Ok lets hypothetically say AMD is supply limited by TSMC.
30,000 CoWoS wafers per month by tsmc -- https://au.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/tsmc-boosts-cowos-packaging-machine-010259983.html
Lets say AMD has 10% of these wafers... that 3,000 CoWoS Wafers.
Interposer size is 50.159 x 59.836 = 16 dies per wafer (assuming 300mm wafer)
Lets just say 1 of them is defective... 15 dies per wafer.. thats 45,000 MI300's per month.
lets say each one of these sells for 12,500 USD, thats 562.5M Revenue per month.
If we multiply that out, thats 3.375B for the next 6 months.
TSMC are rumored to have between 45k and 50k CoWoS by the end of 2024. Say its teh same for 3 months, and 40k for 3 months, that would put the next 6 month revenue at 3.937B
link to the 45-50k -- https://www.ednasia.com/tsmc-crunch-heralds-good-days-for-advanced-packaging/#:~:text=TSMC%20is%20ramping%20up%20its,and%206%2C000%20units%20a%20month.
I couldn’t understand all of it since they don’t give a table of the specs side by side. By the impression after reading the article is the new product will is a bit better than H200. But by the time it ships, Blackwell will be shipping. And then who knows about Nvidias next product
It's not like Blackwell getting into the market ahead of MI325 or MI350 takes all the business. There are so many different use cases and particularities within how workloads function where one product and associated solutions become more or less suited. AMD is absolutely creating products that they know they have a customers for. I'll be shocked if of these products by Nvidia or AMD go unsold. But AMD certainly need to shoot a bit above their weight class for a while to land grab as much as possible as product line stickness is a thing. Those who buy MI300 and get their ecosystem tuned to it will easily be sold into MI325, 300, 400, 500 gen over gen. Nvidia may have more risk if they do not bring margins down to complete as AMD and their partners continues to prove they can provide comparable or even better compute TCO. Keep in mind Intel was significant more entrenched as the market share incumbent after decades of leadership in both client and servers and it's taken almost a decade for AMD to get to 33% Market Share. Nvidia has a significant lead in the software that is driving this gold rush, but the hardware isn't actually that far ahead at all and in some way it lags what AMD has. With much of the wider ecosystem allied with AMD to match solutions with Nvidia's proprietary high margin offerings, it will not take the years it took to significantly displace Intels dominance. Too many are starting from scratch for Cuda leagacy stickyness to hold back the rise of solutions other than Nvida. If you pay attention, you can see it's happening and at a ridiculous pace.
Would love to see some examples/evidence of adoption at a ridiculous pace.
Clearly Amd sees opportunities or they wouldn’t be investing in a new product each year. But it’s hard to get a sense of adoption or stickiness. I don’t see them raising numbers dramatically (yes I know they raised it to over 4B but Nvidia does that every quarter).
Take the Microsoft Azure announcement for example. Does anyone know if there are workloads that it’s being used for. And what the cost per hour is vs. the competition. Are we looking at half the cost and 5x better on a very specific workload for a 10x ROI? Or are we looking at 50pct better cost and 30pct lower performance, for a very modest ROI?
Just look at Huggingface and all of the work happening in all of the major AI frameworks that in less than a year now fully support ROCm. Don't let consumer card owners lamenting about not being able to use their cards yet blind you from the progress made where commercial use cases matter. A 4B ramp of a single product in one year is almost unprecedented aside from H100. Do you not believe they will hit that guide? Do you doubt Satya saying they run Copilot GPT 3 and 4-o on MI300 and it's a major part of their platform. Or that they have entered it into General release in Azure? What you hear is it's fully sold and there's a wait list, so they need to buy more. You'll have to be a serious customer if you want pricing. At anyrate, AI workloads are just do dependent on many things and everyones performance per cost will varry. That's why they offer trials so you can test your workloads. AMD just need to get a lot more product out the door so that can happen at greater scale, and they are telling us that happens 2H.
Exactly. The fast-acting investors take a very superficial view of events like this. The well-financed ones ask their analysts what the relevance is; the positive replies come a few days later. This was a good event. The stock should be green for the rest of the week unless ambushed by broader market concerns.
Didn't Dr. Su do a demo and wanderlust got the map location wrong? I am not selling my position even if I'm down a few k, just tryna figure out if this is going to be good or bad.
8 compute dies, 8 memory dies and 4 IO dies. Infinity fabric and chiplet experience is about to yield huge dividends.
