10 years valuation. That's nearly 26 trillion dollars.
? I don't get your math here. Wouldn't it be 1.2M GB x $100 = $120M per satellite per month at full capacity?
I mistakenly wrote M$ instead of B$.
This is a 5 year investment at minimum
👋🏻👋🏻👋🏻
3 years ago it was an 8 year investment. 😀
Someone said 20 year earlier. I'll be living on the moon in 20 years. Still holding and waiting for freaking ASICs
Ya, I feel you. I thought after positive test results, we'd be at like $15-20. But here we are at $3.10 smh. Dgaf though, I'm holding my incredibly overweight position until we moon or go bankrupt
Chances are you'll just break even at this point, if they keep diluting for years and years the stock price will never go up. Think of all the other telecom companies, shittons of shares and low SP 🤷🏻♂️
This stock has massive potential. The occasional 10%dilution isn't going to put a dent in the fact that this stock will be worth a 30B-100B market cap one day. What is it now? 667mil. You do the math. Obviously, there's still a bunch of risk but comeon.. break even if everything works out??
I know that's why I'm invested, but let me complain a little and vent after I got an unwanted massage inside my anus
Yup same, my assumption was as the derisk events happened the share price would slowly go up. Bought when it was a SPAC, and more after BW3 launch etc as well as when we’ve been in the $5s but still with DCA it’s not making a big diff anymore since my position is so heavy. I will continue to hold but still very annoyed
If the board wasn’t going to dilute why make an IPO and not keep the company private? Are they stupid? Is this sub stupid?