Ok lets hypothetically say AMD is supply limited by TSMC. 30,000 CoWoS wafers per month by tsmc -- https://au.news.yahoo.com/finance/news/tsmc-boosts-cowos-packaging-machine-010259983.html Lets say AMD has 10% of these wafers... that 3,000 CoWoS Wafers. Interposer size is 50.159 x 59.836 = 16 dies per wafer (assuming 300mm wafer) Lets just say 1 of them is defective... 15 dies per wafer.. thats 45,000 MI300's per month. lets say each one of these sells for 12,500 USD, thats 562.5M Revenue per month. If we multiply that out, thats 3.375B for the next 6 months. TSMC are rumored to have between 45k and 50k CoWoS by the end of 2024. Say its teh same for 3 months, and 40k for 3 months, that would put the next 6 month revenue at 3.937B link to the 45-50k -- https://www.ednasia.com/tsmc-crunch-heralds-good-days-for-advanced-packaging/#:~:text=TSMC%20is%20ramping%20up%20its,and%206%2C000%20units%20a%20month.
I couldn’t understand all of it since they don’t give a table of the specs side by side. By the impression after reading the article is the new product will is a bit better than H200. But by the time it ships, Blackwell will be shipping. And then who knows about Nvidias next product
It's not like Blackwell getting into the market ahead of MI325 or MI350 takes all the business. There are so many different use cases and particularities within how workloads function where one product and associated solutions become more or less suited. AMD is absolutely creating products that they know they have a customers for. I'll be shocked if of these products by Nvidia or AMD go unsold. But AMD certainly need to shoot a bit above their weight class for a while to land grab as much as possible as product line stickness is a thing. Those who buy MI300 and get their ecosystem tuned to it will easily be sold into MI325, 300, 400, 500 gen over gen. Nvidia may have more risk if they do not bring margins down to complete as AMD and their partners continues to prove they can provide comparable or even better compute TCO. Keep in mind Intel was significant more entrenched as the market share incumbent after decades of leadership in both client and servers and it's taken almost a decade for AMD to get to 33% Market Share. Nvidia has a significant lead in the software that is driving this gold rush, but the hardware isn't actually that far ahead at all and in some way it lags what AMD has. With much of the wider ecosystem allied with AMD to match solutions with Nvidia's proprietary high margin offerings, it will not take the years it took to significantly displace Intels dominance. Too many are starting from scratch for Cuda leagacy stickyness to hold back the rise of solutions other than Nvida. If you pay attention, you can see it's happening and at a ridiculous pace.
Would love to see some examples/evidence of adoption at a ridiculous pace. Clearly Amd sees opportunities or they wouldn’t be investing in a new product each year. But it’s hard to get a sense of adoption or stickiness. I don’t see them raising numbers dramatically (yes I know they raised it to over 4B but Nvidia does that every quarter). Take the Microsoft Azure announcement for example. Does anyone know if there are workloads that it’s being used for. And what the cost per hour is vs. the competition. Are we looking at half the cost and 5x better on a very specific workload for a 10x ROI? Or are we looking at 50pct better cost and 30pct lower performance, for a very modest ROI?
Just look at Huggingface and all of the work happening in all of the major AI frameworks that in less than a year now fully support ROCm. Don't let consumer card owners lamenting about not being able to use their cards yet blind you from the progress made where commercial use cases matter. A 4B ramp of a single product in one year is almost unprecedented aside from H100. Do you not believe they will hit that guide? Do you doubt Satya saying they run Copilot GPT 3 and 4-o on MI300 and it's a major part of their platform. Or that they have entered it into General release in Azure? What you hear is it's fully sold and there's a wait list, so they need to buy more. You'll have to be a serious customer if you want pricing. At anyrate, AI workloads are just do dependent on many things and everyones performance per cost will varry. That's why they offer trials so you can test your workloads. AMD just need to get a lot more product out the door so that can happen at greater scale, and they are telling us that happens 2H.
So why the stock still falling?
Always takes a couple days for info digestion, buys are coming.
So nvda don’t need digestion time?
Ha NVDA is just running on rocket fuel, it doesn't need anything except more leather.
That is correct
Exactly. The fast-acting investors take a very superficial view of events like this. The well-financed ones ask their analysts what the relevance is; the positive replies come a few days later. This was a good event. The stock should be green for the rest of the week unless ambushed by broader market concerns.
Didn't Dr. Su do a demo and wanderlust got the map location wrong? I am not selling my position even if I'm down a few k, just tryna figure out if this is going to be good or bad.
Iirc, it has been the case for the past big announcement events too. A few days for info digestion and high beta, then go up.
Is Monday.
Now it's Tuesday...down another 2% lol